Price Trend

The domestic ethanol market rose and fell unevenly this week. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the price of domestic ethanol market was 5380 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 5370 yuan/ton at the end of the week. Within the week, the price of domestic ethanol market dropped by 0.19%, which was 1.55% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the alcohol market has gone up and down differently. The Northeast Alcohol Market is in a weak position. Large factories in Northeast Jilin have maintenance plans in the near future. Enterprises are actively shipping in the early stage. It is reported that enterprises have obvious willingness to pull up in the near future, and the downstream purchasing willingness is general. Large factories in Heilongjiang have parked and small factories have positive shipment mentality. Market transaction prices continue to burst out at low prices, while prices in East China have fallen. Now stable, downstream more consumption of low-cost supply; some enterprises in Henan are still unstable, supported by good supply side prices remain stable; Northeast China arrives at port, local supply is limited, Mashan plant in Guangxi region continues to stop, it is reported that short-term driving is possible, downstream demand is light, market protection. Stay steady.

Industry chain: In the upstream, the price difference between corn auctioned grain source and new grain is limited, the competitive advantage of auctioned grain declines, the enthusiasm of enterprises to purchase is not strong, and the demand is weak. With the continuous entry of grain for auction in the near future, the enthusiasm of trade enterprises to go out of the warehouse has increased. Some corn deep processing enterprises will be repaired soon in summer. In addition, the demand for breeding is currently in a relatively stable and slightly weak state. We anticipate that in the context of the continued entry of grain auctions into the market, the corn market will continue to maintain a weak stage of adjustment, and the probability will be greater until the end of the auction. However, from the overall trend, the corn market is expected to be bullish after the middle and late August. Ethyl acetate: The domestic market for ethyl acetate is strong this week. After a series of early rises, downstream and traders digest pre-order and inventory mainly, the market turnover is light, the market maintains a high firm. Despite the insufficient turnover of new orders in the market, the mainstream manufacturers still mainly deliver early orders, and there is no short-term accumulation of supply, maintaining a high and stable price offer. After mid-month, some export orders were delivered one after another. However, after the expansion of Ethyl Acetate plant in Europe, the quantity of domestic export of Ethyl Acetate decreased. Although near the end of the month, the current export support is not good enough. Domestic downstream digestion speed is limited, short-term domestic single market turnover is weak.

3. Future Market Forecast

A large factory in Northeast Jilin area will enter the overhaul immediately. The stock of enterprises is not high and the willingness to pull up is obvious. It is expected that the short-term market will go up slightly. Small factories in Heilongjiang area will ship goods actively. However, under the pull of Jilin’s supply, it is expected that the short-term market price will remain stable or adjust slightly. New low-price goods in Northeast China will arrive. After Hong Kong, it is expected that the price of local supply in East China will be weak; the start-up load of enterprises in Henan is not high; furthermore, large factories in Sichuan will enter the inspection and repair immediately, which will benefit Henan market, and the market price in Henan will remain firm; the entry price of foreign supply in South China will remain firm in the short term, and local enterprises in South China will be underfunded by raw materials supply. Supported by this, the enterprises are reluctant to reduce the price of sales, and the short-term market in South China is expected to remain stable. Ethanol analysts from business associations predict that the short-term trend of regionalization of the domestic ethanol market is obvious.