In the first half of 2023, the domestic market of Lithium hydroxide first declined and then rose, and the overall trend was sluggish. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of domestic industrial Lithium hydroxide enterprises was 553333.31 yuan/ton on January 1, 2023, and the average price of domestic industrial Lithium hydroxide enterprises was 332500.00 yuan/ton as of June 30. The market fell 39.91% in half a year, 29.75% lower than the same period last year.

According to the monthly rise and fall chart of Lithium hydroxide from January to June 2023, the monthly price of Lithium hydroxide in the first half of 2023 has a small rise, a large decline and an overall decline. The market situation rose in May and June, while other months fell. The largest decline was in April (29.93%) and the largest increase was in May (18.45%).

Price decline stage (January April): the decline of upstream Lithium carbonate prices dragged down the weak downstream demand, with a 53.46% decline from January to April

In January, the upstream Lithium carbonate operated weakly, which weakened the support for the Lithium hydroxide market, and the domestic downstream purchase intention was not high. The deal was mainly just needed, and the price of Lithium hydroxide fell slightly. In February, the upstream Lithium carbonate price fell, dragging down the market mentality. In addition, the domestic demand was weak, and the actual market transactions were limited. Most of them were low price orders. The focus of Lithium hydroxide negotiations was weak. In March, the downtrend of upstream Lithium carbonate continued, and the support for Lithium hydroxide weakened again. The manufacturers mainly delivered long-term orders, and the market buying atmosphere was depressed. Under the mentality of downstream enterprises buying up rather than buying down, the actual orders in the market were not good, and the market was weak. The downturn in the upstream Lithium carbonate market continued in the first half of April, with insufficient support for Lithium hydroxide, abundant market supply, weak demand, poor mentality of the industry, pressure on high market prices, and continued weak market.

Price rise stage (May June): the rise of Lithium carbonate price supports the rise of downstream procurement demand, and the rise of 29.13% in May June

In May, the upstream Lithium carbonate market rose mainly, and the Lithium hydroxide market was strongly supported. The manufacturers mainly executed long orders. The enthusiasm of downstream inquiry was slightly improved, the price mentality of the industry was strengthened, the enterprise quotation rose, and the Spot market was just in need of transactions. In the first ten days of June, the cost support continued, driving the price of Lithium hydroxide to keep up. The manufacturer mainly made long-term orders, and the downstream needs to follow up. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

In July, the domestic industrial Lithium hydroxide market was weak, the support from the upstream Lithium carbonate was insufficient, the downstream purchased on demand, and the trading atmosphere in the Spot market was light. Lithium hydroxide analysts from the business agency believed that the domestic Lithium hydroxide market was expected to be weak and stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the domestic market of imported Potassium chloride fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 2775.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2750.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.90%. On July 10, the Potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 87.30, unchanged from yesterday, 50.00% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 174.60 (2022-06-21), and 49.87% higher than the lowest point of 58.25 on August 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of domestic mainstream Potassium chloride dealers fell slightly this week.

From the downstream market of Potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate market fell slightly this week, from 7700.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7580.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 1.56%, and the price at the weekend fell 25.14% year on year. The price of Potassium nitrate market rose slightly this week, from 5425.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5525.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 1.84%, and the price at the weekend fell 26.70% year on year. On the whole, the downstream market of Potassium chloride fluctuated with each other, and the downstream customers’ demand for Potassium chloride was average.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The overall trend of Potassium chloride market in the middle and late July may fall in a narrow range, mainly finishing. Salt Lake and Zangger Potassium chloride prices were adjusted at a low level. The downstream market of Potassium chloride fluctuates with each other. The downstream demand is general, and the purchase of rigid demand is the main demand. International potassium fertilizer prices continue to decline. Potassium chloride analysts from the business agency believe that the domestic Potassium chloride import price may fall slightly in the short term.

Recent price trends of urea

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic urea market price has slightly increased this week, with urea prices rising from 2308.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2318.75 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.43%. Weekend prices fell by 19.15% year-on-year. On July 9th, the urea commodity index was 107.85, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.20% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 93.97% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Cost support is average, downstream demand is good, and urea supply is sufficient

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream prices of urea in China have fluctuated this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that there have been ups and downs in the urea upstream market this week. The price of liquefied natural gas has slightly decreased, from 4118.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3990.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 3.11%, and the weekend price has decreased by 31.04% year-on-year; The price of Anthracite was adjusted at a low level. This week, the price of Anthracite (washing block) in Yangquan was 920 yuan/ton; The price of liquid ammonia has significantly increased, rising from 2716.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2900.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 6.75%, and the weekend price has decreased by 31.06% year-on-year. Upstream raw material prices fluctuate, providing general support for urea prices. This week, the downstream melamine price of urea has stabilized at a low level, with a price of 6575.00 yuan/ton.

