Price Trend

The propane market fell first and then rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average propane market price was 3820 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was 3757.5 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 1.64%, 12.62% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week, the domestic propane market shocks and falls, the market turnover atmosphere is general. As of June 28, the propane self-use of Dongming Petrochemical Company in Shandong Province was suspended, while the production of Qingdao Refinery and Chemical Company in Sinopec was suspended for the time being. The ex-factory price of propane in Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group is 3800 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group is 3700 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Huifeng Petrochemical Company is 3870 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Company is 3780 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong Binzhou Dayou Group is 3750 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price of propane in Shandong Zhonghai Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3680 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The domestic liquefied petroleum gas (Shandong) market rose narrowly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic liquefied petroleum gas market was 3783.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 3800 yuan/ton. Within the week, the increase was 0.44%, and the price fell by 8.67% compared with the same period last year. Domestic propylene (Shandong) rose steadily this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic propylene market was 7612 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, the average price was 7666 yuan/ton. Within the week, the increase was 0.71%, and the price fell by 7.31% compared with the same period last year. May CP, Saudi Arabia: The prices of propane and butane have all fallen sharply. Propane was $430 per ton, down 95 per ton from the previous month; butane was $415 per ton, down 115 per ton from the previous month. This week’s rise in international crude oil boosted the liquefied petroleum gas market and led to higher prices. But at present, the weather is gradually warming up, the market demand is not high, the enthusiasm for purchasing has been reduced, coupled with the fall in July CP price has become a foregone conclusion, negative market mentality, downstream mostly wait-and-see, propane market is weak. Price shocks have fallen.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 25th week (6.24-6.28) of 2019, there were 30 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which more than 5% increased, accounting for 3.6% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were calcium carbide (7.55%), crude benzene (6.50%) and hydrochloric acid (5.26%). There are 26 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are hydrogen peroxide (-7.36%), butanone (-5.93%) and ammonium sulfate (-4.42%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.18%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propane analysts believe that the current demand is still in the off-season, the market is in a situation of oversupply, the fall in CPs prices in July has become a foregone conclusion, downstream market entry caution is mostly wait-and-see. It is expected that the market will still fall in the future.

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the market price of lithium carbonate in East China showed a downward trend in June, and the market atmosphere has not improved since the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. On June 26, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 70,000 yuan/ton, which decreased by -0.68% at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month. On June 26, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 78800 yuan/ton, which decreased by -1.3% at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month.

By observing the market changes, the price of lithium carbonate remained relatively stable in early June, but after the end of the Dragon Boat Festival, the price began to fall, and the manufacturers said that the order situation in June was lower than in May, and the atmosphere of downstream purchase of lithium carbonate was also relatively lower. The price of lithium carbonate slowly and steadily recovered in the middle of the next month. Because the purchasing volume in the middle and lower reaches of the month was less, it was usually purchased at the end of the month or at the beginning of the month, so the transaction price remained stable and unchanged. The price of lithium carbonate declined in late June, while sales of battery-grade lithium carbonate were not as good as industrial-grade lithium carbonate, and orders continued to decline in July.

At present, the transition period of subsidies recession in lithium carbonate market is over, and the recent bulk bill transactions are scarce. It is obvious that the market demand is not as good as before. This month, the comprehensive price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is between 65,000 and 75,000 yuan/ton, and that of battery grade lithium carbonate is between 74,000 and 85,000 yuan/ton.

According to analysts of business association Lithium Carbonate, from the current market situation, the production of high nickel ternary materials by ternary materials manufacturers has been reduced or delayed, which has led to the weakening of upstream demand. Coupled with the decline in market demand, lithium carbonate prices are expected to operate at a low level in the short term.

Price data

According to the data from the business associations’list, the domestic sulfur market price has been running steadily this week. The average price of granular sulfur manufactured in China this week is about 996.67 yuan/ton, down 8% from the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: At the beginning of this week, the price of sulphur market was stable and the market performance was quiet. This week, refineries in various regions in China maintained low inventory shipments. According to their own shipments, they operated steadily in a multi-dimensional manner. Downstream demand was weak, and on-site negotiations were mostly deadlocked and wait-and-see. Up to 21 days, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in Shandong area of Sinopec is about 1020-1040 yuan/ton, and that of liquid sulfur is 900-990 yuan/ton; that of solid sulfur in North China is 830-960 yuan/ton, and that of liquid sulfur is 800-910 yuan/ton; that of solid sulfur in East China is 940-1030 yuan/ton, and that of liquid sulfur is 900-990 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: downstream sulfuric acid market is stable and small, price trend is slightly lower, shipment is weak and stable, market turnover is general, downstream market demand is flat, or will continue to be weak and stable trend. The favorable conditions for the downstream sulfuric acid market are limited, and the businessmen are mainly cautious and wait-and-see, while the support for the upstream sulfur market is weak.

