Price Trend

This week the propane Market shocked down. At the beginning of the week, the average market price of propane was 4490 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was 4477.5 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 0.23%, which was 0.57% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week, the domestic propane market is mainly downward, and the trading atmosphere is general. As of May 17, Dongming Petrochemical Company of Shandong Province has not offered any price for the time being. The ex-factory price of propane in Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group is 4700 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group is 4600 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Huifeng Petrochemical Company is 4480 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Company is 4480 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong Binzhou Dayou Group is 4450 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price of propane in Shandong Zhonghai Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4350 yuan/ton, and that in Sinopec Qingdao Refinery and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4400 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The domestic liquefied petroleum gas (Shandong) market first restrained and then rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic liquefied petroleum gas market was 4466.67 yuan/ton, and the average price of the weekend was 4383.33 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 1.87%, which was 0.9% higher than that of the same period last year. Propylene (Shandong) in China rose steadily this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of propylene (Shandong) was 6,659 yuan/ton per week. On Friday, the average price of propylene (Shandong) was 6,975 yuan/ton per week, with a weekly increase of 1.69%. May Saudi Amy CP: $525 per ton of propane, 10% higher than last month, equivalent to about 4137 yuan per ton of onshore cost. Butane is 530 US dollars per ton, down 5% from last month, equivalent to about 414 yuan per ton on shore.

This week, the trend of international crude oil oscillated, liquefied petroleum gas spot prices fell, bearish market mentality. In addition, the weather is gradually warming up, the market demand is not high, and the enthusiasm for purchasing has been reduced. CPs were introduced in May, although rising, but the increase was not large. The import wharf continues to reverse, and the market is in a situation of oversupply. At present, the market is short of favorable conditions. After the early replenishment downstream, the wait-and-see mood increases, the enthusiasm of entering the market is not high, and one after another, delisting consumes inventory. The shipment situation of the manufacturer is general, and the price center of gravity is lowered.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 18th week (5.6-5.10) of 2019, there were 24 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 3 commodities increased by more than 5% accounted for 4.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were dichloromethane (13.33%), trichloromethane (10.98%) and acetone (5.15%). There are 31 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 4.1% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are hydrochloric acid (-34.43%), sulfuric acid (-21.48%) and ammonium chloride (-8.20%). Average gains and losses this week were -0.76%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propane analysts believe that the current demand is off-season, the market is in a situation of oversupply, coupled with the fluctuation of international oil prices, the downward trend of international spot, and the weak operation of propane under the influence of bad luck. Downstream market entry is more cautious, but the price has approached the cost, weekend prices have been revised back. Horizontal market adjustment is expected to dominate.