According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, TDI prices in East China remained stable and upward this week (5.20-5.24). As of May 24th, the average market price in East China was 15000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the price of 14900 yuan/ton on May 20th, an increase of 0.67%.

This week, the TDI market has remained stable with minor fluctuations. Downstream demand continues to be sluggish, with average enthusiasm for entering the market, limited market trading, and a conflicted mentality in the trade market. Holders tend to offer mostly stable prices, and the supportive attitude of suppliers during the week has been released. The focus of market trading has slightly increased, but the trading atmosphere on the exchange is not good, with insufficient positive support, TDI prices have once again stabilized.

The upstream toluene market is operating steadily, with the domestic average price of toluene around 7500 yuan/ton as of May 24th, which is unchanged from the price of 7500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. International crude oil is experiencing weak fluctuations, with weak support from the cost of toluene; The production of xylene has slightly decreased, and the demand for toluene is relatively weak; The decrease in inventory at the port has eased the pressure on the toluene market to a certain extent, and under multiple factors, the domestic methanol market price remains stable.

In the future market analysis, TDI data analysts from Business Society believe that the factory equipment is currently operating smoothly, with high market capacity utilization, weak supplier support, weak downstream demand, limited entry into the market for procurement, and insufficient market confidence. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that TDI will be weak and prices will fluctuate narrowly in the future. Specific attention will be paid to the follow-up situation of downstream procurement.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week was 11766 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon over the weekend was 11833 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.57%.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers are generally stable, with some prices rising. The downstream inquiry atmosphere is positive, and the factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan/ton. Market transactions are improving, with a focus on market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in areas such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially gold charcoal, which receives more inquiries from the African market; The supply of fruit shell charcoal with medium to low indicators is smoother. There is a recent rebound in imported carbonized materials, and the industry can pay more attention to it.

Prediction: The inquiries in the activated carbon market are positive, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.

According to the business commodity market analysis system, as of May 22, 2024, the reference factory price of domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 4116 yuan/ton. Compared with May 17 (reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 4166 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.20%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that this week (5.17-5.22), the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market experienced a slight decline and then consolidated and operated. At the beginning of the week, the overall price difference between high and low prices in the domestic dimethyl carbonate market was reduced. In the early stage, some factories with higher prices narrowly lowered the outbound price of dimethyl carbonate this week, with a reduction of 50-100 yuan/ton, driving the overall market trend to slightly approach downward. Subsequently, during the mid week period, the overall stability and consolidation of the dimethyl carbonate market were observed. As of May 22nd, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is based on around 3950-4200 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream epoxy propane: On May 21st, the Shandong epoxy propane market remained stable, with mainstream prices at around 9400 yuan/ton. Cost support was average, and factory shipments weakened. Downstream procurement was cautious.

Further analysis in the future

At present, the supply side of dimethyl carbonate is relatively stable, and the overall demand in the downstream market is also relatively stable. The transmission of supply and demand is still good. According to the data analyst of Business Society, in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will mainly operate with large stability and small fluctuations, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand news.

Last week (May 13-19), the market price of raw material caprolactam increased slightly, and the price of nylon filament followed suit. Downstream demand was stable, and the operating rate of the nylon filament industry was at a high level. There was little change in on-site supply, and the inventory levels of various manufacturers were average, with little inventory pressure. Downstream manufacturers are multi-dimensional and purchase according to demand, with overall stable demand. Overall, the cost side tends to rise strongly, with little change in on-site supply and stable terminal demand.

Market price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, last week (May 13-19), the price center of nylon filament rose. As of May 19, 2024, the price of DTY nylon filament (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 19040 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.42%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 16700 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.45%; The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is quoted at 20050 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

Strong operation of raw materials

Last week (May 13-19), the market price of caprolactam, a raw material for nylon filament, was relatively strong and increased. The price of raw material pure benzene remains stable with minor fluctuations, and cost support is still acceptable. The downstream operating rate has increased, leading to a positive demand for raw materials and an increase in terminal demand. Some companies are planning maintenance for their caprolactam units, leading to a tightening of market supply. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of caprolactam in China was 13122 yuan/ton on May 19th. On May 13th, the average market price of caprolactam in China was 12950 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.25%. The improvement in terminal demand, coupled with a decrease in market supply, has driven up the price of caprolactam. It is expected that the short-term market trend of caprolactam will continue to be strong.

Supply and demand

Last week (May 13-19), nylon manufacturers maintained a stable operating load, with sufficient supply of goods and little inventory pressure. Entering May, downstream demand is gradually increasing, and downstream manufacturers are multidimensional and purchasing according to demand, maintaining stable demand in the nylon spinning field.

Future Market Forecast

The spot market for raw material caprolactam is relatively strong, with reasonable support on the cost side. On site supply remains normal, and downstream procurement is mainly based on demand. Analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term nylon filament market will mainly follow the stable and moderate preference of raw materials, and the price will move up in a narrow range with large stability and small fluctuations.

