Price Trend

This week, the domestic ethanol market was mainly in a weak downward trend. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the price of domestic ethanol market was 5356 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 5333 yuan/ton at the weekend. The price of domestic ethanol market fell by 0.44% in the week, 2.91% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Alcohol market prices continued to decline this week. Parking start-up time of some small plants in Northeast China has not been determined yet. After the accumulation of stable production stocks in large enterprises, the quotation was lowered to stimulate shipment. The parking of ethyl acetate plant in Shandong Yankuang Mine in the lower reaches of Shandong Province continued, and the situation of alcohol extraction was less. Enterprises continuously lowered their quotations in order to seek shipment opportunities; The top-grade prices in Henan region declined slightly, and the prices in Sichuan region were higher than those in Henan Province. Source-to-price, part of Sichuan picks up goods from Henan, and Henan’s shipments are doing well this week; the parking situation of enterprises in eastern China is increasing, and there is no clear attitude about when to drive downstream. The downstream is basically in a light state. Driving enterprises are lowering their offer. Under the influence of cost pressure, one-time reduction of imports in South China is not large. Sources and shipments are in good condition, Guangxi enterprises’quotations remain weak, market transactions continue to explode at low prices, some parking enterprises watch the market more, driving time remains to be inspected, Ganhua plant starts this week, liquor enterprises in downstream areas basically maintain just need to purchase.

3. Future Market ForecastIndustry Chain: Corn: less than 30% of the grain available for sale at the grassroots level in China. With the decrease of the quantity of grain sources at the grassroots level, the purchase price of deep processing enterprises in production areas continues to be strong. China has begun to buy American corn in bulk and will arrive in Hong Kong later. At present, the domestic corn supply is sufficient, but the demand is obviously insufficient. Therefore, we believe that the trend of corn market in the first half of April will continue to be under pressure, and there will be an opportunity to rise after the second half of April. If grain auctions start in May, prices will weaken again. Ethyl acetate: This week, the domestic market of ethyl acetate is obviously weak. Affected by the parking overhaul of some factories, the overall start-up of domestic ethyl acetate plant has decreased, alleviating the market downturn trend, but the downstream demand has continued to weaken. Jiangsu and other areas in East China market are the most obvious, resulting in the poor digestion of market supply and the continuous accumulation of domestic social inventory.

The raw materials in Northeast China are also likely to decline under the impact of the import of American goods. Under the condition of normal plant production and continuous decrease of export volume, the possibility of continuous reduction of enterprise’s offer will not be excluded. Under the influence of cost and downstream two-way shortfall, some enterprises in East China choose to stop and shelter from the market and downstream ethyl acetate loading. In South China, some parking enterprises are in a high market sentiment and liquor demand is gradually entering the off-season. It is expected that there will be downward expectations under the active support of the shipment mentality of start-up enterprises. In summary, ethanol analysts from business associations predict that the domestic ethanol market may decline in the short term.