1、 Price trend

 

According to the data monitoring of business agency: on January 6, the average price of domestic LNG was 4993.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 283 yuan / ton compared with 4710 yuan / ton before New Year’s day, an increase of 6.02% during the cycle and a decrease of 6.96% compared with the same period last year.

 

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2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

After the new year’s Day holiday, the domestic LNG price continued to rise, rising nearly 7% for three days, and the focus shifted upward. At the end of the new year’s Day holiday, the logistics recovered, the shipping atmosphere of the liquid plant was good, the liquid level decreased, the supply of imported gas decreased, and the price increased continuously, which boosted the rising atmosphere of domestic liquid plants. The daily rise rate on the first working day after the Festival was 0.78%, and the prices in some regions such as Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Henan rose. On the 5th, the trading and trading of the property market was actively repaired, and the liquid plants with low prices also rose, with the daily increase of domestic liquid prices of 1.33%. On the 6th, the increase expanded, Shaanxi increased by 300 yuan / ton, and other regions also actively followed the increase. At the same time, due to the improvement of trading in recent days, the inventory pressure of liquid plant was reduced, so that the price was pushed up. The auction of Northwest gas source ended in the second week of January, and the transaction price was 2.93-2.97 yuan / m3, up 0.05 yuan / m3 compared with the low-end and 0.08 yuan / m3 compared with the high-end of the previous cycle. The trading volume is 21 million cubic meters. At present, 4720-5100 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 4910-5070 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 4850-5250 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 4770-4950 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 5170-5500 yuan / ton in Hebei and 5200-5700 yuan / ton in Henan. The price of inlet gas is about 5050-6900 yuan / ton.

 

According to the weekly increase and decrease from October 11, 2021 to January 2, 2022, the domestic liquefied natural gas cycle showed mixed gains and losses, with an increase of 17.75% on October 11 and a decrease of 15.97% on December 6, and then began to rise continuously.

 

region Specifications January 6th December 31st Rise and fall

Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 4720-5100 4650-4950 + 70/+150

Shaanxi liquified natural gas 4910-5070 4350-5050 + 560/+50

Shanxi liquified natural gas 4850-5250 4600-5200 -+ 250/+50

Ningxia liquified natural gas 4770-4950 4730-4780 + 40/+170

Henan liquified natural gas 5200-5700 4950-5350 + 250/+350

Hebei liquified natural gas 5170-5500 4950-5100 + 220/+400

Downstream products fell more or rose less:

 

Methanol, the negotiation range of methanol market in Dongying, Shandong Province on January 6 was 2330-2350 yuan / ton, which was delivered to cash exchange. The transaction was general, but most of them were cautious about the short-term future market. Most of the transactions in the methanol market in central Shandong are delivered to cash exchange at 2360-2380 yuan / ton. The quotation of the local methanol factory in central Shandong is stable to 2550 yuan / ton, and the factory provides cash exchange. The market is bullish. The offer price of methanol in southern Shandong is 2480 yuan / ton. The factory provides cash exchange nearby. Linyi receives the local offer price of about 2480 yuan / ton and sends it to cash exchange. The logistics offer is limited. The downstream receiving is cautious and the market negotiation is general.

 

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Liquid ammonia, on the 6th, the market of liquid ammonia in Shandong stabilized. Today, the manufacturer’s quotation is generally stable, the manufacturer ships normally, and the inventory pressure is relieved. At present, the market demand is acceptable, the dealer’s offer price has little change compared with that before the festival, the downstream procurement is normal, and the market inventory continues to go. Today, the mainstream price in the region is 4000-4200 yuan / ton. The market is expected to operate steadily in the near future.

 

Urea, the domestic urea market rose on January 6, the prices of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas were adjusted at a low level recently, and the cost support was weakened. From the perspective of demand: the promotion of agricultural demand is accelerated, and industrial demand is mainly wait-and-see. Agricultural fertilizer preparation began to increase in some areas, and the winter storage of chemical fertilizer is expected to accelerate. The market price of melamine was adjusted at a low level, the inventory of enterprises was under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation was weakened. In terms of supply, some gas head enterprises stopped production for maintenance, and the daily output of urea decreased slightly. On the whole, urea cost support weakened, downstream demand increased, urea supply was insufficient, and urea rose slightly in the future.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The LNG analyst of business agency believes that after the new year’s day, the market trading atmosphere has improved, the inventory pressure of the liquid plant has been reduced, and a new round of Northwest feed gas price rise has improved the overnight liquid market. It is expected that the price will continue to rise in the short term.

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