1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, on the 14th, the spot nickel price fell sharply by 3.31%, down more than 5000 yuan / ton. After the nickel price rose sharply to a new high in the previous trading day, it is now at a high level.

Macroscopically, the US dollar rose, metals suffered setbacks and generally fell, dragging down nickel prices. In March this year, according to the news of the successful trial production of high nickel matte, Castle Peak industry will supply 60000 tons of high nickel matte to Huayou cobalt industry and 40000 tons of high nickel matte to Zhongwei Co., Ltd. within one year from October 2021. As soon as this news came out, the nickel price plummeted to the low point of 120000 yuan. Later, due to the rise of demand for new energy sources, the nickel price slowly rebounded to the high level of the year. Now, as October approaches, it is rumored that Indonesia’s high matte nickel has been put into operation. Combined with the news in March this year, nickel prices panic and fall sharply. Domestic stainless steel production was also limited, so the production schedule was low in September and the demand was limited. Although the successful trial production of high matte nickel affects the overall fundamentals of nickel, it will take time for large-scale output, and the momentum of new energy vehicles is good. In October, the rainy season in the Philippines is also coming, and the supply expectation is tight, which supports the nickel price.

Future forecast: the current nickel price has plummeted sharply, which should not be too pessimistic. The current nickel price decline is, on the one hand, people’s panic about the production of high matte nickel, on the other hand, they are afraid of the current price. However, tight supply is still the mainstream tone, and new energy is also supported in terms of demand. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate mainly in the range of 142000-147000 yuan / ton in the short term.