Price Trend

The domestic dimethyl ether market rose as a whole in January. At the beginning of the month, the average domestic dimethyl ether market price was 3220 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 3406.67 yuan/ton. The increase rate was 5.8% in the month, and the price fell 22.8% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: The market of dimethyl ether rose in January as a whole. The market climate has changed from weak to strong. Hebei Yutai, Qinyang Shengxin, Henan Lankao Huitong, and other manufacturers do not quote parking prices at present, the overall market start-up rate slipped last month. As of January 31, the ex-factory price of Henan Yima Xinyuan dimethyl ether was 3480 yuan/ton, Hebei Jichun Chemical Co., Ltd. was 3700 yuan/ton, Shandong Dezhou Shengdeyuan Co., Ltd. was 3700 yuan/ton, and Shanxi Orchid Science and Technology Venture Co., Ltd. was 3420 yuan/ton.

In the aspect of industry chain, the trend of domestic methanol market differentiation is obvious in January. At the beginning of the month, the price of methanol was 2188 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of methanol was 2212 yuan/ton. The price of methanol rose by 1.10% in the month, which was 30.95% lower than that of the same period last year. In January, domestic liquefied gas market prices rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic liquefied gas market was 3900 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month it was 3900 yuan/ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month. The price was 12.85% lower than that of the same period last year.

At the beginning of this month, the liquefied petroleum gas market rose sharply, resulting in a continuous upward trend in market prices. In January, the domestic dimethyl ether Market was weaker and lower. With the resumption of production in early New Year’s Day, the supply of domestic dimethyl ether Market increased sharply. The end-users and downstream users mainly purchased on demand, the overall contradiction between supply and demand in the market was tense, and the warehouse pressure of most enterprises was on the high side. At the end of the month, with the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the number of end-user purchases increased sharply, but most manufacturers have no inventory, the market supply has been reduced, the trading atmosphere is booming, and the Pre-Inventory of some manufacturers has been released substantially, which promotes the overall price of the market to rise broadly.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are 10 kinds of commodities rising annually in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in January 2019, among which 4 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities are WTI crude oil (19.42%), Brent crude oil (14.59%) and MTBE (industrial grade) (6.69%). There are five kinds of commodities falling in the ring ratio, three of which fall more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in the plate. The products of the first three declines are liquefied natural gas (-29.81%), petroleum coke (-9.97%) and coke (-5.12%). This month’s average rise and fall was 0.77%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Dimethyl ether business analysts believe that: the Spring Festival is approaching, with downstream users delisting, the dimethyl ether Market is expected to be weak in the short term consolidation trend.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of Jan. 29, the average price of domestic aggregated MDI market was 12900 yuan/ton, and the overall market was running smoothly.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic aggregate MDI market is running steadily. North China and East China Wanhua negotiated 12600-12800 yuan/ton, Shanghai negotiated 12400-12500 yuan/ton, South China Wanhua negotiated 12800 yuan/ton and Shanghai negotiated 12500 yuan/ton. Market supply and demand are two weak, inquiry atmosphere is weak, the intention of middlemen is not high, Wanhua Crescent Listing was recently launched, the market is more cautious and wait-and-see, short-term market operation is light and stable.

On the market side, the aggregate MDI market in North China is running steadily. At present, the market festival atmosphere is strong, there are few active offers, and sporadic offers are stable. Wanhua is listed, and the industry holds a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market. East China aggregate MDI market is weak and stable. Terminal delisting ahead of time, market inquiries are rare, on-site operators are less motivated to deliver goods, and there are few active offers. The market atmosphere of aggregate MDI in South China is weak. Middlemen and downstream are leaving the market one after another. The festival atmosphere in the market is strong, and most middlemen have no quotation.

Industry chain: raw materials, East China aniline Market horizontal consolidation. Before the festival, most of East China’s enterprises are mainly contract-based. Some enterprises have limited market volume, and downstream purchasing is mainly on demand. The market trading atmosphere is still acceptable.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Viewpoint: On the positive side, the factory has a limited capacity, the market is very tight spot, and the overhaul and recovery device has a low load. On the bearish side, terminal demand is weak, and the enthusiasm of downstream and middlemen to hoard goods is weakened after price increases. Business Association aggregate MDI analysts expect that in the short term aggregate MDI market rise and fall dilemma, mainly stalemate.