Recently, some domestic acrylic ester products have been significantly affected by domestic equipment maintenance and overseas exports, resulting in a tight market supply and an overall improvement in quantity and price. The overall market atmosphere is warm, with factories mainly delivering contracts and holders under less pressure to ship. The quotation is steadily running. Among them, the price of isooctyl acrylate has increased significantly, mainly due to the increase in upstream raw material prices, which has a certain impact on market prices

As of May 20th, the benchmark price of butyl acrylate in Shengyishe was 9400.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.42% compared to the beginning of this month (9440.00 yuan/ton)

As of May 20th, the benchmark price of ethyl acrylate in Shengyishe was 9375.00 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged from the beginning of this month

As of May 20th, the benchmark price of isooctyl acrylate in Shengyishe was 12800.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.39% compared to the beginning of this month (12625.00 yuan/ton)

From the perspective of other products in the industry chain, the fluctuation range of acrylic acid prices is limited, mainly because, on the one hand, the price of raw material propylene has rebounded, with an average propylene market price of 6788.60 yuan/ton, an increase of -0.18% compared to the beginning of this month (6800.60 yuan/ton); The average market price of ethanol is 6050.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.62% compared to the beginning of this month (6012.50 yuan/ton); The average market price of n-butanol is 8133.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.83% compared to the beginning of this month (7833.33 yuan/ton); The average monthly price of isooctanol in the market is 9760.00 yuan/ton, which is an increase of 1.04% compared to the beginning of this month (9660.00 yuan/ton). The majority of alcohol market prices have risen this month, which is beneficial for supporting the acrylic ester market.

The downstream water reducing agent market for acrylic acid is maintaining stable operation, with some monomer production enterprises offering narrow fluctuations in prices. Downstream demand side is not highly sensitive to price, and cautious observation is mainly focused on receiving first-time demand. Early inventory digestion is slow, and it is expected that the monomer market will continue to maintain stable operation in the short term.

The downstream SAP industry of acrylic acid has experienced a phenomenon of oversupply but insufficient demand. This is because although SAP in China has a large production and exports, the product supply is mainly low-end products, and most high-end products need to be imported from countries such as Japan, which has dragged down the market. The SAP industry supply has a structural imbalance in supply characteristics. Currently, the price of acrylic acid in the northern market is relatively stable, and some major manufacturers in the East and South China markets have slightly increased their prices, but market transactions are still slow to follow up.

Overall, the current acrylic ester market is mainly affected by raw materials and downstream demand. Analysts from Business Society predict that the acrylic acid and ester market will continue to be dominated by supply and demand in the short term, and the price fluctuation space may be limited.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 17th, the average market price of compound fertilizer was 3060 yuan/ton, and on May 11th, the average market price of compound fertilizer was 3050 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.33% compared to last week.

In terms of cost

This week, the domestic potassium chloride market continued its previous consolidation trend, with a calm market performance. The demand for ammonium chloride in the market is good, and factories have sufficient pending orders. The domestic market price of potassium sulfate continues to rise, with a significant increase. Resource based potassium sulfate manufacturers are still producing, and some manufacturers will enter traditional summer maintenance on the 31st of this month. The subsequent supply of goods will be significantly reduced.

In terms of supply and demand

With the sustained support of the favorable raw material market, especially with the significant increase in urea prices, the release of high nitrogen fertilizer prices in summer is concentrated. The purchase and sales of compound fertilizers in summer are approaching a sprint, and the increase in compound fertilizer prices seems to have not caused too much turbulence. Compound fertilizer factories generally indicate that there is still surplus to be shipped, and new replenishment orders are gradually following up, with average demand.

Future Market Forecast

Before the existing inventory is digested, the demand for replenishment may also be delayed and released. Compound fertilizer companies have a trend of rising prices, but whether they can truly land on the market still depends on the actual situation of downstream replenishment in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 16th, the average price quoted by epoxy chloropropane enterprises was 8075.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.52% compared to last Thursday’s price.

Recently, the market price of epichlorohydrin has fallen. At this stage, the price of raw material propylene first rises and then falls, while the price of raw material liquid chlorine mainly falls. The raw material glycerol runs weakly and steadily, and the cost face has limited impact on the market of epichlorohydrin. The support for terminal demand is weak, and downstream follow-up on epichlorohydrin is not good. The main focus is on digesting inventory, and small orders are selected for low demand buying. The market transaction atmosphere is not high, and due to the impact of some device restart plans, the mentality of operators is under pressure. Enterprises are actively shipping, and the focus of negotiations in the epichlorohydrin market is downward.

Raw material propylene:

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, on May 15th, the reference price of propylene was 6818.60, an increase of 0.26% compared to May 1st (6800.60). Recently, the price of raw material propylene has risen first and then fallen, providing continued support for the epichlorohydrin market.

Main downstream epoxy resin: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price of epoxy resin on May 15th was 12833.33, a decrease of 0.26% compared to May 1st (12866.67), which lacks support for the epoxy chloropropane market.

