On March 13, the fluorite commodity index was 102.46, unchanged from yesterday, down 19.63% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 108.21% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the recent domestic fluorite price fluctuation, as of 14 days, the average domestic fluorite price is 2920 yuan/ton. Due to the warmer weather, the recent domestic fluorite plant start-up, in-site mines and flotation devices continue to open, the supply of fluorite in-site increased relatively, but the recent downstream market has improved, fluorite market price fluctuations. Recently, the temperature has risen and the start-up rate of fluorite flotation units in the North has risen, but the downstream units have started to operate normally, the fluorite spot supply in the field is sufficient, and the downstream terminal receipts have increased compared with the previous ones, resulting in a temporary stabilization of market prices. As of the 14th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2400-3000 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2700-3100 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-3100 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2600-3100 yuan/ton, and the price trend of fluorite was stable.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in downstream fluorite is stable. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10775 yuan/ton as of 14 days. The price fluctuation of hydrofluoric acid market has little effect on the price of upstream fluorite. Recent downstream refrigerant product units started to rise, upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand has increased, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product prices temporarily stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 70%, R22 refrigerant facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main production enterprise’s bulk water ex-factory offer price rises to 18500-19000 yuan/ton, but there is no bulk water spot in the production enterprise, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. The actual demand side of the market has risen, and the delivery market has risen. The domestic market price of R134a is low, the start-up rate of production enterprises is low, the refrigerant market demand is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand, and recently due to the improvement of goods. Generally speaking, the downstream industry has a positive impact, together with the increase of inquiries in the fluorite market, the price of fluorite has a rising trend. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may rise slightly.

Butadiene closed stable in Europe on March 12, with FOB Rotterdam closing at $1053-1057 per ton and FD Northwest Europe closing at Euro 928-932 per ton.

The closing price of phenol in Asia was stable on March 12, with CIF prices ranging from US$1138 to US$1141 per ton.

Price Trend

Business Club: This week’s disadvantaged finishing trend of maleic anhydride market (3.4-3.8)

According to the data of business associations, the average price of maleic anhydride offer by the end of the weekend was 7600.00 yuan/ton (all including tax), and the trend of weak consolidation of the offer.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the domestic maleic anhydride market as a whole is in a weak state of consolidation.

Industry chain: Firstly, this week, domestic unsaturated resin factories resumed slowly, the downstream demand was insufficient, resin factories mainly digested inventory, domestic maleic anhydride market was weak and negotiations were weak; secondly, mainstream factories quoted loosely and weak finishing was dominant. Peripheral crude oil fluctuations affect the intra-field mentality, crude oil has support market or interval shocks, raw material pure benzene weakening drag mentality, n-butane price is stable, in the short term, the profit margin of benzene and butane maleic anhydride is stable. At the same time, Dongying Code and Qifa stop, and the starting rate is expected to be flat next week. Finally, downstream warehouse replenishment is cautious, logistics recovery is slow, and factories mainly wait and see.

3. Future Market Forecast

At present, the domestic maleic anhydride market may remain stalemate and consolidation in the near future, and the overall price may be the same as this week, according to the analyst of maleic anhydride products of Business Society Chemical Branch.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the price of domestic dry-process aluminium fluoride market remained stable as a whole this week, with an average market price of 11666 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 11666 yuan/ton at the weekend.

II. Market Analysis

Aluminum fluoride prices have remained stable this week: at present, the price of Aluminum fluoride in Henan is between 1120 and 11500 yuan/ton, while that in Shandong is between 1120 and 11600 yuan/ton. Zhengzhou Tianrui Grain Technology Co., Ltd. quoted 12,500 yuan per ton of aluminium fluoride, Shandong Luzeng Chemical Aluminum fluoride to 12,500 yuan per ton, Henan Zhongse Dongfang Shaoxing Industrial Aluminum fluoride to 12,000 yuan per ton.

Industry chain: This week, the price of hydrofluoric acid slightly declined. Enterprises reflect that the supply of hydrofluoric acid spot supply is sufficient, the recent market is poor, some enterprises have increased hydrofluoric acid inventory, the factory price continues to decline, the recent start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid plant is higher, the price of supply increase is slightly lower. Currently, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is 10,000-11,000 yuan/ton, and the hydrogen in the northern market. The price of fluoric acid ranges from 10500 to 11000 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid has been slightly lower, but recently the downstream refrigerant industry has been gradually restarted, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has fallen by a very limited margin. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of domestic negotiations on hydrofluoric acid in Fujian was around 10,500 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Shandong was 11,000 yuan/ton, that of hydrofluoric acid in Jiangxi was 11,000 yuan/ton, that of hydrofluoric acid in Inner Mongolia was between 10,000 yuan/ton, and that of hydrofluoric acid was slightly lower.

