According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic light rare earth market prices have been continuously falling recently. On December 11th, the rare earth index was 470 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 53.33% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 73.43% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

The domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium oxide, and praseodymium neodymium alloy have all declined, while the price of metallic praseodymium remains low; As of the 12th, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 552500 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 4.74%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 447500 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 5.29%; The price of neodymium oxide was 457500 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 5.18%; The price of neodymium metal is 582500 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 4.90%; The price of praseodymium metal is 600000 yuan/ton, and the weekly price trend is temporarily stable; The price of praseodymium oxide is 465000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 4.12%.

The domestic light rare earth market has been in a continuous decline, with limited transactions and few new orders recently. The purchasing willingness of enterprises is low, and the overall decline in the market is difficult to change. Recently, some companies have lowered their negative guarantee prices, putting pressure on metal spot transactions. Downstream magnetic material companies have a sluggish purchasing willingness, mainly focusing on consuming inventory. In addition, the procurement of waste recycling is not active, the overall support of the market is insufficient, and pessimism has intensified, resulting in a sustained decline in rare earth market prices. Some small and medium-sized manufacturers are struggling to survive, with prices of praseodymium neodymium metal still hanging upside down, poor transaction performance, and sluggish purchasing sentiment, leading to a decline in prices in the domestic light rare earth market.

According to statistics, the production of new energy vehicles in November 2023 was 1.074 million units, with sales of 1.026 million units, a year-on-year increase of 39.2% and 30%. From January to November 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 8.426 million and 8.34 million, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 34.5% and 36.7%, and a market share of 30.8%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles still provides support for the rare earth market.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth exports in November were 4205.8 tons; The cumulative total export volume of rare earths from China from January to November was 48867.7 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%. The corresponding increase in export volume supported the prices of some products, but poor domestic demand led to a sustained decline in the light rare earth market.

Market forecast: In the near future, the purchasing sentiment of magnetic material enterprises has been sluggish, and the situation of new orders is quiet. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will slightly decrease in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 7466.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7833.33 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 4.91%, and the weekend price increased by 26.01% year-on-year. On December 10th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 39.76, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 62.34% from the highest point in the cycle of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 32.01% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have seen a slight increase in their quotations this week, resulting in low inventory.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 7105.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6968.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.94%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.27% over the weekend. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly declined, and cost support has weakened. Due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market situation of new pentanediol has slightly declined, with the market price dropping from 9725.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9650.00 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.77%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.62% over the weekend. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, which has a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

In mid to late December, the trend of isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and decline. The downstream market for new pentanediol has slightly declined, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened. The upstream propylene market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic market price of ortho phthalic anhydride has slightly declined this week. As of the weekend, the quoted price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 7400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.17% from the beginning of the week price of 7487.5 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.20%.

Supply side: The device operates stably and the supply of goods is normal

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a current operating rate of over 60%. The supply of phthalic anhydride goods is relatively sufficient, coupled with normal production of naphthalene phthalic anhydride goods. The price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride fluctuates at a low level, which has correspondingly impacted the neighboring phthalic anhydride market, causing a slight decline in the phthalic anhydride market.

Cost side: Low prices of ortho benzene, insufficient cost support

This week, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene remained low. As of the weekend, the price of ortho benzene was 7500 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the price of 7500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. The supply of ortho benzene was normal, and the operation of on-site equipment was stable. This week, the crude oil price trend decreased, the mixed xylene price fell, and the raw material price fell. As a result, the domestic ortho benzene price remained low. The sluggish ortho benzene market brought a negative impact on the phthalic anhydride market, and the phthalic anhydride market price trend slightly declined.

Demand side: DOP market focuses on on-demand procurement

The downstream DOP market price has slightly increased, with a price of 11808 yuan/ton as of the weekend, an increase of 3.13% compared to the price of 11450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Domestic DOP enterprises have maintained their operations, and domestic DOP supply is normal. However, plasticizer enterprises are still operating at a loss, with plasticizer manufacturers operating at low loads and downstream demand being weak. The mainstream DOP price is 11800-11900 yuan/ton, and the downstream plasticizer price trend has slightly increased. The overall demand has not improved, and the purchase of phthalic anhydride is average, The market price of phthalic anhydride remained weak this week.

