According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 1 to 31, 2026, the domestic toluene market price increased from 5400 yuan/ton to 8067.67 yuan/ton, with a cumulative price increase of 49.4% during the period. After a sharp rise at the beginning of the month, the price rebounded and overall fluctuated upwards, closing significantly higher.

In March 2026, the domestic toluene market showed a strong operating trend of “first rising, then falling, and steadily rising”, with prices rising sharply and fluctuating significantly. The core driving force came from the strong rise of crude oil on the cost side and the continuous tightening of the supply side. At the same time, the weak downstream demand pattern formed a certain constraint on the market. Under the joint action of multiple factors, the market achieved a significant increase in March.
Cost aspect:
The overall trend of the international crude oil market in March was strong, becoming the core cost driving force supporting the upward trend of toluene prices. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to be tense, with significant disruptions to regional supply chain circulation. The tight global crude oil supply situation has yet to ease, and international oil prices have continued to rise and maintain a high operating trend. The significant increase in upstream crude oil prices has driven the simultaneous strengthening of naphtha related raw materials, further raising the production and processing costs of toluene. The periodic fluctuations in the crude oil market were also transmitted to the toluene market, causing a short-term pullback after the toluene market surged at the beginning of the month. At the end of the month, as crude oil strengthened again, it returned to an upward trend, and the overall cost support continued throughout the month.
Supply side:
The overall tightening of domestic toluene supply pattern in March provided stable support for market prices. Due to the pressure of raw material costs and equipment maintenance arrangements, many domestic main production enterprises have voluntarily reduced their production load, and some equipment has been temporarily shut down for maintenance, directly leading to a reduction in the production of toluene self-produced goods on site. At the same time, the pace of supplementing external imported goods has slowed down, coupled with restrictions on international shipping and trade circulation, resulting in a significant decrease in the amount of imported goods arriving at the port, and the overall domestic spot circulation resources have become increasingly tight. Market holding merchants generally have a strong mentality of being reluctant to sell and raising prices, and the tight circulation of spot goods has further contributed to the steady rise in toluene prices this month.
Demand side:
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 1st to 30th, the domestic PX market price showed a strong upward trend followed by a slight downward trend. As of March 31st, the executed price in the four major regions of East China, North China, Central China, and South China was 9700 yuan/ton, a significant increase from the price of 7600 yuan/ton on March 1st. The main units of Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical operated stably, and the product sales situation was normal.
In terms of international markets, from March 1st to 30th, the prices of para xylene (PX) in the Asian region fluctuated upwards, with a closing price range of 902-1252 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 924-1277 US dollars/ton CFR China for the whole month. As of March 30th, the closing prices of the Asian PX market were 1250-1252 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 1275-1277 US dollars/ton CFR China, with a significant increase in prices compared to March 1st, and the overall fluctuation range was quite obvious.

The overall demand for toluene downstream is weak, which significantly constrains the high priced raw materials. The core downstream PX industry has entered a centralized maintenance cycle this month, with multiple main units reducing their operating loads or suspending operations, significantly reducing the raw material procurement and consumption of toluene. The recovery pace of downstream polyester and textile terminal market demand is relatively slow, and the overall profitability of the industry is under pressure. Enterprises have strong resistance to high-level raw material procurement, and daily procurement only maintains the level of essential needs, with insufficient willingness to actively replenish. Downstream oil blending and solvent industries are also suppressed by high prices, with weak demand follow-up. The overall demand has failed to keep up with the pace of price increases, which to some extent constrains the upward space of the toluene market.
Market forecast:
Taking into account the fundamental factors of cost, supply, and demand in March, it is highly likely that the toluene market will maintain a high volatility pattern in the future. At the cost level, the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are difficult to completely ease in the short term, and international crude oil will continue to maintain high levels. The cost support foundation for toluene is still solid. The impact of maintenance on domestic production facilities on the supply side has not completely subsided, and the replenishment of imported goods is still relatively limited. The tight supply situation on site may continue. The resumption pace of downstream equipment on the demand side is relatively slow, and it will take time for terminal consumption to recover. The acceptance of high priced raw materials is still limited, which will continue to suppress the upward trend of the market. Overall, in the future, toluene will operate in a game of strong costs, tight supply, and weak demand, and the market is unlikely to experience significant fluctuations. The overall trend will be dominated by small fluctuations at high levels.