1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of April 17th, the average price of industrial grade premium cyclohexane in China was 7433.33 yuan/ton. In early April, the cyclohexane market showed a fluctuating upward trend, and enterprise prices continued to rise. The main reason for this is the strong rise in upstream pure benzene, which drove the cyclohexane market to passively rise to alleviate cost pressures. The overall market has frequent high prices and low inventory levels.

2、 Cause analysis

In terms of cost: During the Qingming Festival, the price of upstream pure benzene continued to rise due to the influence of upstream crude oil prices, which led to a significant increase in the pure benzene market after the festival. In early April, the pure benzene market showed a volatile upward trend, with strong buying sentiment and a positive attitude among traders. The overall market negotiations were focused on high levels, and the inventory of manufacturers was tight. In late April, with the arrival of a batch of shipping goods in the East China region, the tight inventory situation in the pure benzene market was significantly alleviated. Currently, the pure benzene market is mainly strong, and the overall market returns to stable operation. In the short term, the cost support for cyclohexane is still acceptable.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream demand is good, and the operating rate of caprolactam market is stable. The overall market price is dominant. Currently, there is sufficient stock in the market. Due to the pressure of cost side price increases, the price of caprolactam has recently decreased in low prices, and high prices have occurred frequently. Inventory consumption is normal, and the downstream procurement atmosphere is still good, mainly focusing on rigid demand procurement.

In terms of technology, the future price of cyclohexane is expected to maintain a strong trend, with limited room for price decline. Since March 17, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. Currently, the two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. According to April 17, 2024, it is unlikely that the two moving averages will intersect in the short term, and the probability of a change in the operating trend in the next 7 days is not high (i.e., the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average). It is expected that the current trend of cyclohexane will continue to be narrow and strong in the near future.

Historical price monitoring of cyclohexane: Currently, the price monitoring of cyclohexane is at 1-year medium high, 2-year medium low, and 3-year medium low. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average DMF price in the past year is 7059 yuan/ton, with a median value of 7000 yuan/ton, a minimum value of 6433 yuan/ton, and a maximum value of 7566 yuan/ton. The bottom price difference (compared to the lowest historical price difference in the past year) is 900 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (compared to the highest historical price difference in the past year) is -233 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In summary, from a cost perspective, the price of pure benzene, an upstream product of cyclohexane, remains high. There is some positive support for the cost of cyclohexane, and downstream demand is good. The operating rate is stable, and it is expected that the cyclohexane market will be mainly strong in the short term, with no obvious downward trend.