In the future, the crude oil price range has been fluctuating recently, and the price trend of ortho xylene has slightly declined and remained stable. However, the downstream plasticizer market has recently fallen, and the price of phthalic anhydride has reached its bottom. It is expected that the market price trend of ortho xylene will be mainly volatile in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China on December 1st was 5533 yuan/ton. On December 7th, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5433 yuan/ton. This week, the price of chlorinated paraffin decreased by 1.81%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of chlorinated paraffin has fallen this week. This week, the prices of raw material liquid wax and liquid chlorine have been lowered, resulting in insufficient cost support. At present, there is no significant improvement in the demand side of downstream procurement for essential needs. Manufacturers and distributors are mainly observing and adjusting prices flexibly. As of December 7th, the ex factory price of 52 environmentally friendly chlorinated paraffins in Anhui region is around 5600 yuan/ton, and the national standard market price of 52 chlorinated paraffins in Shandong region is around 5000-5500 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax has slightly decreased this week, and liquid wax fluctuates with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine has dropped this week. At present, the device is operating normally, and on-site trading is still acceptable, with transaction negotiations being the main focus.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s chlorinated paraffin analyst believes that the market for chlorinated paraffin raw materials has stabilized recently, with downstream on-demand procurement, weak market demand, and limited trading. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will remain stable in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to changes in cost and demand.

Aluminum fluoride prices plummeted this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 5th, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 11075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.12% from the price of aluminum fluoride at 11200 yuan/ton as of November 30th last month. From the end of November to early December, the resumption of work in aluminum fluoride enterprises increased, the supply of aluminum fluoride increased, and the bidding and procurement prices of large factories decreased. The ex factory prices of large aluminum fluoride factories such as polytetrafluoroethylene decreased by 500 yuan/ton. In addition, with the decrease in raw material prices, the cost of aluminum fluoride decreased, and the price of aluminum fluoride fluctuated and fell this week.

Reduced raw material costs

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 5th, the price of fluorite was 3612.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.36% compared to the price of 3700 yuan/ton on November 27th. As of December 5th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 10750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.30% from the quoted price of 11066.67 yuan/ton on November 27th. The downstream demand for fluorite is sluggish, the fluorite market is weakening, and the price of fluorite is weak and falling. Downstream refrigerant manufacturers of hydrofluoric acid are operating at low loads, and downstream procurement of hydrofluoric acid is poor. In addition, the export of hydrofluoric acid is weak, resulting in a decrease in hydrofluoric acid prices. The prices of raw materials have fallen, and the cost of aluminum fluoride raw materials has decreased.

Market Overview and Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society’s aluminum fluoride industry, prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid have fluctuated and fallen, leading to a decrease in the cost of aluminum fluoride; At the beginning of the month, the bidding prices of large aluminum fluoride factories decreased, and the factory prices of aluminum fluoride enterprises such as polytetrafluoroethylene decreased by about 500 yuan/ton; As the stocking season approaches, the demand for aluminum fluoride has rebounded, but the number of aluminum fluoride resumption enterprises has increased, and the supply of aluminum fluoride has increased recently. In the future, there will be an oversupply of aluminum fluoride, and the purchasing prices of large factories will drop at the beginning of the month. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, from November 27th to December 4th, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market dropped from 9425 yuan/ton to 9368 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60% during the cycle, with a month on month decrease of 0.86% and a year-on-year increase of 0.74%. The raw material pure benzene has weakened and declined. Sinopec has lowered its listing to 7200 yuan/ton, with a weaker cost side. Downstream chemical fibers and solvents are purchased on demand, and the spot supply of cyclohexanone is not high. However, under the resistance of high price shipments, some companies have lowered their prices, and the transaction center of the cyclohexanone market has fallen.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The pure benzene market continues to decline, and inventory in East China ports continues to accumulate, making it difficult to provide positive support for market negotiations. As of December 4th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 6992.17 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is affected by negative factors.

On the supply side, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 6.55 million tons, and the current operating load is about 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises have limited product supply due to equipment maintenance. The weekly average operating load of cyclohexanone is 64.33%, which is+0.22% higher than last week. The weekly production is 89400 tons, which is+0.08 million tons compared to last week.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The market price of caprolactam has fallen, and the upstream pure benzene price has continued to decline. In addition, the cost is weak, and some caprolactam units have returned to normal. The tight supply situation has been alleviated, and the atmosphere in the caprolactam market has weakened. The demand side for cyclohexanone is temporarily bearish.

