Recently, aluminium prices have excelled. Following last Friday’s sharp rise, this week continued to work hard and again moved near the previous high. As of May 13, the Shanghai Aluminum 1906 contract closed at 14225 yuan/ton, with two consecutive trading gains of 1.6%. At present, the stock of society continues to decline, and the rising price of alumina pushes up the cost line. It is expected that the short-term oscillation of aluminium price will be strong, while the medium and long-term supply pressure will continue to be faced.

The macro-level is not good for the time being.

Previously, the official PMI of manufacturing industry in April was 50.1 and Caixin was 50.2, which were all down from March. At the end of April, the increase of social financing scale was 1.36 trillion yuan, which was 408 billion yuan less than the same period last year. In April, RMB loan was 102 trillion yuan, which was 16.15 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Export growth in April was -2.7% year-on-year, lower than expected by 3.0%, down from 14.2% of the previous value. No agreement was reached in the Sino-US trade negotiations. The United States has imposed tariffs on 200 billion US dollars of imported goods from our country. At the same time, it threatens to start the relevant procedures of taxing 25% of the remaining 325 billion US dollars of imported goods from our country. On the evening of May 13, China introduced counter-measures to raise tariff rates on some imported goods originating from the United States. The tariff rates have been implemented since 10:00 on June 1, 1919.

Cost Line Continues to Move Up

Domestic alumina prices have been declining since September, 2018, reaching a low of 2645 yuan/ton since August 21, 2017 on April 15, this year. The decline in alumina prices has gradually touched the cost line of some smelters. At the same time, with stricter environmental control, production cuts and shutdowns have begun to increase, and the price of alumina has rebounded. Recently, the environmental protection news of Shanxi has been frequently reported. The intersection of Lvliang area and Xiaoyi have been successively reported by the media about the dust and leakage of red mud reservoir. The red mud emission problem of alumina plants in Shanxi Province may face environmental protection inspection, which will cause the market to worry about the decline of alumina supply. Recently, some alumina factories in Shanxi Province have been ordered to suspend production due to environmental protection supervision. Two production lines of 2.8 million tons of alumina have been suspended due to the red mud problem. The remaining two production lines will be suspended in recent days. Xiaoyi Huaqing Aluminum Industry has been forced to suspend production due to the local environmental pollution of 450,000 tons of alumina. The price of alumina continued to rise. As of May 13, the average price of SMM alumina was 2,803 yuan per ton. As the price of alumina rises, the cost line of electrolytic aluminium continues to move up, which supports the price of electrolytic aluminium.

Increased decline in output

The data show that the total domestic production of electrolytic aluminium in the first four months is 11523,000 tons, a decrease of 1.42% compared with the same period last year. In the first four months of 2019, it continued to be affected by the loss reduction of electrolytic aluminium enterprises from June 2018 to February 2019, thus keeping the operating capacity scale relatively low. Since April, although some of the production capacity has gradually resumed, its contribution to the overall production in April is limited. At the end of April, the domestic capacity of electrolytic aluminium was 36.23 million tons, and the average start-up rate of the industry was 88.8%, which was 0.3 percentage points higher than that at the end of March. But after May, the contribution of re-production to production increased gradually. It is estimated that the output of electrolytic aluminium in May will be 3.025 million tons, a decrease of 1.56% compared with the same period last year, and the reduction of output growth rate will be narrowed. Under the steady consumption situation, the domestic stock level of electrolytic aluminium is expected to drop to 1.3 million tons by the end of May.

Generally speaking, in the short run, alumina production is affected by environmental protection in Shanxi, and the rising alumina price pushes up the cost line. At present, the overall profit of electrolytic aluminium has been repaired, which leads to the acceleration of resumption. However, the contribution of short-term output is limited, and the inventory declines rapidly in the peak consumption season. It is expected that the short-term aluminium price will continue to be strong. However, in the medium and long term, the new capacity of alumina is still at a high level during the year. The price of superimposed grid power is lowered, the new production and re-production capacity are increased, the supply pressure will gradually appear, and the price of aluminium is facing pressure.