Price Trend

The propane market fell slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price of propane was 4142.5 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was 4107.5 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 0.84%, 17.23% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week, the domestic propane market fell slightly, and the trading atmosphere was general. As of January 25, propane of Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Company and Shandong Zhonghai Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. were not quoted for the time being. The ex-factory price of propane in Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group is 4200 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group is 4100 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Huifeng Petrochemical Company is 4130 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Company is 4150 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong Binzhou Dayou Group is 4150 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price of propane in Sinopec Qingdao Refinery and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3900 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: This week, the domestic liquefied gas market dropped broadly. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic liquefied gas market was 4100 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 3890 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 5.12%, 17.7% compared with the same period last year. This week domestic propylene (Shandong) fell successively, and the average price of enterprises at the beginning of the week was also high at 8070 yuan per ton; the average price of enterprises at the weekend was low at 7810 yuan per ton; the price declined continuously after stabilizing in the week, with a drop of 3.22%. Saudi CP in January: $430 per ton of propane, down 15% from last month. Butane is $420/ton, up 5% from last month. This week, the liquefied petroleum gas market has fallen in succession, affecting the market mentality. The downstream bearish atmosphere is strong, just in need of replenishment, the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high, and the overall atmosphere is general. The shipment of manufacturer is blocked, coupled with the approaching Spring Festival, inventory pressure, profit delivery.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are 14 kinds of commodities on the rise-fall list of commodity prices in the chemical sector in the 03rd week of 2019 (1.21-1.25). Among them, there are 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The first three commodities with an increase are ethylene (9.38%), sulfuric acid (7.83%) and epichlorohydrin (4.59%). There are 25 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 1.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are dichloromethane (-6.04%), 1,4-butanediol (-4.83%) and sulfur (-4.19%). Average gains and losses this week were -0.2%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propane analysts of business associations believe that the liquefied gas market is still weak, the market is lack of positive, February CP expected to decline, coupled with the approaching Spring Festival, manufacturers storage and drainage demand. The market is expected to decline steadily in the future.

Melbourne, Jan. 23, Australian mining giant OZ Minerals announced Wednesday that gold and copper production in 2018 was better than expected, and raised its gold production forecast for 2019 because of better ore grade.

The company said gold production in 2018 was 135,647 ounces, of which 130,856 ounces were produced by the large Prominent Hill mine in southern Australia. Prominent Hill’s annual gold production was earlier estimated to be between 120,000 and 130,000 ounces.

In 2017, the mine produced 126,713 ounces of gold.

Oz said copper production in 2018 was 115,998 tons, of which 110,111 tons were from the large Prominent Hill mine, higher than the previously estimated range of 10-110,000 tons. The mine’s copper output in 2017 was 112,008 tons.

OZ Minerals said its gold production forecast for 2019 rose to 115-125,000 ounces, compared with the previous range of 100-110,000 ounces.

On January 23, the price of acetone in Europe was stable, and the price of FD in Northwest Europe was 647.5-652.5 euros/ton.

On January 21, the rare earth index was 345 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 65.50% from its cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 27.31% from its lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium in rare earth metals is 398,000 yuan/ton, 1,655,000 yuan/ton and 660,000 yuan/ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides is 315,000 yuan/ton; dysprosium oxide is 1.21 million yuan/ton; praseodymium oxide is 397,500 yuan/ton; and neodymium oxide is 315,000 yuan/ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys is 399.5 million yuan per ton, and the average price of dysprosium and iron alloys is 1.22 million yuan per ton.

Recently, 12 departments have seriously dealt with illegal enterprises such as reselling illegal rare earth minerals, resulting in the cold trade in the domestic rare earth market. Some commodity prices in the rare earth market have declined, mainly concentrated in Praseodymium-Neodymium alloys and neodymium oxides. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to environmental protection supervision in the whole country. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazard of some products, which makes environmental protection supervision stricter. Under stringent environmental protection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a decline in the market of rare earth oxides, making the price of rare earth products firm. Especially for some mainstream rare earth oxides, the supply performance is tight, the price trend of some commodities in the rare earth market is stable, the willingness of large enterprise groups to limit production in the near future, the market of rare earth has improved, but for the pricing of products, major manufacturers are cautious to wait and see. Recent rare earth export market is general, resulting in a decline in imports, which has a negative impact on the rare earth market. However, due to the limited volume, the price trend of some rare earth products has declined, but the price trend of most products is temporarily stable.

