1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of aniline was stable and small this week. On May 6, the price in Shandong was 10400-10800 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 10600-10800 yuan / ton; On May 13, the price in Shandong was 10400-10800 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 10600-10800 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and decreased by 7.29% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

On the cost side, pure benzene: in the first half of the week, the market focus of pure benzene weakened due to the sharp decline of crude oil. Affected by the impact of low-cost hydrogenated benzene in Shandong, enterprises generally take goods, and the price has fallen continuously. In the second half of the week, with the rebound of crude oil and the wide rise of Asian pure benzene, the cost support strengthened, and the center of gravity of pure benzene rebounded. Due to the decline of Sinopec’s output and the continuous decline of East China port inventory to about 97000 tons, the supply of pure benzene is expected to be tight, and the price of main refineries is rising. Shandong was supported to rise, but the increase was limited.

Nitric acid: domestic nitric acid rose by a wide margin this week. The domestic production price of nitric acid was 2466.67 yuan / ton on May 6 and 2666.67 yuan / ton on May 13. The price increased by 8.11% compared with last week and 17.65% compared with the same period last year. Boosted by the rise of raw materials, the price of nitric acid rose, and the goods sold in the market were acceptable.

Pure benzene and nitric acid in the upstream rose this week, and the cost support strengthened. During the week, a 100000 t / a aniline plant in Nanhua was shut down, and the supply in East China was reduced. Jinling and Jinmao short stop units have been restarted. The load of aniline units in Shandong is high and the market supply is loose. The downstream demand side of aniline performed poorly, mainly just in need of purchase. During the week, the market price of aniline was temporarily stable, and the industry was cautious.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost and pure benzene, affected by the US gold market, it is expected that the high level of pure benzene in Asia will be strong in the short term. Domestically, the arrival of pure benzene in the later stage is still small, the port inventory may continue to decline, and the price of pure benzene in East China remains relatively high. The lower reaches of Shandong Province prefer to purchase low-cost hydrogenated benzene, which drags down the pure benzene market and has a price difference with East China.

In terms of nitric acid, liquid ammonia has increased significantly, and the supply of nitric acid is tight. It is expected that the price of nitric acid will be dominated.

Although the cost side is well supported, the demand for aniline is weak and the inventory pressure of enterprises is large. Aniline may fall. The market is concerned that if the public health events in the later stage improve or drive the release of aniline demand, the price may rebound. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, downstream demand and the impact of the dynamics of aniline plant on the price of aniline.