I. Overall Trend

This week (6.17-6.21) polyethylene showed a narrow downward trend. The average price of LDPE 2426H in East China monitored by business associations was about 8287.5 yuan/ton; the average price of HDPE 5000S was about 8800 yuan/ton; and the average price of LLDPE 7042 was about 7800 yuan/ton. As of June 21, the price of LLDPE in East China showed a trend of falling first and then rising this week. LDPE prices showed a trend of falling first and then stabilizing this week. HDPE prices showed a steady trend this week.

On June 23, the LLDPE commodity index was 74.70, unchanged from yesterday, down 36.46% from the peak of 117.56 points in the cycle (2013-12-11), and up 0.86% from the low of 74.06 points on June 20, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

On June 23, the LDPE commodity index was 64.49, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a new low in the cycle, down 43.10% from its peak of 113.33 on December 08, 2013. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

On June 23, the HDPE commodity index was 71.33, the same as yesterday, hitting a new low in the cycle, down 30.29% from the highest point of 102.33 on July 24, 2014. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Upstream: This week’s international oil price surge. Geographical tensions, supply contraction expectations are the main positive factors, but IEA downward demand expectations restrain the increase. On Monday (June 17), WTI crude oil July futures settled at $51.93 a barrel, down $0.58 from the previous trading day, trading range $51.59-52.73; Brent crude oil August futures settled at $60.94 a barrel, down $1.07 from the previous trading day, trading range $60.74-62.37. On Friday (June 21), WTI crude oil August futures settled at $57.43 a barrel, up $0.36 from the previous trading day, trading range $56.66-57.98; Brent crude oil August futures settled at $65.20 a barrel, up $0.75 from the previous trading day, trading range $64.00-65.76.

Manufacturer dynamics: This week, the overall start-up rate of agricultural film enterprises is about 12%, which is the same as last week. The start-up time of agricultural film enterprises is mainly in August, and the earliest device restart time is in August. Although there is a part of the bargain reserve behavior, but the long-term expectations are weak, the terminal still maintains the idea of bargain purchase.

Futures Trend: On June 21, polyethylene futures L1909 main contract opening price 7775, maximum price 7800, minimum price 7680, closing price 7740, pre-settlement price 7700, settlement price 7740, up 40, 0.52%, turnover 507906, position 652322, daily increase warehouse-17496. (Quote unit: yuan/ton)

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 20th week of 2019 (5.20-5.24), there were 6 kinds of commodities in the price rising and falling list of rubber and plastic plates. The top three commodities were EPS (1.02%), PP (0.99%) and HDPE (0.75%). There are 6 kinds of goods falling in the ring ratio, one of which is more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products of the first three declines are PET (-5.77%), PA6 (-2.78%) and natural rubber (-2.45%). Average gains and losses this week were -0.66%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Looking forward to the future market, business analysts believe that the current two barrels of oil inventory has fallen to a low level, and the factory may need to purchase just next week after a low price replenishment in the early stage, but the overall market is in the off-season and the market demand is not large. Horizontal consolidation is expected to dominate in the near future.

I. Market Review

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite market price trend rose this week, with the weekend price of 3075 yuan/ton, 0.41% higher than the beginning of the week price of 3062.5 yuan/ton, 18.73% higher than the previous year, and the recent fluorite price trend rose slightly.

II. Market Analysis

Domestic fluorite prices rose slightly this week, and the operating rate of fluorite plants did not change much, but downstream demand improved. The spot supply of fluorite was tight. The price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2900-3100 yuan/ton by the end of the weekend. The mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiations in Fujian was 3000-3300 yuan/ton, 97 fluorite wet powder prices in Henan were 3000-3200 yuan/ton, and 9 fluorite wet powder prices in Jiangxi area. 7. The price of fluorite wet powder ranges from 3000 to 3300 yuan/ton, and the price trend of fluorite has risen slightly. Fluorite field started to maintain a normal level, recent downstream demand has improved, but the site reflects a tight spot, affected by many factors, fluorite prices rose slightly.