3. Future Market Forecast

Sulphur analysts from the Business Society Chemical Branch believe that there is a lack of substantive information guidance on the market at present, the short-term sulfur market is difficult to improve, and it is expected that the latter period will be stable and medium-term consolidation.

I. Overall Trend

This week (6.17-6.21) polyethylene showed a narrow downward trend. The average price of LDPE 2426H in East China monitored by business associations was about 8287.5 yuan/ton; the average price of HDPE 5000S was about 8800 yuan/ton; and the average price of LLDPE 7042 was about 7800 yuan/ton. As of June 21, the price of LLDPE in East China showed a trend of falling first and then rising this week. LDPE prices showed a trend of falling first and then stabilizing this week. HDPE prices showed a steady trend this week.

On June 23, the LLDPE commodity index was 74.70, unchanged from yesterday, down 36.46% from the peak of 117.56 points in the cycle (2013-12-11), and up 0.86% from the low of 74.06 points on June 20, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

On June 23, the LDPE commodity index was 64.49, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a new low in the cycle, down 43.10% from its peak of 113.33 on December 08, 2013. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

On June 23, the HDPE commodity index was 71.33, the same as yesterday, hitting a new low in the cycle, down 30.29% from the highest point of 102.33 on July 24, 2014. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Upstream: This week’s international oil price surge. Geographical tensions, supply contraction expectations are the main positive factors, but IEA downward demand expectations restrain the increase. On Monday (June 17), WTI crude oil July futures settled at $51.93 a barrel, down $0.58 from the previous trading day, trading range $51.59-52.73; Brent crude oil August futures settled at $60.94 a barrel, down $1.07 from the previous trading day, trading range $60.74-62.37. On Friday (June 21), WTI crude oil August futures settled at $57.43 a barrel, up $0.36 from the previous trading day, trading range $56.66-57.98; Brent crude oil August futures settled at $65.20 a barrel, up $0.75 from the previous trading day, trading range $64.00-65.76.

Manufacturer dynamics: This week, the overall start-up rate of agricultural film enterprises is about 12%, which is the same as last week. The start-up time of agricultural film enterprises is mainly in August, and the earliest device restart time is in August. Although there is a part of the bargain reserve behavior, but the long-term expectations are weak, the terminal still maintains the idea of bargain purchase.

Futures Trend: On June 21, polyethylene futures L1909 main contract opening price 7775, maximum price 7800, minimum price 7680, closing price 7740, pre-settlement price 7700, settlement price 7740, up 40, 0.52%, turnover 507906, position 652322, daily increase warehouse-17496. (Quote unit: yuan/ton)

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 20th week of 2019 (5.20-5.24), there were 6 kinds of commodities in the price rising and falling list of rubber and plastic plates. The top three commodities were EPS (1.02%), PP (0.99%) and HDPE (0.75%). There are 6 kinds of goods falling in the ring ratio, one of which is more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products of the first three declines are PET (-5.77%), PA6 (-2.78%) and natural rubber (-2.45%). Average gains and losses this week were -0.66%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Looking forward to the future market, business analysts believe that the current two barrels of oil inventory has fallen to a low level, and the factory may need to purchase just next week after a low price replenishment in the early stage, but the overall market is in the off-season and the market demand is not large. Horizontal consolidation is expected to dominate in the near future.

I. Market Review

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite market price trend rose this week, with the weekend price of 3075 yuan/ton, 0.41% higher than the beginning of the week price of 3062.5 yuan/ton, 18.73% higher than the previous year, and the recent fluorite price trend rose slightly.

II. Market Analysis

Domestic fluorite prices rose slightly this week, and the operating rate of fluorite plants did not change much, but downstream demand improved. The spot supply of fluorite was tight. The price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2900-3100 yuan/ton by the end of the weekend. The mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiations in Fujian was 3000-3300 yuan/ton, 97 fluorite wet powder prices in Henan were 3000-3200 yuan/ton, and 9 fluorite wet powder prices in Jiangxi area. 7. The price of fluorite wet powder ranges from 3000 to 3300 yuan/ton, and the price trend of fluorite has risen slightly. Fluorite field started to maintain a normal level, recent downstream demand has improved, but the site reflects a tight spot, affected by many factors, fluorite prices rose slightly.