From a demand perspective: agricultural demand has increased, while industrial demand is average. The peak season for fertilizer use in summer has begun, leading to an increase in agricultural demand. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is average, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is normal. Board and melamine enterprises generally start construction and mainly purchase on demand. From a supply perspective, the daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, indicating sufficient supply.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

The domestic urea market may fluctuate slightly in mid to late July. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream market of urea has ups and downs, and the cost of urea is generally supported. The downstream agricultural peak season begins, with good agricultural demand and average industrial demand. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, with sufficient supply. In the future, urea may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 7, the average price of domestic industrial Lithium hydroxide enterprises was 330000.00 yuan/ton, 0.75% lower than the price on Monday.

The domestic industrial Lithium hydroxide market fell this week. Recently, the upstream Lithium carbonate price has shown a downward trend, weakening the support for the Lithium hydroxide market. The production enterprises are mainly based on long-term orders. The downstream material enterprises are not enthusiastic about purchasing high priced raw materials. The wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the market trading atmosphere is light, and the focus of Lithium hydroxide market negotiation has declined.

The upstream Lithium carbonate, according to the commodity market analysis system of the business community: on July 6, the reference price of Lithium carbonate industrial grade was 291000.00, a decrease of 2.35% compared with July 1 (298000.00); On July 6, the reference price of Lithium carbonate battery grade was 308600.00, a decrease of 1.22% compared with July 1 (312400.00).

Analysts from Lithium hydroxide business agency believe that the current market is not well supported, and the trading atmosphere is flat. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic Lithium hydroxide market will sort out and operate weak, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

On June 29th, the crude benzene commodity index was 85.58, a decrease of 0.84 points from yesterday, a decrease of 35.09% from the cycle’s highest point of 131.84 points (2013-01-28), and an increase of 180.22% from the lowest point of 30.54 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the crude benzene market experienced a volatile trend in June 2023, with an overall downward trend. The domestic factory price of crude benzene was at 5776.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 5465 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decrease of 5.39%.

The crude oil market price range fluctuated in June, with international crude oil futures slightly rising as of the 29th. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.86 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.51 per barrel. On the one hand, from the perspective of the global economic situation, the Federal Reserve’s announcement of interest rate hikes has not yet ended and will not cut rates. Macroeconomic pressure is increasing, and the oil market is under pressure. On the other hand, OPEC+has announced two production cuts, coupled with the increase in China’s refining and processing volume, which has boosted international oil prices. The demand during the summer oil peak season has supported, and the international oil price market has been boosted. Overall, the crude oil market is still a long short game, with international oil prices maintaining fluctuations within the range.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has shown a positive trend in recent times, with a decline starting in mid April and falling for 9 consecutive weeks.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene decreased by 300 yuan/ton on June 13, 2023, and is currently at 6200 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 6250 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6200 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6063 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 6150 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 6200 yuan/ton.

In terms of industrial chain: In May, the pure benzene market overall declined, while crude oil and styrene prices were generally weak within the month, especially the decline in styrene market, dragging down the continuous decline of the pure benzene market. On June 13th, Sinopec lowered its listing price by 300 yuan/ton and implemented a price reduction of 6200 yuan/ton, which also had a certain impact on market sentiment. As the sentiment in the pure benzene market continues to decline, the overall industry chain has a low market mentality, while downstream and traders have a strong attitude towards price pressure, resulting in a continuous negative decline in the hydrogenation benzene and pure benzene markets during the month.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After entering 23 years, the price of crude benzene has been rising for four consecutive months, and has been declining continuously in May and June. The weekly K-bar chart of crude benzene shows that the crude benzene market has been mixed in recent times.