On May 12, the fluorite commodity index was 100.44, unchanged from yesterday, down 21.22% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 104.10% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite price trend is temporarily stable, the average domestic fluorite price is 2862.5 yuan/ton as of the 13th day. Recently, the domestic fluorite plant started normally, the mine and flotation plant started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is normal, and the recent downstream commodity market is general. For the fluorite market purchasing on demand, the price trend of fluorite market fluctuates. In recent years, the downstream units have been operating poorly, the fluorite spot supply in the field is normal, and the downstream terminal receipt is not good, resulting in a temporary stable market price trend. As of the 13th day, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2700-3000 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2700-3000 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2600-3000 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2800-3000 yuan/ton, and the price trend of fluorite is temporarily stable.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid in downstream fluorite market is temporarily stable. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10 820 yuan/ton as of the 13th day. The price fluctuation of hydrofluoric acid market has a positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant has declined, the demand for fluorite has weakened, and the price fluctuation of fluorite has been running. Recent downstream refrigerant product installations started at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price trend is stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant plant surface starts at 60%, R22 market device start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main production enterprise bulk water factory offer price is between 18,000-18,800 yuan/ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipment. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery quotation is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. But the on-site transaction price does not change very much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is in a general market. In addition, the fluorite market supply is normal. The fluorite price has risen slightly. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the fluorite market price may remain stable.

First, the price trend:

Second, the market analysis: Domestic market: The market price of hydrogenation is higher this week, as of Friday, the mainstream quotation range of hydrogenated benzene market in Shandong area is 4150-4200 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation range of hydrogenation in east China is 4400-4500 yuan/ton.

This week, the construction of hydrocracking enterprises gradually resumed, the construction rate in Shandong has been improved, some devices in Hebei region recently planned to stop short-term maintenance. Industrial chain: Crude oil: Oil prices overall wide concussion this week, multi-day change over 2%. Pure benzene aspect: this week pure benzene domestic fundamentals change little, the market to Yu Hengli will gradually mass production news has been digested, the impact on the mentality began to gradually reduce. Midweek due to the decline of pure benzene in east China port, pure benzene market slightly improved, the overall market slightly upward trend of more than two quarters of foreign centralized maintenance, the expected supply will be reduced. And the United States, South Korea and Taiwan downstream installations are about to end, demand will be further improved, the market is expected to be more optimistic. Crude benzene aspect: this week crude benzene market offer mixed, the market mainstream price in 3200-3400 yuan/ton, the recent pure benzene external disk slightly rebound, the price of hydrogenation slightly increased, but the crude benzene market has a limited boost. As of Friday, Shandong region processing crude benzene quotation stable quotation range in 3200-3300 yuan/ton, Shanxi region processing with crude benzene price stable in 3200-3250 yuan/ton.

Inner Mongolia area processing with crude benzene quotation stable quotation in 3100 yuan/ton.

Third, the trend forecast: This month, Hydrogenation Enterprises will continue to drive, the supply of the field increased, but pure benzene port inventory is still increasing, manufacturers of high cargo blocked, the actual transaction is limited. It is expected that the market consolidation of hydrogenated benzene is the main.

First, the price trend

Domestic BDO Market stable operation, according to the business Community monitoring sample data show that as of May 6, the domestic BDO market average price reported 9064 yuan/ton.

Second, the market analysis Products: Domestic BDO Market stable operation. Pre-overhaul factory driving, the overall start of the load gradually improved, the industry more wait and see the market, the focus of the offer is stable, long about shipping mainly, the real single negotiation is light.

Under the cost pressure, some factories keep the price mentality, but the downstream demand continues to be depressed, the industry’s steady price intention is obvious. On the market side, the BDO market in north China is running steadily, downstream demand is light, the market just needs to pay, the implementation of the main, brokers to steady, follow suit shipping mainly. East China BDO market wait and see finishing, after the festival market news is light, middlemen offer cautious, downstream market enthusiasm in general, the spot supply of cash is sufficient, the trading atmosphere is light, the industry is more follow suit. South China BDO Market consolidation wait and see.

Downstream market enthusiasm is not high, the field inquiry atmosphere is light, the factory delivery of pre-orders mainly, the real single trading difficult to release. Industrial chain: Raw materials, methanol: Northwest Methanol market small shock, Inner Mongolia region, the main manufacturers have not quoted, some manufacturers in the inventory of high. Guanzhong area market Shock to 1980-2020 yuan/ton, factory shipments in general. It is expected that the methanol market in northwest China is mainly volatile or declining in the short term.

Calcium carbide: 51 holiday period, calcium carbide market continued to weaken, production enterprises to step up shipments, with the downstream PVC maintenance centralization, it is expected that in the short term the domestic calcium carbide market continued to reduce the main.