According to future market forecasts, the raw material pure benzene is expected to experience weak fluctuations, with a lack of cost support. The spot supply and demand of cyclohexanone are both low. Business Society cyclohexanone analysts predict that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market situation will be mainly wait-and-see consolidation.

This week (11.27-12.1), the domestic polycrystalline silicon market fell, with domestic supply prices slightly decreasing and imported supply sources also experiencing a certain degree of decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, polycrystalline silicon experienced a weekly decline of 2.44%. At present, the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a model of first-class solar energy has slipped to 55-65000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the devices affected by the accident in the early stage have now resumed operation, and with the release of new production capacity, mass production has been achieved. The domestic supply has significantly increased, and the slowdown in shipment speed has led to silicon material manufacturers starting to accumulate inventory. The weakening of bargaining power has forced silicon material manufacturers to lower prices for shipments.

From the perspective of downstream silicon wafers, the operating load of silicon wafer enterprises has decreased, mainly due to the backlog of inventory from manufacturers in the early stage, coupled with a slowdown in downstream procurement, the inventory level of silicon wafers has gradually decreased, and the pulling end has lowered its own operating rate to alleviate the situation of oversupply. So the price decline has slowed down this week. The mainstream transaction price of M10 single crystal silicon wafer is 2.30 yuan/piece; The current mainstream transaction price for G12 single crystal silicon wafers is 3.3 yuan per wafer.

From the perspective of terminal demand, the prices of battery cells and components continue to be inverted, and the quoted prices of battery cells remain unchanged. The demand for component installation has decreased, and the overall terminal demand remains stable.

Market forecast: Polycrystalline silicon analysts from Business Society believe that the demand increment in the silicon material market is insufficient in the near future, and the immediate need to continue to follow up. Coupled with expectations of increased supply, it is not ruled out that prices will continue to loosen and decline in the future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 30th, the price of refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1667.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.92% from November 23rd at 1772.50 yuan/ton.

Cost side: Rising crude oil market supported by rising cost of petroleum coke

The expectation of OPEC+crude oil production reduction in the near future has supported the continuous rise in crude oil market prices. As of the 29th, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures main contract was $77.86 per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $82.88 per barrel. On the one hand, OPEC+has the possibility of extending and deepening production cuts, mainly due to the organization’s concerns about weak global crude oil demand and member countries’ demands for high oil prices. Saudi Arabia may continue to implement additional production cuts, and the voluntary policy of reducing production by 1 million barrels per day may be extended until the second/third quarter of 2024. This news has boosted the crude oil market. On the other hand, US crude oil and gasoline inventories have decreased. As of the week ending November 24th, US crude oil inventories decreased by 817000 barrels, which to some extent supported international oil prices. Overall, supported by positive news recently, the crude oil market has shown an upward trend.

Supply side: Port inventory rising, pressure on refined petroleum coke shipments

Recently, ships importing petroleum coke have arrived at ports one after another, but domestic petroleum coke prices have continued to decline, sponge coke costs have been inverted, traders have a moderate shipping sentiment, and the overall inventory of petroleum coke in ports has increased. The price of ground refined petroleum coke fluctuates, with limited downstream demand and average hoarding enthusiasm. Refinery shipments are under pressure, and trading is light. Refineries adjust prices based on changes in their own indicators.

On the demand side, the reduction in production of metallic silicon and electrolytic aluminum is mainly due to the rigid demand for petroleum coke

As of November 23rd, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has reached 407, with an overall start-up rate of 55.83%, a decrease of 6 furnaces compared to the previous month. The number of silicon metal furnaces continues to decrease, continuing to be less in the south and more in the north. The cost of electricity prices in the southwest has increased, and the profits of silicon plants have been compressed. It is expected that further production reduction will occur next week; A small increase in the opening of furnaces in the northwest partially compensates for the decrease in supply in the southwest, while the overall supply slightly decreases. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is still acceptable, supporting the petroleum coke market.

Recently, the shipment of medium sulfur calcined coke has been average, with poor trading performance. The price of raw material petroleum coke continues to decline, and the downstream aluminum carbon and negative electrode markets have shown weak performance. They mainly purchase according to demand and maintain production, with limited support for calcined coke prices. In addition, the high inventory of medium sulfur calcined coke has led to an overall weak consolidation.

