1、 Price data

According to the data of the business society, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil as of September 28 was 6550.00 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from 6560.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

On September 28, the fuel oil commodity index was 132.66, down 0.61 points from yesterday, 2.24% from the peak of 135.70 (2022-06-21) in the cycle, and 187.89% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This month, the price of domestic 180CST fuel oil rose first and then fell. At the end of the month, the price of domestic marine oil raw materials fell, and the cost support of 180CST fuel oil was limited. According to the business community, as of September 28, the self raised low sulfur price of 180cst fuel oil in the Zhoushan area was 6550 yuan/ton, and the self raised low sulfur price of 120cst fuel oil was 6650 yuan/ton; The price of 180cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil in CNGC Shanghai is 6550 yuan/ton, and the price of 120cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil is 6650 yuan/ton.

In September, the trend of international crude oil prices was volatile and downward. The decline of crude oil prices was mainly due to the trade-off between the supply risk of Russian oil and the concern about economic recession caused by the Federal Reserve leading the global central bank to raise interest rates. The US strategic oil reserves fell continuously, hitting a 38 year low. OPEC+, an oil producing country, will increasingly demand for reducing inventory and increasing oil prices, and its idle capacity has been very limited, so it will be very difficult to increase production in the later period. Moreover, Western sanctions against Russia are still escalating, the effective period of the oil shipping ban is getting closer and closer, and the supply side is still on the high side in the near future.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, supporting fuel oil prices. It is reported that the Singapore Enterprise Development Board (ESG): As of the week of September 28, Singapore’s fuel oil depot had dropped by 1.069 million barrels to a two-week low of 22.331 million barrels.

3、 Future market forecast

In September, the international crude oil price fell in shock, and the domestic raw material price fell, which was bad for the domestic ship fuel market; Before the festival, the downstream of the ship fuel market has been stocking up. At present, the ship fuel market has a strong wait-and-see mood, and it mainly needs to purchase. At present, the 180CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6500-6700 yuan/ton, and the 120CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6600-6800 yuan/ton. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil will be dominated in the near future.