3. Future Market Forecast

Aluminum fluoride industry analysts from the Business Society Chemical Branch believe that the price of hydrofluoric acid, the upstream raw material, will remain volatile. Aluminum fluoride prices are expected to be stable next week.

On March 5, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 108.77, which was the same as yesterday. It was 8.15% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 40.58% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date)

Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market has been temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control and natural gas limitation of upstream raw materials, domestic ammonium nitrate plants have been shut down more and domestic ammonium nitrate plants have started less. However, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles and the price trend is temporarily stable. By the end of the weekend, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiation was in the range of 1900-2100 yuan/ton, which was affected by environmental protection and gas limitation, so now manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance to accept environmental protection inspection, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate in the field is shaking.

Recently, the price of domestic nitric acid has been temporarily stable, the price of 6I market is 1550 yuan/ton, the price of nitric acid has little influence on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable; the price of upstream raw material liquid ammonia has risen slightly, and the price of liquid ammonia market is 2916.67 yuan/ton on the 6th day. The rising price of upstream raw material has a positive impact on the market of ammonium nitrate. Market price trend is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened, and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the nitric acid market has risen again, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the price of upstream raw materials market has risen slightly in the near future, and they expect that the price of ammonium nitrate Market will remain volatile in the later period.

Price Trend

The domestic butadiene market has continued to decline recently. As of March 4, the price of butadiene was 9201 yuan/ton, according to the business association monitoring.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Domestic butadiene market continued to downward consolidation, Fushun Petrochemical export price slightly reduced, poor turnover, short-term short-term expectations led to cautious downstream inquiries, middleman offers follow the supply price slightly downward, and the market is full of sporadic low-price news. The delivery price in Shandong is 9000 yuan/ton. East China refers to 9300 yuan/ton. We will discuss it on a single basis. Asian closing price of butadiene, FOB Korea average offer $1120-1128 per ton; CFR China average offer $1155-1163 per ton.

Industry chain: styrene-butadiene rubber: domestic styrene-butadiene rubber market to maintain a weak and stable market. Businessmen offer stable, sporadic buyers on the market inquiries, the overall trading atmosphere is weak, most of the sources negotiate prices at the factory price, trading volume is small. Cis-butadiene rubber: The domestic cis-butadiene rubber market is stable. On-site wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, business offer is stable, sporadic buyers buy inquiries into the market, business shipments are not much, the overall turnover is not good. SBS: Domestic SBS market oil glue, dry glue narrow finishing, on-site business is flat.

3. Future Market Forecast

Northeast manufacturers export normally, the pressure on the supply side of the market still exists, coupled with the continued decline of the market aggravates the downstream cautious mentality, market turnover is difficult to release. Business community butadiene analysts predict that the domestic butadiene market is mainly weak in recent years, and suggest that attention should be paid to manufacturers’export prices and transaction guidelines.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the cobalt price in February continued the previous downward trend. As of February 28, the quotation price of Cobalt City was 295833.34 yuan/ton, which was 29166.66 yuan/ton lower than that of February 1, 325000.00 yuan/ton. In February, the cobalt market had not improved, and the cobalt price still fell sharply. In February, the cobalt price fell by 8.97%. In view of the closure of the cobalt Market during the Spring Festival, the cobalt price fell rapidly in February, approaching June of 18 years, and the cobalt market continued to be depressed.

II. Market Analysis

Trend analysis

As can be seen from the above chart, the domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles rose sharply in January 2019. In January, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 91,000 and 96,000 respectively, an increase of 113% and 138% over the same period last year. The production and sales of new energy automobiles have maintained high growth, which has a positive impact on the rise of cobalt market. However, as the rise of new energy automobiles is difficult to offset the impact of the decline in mobile phone sales, the overall market of cobalt is negative in terms of demand.

