At the beginning of August, the autumn compound fertilizer market entered a stalemate. In the near future, most compound fertilizer companies are constantly adjusting prices and policies according to raw materials, but downstream distributors do not seem to buy it, especially in the recent fluctuations in raw material prices, so they are trapped. Can the compound fertilizer in the difficult situation break through the cage and reinvigorate?

Can urea expected by compound fertilizer companies enter a rebound period? Recently, many people in the market are paying close attention to the price trend of urea. Overall, the urea market has remained stable overall, with low-end small gains of 30-50 yuan/ton, and high-end small declines. Recently, low-end urea has received more funds, mainly concentrated. In Hebei, the mainstream price of small granular urea in Hebei is about 1810-1840 yuan / ton, while the low-cost supply in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia is also ready to rise, the overall operating rate is about 52%, although the market has signs of rebound, However, the large agricultural companies in many provinces have not started a large number of operations, and the market will remain stagnant for a period of time. In the short term, the market will remain stable, and the local low-end will rise slightly. In mid-August, it will be a key observation period, so once it is large Operation begins, and confidence in downstream fertilizer reserves increases, so confidence in the downstream of the compound fertilizer will also be boosted.

Can the ammonium, the main raw material of autumn fertilizer, continue to rise? Recently, the price of a mono-ammonium enterprise is relatively strong. The mainstream price of 55% ammonium powder in Hubei is about 2200-2250 yuan/ton, and the actual acceptance is about 2140-2200 yuan/ton. Recently, the environmental protection group “reviewed” once again entered the Hubei area. In the short term, it has not caused a big impact on the mono-ammonium enterprises. However, the raw material sulfur is supported by the rising US dollar exchange rate and downstream demand, and the price is 5-10 yuan/ton per day. In the upward adjustment. However, the compound fertilizer company has more sufficient pre-purchasing of monoammonium, which has reached 70%. In the short-term, the demand space is not large. If the raw materials continue to be bullish in the later period, the large-ammonium enterprises may increase their prices, but the actual transaction The increase will not be too big.

In summary, the raw materials are mixed, and the cost increase for compound fertilizer companies is not large. However, due to the low-priced explosives of some compound fertilizer companies last month, the fertilizer situation in autumn is more chaotic, and the price of urea in the near future is higher. Low, the confidence of downstream fertilizer is difficult to boost, when can regain the confidence of autumn fertilizer, I am afraid to expect a sharp rebound in urea prices, but the recent environmental protection efforts have been upgraded again, the second half of the company’s sharp recovery is still difficult, so in demand At the time of centralized start-up, if we can support the new situation with the help of NPK, natural gas and environmental protection, we will wait and see.