The price of ethylene glycol surged in August

The price of ethylene glycol will soar in August 2026. As of August 27th, the average spot market price for domestic oil to ethylene glycol traders was 5628.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.30% from the market average price of 5011.67 yuan/ton on August 1st.
The price of ethylene glycol for port paper cargo is mainly based on basis pricing, and the price closely follows the fluctuations of the futures market. In August 2026, the futures price of ethylene glycol rose significantly, and the base price of ethylene glycol for port paper cargo remained firm. Recently, the market has fallen and the basis has slightly decreased, but the absolute price remains high. As of the 27th, the spot contract for ethylene glycol at the port (starting from 500 tons) has a daily basis price range of+400 to+460 for this week’s spot contract. (Currently, the market basis is still benchmarked against the 09 contract)
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol (loose water, tax included, self pickup) for whole vehicle manufacturers is 5200-5450 yuan/ton. At present, the manufacturer’s quotation is relatively high, and the profits of traders who hoard goods in the early stage can be reduced.
August 2026 ethylene glycol port inventory is extremely low:
On August 27, 2026, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 178000 tons, a decrease of 238000 tons from the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on July 30, which was 416000 tons.
Reasons for the significant increase in ethylene glycol prices in August 2026:
In August 2026, the price of ethylene glycol saw a significant increase, mainly due to the impact of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. The import volume to ports significantly contracted, coupled with centralized maintenance of multiple domestic facilities, resulting in overall supply tightening; The inventory of the main ports in East China has dropped to a low level in recent years, and spot prices are tight. At the same time, the rise in crude oil costs has brought about a risk premium. The market has played a game in advance to meet the demand for stocking polyester gold, silver, and silver, jointly driving up prices significantly..
The recent significant drop in ethylene glycol prices is due to:
Recently, the price of ethylene glycol has fallen sharply, mainly due to signals of easing in the Middle East geopolitical situation. The previous geopolitical risk premium quickly dissipated, and the decline in crude oil weakened cost support; Domestic maintenance facilities are gradually restarting, and the market expects that imported goods will gradually arrive at the port in September, leading to an increase in long-term supply pressure; At the same time, the peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” did not deliver as expected, and high prices suppressed downstream polyester purchasing intentions. Some companies reduced production, and combined with the previous surge, profit taking stocks concentrated and left, driving prices to quickly decline.
Market forecast:
In September, there is a high probability that the overall price of ethylene glycol will fluctuate at a high level and the volatility will increase. The fundamental tone is still tight supply, and the biggest price fluctuation variable is the fluctuation of arrival volume caused by geopolitics.
On the supply side, domestic maintenance facilities are gradually resuming production. If the navigation in the Middle East Strait improves, imports to ports will rebound month on month, and the marginal pressure on supply will increase. However, East China ports are still at historically low inventory levels, and there is still a bottoming out in the spot market;
On the demand side, polyester is facing a traditional golden September and silver October, and production is expected to slightly rebound. However, overall terminal orders are weak, and high prices are suppressing downstream active stocking, mainly for essential purchases, with limited fulfillment during peak seasons;
Geopolitics and crude oil fluctuations will still bring emotional disturbances. If geopolitical tensions rise again, it is easy to rebound. If the supply of goods is concentrated at the port or the peak season is not as expected, there is a risk of further pullback, and the overall situation shows a tight near and loose far pattern.