In the second half of April, as the Middle East ceasefire negotiations progressed and international oil prices fell, butadiene prices continued to decline, and the cost support for butadiene rubber collapsed. As of April 29th, the mainstream price of BR9000 in East China has fallen to 16180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.36% from 16790 yuan/ton on the 15th. The futures market weakened synchronously, with the main contract falling below 15500 yuan/ton during the cycle.

In the second half of April, the expectation of butadiene supply recovery increased, port inventory accumulated, and prices continued to fall, with a weekly decline of over 8%. The production cost of butadiene rubber has decreased accordingly, and the support for prices continues to weaken. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 29th, the price of butadiene was 12566 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.11% from 16133 yuan/ton on the 15th
Due to severe losses in the early stage, the domestic butadiene rubber plant maintained low load operation, and the industry operating rate in April was around 4.5%, significantly lower than the same period last year. The enterprise continues its destocking status, and the decline in Shunding rubber is limited.
The downstream tire production is basically stable, and all steel tire enterprises are gradually undergoing maintenance and production restrictions, resulting in limited room for overall capacity utilization improvement. Maintain rigid support for butadiene rubber. In addition to the US Iran negotiations, crude oil prices have fallen from their high levels at the beginning of the conflict, and the geopolitical premium has partially subsided, leading to a cooling of market risk aversion. The market mentality has shifted towards caution.
In the future, the price of raw material butadiene will fall from a high level, and there will be insufficient cost support; Low production on the supply side is difficult to change in the short term; The demand side urgently needs support, and in the short term, there is limited room for the movement of butadiene rubber. In addition, changes in the situation in the Middle East will still have an impact on the butadiene rubber industry chain through crude oil. If the US Iran conflict escalates after the holiday and crude oil prices rise sharply again, supported by costs, the butadiene rubber market in May will stop falling and rebound again.