Industry chain: This week, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream fluorite market rose slightly. By the end of the week, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 1,1960 yuan/ton. This week, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream market rose by 0.67%. The price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream market was a good influence of the fluorite market, and the price trend of fluorite rose. Recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, downstream refrigerant product unit operating rate is not ideal, upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, refrigerant market trading market is cold, R22 refrigerant unit surface operating situation is not high, R22 market unit operating rate is low, the main production enterprise bulk water factory offer price is between 18000-18500 yuan/ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water spot. Most cylinders are shipped in small quantities. In addition, the actual demand side of the market is low, and the shipping market trend is poor. The domestic market price of R134a has slightly declined, the start-up rate of production enterprises has not changed much, the market demand for refrigerants has weakened, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the general downstream start-up, the market demand for hydrofluoric acid in the upstream has improved, and the price of fluorite market has risen.

Industry: This week, the upstream fluorite industry started to work normally, the price of hydrofluoric acid rose slightly, the spot supply of fluorite products was tight, and the price trend of fluorite market was rising.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the future, the domestic fluorite plant started to work normally in the near future, the market price of the downstream hydrofluoric acid industry rose slightly, and the market of the downstream refrigeration industry improved slightly. Chen Ling, a fluorite analyst with business associations, believed that the manufacturers in the fluorite field reflected the shortage of supply, and expected that prices would rise slightly in the later period, or the price would be around 3100 yuan/ton.

On June 17, the fluorite commodity index was 107.46, up 1.98 points from yesterday, down 15.71% from 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 118.37% from 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite price trend has risen, up to 18 days, the average domestic fluorite price is 3075 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic fluorite plant started normally, the mine and flotation plant in the field started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is slightly tense, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream has recently risen. For the fluorite market, the price of fluorite market has risen on demand. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is normal, terminal downstream pick-up situation improved, resulting in rising market price trend. As of the 18th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2900-3100 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiations in Fujian was 3000-3200 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2900-3200 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 3000-3200 yuan/ton.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in downstream fluorite is rising. As of the 18th day, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 11890 yuan/ton. The fluctuation of the market price of hydrofluoric acid has a positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general. The demand for fluorite has weakened and the price of fluorite has fluctuated. Recent downstream refrigerant product installations started at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price trend is stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water out of the factory offer price is between 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery quotation is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. But the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is in a general market. In addition, the fluorite market supply is normal and the price of fluorite is rising. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may rise slightly.

I. Price Trend Chart of Sodium Pyrosulfite in China

According to the monitoring of business associations, the domestic price of sodium pyrosulfite continued to decline slightly this week. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 1966.67 yuan/ton, while the average price at the end of the week was 1933.33 yuan/ton, down 1.70%.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the market price of sodium pyrosulfite continues to be weak at the bottom. The market price range of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite is 1800-2100 yuan/ton. Most of the prices are concentrated in the vicinity of 1950 yuan/ton. Enterprises have stable production, relatively adequate inventory, mainly to complete the orders of old customers, new orders increase is limited, the overall fast-in and fast-out. (The above prices refer to the foreign quotations of the mainstream domestic enterprises, some of which are not reported for the time being. The prices are for reference only. They have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact the manufacturers for consultation.

Industry chain: Soda price continued to be weak in the upstream this week, and sulfur price rose slightly. Overall, processing costs are still relatively low and fluctuated slightly. It is difficult to support the rebound of domestic sodium pyrosulfite price.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that the peak demand season has not yet arrived, processing costs continue to be low, trade entities are cautious in purchasing and selling, and the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite is warming and pressured in the short term.

Price Trend

This week (6.10-6.14) the price of NBR declined weakly. At the beginning of the week, the average price of NBR was 18,800 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the average price of NBR was 18,500 yuan/ton, down 1.6%.

II. Market Trend Analysis

Product supply and demand: This week, the domestic nitrile butadiene plant is running normally. According to the business association, Lanzhou Petrochemical’s 65,000 tons/year plant has been started normally, 15,000 tons/year nitrile butadiene plant has been converted to military industry, and 50,000 tons/year nitrile butadiene plant has started to produce 3305E/3308E. At present, nitrile butadiene rubber 3305E is reported to 17700 yuan/ton, N41E is reported to 17200 yuan/ton, 3308E is reported to 182 yuan/ton, and the price is sold; Ningbo Shunze’s 65,000 tons/year assembly. For production, 28 and 33 series NBR have stable ex-factory prices, currently reported at around 18,500 yuan/ton; 41 series NBR implements a single talk policy. Demand downstream is weak, traders follow the market to deliver goods, the market has a certain drag.

