1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic xylene market price showed a downward trend this week. Xylene price was 4060 yuan / ton on December 20, and 3954 yuan / ton on this Sunday (December 27), down 104 yuan / ton or 2.61% compared with last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

During the week, Sinopec’s xylene prices in East and central China were reduced by about 150 yuan / ton, while those in South and North China were reduced by 100 yuan / ton. Xylene inventory in East China ports this week was about 88700 tons, a month on month decrease of 18000 tons. During the week, crude oil fell due to bad news, which led to the weakness of xylene external market, while the domestic xylene market fell. Downstream PTA, PX, ox and other weak demand; this week’s gasoline price volatility, weak market atmosphere. Xylene holders are reluctant to sell at low prices and wait and see the price trend of crude oil and refined oil.

In terms of crude oil, a more infectious new crown mutant virus was found in the UK last weekend. Most cities in the UK implemented strict City closure measures. The market worried that the demand for crude oil would be frustrated again, and crude oil fell due to bad news. Friday is the Christmas holiday, crude oil information is not available. Compared with December 18, Brent fell $1.575/barrel, or 3.03%; WTI fell $1.01/barrel, or 2.05%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 24.52% and WTI decreased by 20.64%.

Downstream, in the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week, and the listed price of Sinopec’s enterprises was about 4300 yuan / ton, down 35.82% year on year. PX market based on demand procurement, price stability. As of December 24, the closing prices of p-xylene market in Asia were US $601-591 / T FOB Korea and US $619-621 / T CFR China.

In terms of PTA market, the price of PTA in East China rose after falling this week. Compared with last week, the overall price of PTA fell by 25 yuan / ton, or 0.68%, down 25.87% year on year. PTA due to limited maintenance efforts, supply is high, as of December 24, PTA industry operating rate in the vicinity of 85%. In terms of inventory, the downstream polyester started, but it was difficult to further improve due to the “double 11″ and the basic end of Christmas orders, which led to a substantial accumulation of domestic PTA inventory again.

In the ox market, ox prices fell sharply this week. The price of ox in East China was 5000 yuan / ton, down 500 yuan / ton or 9.09% from last week. The cost of o-benzene is weak, and the rising power is insufficient; the price of downstream phthalic anhydride plummeted in December, which is bad for o-benzene market, and the demand for o-benzene decreased, and the insufficient demand dragged down the price of o-benzene plummeting. In the future, the good news of o-benzene market weakened and the bad news increased.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil wells, weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the worsening global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of economic recovery and rescue plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States, the progress of new crown vaccine research and development, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Friday is Christmas, crude oil market demand is expected to decline, coupled with uncertainty in the crude oil market, toluene is expected to be weak next Tuesday. The downstream demand is weak, xylene price has great resistance to break through upward, and focus on the trend of gasoline price.