Industry chain: This week, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream fluorite market rose slightly. By the end of the week, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 1,1960 yuan/ton. This week, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream market rose by 0.67%. The price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream market was a good influence of the fluorite market, and the price trend of fluorite rose. Recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, downstream refrigerant product unit operating rate is not ideal, upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, refrigerant market trading market is cold, R22 refrigerant unit surface operating situation is not high, R22 market unit operating rate is low, the main production enterprise bulk water factory offer price is between 18000-18500 yuan/ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water spot. Most cylinders are shipped in small quantities. In addition, the actual demand side of the market is low, and the shipping market trend is poor. The domestic market price of R134a has slightly declined, the start-up rate of production enterprises has not changed much, the market demand for refrigerants has weakened, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the general downstream start-up, the market demand for hydrofluoric acid in the upstream has improved, and the price of fluorite market has risen.

Industry: This week, the upstream fluorite industry started to work normally, the price of hydrofluoric acid rose slightly, the spot supply of fluorite products was tight, and the price trend of fluorite market was rising.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the future, the domestic fluorite plant started to work normally in the near future, the market price of the downstream hydrofluoric acid industry rose slightly, and the market of the downstream refrigeration industry improved slightly. Chen Ling, a fluorite analyst with business associations, believed that the manufacturers in the fluorite field reflected the shortage of supply, and expected that prices would rise slightly in the later period, or the price would be around 3100 yuan/ton.

On June 17, the fluorite commodity index was 107.46, up 1.98 points from yesterday, down 15.71% from 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 118.37% from 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite price trend has risen, up to 18 days, the average domestic fluorite price is 3075 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic fluorite plant started normally, the mine and flotation plant in the field started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is slightly tense, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream has recently risen. For the fluorite market, the price of fluorite market has risen on demand. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is normal, terminal downstream pick-up situation improved, resulting in rising market price trend. As of the 18th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2900-3100 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiations in Fujian was 3000-3200 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2900-3200 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 3000-3200 yuan/ton.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in downstream fluorite is rising. As of the 18th day, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 11890 yuan/ton. The fluctuation of the market price of hydrofluoric acid has a positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general. The demand for fluorite has weakened and the price of fluorite has fluctuated. Recent downstream refrigerant product installations started at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price trend is stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water out of the factory offer price is between 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery quotation is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. But the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is in a general market. In addition, the fluorite market supply is normal and the price of fluorite is rising. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may rise slightly.

I. Price Trend Chart of Sodium Pyrosulfite in China

According to the monitoring of business associations, the domestic price of sodium pyrosulfite continued to decline slightly this week. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 1966.67 yuan/ton, while the average price at the end of the week was 1933.33 yuan/ton, down 1.70%.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the market price of sodium pyrosulfite continues to be weak at the bottom. The market price range of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite is 1800-2100 yuan/ton. Most of the prices are concentrated in the vicinity of 1950 yuan/ton. Enterprises have stable production, relatively adequate inventory, mainly to complete the orders of old customers, new orders increase is limited, the overall fast-in and fast-out. (The above prices refer to the foreign quotations of the mainstream domestic enterprises, some of which are not reported for the time being. The prices are for reference only. They have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact the manufacturers for consultation.

Industry chain: Soda price continued to be weak in the upstream this week, and sulfur price rose slightly. Overall, processing costs are still relatively low and fluctuated slightly. It is difficult to support the rebound of domestic sodium pyrosulfite price.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that the peak demand season has not yet arrived, processing costs continue to be low, trade entities are cautious in purchasing and selling, and the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite is warming and pressured in the short term.

Price Trend

This week (6.10-6.14) the price of NBR declined weakly. At the beginning of the week, the average price of NBR was 18,800 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the average price of NBR was 18,500 yuan/ton, down 1.6%.