Third, the forecast of the aftermarket On the positive side, upstream calcium carbide cost support. On the negative side, downstream demand is light. At present, the domestic BDO spot supply increased, downstream long about the demand is OK, business society BDO analysts expect that in the short term domestic BDO market stable operation, specifically waiting for downstream demand information guidelines.

On April 28, the PX commodity index was 67.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.38% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 47.53% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Domestic market price trend of p-xylene fell sharply on the 29th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation. Fuhai Created an aromatic hydrocarbon plant started one line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled and Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant put into operation. Other units operated steadily temporarily. As the new plant put into operation, domestic market supply of p-xylene increased and p-xylene increased. Market prices have fallen sharply. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On April 26, the market of p-xylene in Asia rose by 2 US dollars/ton. The closing price was 930-932 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 949-951 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The low price of foreign units has a negative effect on the domestic market price of p-xylene, and the price trend of p-xylene in the market declined sharply.

On April 26, the price of WTI crude oil in June fell to $63.30 per barrel, a decline of $1.91. Brent crude oil in July fell to $72.15 per barrel, a decline of $2.20. The price of crude oil declined, losing some cost support for the price of downstream petrochemical products, and the price of paraxylene declined. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA price trend shocks 29 days, the average price of East China bid in the vicinity of 6750-6850 yuan/ton, as of 28 days domestic PTA start-up rate is about 78%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 91%, downstream production and sales rate maintained high, but PTA market price changes little, the PX market price is expected to be lower in the later period.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, DOP prices in East China fell this week, and overall DOP prices fell. As of April 26, the price of DOP in East China was 7950.00 yuan/ton, down 2.05% from 8116.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, and 6.93% from the same period last year. 总体DOP华东本周行情下跌。

II. Market Analysis

Product analysis

DOP market demand is general this week, but the plasticizer enterprises DOP equipment start-up rate remains high, the overall market supply and demand for the performance of market demand decline, while adequate supply, overall plasticizer DOP market difficult to maintain, the May Day holiday is imminent, downstream customers to carry out production stocks, in the short term demand has warmed up, DOP market is expected to stabilize before May 1.

Analysis of Industrial Chain

As can be seen from the chart above, octanol prices fell sharply this week, with octanol falling by 1.06% this week; phthalic anhydride prices fluctuated steadily, overall DOP costs fell, overall DOP prices fell, and DOP still has downward pressure in the future.

3. Future Market Forecast

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business association, believes that the current DOP market demand is general, plasticizer manufacturers DOP equipment start-up rate maintains a high level, sufficient supply, overall demand for DOP market is negative; raw material octanol prices and phthalic anhydride prices are stable, raw material prices are falling, DOP costs are falling, the market is negative; May 1st is a short-term holiday, downstream customers production stocks, short-term demand There is a slight rebound in the DOP market, good for DOP market, downstream plastic market has recently rebounded, to promote DOP, good for DOP market is mixed, future plasticizer DOP market showed a warming demand, but not enough to support the rise in DOP prices, DOP price volatility in the future maintained stability.

China’s domestic potassium chloride market is temporarily stable and weak. Spring fertilizer trade is in the end stage, just need to decline. Northeast China is gradually entering the end, market prices have fallen slightly, and the new single transaction center of gravity is low signal release.

The first arrival quotation of 60% Jing official national railway in domestic potassium salt lake is 2350 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of traders is 2220-2250 yuan/ton.

Domestic import 62% white potassium mainstream port price 2340-2380 yuan/ton, Russian red 2260-2280 yuan/ton, large particles 2430-2470 yuan/ton, the actual transaction is a single negotiation. New sources of frontier trade may be crossing the shore this week. 62% of the white potassium ports are priced at 2150-2180 yuan/ton. There are not many surplus sources of big grains in squid circles and the price is more than 2370 yuan/ton. However, the new orders are not active and small orders are dominant, and the early orders are still centralized.

On April 22, the fluorite commodity index was 98.77, down 0.35 points from yesterday, down 22.53% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 100.71% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite price trend is temporarily stable. The average domestic fluorite price is 2815 yuan/ton as of 23 days. Recently, the domestic fluorite plant has been operating normally, the mine and flotation plant have been operating normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is normal, and the recent downstream market is general. For the fluorite market, the price trend of fluorite market fluctuates. In recent years, the downstream units started poorly, the fluorite spot supply in the field was normal, and the downstream terminal receiving situation was not good, which led to a slight decline in market price trend. As of the 23rd, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2700-3000 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2600-3000 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-3000 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2700-3000 yuan/ton, and the price trend of fluorite remained volatile.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in downstream fluorite is stable temporarily. As of 23 days, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10400 yuan/ton. The fluctuation of the market price of hydrofluoric acid has a certain positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant has declined, the demand for fluorite has weakened, and the price of fluorite has oscillated. Recent downstream refrigerant products start at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid products prices slightly lower. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water factory offer price is between 18,000-18,800 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery quotation is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. But the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is in a general market. In addition, the fluorite market supply is normal. Fluorite prices are stable temporarily. Business analyst Chen Ling believes that the fluorite market price may maintain a volatile trend.

