According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the “V” shaped trend of the 1 # tin ingot market in East China this week (4.07-4.14) was observed. On April 7th, the average market price was 196000 yuan/ton, and on April 14th, the average market price was 197160 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.59%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have risen continuously for three months due to macroeconomic factors, and have fallen by 11.35% in a single month since February 2023. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has been fluctuating frequently recently and the overall trend is weak.

In terms of the futures market, Shanghai Tin fell first and then rose this week. On the 13th, the US dollar index fell 0.51% to 101.01, the lowest point in nearly two months. Thursday’s data showed a slowdown in US inflation, boosting the metal market, and the metal market rose generally. As of the close on the 14th, the main 2305 contract of Shanghai Tin rose 2.52% in a single day.

Fundamentally speaking, there is not much change in domestic supply and demand at present. The mentality of high prices in smelters still exists, and the overall domestic production remains at a relatively stable level of around 60%. The supply at the mining end is still slightly tight. In terms of demand, it remains weak and there are few signs of recovery in the short term. However, recent domestic inventory has slightly declined overall, which has boosted tin prices to some extent. Overall, downstream demand is still weak, and it is expected that the overall operation of the tin market will remain weak due to the lack of actual demand support. In the short term, the impact of domestic macro factors on tin prices is still limited, and it is necessary to focus on the impact of domestic and foreign macro factors on the market.

On April 15th, the base metal index stood at 1229 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 23.95% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 91.43% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 15th week of 2023 (4.10-4.14), there were a total of 9 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the list of commodity prices. Among them, there was 1 commodity that increased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase were magnesium (25.38%), silver (4.82%), and nickel (4.53%). There are a total of 11 products with a month on month decrease, and 5 products with a decrease of over 5%, accounting for 21.7% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products in the decline were neodymium oxide (-8.26%), praseodymium oxide (-7.48%), and praseodymium neodymium alloy (-6.00%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.27%.