1、 Melamine price trend:

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the domestic melamine market this week was stable, flat compared with the beginning of the week (January 6), and the mainstream domestic melamine quotation on the 10th was 5200-5400 yuan / ton. In a three-month cycle, it fell 5.82% year-on-year. On January 10, the melamine commodity index was 63.80, the same as that on January 9, down 36.20% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-18), and up 11.99% from the lowest point of 56.97 on February 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: the domestic melamine market is stable this week. At present, the operating rate of melamine enterprises has not changed much, and the supply side is fair. As the downstream factories continue to have holidays, the demand side is weak, and the enterprises mainly implement the early orders. At present, the mainstream price of melamine market in Xinjiang is around 4900 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Sichuan is around 5400 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Henan is around 5400 yuan / ton. The main quotation of melamine market in Shandong is around 5600 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the factory price (1.6-1.10) of urea in Shandong Province in the upstream this week rose slightly, or 0.20%. The upstream liquid ammonia price (1.6-1.10) fell slightly, with a decline of 0.57%. It is expected that the market will continue to maintain a weak position in the short term, mainly affected by the high ammonia volume in most regions, and it is not ruled out that the possibility of further exploration of low ammonia is possible.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the first week of 2020 (1.6-1.10), there are 27 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are bisphenol A (9.65%), glycol (7.92%), ammonium chloride (5.09%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are caustic soda (- 5.22%), chloroform (- 4.55%), sodium metabisulfite (- 3.79%). This week’s average was 0.35%.

3、 Future forecast:

Melamine analysts believe that the recent raw material urea prices rose slightly, the price of liquid ammonia fell slightly, and the impact on melamine is limited. At present, the market trading atmosphere is light, and there is no strong positive factor support. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic melamine market will be dominated by stable operation.