International Cobalt Price

On February 27, MB low-grade cobalt quoted $15.35-16.4 per pound, down $3.025 per pound from $17.85-19.95 per pound in early February (February 6), while high-grade cobalt quoted $15.3-16.7 per pound, down $2.9 per pound from $17.8-20 per pound in early February (February 6). International cobalt prices fell sharply, but the decline eased compared with January. Cobalt market is still weak, but tends to be stable. Overall, international cobalt market is negative for domestic cobalt market.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst for business associations, the price of cobalt fell sharply in February, but there is limited room for its decline. Although cobalt prices have continued to fall in the near future, there is a growing bullish voice. It is unlikely that cobalt prices will stop falling immediately and rise again, but the possibility of cobalt price fluctuation adjustment in the near future will rise. Now the cobalt price has fallen below the 300,000 yuan/ton mark, gradually approaching the historical low price range of cobalt price. On the supply side, cobalt mining continues to increase, cobalt ore supply increases, demand side, mobile phone sales decline, cobalt market demand is weak, although the growth of new energy vehicles brings about an increase in cobalt demand, but the overall cobalt demand is still declining. At present, both supply and demand are bad for Cobalt City, but there are still a lot of bullish voices in the market, which can be attributed to the following reasons: 1. The changing international political environment, the general election of Congo Kingdom Kong, and the unstable political environment have brought changes to the supply of Cobalt City; 2. Increasing mineral tax and cost of mining enterprises in Congo, Kinshasa, will inevitably lead to the rise of metal prices; 3. The game belt between African government and mining enterprises. In view of the government’s increasing tax revenue, mining enterprises may take measures to stop production or limit production to confront the uncertainty of cobalt supply in the future; 4. African workers’strike, workers’ strike continued to escalate, although it did not affect cobalt supply for the time being, but with the development of the situation, the supply and cost of cobalt mine will inevitably increase; 5, 5G mobile phone technology upgrading, mobile phone updating, mobile phone consumption or A sharp rise in demand for cobalt has brought good results. In summary, the cobalt market is still in the stage of oversupply at the present stage. The cobalt market is in a bad position. However, the future cobalt market changes still need real-time attention to the political dynamics and the renewal of mobile phone technology. In 2019, the cobalt market is bound to rebound, but now it seems that there is little room for the cobalt market to fall, and at the same time the strength of the rise is insufficient. Cobalt price is difficult to fall below the psychological level of 250,000 yuan/ton, but at the same time, the cobalt market is not fully motivated to rise, 350,000 yuan/ton is the current cobalt price difficult to reach the high level.

According to Dow Jones on February 14, senior journalist Amena Bakr of Energy Intelligence, a news and research service provider, tweeted that Saudi Arabia and the United States suspended oil production in Saffania, the world’s largest offshore oil field, this week, citing people familiar with the matter on Thursday. Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group, said the potential impact on oil prices depends on how long the oil field shuts down. The oilfield produces heavy crude oil, while the current global market is short of heavy crude oil supply. Alex Schindelar, executive editor of Energy Intelligence’s content and strategy, said on Twitter Thursday that the oil market had unexpectedly reduced the supply of another 1 million barrels per day of heavy crude oil, and that the heavy crude oil market was already tight because of OPEC’s production cuts and US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela.

Price Trend

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. As of February 13, the price of butadiene was 9,971 yuan per ton, according to business association monitoring.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: The domestic butadiene market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The price of butadiene from northeastern manufacturers has been lowered, and the delivery of butadiene from manufacturers is not smooth, which drags the market down. The bearish mood of the industry is obvious, and the downstream demand recovery is slow. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the butadiene market in Shandong Province. The price of butadiene in Northeast China has been lowered, and the delivery of butadiene by manufacturers is not smooth, which drags down the market. The hollow state of butadiene industry is obvious. East China butadiene market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the industry is cautious. Asian closing price of butadiene, FOB Korea average offer $1110-1118 per ton; CFR China average offer $1095-1103 per ton.

Industry Chain: Styrene Butadiene Rubber: Shanghai Rubber is strong, and some enterprises have raised the price of some brands of Styrene Butadiene Rubber, but due to the poor butadiene, and because the industry is still in the process of returning to the market, the market of Styrene Butadiene Rubber is showing a shocky pattern, with little fluctuation in the offer and a small number of transactions. Cis-butadiene rubber: The domestic cis-butadiene rubber market is stable. With the increase of returning merchants, the offer increases and the price is stable. There are not many inquiries downstream, and the market is in a state of no market at all. SBS: There is no mainstream offer for oil glue and dry glue in domestic SBS market. Oil glue: PetroChina Eastern China and PetroChina North China oil glue slightly increased by 100 yuan/ton, but the merchants returned limited, wait-and-see mentality, downstream shoe enterprises during the holidays. In the aspect of dry rubber road reform, PetroChina has slightly increased its supply and price, and the merchants’mentality is flat. They are moderately single-minded and pay attention to the follow-up development of Sinopec dry rubber.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, demand is expected to recover gradually; on the negative side, external prices are weak and supply is abundant. Business Association butadiene analysts expect that the short-term domestic butadiene market continues to weaken downward trend, focusing on market turnover.