Future Market Forecast:

According to analysts from Business Society, the current transaction atmosphere in the epichlorohydrin market is weak, and the short-term cost impact may be limited. Under the expectation of supply increment, there is no significant improvement in the demand side, and the mentality of operators is cautious and weak. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will continue to operate weakly in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of May 15, 2024, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1048 yuan/ton. Compared with the reference price of 1042 yuan/ton on May 5 and 1, the price increased by 6 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.58%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that in early May, the overall domestic phosphate ore market showed a slight increase and then remained stable and consolidated. In the first week after the holiday, the demand for phosphate ore in the terminal market has improved, and the enthusiasm for purchasing upstream raw materials has increased. The overall pace of phosphate ore shipments has been boosted, and the overall supply and demand in the market have improved. Some mining areas have a tight supply of phosphate ore, and the price of mid to high end phosphate ore has been raised by about 20 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the overall phosphorus ore market remained high and consolidated. As of May 15th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1030-1100 yuan/ton. The specific price may vary depending on factors such as the original ore specifications and powder to block ratio, and the specific price needs to be negotiated based on actual orders.

Attached are the market prices of phosphate ore in some domestic regions (for reference only):

Product/ Region/ Taste/ Price/ Remarks/ Date

Phosphate ore/ Guizhou region/ 30 grade/ 1030-1100 yuan/ton/ Stable operation/ May 15th

Phosphate ore/ Guangxi region/ 30 grade/ 1050-1090 yuan/ton/ Organize and run/ May 15th

Phosphate ore/ Sichuan region/ 30 grade/ 1050-1080 yuan/ton/ Stable operation/ May 15th

Phosphate ore/ Yunnan region/ 30 grade/ 1050-1080 yuan/ton/ Stable operation/ May 15th

Phosphate ore/ Hubei region/ 30 grade/ 1070-1100 yuan/ton/ Stable operation/ May 15th

Downstream ammonium phosphate: In early May, the domestic ammonium phosphate market showed an overall upward trend. On May 14th, the reference average price of monoammonium phosphate in the domestic market was 2893 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.4% compared to May 1st (2853.33 yuan/ton). At present, the supply of monoammonium phosphate is tight, market demand is increasing, the trading atmosphere is good, and the market is operating at a high price.

Future analysis

At present, the inquiry atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is mild, and some areas have a clear pace of phosphate ore shipments. The mentality of the industry is good. The phosphate ore data analyst of the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mainly operate with stable and minor adjustments, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 13, 2024, the reference price of domestic n-propanol market was 7866 yuan/ton, which was basically unchanged compared to May 1. Compared with April 1 (reference price of n-propanol was 7916 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.63%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that in the recent period (5.9-5.13), the domestic n-propanol market has remained stable and consolidated, with limited fluctuations in the n-propanol market. The fundamentals of n-propanol have remained calm, with stable production on the supply side, normal shipments from large factories in Shandong, and stable prices. The normal operation of the n-propanol plant in Nanjing is normal, and n-propanol is mainly used for self use, and external quotations remain stable. At present, the overall supply and demand transmission in the n-propanol market is normal, and downstream purchases are made on demand. As of May 13th, the domestic market price of n-propanol in Shandong region is around 7200-7600 yuan/ton, with a relatively high price of around 7700-7800 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of n-propanol in Nanjing region is around 8500-8800 yuan/ton, and specific orders need to be negotiated based on actual transactions.

Prediction of future market trends of n-propanol

At present, the trading atmosphere in the domestic n-propanol market is mild, and downstream inquiries are made on demand. The mentality of the operators is stable. According to the n-propanol data analyst of Business Society, in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mainly operate with large stability and small fluctuations, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, on May 11, 2024, the reference market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was 7500 yuan/ton. Compared with May 5 (reference price of propylene glycol was 7650 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.37%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that in the first week after May Day Labor Day, the overall domestic propylene glycol market continued to be weak and decline. Looking back at the pre holiday period, the overall pre holiday stocking performance of the propylene glycol market was poor. However, with the return after the holiday, the propylene glycol market did not receive effective market support. The trading atmosphere on the propylene glycol market remained weak, with poor new order inquiries. The downstream demand side continued to be weak, and the focus of the propylene glycol market continued to explore downwards. As of May 11th, the domestic propylene glycol market price is around 7300-7600 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream epoxy propane: After the holiday, the overall epoxy propane market in Shandong region remained stable at a high level, with a reference price of 9225 yuan/ton on May 11th. The high and stable operation of epoxy propane has not reduced the cost pressure on the propylene glycol market, and the overall pressure on the propylene glycol market has declined during the week.

Future analysis

At present, downstream demand for propylene glycol is still sluggish, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment on the market. However, with high cost prices and almost bottoming out prices, the risk of a significant downturn in the propylene glycol market in the future is relatively small. A propylene glycol data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will mainly undergo narrow adjustments, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in fundamental news.