I. price trend
According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, aniline rose slightly in November and then fell in a step-by-step manner, with a monthly decline of 19.11%. On October 31, the price in Shandong was 8300 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 8700 yuan / ton; on November 30, the price in Shandong was 6500 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 6900 yuan / ton.
II. Analysis and comment
1. Raw materials: pure benzene: this month, the range of pure benzene fluctuates in a narrow range. On November 30, the listing price of pure benzene was 5250-5351 yuan / ton. This month, the tight domestic spot supply of pure benzene led to the short supply, which led to a slight recovery in the price of pure benzene; the port inventory continued to be below 100000 tons, and the port to ship situation was also very limited, the market low-cost resources were hard to find, and the mentality of reluctant to sell increased.
Nitric acid: the price of nitric acid in East China is lower in this month. At the end of October, the price of nitric acid in East China is 1716.67 yuan / ton. At the end of November, the price of nitric acid in East China is 1616.67 yuan / ton.
2. Products: this month, the basic recovery load of the aniline plant shut down by enterprises increased the supply. The downstream demand has been low, the enterprise inventory has accumulated, in order to promote shipment, the price has been lowered many times.
III. future forecast
1. Raw materials: at present, domestic demand for pure benzene downstream is weak, which will still restrict the market recovery. It is predicted that the short-term pure benzene market is difficult to return to temperature, and the weak operation is the main one. But the stock up before the Spring Festival will form a good support for the market.
2. Domestic market: there is no large-scale shutdown of domestic aniline plant temporarily; the overall operation rate of downstream MDI is not high, the demand is weak, and the price of aniline is difficult to recover.
Considering comprehensively, it is expected that aniline will still operate weakly and stably in the short term, and attention should be paid to raw materials and downstream market.