Demand is not good, rare earth industry market is weak and difficult to change

According to the monitoring of business society, the trend of domestic rare earth market price index has continued to fall since the second quarter. The price of praseodymium and neodymium series rare earths in China has continued to decline, while the price of heavy rare earths has declined. The domestic rare earth market is no longer prosperous. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, the rare earth index was 490 points on June 7, which was the same as yesterday, down 51.00% compared with the highest 1000 points in the cycle (2011-12-06), Compared with the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015, it has increased by 80.81%( Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

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It can be clearly seen from the rare earth index chart that since April, the domestic rare earth price has continued to decline. Recently, the prices of mainstream commodities in the rare earth market have continued to decline, and the rare earth market is weak and difficult to change. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the domestic mainstream products such as neodymium oxide, metal neodymium, praseodymium neodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and metal praseodymium have been on the decline. As of June 7, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare earths was 489000 yuan / ton, down 22.07% from the beginning of April; The price of neodymium metal was 612500 yuan / ton, down 22.22% from the beginning of April; The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 471500 yuan / ton, 19.06% lower than that in early April; The price of PR nd alloy was 590000 yuan / ton, 17.48% lower than that in early April; The price of praseodymium was 645000 yuan / ton, 4.44% lower than that at the beginning of April, and the domestic market trend of light rare earth has dropped.

In the second quarter, the rare earth market continued to decline. According to the feedback of some enterprises, the overall transaction situation was not good, and the downstream permanent magnet manufacturers were not active in purchasing. However, in the early stage, the manufacturers were active in preparing goods, and the inventory in the yard increased, which led to the general low enthusiasm of the downstream replenishment. In this case, the prices of mainstream rare earth products declined. Sales of new energy vehicles have slowed down and the rare earth industry has been affected. The main rare earth raw materials of high performance NdFeB are light rare earth praseodymium neodymium oxide, heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, which are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy-saving frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional vehicles and other fields. According to statistics, the sales of new energy vehicles are still good. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, in May 2021, the sales volume of the automobile industry is expected to reach 2.224 million units, a month on month decrease of 2.1% and a year-on-year increase of 0.5%; From January to may, the cumulative sales volume of the automobile industry is estimated to be 10.951 million, a year-on-year increase of 37.6%. The downstream purchasing is not active, the psychology of resisting high price is serious, the market price of light rare earth is falling, and the market price of heavy rare earth is falling correspondingly.

From the trend chart, it can be seen that the price trend of dysprosium Series in China has dropped sharply. As of July 7, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.375 million yuan / ton, down 22.39% from the beginning of April; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.355 million yuan / ton, down 16.64% since April, and the price of dysprosium metal was 3.225 million yuan / ton, down 17.31% since April; The domestic price of terbium series dropped sharply, with the domestic price of terbium oxide at 6.45 million yuan / ton and that of metal terbium at 8.225 million yuan / ton. There are few transactions in the domestic rare earth market. The upper, middle and lower reaches of the market are mainly on the lookout. Traders tend to buy at a low price, and the market price of heavy rare earth keeps falling. However, Myanmar’s political situation is unstable, and the global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products. The import source has decreased significantly. The supply of heavy rare earth in the market is general, but the downstream resistance is more serious, and the market price trend has dropped sharply.

Recently, the “notice on industrial energy conservation supervision in 2021″ stressed that enterprises in key industries such as iron and steel, non-ferrous metal smelting, petrochemical and chemical industry, building materials and so on should be comprehensively investigated, and special supervision on the implementation of mandatory energy consumption quota standards per unit product should be carried out, so as to finally achieve full coverage of energy conservation supervision of enterprises in key industries during the “14th five year plan”. Industry insiders believe that this reflects the strengthening of government control over the rare earth industry, which is conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Since 2021, the market of rare earth products has been objective, but the lower reaches of the business purchase significantly, resulting in the market price continued to decline.

In 2021, the first batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation total amount control indicators increased significantly, which was related to the strong downstream demand. The Ministry of natural resources issued the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining in 2021. In 2021, the total amount control indicators of the first batch of rare earth mines (rare earth oxide REO, the same below) in China were 84000 tons, including 11490 tons of ionic (mainly medium and heavy rare earth) rare earth mines, The index of rock ore type (light) rare earth ore is 72510 tons. The first batch of tungsten concentrate (tungsten trioxide content 65%, the same below) has a total mining control index of 63000 tons, of which the main mining index is 46890 tons and the comprehensive utilization index is 16110 tons. In 2021, the total amount of rare earth and tungsten mines will continue to be controlled, and the national policy is favorable. However, the demand for rare earth and tungsten mines is poor, the accumulation of reserves is serious, and the trend of some products in the rare earth market will decline sharply.

With the sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, the demand is general, but the domestic rare earth supply starts normally. In addition, the recent on-site transaction is not good, and the purchase is not active. Business analyst Chen Ling predicts that the market price of rare earth in the later period may continue to decline in the short term.

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