Commodity index: on May 31, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index was 93.15, down 1.81 points from yesterday, down 14.55% from 109.01 points (August 28, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and up 10.47% from 84.32 points, the lowest point on August 18, 2020（ Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)
|Gamma Polyglutamic Acid|
The monitoring found that in May 2021, the market of China’s (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) solid polyaluminum chloride showed a fluctuating upward trend in the early stage, and then turned around and decreased at the end of the month: the domestic mainstream price was 1720 yuan / ton on the 1st, 1756.67 yuan / ton on the 30th, and decreased to 1723.33 yuan / ton on the 31st. Among them, the main influencing factor is the change of raw material price.
Industrial chain: upstream raw materials, hydrochloric acid: business data show that in May, the trend of hydrochloric acid in North China showed a slight upward trend. On the 1st, the mainstream market quotation was 226.67 yuan / ton. On the 17th, the price of hydrochloric acid mixture in Shandong increased by 6.66 yuan / ton, or 2.94%. After that, the price temporarily stabilized around 223.33 yuan / ton. The market of liquid chlorine in the upper reaches is general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid. The market of silica and ammonium chloride in the lower reaches is high, which brings certain benefits to the price of hydrochloric acid. In the early stage, the maintenance of enterprises increased, the supply of hydrochloric acid was tight, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream was good, and the market price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong increased slightly; In the later period, the quotations of some manufacturers fell slightly. Calcium powder: according to the manufacturers in the main production area, the price of polyaluminum chloride was generally increased this month due to the rising prices of hydrochloric acid and calcium powder.
Secondly, natural gas is used in the production process. During the Spring Festival in February, Shandong’s civil gas market was phased. The trend before and after the festival was different. Before the festival, the market was mainly weak, and after the festival, the market took a short roller coaster. In March, the LPG market changed its downward trend and returned to the upward trend, and the civil gas market in Shandong rose significantly; However, in the middle of March, it began to fall continuously, the rising situation was blocked, and the rebound market did not continue; From the end of March, the LPG market was dominated by favorable factors and entered the upward channel again. In April, the LPG civil market continued to rise, and the price kept rising, especially after the Qingming Festival holiday; However, in late April, the price of liquefied petroleum gas for civilian use showed a “slide” market, and remained stable after a 5-6% drop. In May, the LPG market experienced twists and turns, showing an overall upward trend; According to the data monitoring of the business society, the average price of LPG in Shandong market was 4066.67 yuan / ton on the 5th and 4143.33 yuan / ton on the 31st, with an increase of 156.66 yuan / ton. In fact, the highest price of this month was 4306.67 yuan / ton, and the lowest price was 4133.33 yuan / ton, with a maximum amplitude of 4.02%.
Downstream demand: the downstream demand of polyaluminum chloride still has little change. The “carbon peak” and “carbon neutralization” proposed by the two sessions of this year have stricter and long-term sustainability requirements on the environmental protection of production enterprises in various industries. Chemical enterprises have undergone strict environmental inspection, many industries have stopped production from time to time for rectification, and many enterprises need rectification. There should be a certain demand for environmental protection products in terms of environmental protection. Water treatment products are limited due to their application, Compared with atmospheric emissions, the demand for purification products may be slightly lower. According to a number of enterprises, this year’s demand has been average, strict environmental inspection, repeated production stoppage and rectification, enterprises are under great pressure, and small enterprises may be eliminated. So far this month, the production is normal, the inventory is high, and the demand has not changed effectively.
Future forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, the current demand is general and the inventory is sufficient. The price change of polyaluminum chloride mainly depends on the raw material cost. The raw material manufacturers are tight in supply and the price is relatively firm due to maintenance and other reasons. The price of liquefied gas for production fluctuates and rises. The cost of polyaluminum chloride rises compared with the previous period, and the price may temporarily maintain the current price, Follow up pay close attention to the demand situation and the price change of raw material cost.