Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the price of aniline rose in August as a whole compared with last month. At the beginning of this month, the price of aniline was 5570-5900 yuan/ton. At the end of this month, the price of aniline was 6000-6300 yuan/ton. The monthly increase was 7.7%. The highest price of this month appeared in July 22-24.

II. Analytical Review

1. Raw materials: At the beginning of the month, the price of crude oil and external pure benzene continued to fall, which had a negative impact on the domestic market, and the downstream market was relatively weak, with the price of pure benzene falling. Affected by typhoon in the middle of the year, some installations in Shandong stopped, the supply decreased, and the price of pure benzene rebounded. Subsequently, due to the shortfall in the supply of pure benzene in the United States, the price of pure benzene in the U.S. dollar disk continued to rise, and the arbitrage window between the United States and South Korea remained open, supporting the domestic pure benzene market to improve.

2. Products: Aniline cost support weakened at the beginning of the month, and downstream demand weakened, prices weakened, to 14 to reach the lowest price. On the 15th, it began to warm up along with the cost side. Affected by typhoon in mid-August, both upstream and downstream facilities were parked, aniline was also affected, and the supply was reduced. In the latter part of the year, Nanhua mainly prepared its cargo and reduced its external supply.

3. Downstream: In August, there were more production restrictions and weak demand, which limited the increase of aniline.

3. Future Market Forecast

1. Raw materials: At present, domestic pure benzene stock is relatively small, and Korean plant overhaul, European overhaul is not yet over, global supply is tight, boosting the market. Hearing that the current CFR China talks in September are still on the low side, it is expected that shipments will be limited throughout September. At present, the price difference between Sinopec and other domestic pure benzene enterprises is relatively small, and there is still an upward possibility.

2. Domestic market: Environmental protection supervision will continue until the end of October, the start-up load is still not high, and the limited demand for aniline will still restrict the growth rate of aniline.

Considering comprehensively, the cost support is strong, and the price of aniline has been on the strong side recently.