According to the latest monthly report of the International Copper Industry Research Organization (ICsg), the global copper refining market was short of 15,000 tons in October 2018 and 161,000 tons in September 2018. ICSG report shows that in the first 10 months of 2018, the global copper refining market was short of 547,000 tons, compared with 224,000 tons in the same period of the previous year. In October 2018, the global output of refined copper was 1.98 million tons and the consumption was 1.99 million tons. In October, the copper stock gap of China’s tax declaration warehouse was 10,000 tons, and in September, it was 201,000 tons.

This week, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong rose. According to the data of business associations, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong was 3 026 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week and 3 200 yuan/ton at the end of this week. The price increased by 5.73%.

quotations analysis

Products: The price of dichloro rose this week due to tight market supply. At present, the quotation in Shandong is about 3200 yuan/ton, 4300 yuan/ton in Jiangsu and 35050 yuan/ton in Jiangxi. Among them, the price of dichloromethane in Jiangsu Science and Culture Industry is 4300 yuan/ton, the price of dichloromethane in Dongying Jinmao Aluminum Industry is 3200 yuan/ton, the selling price of dichloromethane in Dongying Shuochi Chemical Industry is 3200 yuan/ton, and the price of dichloromethane in Jiangxi Science and Culture Industry is 3500 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: upstream natural gas: natural gas market continued to decline, the market climate is weak. Northwest China and Inner Mongolia have fallen sharply. Near the Spring Festival, downstream production has been gradually reduced or stopped, demand has declined, and the industry’s wait-and-see mood has increased. Downstream refrigerants: Recently, the market of refrigerant R410a in China has been weak and stable, and the quotation of the manufacturer’s bulk water is concentrated between 25000-25500 yuan/ton. In the short term, the good news of refrigerant R410a is lacking, and the market price is expected to be weak and stable.

Forecast for future market

Dichloromethane analysts at business associations believe that the current supply of dichloromethane market is tight, and prices are expected to continue to rise next week.

According to Washington Energy Information, the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) said Tuesday that by the end of this year, OPEC member countries’crude oil production is expected to fall below 3.73 million barrels a day, the lowest monthly output of the organization since February 2015.

In its January short-term energy outlook report, EIA said that the average daily crude oil production of OPEC member countries in 2018 was 32.92 million barrels, which was 150,000 barrels lower than the average daily crude oil production in 2017. OPEC’s daily crude oil production is expected to fall to 30.88 million barrels this year and to 30.9 million barrels by 2020.

The EIA said OPEC’s output cuts this year would be offset by a 2.4 million barrel-a-day increase in non-OPEC countries, particularly the United States and Brazil.

OPEC’s crude oil production in December averaged 33.38 million barrels a day, down 840,000 barrels from November. The latest S&P Global Prussian Energy Information Survey released last week showed that OPEC member countries produced 32.43 million barrels of crude oil a day in December, about 630,000 barrels less than in November.

On January 16, WTI crude oil futures rose to $52.31 per barrel in February, an increase of $0.20. Brent crude oil futures rose to $61.32 per barrel in March, an increase of $0.68.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the market price of propylene in Shandong Province has fallen continuously since January 9, 2019. On January 9, the average price of propylene in Shandong Province was 8306 yuan/ton. By January 14, the average price of propylene in Shandong Province had fallen to 7920 yuan/ton, with a drop of 4.69% in six days.

II. Analytical Review

Products: Recently, the domestic propylene (Shandong) price has fallen sharply. At present, the mainstream market turnover has dropped to 7700-8000 yuan/ton. After the continuous rise of the market in the early period, although the supply and demand have not changed much in the near future, but refinery shipments are not smooth in the early period, and the overall trading mentality is cautious. Refineries are active in delivering goods in order to preserve inventory space during the Spring Festival.

Industry chain: In the upstream, crude oil revenue rose in 2019, the longest trend in nine years. However, due to the long downward momentum and time of crude oil market in the early stage, raw material stocks of enterprises are relatively sufficient, that is, the price of crude oil corresponding to propylene is still low, and the cost support is not obvious. Downstream, polypropylene futures prices continue to be depressed, PP powder profit is not high and there is a downward trend or parking trend. Near the Spring Festival, the downstream enterprises are only purchasing raw materials on the premise that they have sufficient propylene reserves, and some enterprises have begun to consume stocks.