Industry chain: raw material butadiene prices fell slightly this week, the cost of NBR price formation negative. Butadiene dropped 2.33% at 8,590 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 8,390 yuan/ton at the end of the week, according to the business association.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Xu Xiaokun, an analyst with business associations, believes that on the one hand, the decline in raw material butadiene prices has created a negative impact on the NBR market; on the other hand, the overall market demand is weak, and the price of NBR in the future is expected to show a weak state.

Price Trend

According to data from business associations, the market of DMF fell this week, with the average price of DMF at the beginning of the week being 4500.00 yuan/ton, and the average price of DMF at the end of the week being 4416.67 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.85%. Current prices fell by 37.20% compared with last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: DMF market fell this week, mainstream manufacturers in East China quoted between 4400 and 4600 yuan / ton, mainstream manufacturers in Guangdong at 4700 yuan / ton. The DMF plant of Tetramethylene Chemical Company stopped for maintenance on May 24. DMF stocks are abundant and prices are falling.

Industry chain: The upstream methanol market was affected by macro and port inventory. The price at the beginning of the week was 2334.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week was 2234.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.28%. The start-up rate of domestic pulp manufacturers fell, purchasing attitudes were low, and DMF prices fell.

3. Future Market Forecast

The upstream methanol market has been declining recently, but the downstream demand is general, so business associations DMF product analysts believe that the short-term DMF market is mainly weak consolidation.

Price Trend

Domestic aggregated MDI market continued to decline. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the average market price of aggregated MDI was 17 750 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 13 625 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price of aggregated MDI fell 23.24% in the month, which was 15.48% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic aggregate MDI market prices fell sharply all the way in May. Ring prices fell by about 5,000 yuan/ton from the end of April. At present, the market price is around 12,500 yuan/ton for Shanghai goods and 13,500 yuan/ton for Wanhua goods. Compared with the “boom” in January-April, the market fell into a lonely “lick wound” state in May. After the return of May holidays, the market began to explore the mode, the social inventory is large, the number of people selling goods is larger than the number of buyers, the demand consumption situation is very poor, the market turnover is very bad under the mentality of buying up and not buying down. Despite the subsequent introduction of a stop-drop policy by BASF manufacturers to adjust the guiding price, Wanhua manufacturers “silently”, and Koth founders “go their own way” continue to reduce the weekly guiding price, falling at an unstoppable rate. Towards the end of the month, with the publication of listing prices, manufacturers have little market intentions, business mentality generally returns to rationality, the hard bubble off-season in June is approaching gradually, maintenance devices are returning to production, new sources of market “surge” into the market, coupled with a large number of social stocks accumulated in the first half of the year, downstream demand consumption is much worse than in previous years, and aggregated MDI market prices are expected to face succession again. Continue to explore the possibilities and watch the latest developments of manufacturers and businesses.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: the price of pure benzene oscillated upward in the month. Earlier this month, the impact of Tehrer’s comments in the United States, commodity prices and oil prices fell, leading to a weakening of the focus of pure benzene, East China once fell below 4400 yuan per ton. In mid-month, Hengli’s shipment tended to be stable, which compensated for the reduction in maintenance of Northwest equipment. The price of East China remained stable near 4500 yuan/ton. Affected by industry meetings, market turnover is weak. In late January, the decline of port stocks gave the market an opportunity to speculate. Meanwhile, the large increase in external prices also supported the domestic pure benzene rise.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in May 2019, there were 21 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 9 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 12.2% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The top three commodities were epichlorohydrin (11.73%), nitric acid (9.51%) and butadiene (9.15%). There are 48 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 31.1% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines are hydrochloric acid (-60.56%), sulfuric acid (-42.25%) and TDI (-26.21%). This month’s average rise and fall was -3.9%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Perspective: The market is constantly emerging, the demand side is difficult to get better, and most of the future market prices are expected to decline negatively. Business Aggregate MDI analysts expect that short-term domestic aggregate MDI market prices are mainly weak consolidation, closely watching the market turnover and MDI related products market situation.

