1、 Price trend:
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According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market of PA6 rose this week, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell. As of May 20, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprises for China viscosity 2.75-2.85 was about 16066.67 yuan / ton, up or down by + 1.90% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors:
Industrial chain: upstream, the price of caprolactam continued to rise this week. Crude oil fluctuated violently under the influence of the increasingly tense situation in Eastern Europe. Raw materials pure benzene and caprolactam were supported. In addition, some caprolactam enterprises planned to overhaul their units in the early stage, resulting in reduced supply and rising prices. It is expected that the production of caprolactam will mainly rise in the short-term after finishing according to the market demand of caprolactam.
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The upstream caprolactam market trend is positive, and the cost side support of PA6 this week is acceptable. The operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant was generally stable at about 70% in the month, with limited change. In terms of news, the tension between Russia and Ukraine remains, and the strong operation of international crude oil prices does not have the expected obvious support and transmission effect on the cost side of PA6. The supply side of PA6 has gradually turned from abundant to tight. The load of downstream enterprises has increased slightly this week, the demand has increased, and the on-site trading has improved. Recent health incidents have blocked the logistics in many places in East China, affecting some PA6 demand.
3、 Future forecast:
Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA6 has risen this week, the trend of caprolactam has risen as a whole, and the cost support of PA6 is OK. Downstream enterprises take goods against the high price supply, but the on-site supply is decreasing. It is expected that the PA6 market trend may be dominated by a narrow rise in the short term.