March 2019 Lead Market Shocks Down

Price Trend

March 2019 # lead ingot Market fluctuated lower, the domestic market average price at the beginning of 17 550 yuan / ton, at the end of the month at 17012.50 yuan / ton, a decline of 3.06%.

II. Market Analysis

Domestic market: In March, Lunpb declined from around $2150 at the beginning of the month to over $2000 at the end of the month. The overall trend of the main lead contracts in Shanghai futures market turned to 1905, with a peak of 17850 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, but then declined rapidly. By the end of the month, it had fallen to 16700 yuan/ton. Affected by this, the monthly decline in the domestic spot market was 3.06%, and the mainstream market price at the end of the month was about 16950-17200 yuan/ton.

International market: This week, the US dollar continued to rise, returned to 97 points above, basic metals first suppressed and then recovered. Under the guidance of the tax reduction of VAT, domestic short positions were liquidated and left the market. Spot performance of various items was stronger than futures. The weekend price rebound recovered some of the decline in the week.

Supply and demand: Washington, March 6, 2008. The U.S. Department of Commerce released data showing lead exports of 5,626,577 kg in December, 13,199,617 kg in November and 47,275,078 kg in the whole year of 2018.

Data released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG) on March 11 show that the global lead supply gap in January increased to 255,000 tons, compared with 16,000 tons in December last year.

Domestic events:

Ministry of Environment: Combining with the Central Environmental Protection Supervision, we should crack down on illegal collection and treatment of waste lead-acid batteries: On March 28, Qiu Qiwen, Director of the Department of Solid Waste and Chemicals of the Ministry of Ecological Environment, said at the release meeting that China has become the largest producer and consumer of lead-acid batteries in the world. In order to further improve the prevention and control of waste lead-acid battery pollution, the Ministry of Ecological Environment jointly issued the Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Waste Lead-acid Battery Pollution, and carried out the pilot work of centralized collection and trans-regional transportation system for lead-acid battery manufacturers. At the same time, the illegal collection and disposal of waste lead-acid batteries will be severely cracked down on in combination with the central ecological environmental protection supervision and special actions for hazardous waste treatment. In addition, in conjunction with relevant departments such as the Ministry of Public Security, we will focus on cracking down on illegal collection and dismantling of waste lead-acid batteries and indigenous lead smelting.

Shandong Province establishes the environmental risk management and control system of lead-acid battery life cycle: In order to promote the clean production and pollution prevention technology progress of lead-acid battery manufacturers and recycled lead enterprises, establish and improve the lead-acid battery recycling system, standardize the collection, transfer and storage of waste lead-acid batteries, Shandong Provincial Department of Ecology and Environment has organized and compiled “Lead-acid battery life cycle pollution”. Technical Specification for Prevention and Control (hereinafter referred to as “Technical Specification”).

Lead-acid battery double giants’revenue grew last year, but their net profit increased and decreased. At present, low-speed electric vehicles such as electric bicycles and tricycles still mainly use lead-acid batteries because of the advantages of lead-acid batteries in safety and cost-effectiveness. Frost & Sullivan, an American consulting firm, predicted in its report that lead-acid battery sales in China’s electric bicycle market would maintain a compound annual growth rate of 5.4% between 2016 and 2021.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

The US dollar is still rebounding strongly in the data set of European and American economy in early next month. On April 1st, VAT in domestic market dropped to 13% and was officially implemented. With the coming Qingming Mini-long Holiday, consumer expectations once again become the focus of the market. Market sentiment has been boosted. It is expected that a rebound will continue, with lead as the main factor.

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