Price Trend

The propane market fell slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price of propane was 4142.5 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was 4107.5 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 0.84%, 17.23% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week, the domestic propane market fell slightly, and the trading atmosphere was general. As of January 25, propane of Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Company and Shandong Zhonghai Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. were not quoted for the time being. The ex-factory price of propane in Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group is 4200 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group is 4100 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Huifeng Petrochemical Company is 4130 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Company is 4150 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong Binzhou Dayou Group is 4150 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price of propane in Sinopec Qingdao Refinery and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3900 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: This week, the domestic liquefied gas market dropped broadly. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic liquefied gas market was 4100 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 3890 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 5.12%, 17.7% compared with the same period last year. This week domestic propylene (Shandong) fell successively, and the average price of enterprises at the beginning of the week was also high at 8070 yuan per ton; the average price of enterprises at the weekend was low at 7810 yuan per ton; the price declined continuously after stabilizing in the week, with a drop of 3.22%. Saudi CP in January: $430 per ton of propane, down 15% from last month. Butane is $420/ton, up 5% from last month. This week, the liquefied petroleum gas market has fallen in succession, affecting the market mentality. The downstream bearish atmosphere is strong, just in need of replenishment, the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high, and the overall atmosphere is general. The shipment of manufacturer is blocked, coupled with the approaching Spring Festival, inventory pressure, profit delivery.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are 14 kinds of commodities on the rise-fall list of commodity prices in the chemical sector in the 03rd week of 2019 (1.21-1.25). Among them, there are 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The first three commodities with an increase are ethylene (9.38%), sulfuric acid (7.83%) and epichlorohydrin (4.59%). There are 25 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 1.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are dichloromethane (-6.04%), 1,4-butanediol (-4.83%) and sulfur (-4.19%). Average gains and losses this week were -0.2%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propane analysts of business associations believe that the liquefied gas market is still weak, the market is lack of positive, February CP expected to decline, coupled with the approaching Spring Festival, manufacturers storage and drainage demand. The market is expected to decline steadily in the future.