From June 19th to 26th, 2026, the domestic toluene market experienced a volatile downward trend, with the price of toluene in the Shandong region dropping from 6151 yuan/ton to 5834.33 yuan/ton, representing a 5.15% increase during the period.

This week, the overall trend of the domestic toluene market is weak, with a continuous downward shift in market focus and a quiet trading atmosphere on the exchange. The market is in a weak adjustment trend, and under the game of long and short, the market lacks conditions for upward momentum, resulting in significant pressure on overall operation. This week, the domestic toluene market continued to decline weakly, with the price center continuously shifting downwards and overall market trading being weak.
Cost aspect: Crude oil oscillation weakens, support strength continues to be insufficient
This week, the overall international crude oil market showed a volatile downward trend, with only a few trading days experiencing a slight rebound due to factors such as geopolitical situations. The overall volatility was weak, and the cost support for the toluene market remained weak. The aromatic hydrocarbon futures market fluctuates synchronously with the crude oil trend, mostly running short, making it difficult to boost confidence in the spot market. During the week, crude oil prices fell below key levels multiple times, leading to a decrease in toluene production costs. Petrochemical companies continued to lower their listed prices, further lowering the market’s spot price center. At the end of the month, crude oil closed slightly higher and aromatics were stronger in the evening session, but it could only briefly boost market sentiment and could not reverse the weak cost side pattern, resulting in insufficient overall bottoming out effect. As of June 25th, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.92 per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September contracts was $75.50 per barrel.
Supply side: Overall abundant supply, slow inventory digestion
Domestic refineries have maintained stable operation, with a relatively small number of toluene unit maintenance enterprises this week. Mainstream production enterprises are running smoothly, and the market circulation of goods continues to be abundant. The main production areas such as East China and South China have sufficient supply of goods, and the flow of goods between regions is smooth, without obvious supply shortages. The pressure of port inventory is controllable, but due to weak demand, the pace of inventory digestion is slow, which has a hidden suppression on prices. The activity of export negotiations is low, the demand in the international market is weak, and the flow of goods through export channels is not smooth, making it difficult to divert domestic trade sources and further exacerbating the situation of loose domestic supply.
Demand side: Weak demand during the off-season and strong wait-and-see sentiment
This week, the industry is in a traditional off-season for consumption, and the overall downstream demand release pace is slow. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, and the market is mainly focused on purchasing goods according to demand. The operating rate of the terminal industry remains low, with insufficient order volume and weak demand for toluene procurement, making it difficult to form bulk procurement support. After the continuous decline in prices in the early stage, the sentiment of low-level replenishment has slightly increased, but most of them are short-term small order purchases, and the overall purchasing strength is weak, making it difficult to improve the enthusiasm for purchasing in the terminal market. The price difference between pure benzene and toluene remains narrow, and the upward space for toluene is limited, which further suppresses downstream purchasing enthusiasm and maintains a low level of market trading activity.
Market forecast:

In the short term, the toluene market continues to fluctuate at a low level, and there is no obvious rebound in the market. The price is difficult to break away from a weak pattern in the short term. There is still uncertainty in the fluctuation of crude oil on the cost side, and the pressure of abundant supply on the supply side continues. The demand side has weak recovery during the off-season, and there is still a slight possibility of price decline under multiple bearish factors. We will continue to closely monitor the trend of crude oil prices in the future. As the off-season gradually ends, downstream demand is expected to steadily rebound. Coupled with the gradual adjustment of market fundamentals, it is expected that the toluene market will gradually stop falling in the future, and there is a possibility of a moderate recovery trend in the later stage.