II. Market Trend Analysis

Product supply and demand: This week, the domestic nitrile butadiene plant is running normally. According to the business association, Lanzhou Petrochemical’s 65,000 tons/year plant has been started normally, 15,000 tons/year nitrile butadiene plant has been converted to military industry, and 50,000 tons/year nitrile butadiene plant has started to produce 3305E/3308E. At present, nitrile butadiene rubber 3305E is reported to 17700 yuan/ton, N41E is reported to 17200 yuan/ton, 3308E is reported to 182 yuan/ton, and the price is sold; Ningbo Shunze’s 65,000 tons/year assembly. For production, 28 and 33 series NBR have stable ex-factory prices, currently reported at around 18,500 yuan/ton; 41 series NBR implements a single talk policy. Demand downstream is weak, traders follow the market to deliver goods, the market has a certain drag.

Industry chain: raw material butadiene prices fell slightly this week, the cost of NBR price formation negative. Butadiene dropped 2.33% at 8,590 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 8,390 yuan/ton at the end of the week, according to the business association.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Xu Xiaokun, an analyst with business associations, believes that on the one hand, the decline in raw material butadiene prices has created a negative impact on the NBR market; on the other hand, the overall market demand is weak, and the price of NBR in the future is expected to show a weak state.

Price Trend

According to data from business associations, the market of DMF fell this week, with the average price of DMF at the beginning of the week being 4500.00 yuan/ton, and the average price of DMF at the end of the week being 4416.67 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.85%. Current prices fell by 37.20% compared with last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: DMF market fell this week, mainstream manufacturers in East China quoted between 4400 and 4600 yuan / ton, mainstream manufacturers in Guangdong at 4700 yuan / ton. The DMF plant of Tetramethylene Chemical Company stopped for maintenance on May 24. DMF stocks are abundant and prices are falling.

Industry chain: The upstream methanol market was affected by macro and port inventory. The price at the beginning of the week was 2334.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week was 2234.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.28%. The start-up rate of domestic pulp manufacturers fell, purchasing attitudes were low, and DMF prices fell.

3. Future Market Forecast

The upstream methanol market has been declining recently, but the downstream demand is general, so business associations DMF product analysts believe that the short-term DMF market is mainly weak consolidation.

Price Trend

Domestic aggregated MDI market continued to decline. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the average market price of aggregated MDI was 17 750 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 13 625 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price of aggregated MDI fell 23.24% in the month, which was 15.48% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic aggregate MDI market prices fell sharply all the way in May. Ring prices fell by about 5,000 yuan/ton from the end of April. At present, the market price is around 12,500 yuan/ton for Shanghai goods and 13,500 yuan/ton for Wanhua goods. Compared with the “boom” in January-April, the market fell into a lonely “lick wound” state in May. After the return of May holidays, the market began to explore the mode, the social inventory is large, the number of people selling goods is larger than the number of buyers, the demand consumption situation is very poor, the market turnover is very bad under the mentality of buying up and not buying down. Despite the subsequent introduction of a stop-drop policy by BASF manufacturers to adjust the guiding price, Wanhua manufacturers “silently”, and Koth founders “go their own way” continue to reduce the weekly guiding price, falling at an unstoppable rate. Towards the end of the month, with the publication of listing prices, manufacturers have little market intentions, business mentality generally returns to rationality, the hard bubble off-season in June is approaching gradually, maintenance devices are returning to production, new sources of market “surge” into the market, coupled with a large number of social stocks accumulated in the first half of the year, downstream demand consumption is much worse than in previous years, and aggregated MDI market prices are expected to face succession again. Continue to explore the possibilities and watch the latest developments of manufacturers and businesses.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: the price of pure benzene oscillated upward in the month. Earlier this month, the impact of Tehrer’s comments in the United States, commodity prices and oil prices fell, leading to a weakening of the focus of pure benzene, East China once fell below 4400 yuan per ton. In mid-month, Hengli’s shipment tended to be stable, which compensated for the reduction in maintenance of Northwest equipment. The price of East China remained stable near 4500 yuan/ton. Affected by industry meetings, market turnover is weak. In late January, the decline of port stocks gave the market an opportunity to speculate. Meanwhile, the large increase in external prices also supported the domestic pure benzene rise.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in May 2019, there were 21 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 9 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 12.2% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The top three commodities were epichlorohydrin (11.73%), nitric acid (9.51%) and butadiene (9.15%). There are 48 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 31.1% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines are hydrochloric acid (-60.56%), sulfuric acid (-42.25%) and TDI (-26.21%). This month’s average rise and fall was -3.9%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Perspective: The market is constantly emerging, the demand side is difficult to get better, and most of the future market prices are expected to decline negatively. Business Aggregate MDI analysts expect that short-term domestic aggregate MDI market prices are mainly weak consolidation, closely watching the market turnover and MDI related products market situation.