Although crude benzene is a coal chemical commodity, its price trend closely follows the fluctuations in the pure benzene market. In June, the overall decline of the pure benzene industry chain affected crude benzene, but due to the low start of coking enterprises, the supply of crude benzene is slightly tight, and coke prices are rising, crude benzene prices still have some resistance to decline. The decline in crude benzene is slightly smaller than that of pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene. In terms of supply, the operating rate of coking enterprises in June was around 75%, and the supply of crude benzene was slightly tight. The coking enterprises have a strong mentality of supporting prices. In terms of demand, the hydrogenation benzene market has recently seen low profits and a decline in overall operating rates, maintaining a strong demand for crude benzene. Overall, the recent trend of crude oil has been volatile, and its guidance on the market is not significant. At the end of June, some new hydrogen benzene enterprises were added for maintenance, and the market expects a slight decline in demand in the future. The tight supply of crude benzene has some resilience, but there is a lack of downstream demand support, and there may be a slight downward trend. In the future, the business agency predicts that the crude benzene market will be mainly stable, moderate, and weak in the near future.

Price trend

In June, the domestic PA6 market was plagued by a mix of bullish and bearish trends, with various spot prices showing mixed fluctuations. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of June 30th, the average factory price of PA6 in China was 13350 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.29% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

It can be seen from the figure above that the market price of Caprolactam rose first and then fell this month. In the early days, the price of pure benzene, the raw material, fluctuated slightly, and cost support was still acceptable. The spot supply of Caprolactam in the market decreased, and enterprises increased prices more often. The willingness of downstream replenishment increased, and the market price of Caprolactam was stable and good. In the second half of the year, cost support weakened, and Caprolactam followed suit. The current market supply pressure has eased, with downstream on-demand procurement being the main focus.

On the supply side:

This month, the overall load of PA6 production enterprises remained relatively stable, operating in a narrow range below 71%, and the market supply remained stable. There is a risk of inventory position continuing to rise, and the supplier’s support for spot goods is average, with factory pricing under pressure.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the load of the weaving and spinning industries has fluctuated. The actual trading is generally concentrated in low-end spot goods. The overall atmosphere of stocking on site is cautious, with no improvement in the situation of new orders. Buyers are resistant to high priced sources, and the overall demand for PA6 chips is average.

Future Market Forecast

This month, the PA6 market experienced a narrow range of fluctuations and weakened. The load of domestic polymerization plants is stable, and the supply remains sufficient. In terms of demand, it is average, and stocking tends towards low-priced sources. The price of Caprolactam weakened, and the support of PA6 cost side fell back. It is expected that the PA6 market may continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

Aluminum prices fluctuated sideways in June

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market on June 29, 2023 was 18566.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83% compared to the aluminum price of 18413.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (June 1).

In the long term, the current price is in the sideways range after a high price decline, and has been fluctuating in the range of 17500 to 19500 yuan/ton.

Overview of Fundamentals

Supply side: Yunnan Power Grid has fully relaxed the management scale of 419.4 kilowatts of load since June 17th. Yunnan Province has convened representatives of local aluminum factories to discuss and resume production from June 20th. The release of power load can support the start-up of approximately 1.3-14 million tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity. Some electrolytic cells have been restarted, but due to the impact of its own process, it will still take 1-3 months to increase production, and the pressure is expected to gradually reflect after July. At present, a few enterprises have started to power on and resume production. According to current information, it is expected that the first batch of production capacity to resume in the province will be around 1.1 million tons. Based on the distribution of load and the boost of market policies on the consumer end, the production capacity is expected to increase in the future. Last year, Yunnan stopped production of 2 million tons due to the impact of hydropower. If the news is true, it indicates that the process of resuming electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Yunnan is accelerating. But as the summer electricity peak approaches, the space for resuming production may be limited.

As of June 25th, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots reached 527000 tons, a decrease of 26000 tons compared to the beginning of the month and a decrease of 224000 tons compared to the same period in June 2022. The aluminum ingot factory warehouse has also undergone a small inventory reduction, and the overall inventory is still in the stage of inventory reduction. However, the pace of inventory reduction has significantly slowed down compared to May.

On the demand side: The weekly operating rate of downstream processing enterprises is expected to decrease month on month, and there may be no significant improvement near the off-season in the future.

Import and export: According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, from January to May, downstream aluminum profiles exported a total of 377100 tons, an increase of 3.03% year-on-year. Among them, the export volume of aluminum profiles in May was 820500 tons, an increase of 2.45% year-on-year and 1.77% month on month, with a slight increase compared to the same period in previous years.