At present, the electrolytic aluminum market is declining, and as of November 30th, the price is 18643 yuan/ton. Electrolytic aluminum production enterprises mainly maintain stable production, with large operating capacity. In the southwest direction, Yunnan’s production reduction effect is gradually showing, and the output has significantly decreased. However, in terms of downstream demand, there is a seasonal weakening trend, but the possibility of a significant short-term weakening is not high. The overall market situation for aluminum carbon is weak, and the purchase of petroleum coke is maintained as a necessity.

Market forecast: Currently, the overall inventory of petroleum coke in the local refining market is high, coupled with weak downstream demand, and overall on-demand procurement is the main focus. But as the current price of locally refined petroleum coke continues to decline, downstream enterprises will replenish as needed, and it is expected that locally refined petroleum coke will be mainly consolidated in the near future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, in November 2023, the domestic 1 # tin ingot market first rose and then fell, with an overall decline. The average price in the domestic market was 205260 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 196260 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 4.38%.

On November 28th, the base metal index was 1139 points, a decrease of 8 points from yesterday, a decrease of 29.52% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 77.41% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On November 28th, the tin commodity index was 98.87, a decrease of 3.52 points from yesterday, a decrease of 47.33% from the highest point in the cycle of 187.70 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 130.68% from the lowest point of 42.86 points on December 9th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The monthly K-bar chart shows significant fluctuations in tin prices. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin market has experienced more recent declines and less recent gains.

In November 2013, the tin ingot market first rose and then fell. In the first half of the month, Shanghai tin fluctuated upwards, while in the second half, it fell under pressure. The trend of London tin and spot markets basically followed the fluctuations of Shanghai tin. From the perspective of supply and demand, the overall operation of smelters is relatively high, and the supply of domestically produced tin ingots is relatively loose. According to customs data on imported tin ingots, the cumulative import volume from January to October 2023 was 23100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.57%. With the good profitability of imported tin ingots in China, the number of imported tin ingots in China has increased significantly recently. In October, the monthly import volume increased by 13.6% compared to the previous month, and the import volume continues to increase. Overall, the domestic supply of tin ingots is relatively loose. In terms of demand, the downstream terminal consumer market still performs weakly, and the overall expectation of solder demand is still weak. Most consumer terminals maintain a wait-and-see attitude, and have actively reduced inventory. The procurement of raw material tin ingots is in high demand, but with the decrease in market prices, downstream entry enthusiasm has increased, and some low-priced transactions have been made in the market, resulting in overall active trading. From a comprehensive perspective in the future market, there is sufficient supply of tin ingots and weak downstream demand. Domestic inventory is generally at a high level, and fundamental tin prices are under overall pressure. It is expected that the tin ingot market will continue to operate steadily with a weak trend in the future. In the near future, we will focus on the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on the market.

Related data:

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of tin ore sand and concentrate in China in October 2023 was 25299 tons, an increase of 85.59% year-on-year and 112.26% month on month.

According to data released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS), in September 2023, the global refined tin production was 31300 tons, the consumption was 31600 tons, and there was a supply shortage of 0300 tons. The global tin ore production in September 2023 was 27800 tons.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China was 1066 yuan/ton on November 1st, and 733 yuan/ton on November 28th. This month, the price of ammonium sulfate has dropped by 31.25%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium sulfate has dropped significantly this month. In the first half of November, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price slightly decreased. The market demand is weak, and downstream and dealer inquiries have decreased. The decrease in international market transaction prices has an impact on the domestic market. The industry operates cautiously, with a clear bearish sentiment. In the second half of November, the domestic bidding price for ammonium sulfate was significantly reduced. Market demand remains sluggish, with light trading. The export market of ammonium sulfate continues to weaken, coupled with the continuous decline in urea prices, which has a negative impact on the ammonium sulfate market. As of November 28th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Henan region is around 700 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 700-750 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from August 28, 2023 to November 20, 2023, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle has seen mixed ups and downs. There was a significant decline in November, with the largest decline being -17.79% in the week of November 20th.

The downstream compound fertilizer market has slightly increased this month, with narrow price adjustments. This month, the price of raw material urea rose first and then fell, and the price of raw material ammonium phosphate increased significantly, putting increased cost pressure. Compound fertilizer enterprises have a large amount of demand, and the market is mainly driven by high prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Shengyishe Ammonium Sulfate believe that the sulfuric acid market has been continuously declining in recent days. At present, downstream delivery capacity is weak, and market trading is scarce. The continuous weakness of the urea market, coupled with the downturn in foreign markets, makes it difficult for the domestic ammonium sulfate market to improve in the short term. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will continue to decline weakly in the short term.