On April 21, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 94.22, which was the same as yesterday. It was 32.91% lower than the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and 75.82% higher than the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid rose slightly on the 22nd. Up to now, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10400 yuan/ton, and the domestic start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. Enterprises reflect that the supply of hydrofluoric acid on the spot has declined. Recently, the market situation of hydrofluoric acid is general. Because of the high raw material fluorite, some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers limit production and guarantee prices, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is small. The price has gone up. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 10,000-10,500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 10,000-11,000 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices rose slightly, spot supply decreased slightly, but demand was not actually good, hydrofluoric acid market prices rose.

Recent downstream refrigerant products start at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid products prices rose slightly. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water factory offer price is between 18,000-18,800 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery market has increased. The domestic market price trend of R134a is not good, the start-up rate of production enterprises remains low, the refrigerant market demand is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Recently, due to the poor condition of goods, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is shaking.

Refrigerant on-site transactions are general, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is normal, but the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has decreased, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may rise slightly.

Price Trend

This week, the domestic ethanol market was mainly in a weak downward trend. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the price of domestic ethanol market was 5356 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 5333 yuan/ton at the weekend. The price of domestic ethanol market fell by 0.44% in the week, 2.91% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Alcohol market prices continued to decline this week. Parking start-up time of some small plants in Northeast China has not been determined yet. After the accumulation of stable production stocks in large enterprises, the quotation was lowered to stimulate shipment. The parking of ethyl acetate plant in Shandong Yankuang Mine in the lower reaches of Shandong Province continued, and the situation of alcohol extraction was less. Enterprises continuously lowered their quotations in order to seek shipment opportunities; The top-grade prices in Henan region declined slightly, and the prices in Sichuan region were higher than those in Henan Province. Source-to-price, part of Sichuan picks up goods from Henan, and Henan’s shipments are doing well this week; the parking situation of enterprises in eastern China is increasing, and there is no clear attitude about when to drive downstream. The downstream is basically in a light state. Driving enterprises are lowering their offer. Under the influence of cost pressure, one-time reduction of imports in South China is not large. Sources and shipments are in good condition, Guangxi enterprises’quotations remain weak, market transactions continue to explode at low prices, some parking enterprises watch the market more, driving time remains to be inspected, Ganhua plant starts this week, liquor enterprises in downstream areas basically maintain just need to purchase.

3. Future Market ForecastIndustry Chain: Corn: less than 30% of the grain available for sale at the grassroots level in China. With the decrease of the quantity of grain sources at the grassroots level, the purchase price of deep processing enterprises in production areas continues to be strong. China has begun to buy American corn in bulk and will arrive in Hong Kong later. At present, the domestic corn supply is sufficient, but the demand is obviously insufficient. Therefore, we believe that the trend of corn market in the first half of April will continue to be under pressure, and there will be an opportunity to rise after the second half of April. If grain auctions start in May, prices will weaken again. Ethyl acetate: This week, the domestic market of ethyl acetate is obviously weak. Affected by the parking overhaul of some factories, the overall start-up of domestic ethyl acetate plant has decreased, alleviating the market downturn trend, but the downstream demand has continued to weaken. Jiangsu and other areas in East China market are the most obvious, resulting in the poor digestion of market supply and the continuous accumulation of domestic social inventory.

The raw materials in Northeast China are also likely to decline under the impact of the import of American goods. Under the condition of normal plant production and continuous decrease of export volume, the possibility of continuous reduction of enterprise’s offer will not be excluded. Under the influence of cost and downstream two-way shortfall, some enterprises in East China choose to stop and shelter from the market and downstream ethyl acetate loading. In South China, some parking enterprises are in a high market sentiment and liquor demand is gradually entering the off-season. It is expected that there will be downward expectations under the active support of the shipment mentality of start-up enterprises. In summary, ethanol analysts from business associations predict that the domestic ethanol market may decline in the short term.