3. Future Market Forecast

In conclusion, propylene refinery shipments are more positive, market sentiment is strong, and trading atmosphere is cautious; upstream crude oil is rising, but the low-price inventory of refinery is still in the early stage, so the support is limited; downstream polypropylene futures prices are low, PP powder has a negative trend or parking trend, so propylene is expected to still have some downward space before the festival, and later sales. Prudence.

Butadiene FOB Korea closed on January 11 at $1169-1171 a ton, up $35 a ton; Butadiene CFR China closed at $1229-1231 a ton, up $30 a ton.

Price Trend

Recently, the domestic butadiene market continued to rise. As of January 10, the price of butadiene was 10,736 yuan/ton, up 12.77% from the same period last year, according to business association monitoring.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Domestic butadiene market prices continue to rise, the market is waiting for the main supplier policy trend, Shandong manufacturers’supply price has been revised back, Sinopec South China, North China, Central China butadiene external supply price increased 600 yuan/ton, Sinopec East China butadiene external supply price increased 900 yuan/ton within two days, Panjin ethylene base price increased 500 yuan/ton, the implementation of 11310 yuan/ton. Downstream purchasing is still prudent and just needed. It is expected that butadiene market prices will fluctuate.

Industry chain: styrene-butadiene rubber: due to the strong butadiene, and because of the expectation of rising prices, there is speculation in the styrene-butadiene rubber market, the business offer slightly improved. Inquiries are better in some areas but tend to be in the middle. The terminal link is always general and the transaction is general. Cis-butadiene rubber: The domestic cis-butadiene rubber market is on the rise. Market offer price slightly increased, some offer price on the high side. On-site inquiry atmosphere is light, high offer makes buyer retreat, spot turnover is scarce. SBS: The price of oil glue in domestic SBS market has increased slightly, and the dry rubber duct has been narrowed.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, the external price is firm, butadiene supply side is tight; on the negative side, the downstream synthetic rubber market is insufficient to follow up. Business Association butadiene analysts predict that short-term domestic butadiene market digestion growth rate is the main concern about market turnover.

On Jan. 8, the inventory of zinc ingots in London LME market was 127 600 tons, with a decrease of 325 tons, representing a change of 0.25%.

On January 8, the LME zinc ingot stock was 127 600 tons, of which 109 225 tons were registered warehouse receipts, 18375 tons were cancelled warehouse receipts, accounting for 14.40%.

First, the price trend

According to the data of the business community, the market price of acrylic acid increased slightly this week, the market performance was more active, the overall inventory of the market was controllable, and the tight supply provided by the manufacturer overhaul provided strong support for the price. 10100-10300 yuan / ton, and the space for negotiation is limited.

Second, the market analysis

Product: Jinan Century Tongda Chemical Co., Ltd. price increased slightly, the acid is 9,500 yuan / ton, refined acid 10,000 yuan / ton; Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Co., Ltd. acrylic acid price between the districts, the acid is 10,100 yuan / ton, refined acid 11,000 yuan / Ton. The specific transaction price, the actual single talk.

Industry chain: Domestic propylene prices have started to fall this week. The market supply is relatively plentiful. Most of them are mainly rigid transactions. The enthusiasm of downstream enterprises has been weakened, and the market mentality has been adjusted. The price is 10,000-10150 yuan/ton.

Third, the market outlook

Acrylic analysts in the business community believe that the domestic supply of acrylic acid is tight, some suppliers have equipment maintenance, and the market price has warmed up. It is expected that the focus of the acrylic market will move upwards in the short term, and the price will fluctuate between communities.

Yesterday, the phenol market continued its upward trend. Sinopec’s bills were raised by 400-500 yuan/ton as scheduled, and the implementation of 11900-12000 yuan/ton. As of yesterday, the market offers were as follows: The mainstream reference for supply in the East China region rose to 12,200 yuan / ton, Yanshan and Shandong regions followed the petrochemical rise, the market offer was at 12,100 yuan / ton, the Henan region has a high price The offer price was high, and the market execution was 12,400 yuan/ton. Although the market in the early period of the previous offer was inconsistent, the East China market continued to rise, and the confidence of the holders increased to 12,400 yuan/ton. At present, the mentality of the national traders continues to improve. Although the petrochemical manufacturers in the department are still heavy, but the holders are still over-reporting, the downstream is still purchasing on demand. It is expected that the market will continue to rise. At present, the offer in East China is 12,200 yuan/ton.