Eight inspecting groups composed of Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Natural Resources and other ministries went to various places and launched special inspecting actions against eight provinces and regions of Inner Mongolia, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Fujian, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi and Sichuan, which are the main producing areas of rare earths. Prior to this, six departments of Jiangxi Province, a major producer of rare earth, jointly issued a special action document on cracking down on rare earth blacks, and conducted special supervision from September 2018 to January 2019. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and the trading market of the rare earth industry has been cold.

Rare earth analysts of business associations expect that the domestic environmental stringent inspection will not decrease in the near future, and the domestic reorganization of the order of the inhalation industry will have a certain positive impact on the rare earth industry. However, near the Spring Festival, the turnover of the rare earth industry is limited, and the turnover of the rare earth industry is cold. The price trend of the rare earth market is expected to decline steadily.

According to the latest monthly report of the International Copper Industry Research Organization (ICsg), the global copper refining market was short of 15,000 tons in October 2018 and 161,000 tons in September 2018. ICSG report shows that in the first 10 months of 2018, the global copper refining market was short of 547,000 tons, compared with 224,000 tons in the same period of the previous year. In October 2018, the global output of refined copper was 1.98 million tons and the consumption was 1.99 million tons. In October, the copper stock gap of China’s tax declaration warehouse was 10,000 tons, and in September, it was 201,000 tons.

This week, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong rose. According to the data of business associations, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong was 3 026 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week and 3 200 yuan/ton at the end of this week. The price increased by 5.73%.

quotations analysis

Products: The price of dichloro rose this week due to tight market supply. At present, the quotation in Shandong is about 3200 yuan/ton, 4300 yuan/ton in Jiangsu and 35050 yuan/ton in Jiangxi. Among them, the price of dichloromethane in Jiangsu Science and Culture Industry is 4300 yuan/ton, the price of dichloromethane in Dongying Jinmao Aluminum Industry is 3200 yuan/ton, the selling price of dichloromethane in Dongying Shuochi Chemical Industry is 3200 yuan/ton, and the price of dichloromethane in Jiangxi Science and Culture Industry is 3500 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: upstream natural gas: natural gas market continued to decline, the market climate is weak. Northwest China and Inner Mongolia have fallen sharply. Near the Spring Festival, downstream production has been gradually reduced or stopped, demand has declined, and the industry’s wait-and-see mood has increased. Downstream refrigerants: Recently, the market of refrigerant R410a in China has been weak and stable, and the quotation of the manufacturer’s bulk water is concentrated between 25000-25500 yuan/ton. In the short term, the good news of refrigerant R410a is lacking, and the market price is expected to be weak and stable.

Forecast for future market

Dichloromethane analysts at business associations believe that the current supply of dichloromethane market is tight, and prices are expected to continue to rise next week.

According to Washington Energy Information, the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) said Tuesday that by the end of this year, OPEC member countries’crude oil production is expected to fall below 3.73 million barrels a day, the lowest monthly output of the organization since February 2015.

In its January short-term energy outlook report, EIA said that the average daily crude oil production of OPEC member countries in 2018 was 32.92 million barrels, which was 150,000 barrels lower than the average daily crude oil production in 2017. OPEC’s daily crude oil production is expected to fall to 30.88 million barrels this year and to 30.9 million barrels by 2020.

The EIA said OPEC’s output cuts this year would be offset by a 2.4 million barrel-a-day increase in non-OPEC countries, particularly the United States and Brazil.

OPEC’s crude oil production in December averaged 33.38 million barrels a day, down 840,000 barrels from November. The latest S&P Global Prussian Energy Information Survey released last week showed that OPEC member countries produced 32.43 million barrels of crude oil a day in December, about 630,000 barrels less than in November.

On January 16, WTI crude oil futures rose to $52.31 per barrel in February, an increase of $0.20. Brent crude oil futures rose to $61.32 per barrel in March, an increase of $0.68.