The domestic ethanol price has dropped to 5521 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.83% in the past three months and a year-on-year decrease of 1.89%. The contradiction between supply and demand in the ethanol market has temporarily eased. According to the current maintenance plan, it is expected that the capacity utilization rate will continue to rise in July. The market is affected by the situation of oversupply, and the ethanol market price will fluctuate and adjust.
On the cost side, there is an expectation of a slight rebound in raw material corn, and corn based ethanol companies continue to suffer losses; The price of cassava jerky remains stable, while cassava ethanol is also deeply mired in losses; South China sugar syrup ethanol follows the consumption of sugar syrup inventory, causing a decline in corporate profitability and weak market prices. The impact of ethanol cost is mixed.

On the supply side, there has been a slight decline in domestic ethanol supply. The weekly ethanol production was 187100 tons, a decrease of 10900 tons compared to the previous period; The import volume remains unchanged at 0.01 million tons; The total supply was 187200 tons, a decrease of 10900 tons from the previous period, indicating a downward trend in supply. The supply of ethanol is affected by favorable factors.
On the demand side and downstream side, the overall demand has slightly increased, with a total demand of 172200 tons, an increase of 0.1 million tons compared to the previous period; Domestic consumption was 172000 tons, an increase of 0.1 million tons compared to the previous period; The export volume remained basically unchanged at 0.02 million tons. In terms of downstream, the consumption of traditional Baijiu is still light; The downstream of chemical industry has improved. The demand for ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
Future forecast: Some equipment maintenance has been completed, and ethanol supply is expected to slightly rebound; Traditional consumption is still in the off-season, and although there is an expectation of improvement in chemical terminal demand, it is difficult to fully digest the supply increment, and the market supply-demand imbalance is temporarily difficult to reverse. Ethanol analysts predict that the ethanol market may still be weak and mainly consolidating.