1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, pure benzene rose continuously and the price rose broadly in the first half of October; In the second half of the month, prices began to fluctuate downward and fell deeply at the end of the month. On October 1, the price was 7880 yuan / ton; On October 29, the price was 7500-7700 yuan / ton (average price 7600 yuan / ton), the highest price of this month appeared on October 13, the price was 8580 yuan / ton, and the lowest price appeared on October 29, the price was 7600 yuan / ton. This month’s decline was 3.55%, an increase of 111.11% over the same period last year, and the difference between the highest and lowest prices in the month was 980 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and review

The first half of October: during the period of November 11, crude oil rose broadly, driving the relevant commodity markets to actively follow up. The cost side support was strong, the outer disk Asian pure benzene followed the rise, the external news was good, and the domestic pure benzene market followed the rise. Two new caprolactam units have been put into operation in the downstream of Shandong, and the downstream bidding is enthusiastic. The pure benzene enterprises have good shipments and the inventory has decreased. Multiple positive attacks, in the first half of the month, the price of pure benzene rose broadly.

With the weakening of downstream demand, the overall decline of pure benzene market and the impact of low price of hydrogenated benzene in the north, pure benzene fluctuated downward. Due to power restriction in East China, the downstream operating rate is not high as a whole, and the demand for pure benzene is weak. It was reported near the end of the month that the crude oil quota of Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II was implemented, and the export volume of pure benzene in East China was expected to further increase. Superimposed on the general weakness of bulk commodities, the price of pure benzene fell rapidly, with a decline of nearly 9% in the last week.

This month, Sinopec raised the price twice and lowered the price twice, with a total increase of 700 yuan / ton to 8300-8400 yuan / ton twice and a total decrease of 800 yuan / ton to 7500-7600 yuan / ton twice.

In terms of crude oil, with the approaching winter in the northern hemisphere and the easing of the epidemic, energy demand is expected to increase. Global natural gas and coal prices soared, and some power plants were replaced by oil. The shortage of crude oil supply continued to drive the international oil price higher, with oil distribution and US oil both exceeding US $80 / barrel. Brent rose 6.07 USD / barrel this month, or 7.75%; WTI rose $8.54/barrel, or 11.38%.

In the external market, Asian pure benzene fell after rising in width this month. On October 29, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was US $961 / T, an increase of US $2 / T or 0.21% over September 30.

Downstream, styrene: styrene fluctuated and fell after a wide rise this month. On October 1, the production price in Shandong was 9190 yuan / ton, and on October 29, the price was 9480 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.16% this month and 39.41% over the same period last year.

Aniline: in October, aniline showed a broad upward trend as a whole. On October 1, the price in Shandong was 11000-11320 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11300-11500 yuan / ton; On October 29, the price in Shandong was 14000-14260 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 14500 yuan / ton; It increased by 26.87% compared with the beginning of the month and 111.44% compared with the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of raw materials, the Iranian nuclear negotiations may be restarted, but the prospect is still uncertain. Crude oil supply is expected to be tight, the pattern is difficult to change, the global epidemic has eased, energy demand is expected to improve, and short-term crude oil prices are expected to remain high. The market is waiting for the OPEC + meeting to be held on November 4 to discuss the output policy. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of global climate, epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on output, the inventory dynamics of crude oil and refined oil in the United States, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

Crude oil may fall, but the price is still high and the cost support is strong. If the production capacity of pure benzene of Zhejiang Petrochemical is improved, the supply of pure benzene will increase in the later stage. Some downstream still limit power, reduce load and stop, and weak demand limits the recovery of pure benzene prices. On the whole, pure benzene is expected to fluctuate weakly in early November. Continue to pay attention to the dynamic market of downstream, the dynamics of domestic pure benzene units, and the impact of the trend of crude oil and external disk on the price of pure benzene.