The butadiene rubber market rose slightly this week (9.16-9.23). According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in China was 13040 yuan/ton as of September 23, up 0.46% from 12980 yuan/ton last Friday. The ex factory price of two barrels of oil of butadiene rubber was basically stable this week. Only the northeast sales company of CNPC raised the ex factory price of butadiene rubber by 100 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of September 23, the ex factory price of butadiene rubber of northeast sales company of CNPC reported 12700 yuan/ton The offer from merchants was firm. As of the 23rd, the offer from the butadiene rubber market was 12800~13400 yuan/ton, and the private butadiene mainstream was 12500~12700 yuan/ton.

The short-term maintenance of 150000 t/a cis-1,4-polybutadiene unit of Sichuan Petrochemical Corporation, the shutdown of Taixiang Yubu for maintenance, the load reduction operation of Haopu and Zhenhua units, the pressure on the short-term supply side is relieved, and the supply side forms a support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber.

The butadiene market fell slightly this week (9.14-9.21), but the price has still risen since September, which continues to support the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of September 23, the price of butadiene was 8937 yuan/ton, down 1.74% from 9096 yuan/ton last Friday, and up 3.18% from 8662 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The natural rubber market rose slightly this week, but the price was lower than that of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, which was insufficient to support cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of natural rubber was 12152 yuan/ton as of September 23, up 0.43% from 12100 yuan/ton last Friday.

Since September, the commencement of downstream tire enterprises has not seen a significant increase, and the demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber has been supported to some extent, but the strength is not great. In addition, the domestic tire output from January to August declined year on year, and the overall demand was weaker than last year. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in August 2022, China’s output of rubber tire casings was 72.265 million, down 2.2% year on year. From January to August, the output of rubber tire casing decreased by 5.6% to 56422.1 million pieces compared with the same period last year.

Future market forecast: according to the analysts of the business community, the supply pressure of the butadiene rubber production chain has eased, the demand side just needs weak support, and the cost side is going up. It is expected that the price of butadiene rubber will be strong in the short term, and the changes in the supply and demand side still need to be concerned in the medium and long term.