There is uncertainty in the cost side, and the price of mixed xylene rises first and then falls (August 2-august 8, 2021)

1、 Price trend

Gamma Polyglutamic Acid

According to the bulk list data of business society, the trend of mixed xylene fell after the county magistrate this week. On August 1, the price of mixed xylene was 5900 yuan / ton; On Sunday (August 8), the price was 5880 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton or 0.34% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 65.63%.

2、 Analysis and review

Crude oil fell sharply during the week, and the cost support weakened; Downstream demand continued to be weak and market negotiations were light. In the early stage, driven by the reduction of supply in South China, the price rose. With the arrival of ships, the supply increased and the market focus fell.

In terms of external market, as of August 6, the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was US $820.5/t, up US $8 / T or 0.98% month on month compared with July 30; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was US $834 / T, up US $1 / T or 0.12% month on month on July 30.

In terms of crude oil, the spread of delta mutant virus has suppressed the atmosphere of the crude oil market, OPEC + has gradually increased production since August, and negative factors such as the increase of U.S. crude oil inventory have suppressed, resulting in a sharp decline in international oil prices this week. On July 30, Brent fell $5.63 / barrel, or 7.38%; WTI fell US $5.67/barrel, or 7.67%.,

In the downstream PX market, the domestic PX price rose this week, at 7300 yuan / ton, up 2.82% from last week and 58.7% from the same period last year. As of August 6, the closing prices in Asia were USD 938-940 / T FOB Korea and USD 956-958 / T CFR China.

In terms of PTA market, PTA in East China fell this week. On Friday (August 6), the price was 5329.09 yuan / ton, down 3.84% from last week and up 46.74% from the same period last year.

In the ox market, the price of ox rose this week. On Friday (August 6), the price of ox in East China was 6300 yuan / ton, up 1.61% from last week and 43.18% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society believe that: at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of American oil drilling platforms and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, etc. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of the new crown vaccine, the US dollar index and stock market linkage.

The demand side continues to be tepid, and the trend of crude oil on the cost side is still uncertain. It is expected that the trend of mixed xylene will continue to fluctuate in a narrow range next week. Continue to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and external market, maintenance and inventory dynamics of mixed xylene unit and the impact of downstream demand on its price.

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