In summary, aluminum ingot inventory is still at a historical low, and Yunnan production is expected to release. From a cost perspective, the support for aluminum oxide cost is weak, and it is currently in the stage of intensified long short game. In the future, it is expected that Qinghai will restrict electrolytic aluminum production due to the summer electricity peak, and Yunnan will continue to suffer from drought. It is expected that power supply will be tight this summer, which will have a negative impact on electrolytic aluminum production. It is expected to maintain a broad oscillation operation in the short term.

Weak stability of ethylene oxide prices in June

According to the data of the business society, the average price of ethylene oxide in the domestic Spot market will be 6000 yuan/ton on June 28, 2023, which will be the same as that at the beginning of the month; Compared to the beginning of the year, the price was 6800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.76%.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

The terminal demand is lower than expected, and the price center of the main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer has shifted downward. The production enthusiasm of polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer enterprises is not high, and the demand for ethylene oxide is weakened.

Market Interpretation

At the end of last month, large factories lowered their prices by 500 yuan/ton. In June, epoxy ethane basically maintained a horizontal operation of 6000 yuan/ton. At present, prices are relatively low, and some manufacturers have hit the cost line, facing increasing pressure to lose money. From the supply side perspective, in June, some ethylene oxide factories had passive production reductions or proactive load reduction to balance enterprise benefits. In addition, some production factories switched to producing ethylene glycol or adjusted their own usage ratio to alleviate production and sales pressure. On the demand side, the main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent still has significant losses, and the factory’s production enthusiasm is not high. On the other hand, downstream has entered a seasonal off-season, with limited consumption volume, and overall demand for ethylene oxide is not strong.

Overall, the supply and demand of ethylene oxide are weak, and the price is horizontally stagnant at a low level. From the perspective of cost, the domestic mainstream processes are divided into Naphtha, ethane/mixed alkane, external ethylene production, MTO route, etc; Among them, the Naphtha route accounts for about 49%, followed by ethane and ethylene production. The cost of ethylene production is relatively favorable, and the cost pressure on crude oil routes is relatively high.

In the short term, the cost support for ethylene oxide is weak, and the supply and demand pattern is also difficult to improve. It is expected that the price will continue the current trend, with weak fluctuations as the main trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda remained weak this week. On June 20th, the average market price in Shandong was 818 yuan/ton, while on June 27th, the average market price in Shandong was 792 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.18% and a decrease of 36.74% compared to the same period last year. On June 26th, the caustic soda commodity index was 115.40, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 56.53% from the cycle’s highest point of 265.47 points (2021-10-27), and an increase of 77.24% from the lowest point of 65.11 points on October 9th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda in China was weak this week. The current average market price in Shandong region is around 720-800 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for 32% liquid alkali in Hebei region is around 720-900 yuan/ton. This week, the overall price of caustic soda has declined, and currently, the supply of caustic soda enterprises is relatively sufficient. The short-term demand for downstream alumina is average, with more purchases made on demand and a supply-demand game. The price of caustic soda remains weak.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, in the 25th week of 2023 (6.19-6.23), there were 0 products that rose or fell in the chlor alkali industry price list, 2 products that fell, and 5 products that rose or fell to 0. The main commodities falling include caustic soda (-1.92%) and flake soda (-0.40%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.33%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been weak, and the overall supply is relatively sufficient. Downstream alumina still purchases more on demand in the near future. There is no favorable support, and the supply and demand game comprehensively predicts a weak operating market in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of 50% Potassium sulfate at the beginning of this month was 3500 yuan/ton, and the price of 50% Potassium sulfate at the end of this month was 3300 yuan/ton, down 5.71%.

Potassium sulfate price reference: enterprises in Shandong and Hebei: 52% powdered Potassium sulfate factory price reference 3200-3300 yuan/ton, 50% mainstream factory price reference 3100-3160 yuan/ton. Northeast enterprises: the ex factory quotation of 52% powdered Potassium sulfate is 3000-3080 yuan/ton.

In June, the domestic market demand for Potassium sulfate was general, and the price continued to the previous level. The shipment of Mannheim Potassium sulfate in some regions was relatively smooth, and the production and marketing balance was basically maintained. However, the demand in the southern market was still not strong, and the shipment was slightly difficult. At present, the operating rate of the main downstream compound fertilizer plants is low, and the summer market is basically over. The purchase of follow-up raw materials is relatively cautious, based on demand.

Prediction: The domestic potassium fertilizer market has light trading volume and currently lacks positive support. It is expected that the market price may be dominated by a weak consolidation trend.