1、 Price trend
The ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly this week, from 1656.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1680.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.41%, down 11.89% year-on-year from the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, with the urea commodity index at 78.14 on June 12.
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2、 Market analysis
From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream urea factory price in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. The quotation of Yangmei plain urea this weekend is 1680 yuan / ton, which is 50 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea this weekend is 1660 yuan / ton, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea this weekend is 1700 yuan / ton, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week.
From the perspective of market demand, at present, the wheat harvest season in North China and central China has come to the end, with a slight decline in agricultural demand and weak enthusiasm for goods preparation; in terms of industrial demand, the procurement of downstream compound fertilizer and plate enterprises is more cautious, with more on-demand procurement, on-demand use and moderate follow-up. Supply side: Recently, the start-up of urea enterprises still fell slightly, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. The short-term urea market is expected to fluctuate slightly.
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From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chain: the urea upstream products in this week have increased slightly as a whole: the price of natural gas has increased slightly, with the quotation rising 0.54% from 2490.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2503.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 27.51% compared with the same period of last year; the price of liquid ammonia in this week is temporarily stable, with the quotation of 3083.33 yuan / ton, down 6.19% compared with the same period of last year, and the urea cost in this week as a whole Strong support. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was temporarily stable, with a price of 5066.67 yuan / ton. The downstream rubber plate factory has a general enthusiasm for urea procurement, which has a negative impact on the price of urea.
3、 Future forecast
In the middle of June, the urea market in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly. Urea analysts of business club believe that at present, agricultural demand has declined slightly, and downstream industry has general enthusiasm for urea procurement. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly and fall mainly.