On June 3, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 104.81, up 0.18 points from yesterday, down 25.36% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and up 95.58% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market rose on the 4th. Up to now, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 11550 yuan/ton. The domestic start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. Enterprises reflect that the supply of hydrofluoric acid on the spot is tight at present. Recently, the market situation of hydrofluoric acid has improved. Due to the higher raw material fluorite, some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers have raised the ex-factory price, and the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid is on the rise. Rise. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 11,000-11,500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 11,500-12,000 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices increased, spot supply decreased slightly, but demand did not change very much, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market rose.

Recent downstream refrigerant products start at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price shocks. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions have improved, R22 refrigerant plant surface started at 60%, R22 market device start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main production enterprise bulk water factory offer price is between 18500-19500 yuan/ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipment. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery market has increased. The domestic market price trend of R134a is not good, the start-up rate of production enterprises remains low, the refrigerant market demand is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price has not changed much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the shortage of supply, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market has risen.

Refrigerant on-site transactions are general, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is normal, but the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is tight, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may continue to rise.

Price Trend

This week, the domestic ethanol market trend of regionalization, according to business association monitoring data, the domestic ethanol market price at the beginning of the weekend was 5260 yuan/ton, the price fell by 3.82% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the trend of regionalization of the alcohol market is obvious. The price of Northeast China began to rise on Tuesday, with a rise of 300-350 yuan/ton. Near the end of the month, some of the contract orders of enterprises were executed, and the mentality of pulling up was obvious. Enterprises dramatically increased their offer. Under the mentality of downstream purchasing, some tentative inquiries and small purchase orders. Prices in Shandong and East China rose on Thursday. Influenced by the rise in Northeast goods, Northeast China arbitrage was closed, and enterprises were slightly boosted by the favorable supply side. In South China, there are few start-ups, more molasses and alcohol are supplied to Liquor-making factories, liquor-making factories are basically in need of purchasing, the stock of start-up enterprises is high, the quotation of enterprises is stable, the Haiying device starts around this weekend, the shipments are normal during the parking period of enterprises, the parking of Guangwei this week is expected to be about 10 days, the supply of goods is normal, mainly for self-use.

Industry Chain: Maize: In May, the inventory continued to decline, and the corn trading enterprises still showed a strong reluctance to sell. We predict that the general trend of maize market in the near future is still bullish, the probability of short-term surge is still lacking of foundation, sustained slow rise is still the mainstream performance of the market, and the probability of callback in the near future is low. Maize prices are expected to remain strong for most of June. Ethyl acetate: This week, the domestic market for ethyl acetate rose and fell. Last week, domestic ethyl acetate concentrated exports eased the situation of domestic oversupply, and raw material acetic acid rose continuously last week, cost support, the market of ethyl acetate rose passively. By this week, the export boom has gradually eased, and the domestic downstream is about to enter the traditional off-season. The market demand for ethyl acetate is limited, which leads to the accumulation of domestic spot quantity and the overall market situation is weak.

3. Future Market Forecast

The alcohol market in Northeast China has been soaring sharply, waiting for the process of digestion and growth downstream. At present, there is no arbitrage situation for goods from Northeast China to East China. Enterprises in East China are not driving very much at present, and the supply side is good. It is expected that the short-term market will remain strong or upward. At present, the stock situation in Henan is high, the demand of liquor-making enterprises is light, the short-term market is expected to remain stable, and the sugar in South China is expected to remain stable. Honey enterprises have not started a lot, enterprises are currently in stock, the short-term market is expected to remain strong. Ethanol analysts at business associations expect the domestic ethanol market to run steadily in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the prices of domestic pure benzene enterprises have risen in general this week, with some enterprises rising slightly. This week, the highest price of pure benzene appeared on Thursday and Friday, 4300-4500 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.45%.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: This week, the pure benzene market showed a steady and moderate upward trend, with an increase of about 50-100 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream price of pure benzene in the market is about 4300-4500 yuan/ton. This week, pure benzene stocks fell again, and the reduction was wider than the previous period. The market was slightly encouraged. Prices began to rise on Thursday. However, due to the current low price of hydrobenzene, the impact on the pure benzene market can not be ignored and the increase is limited.

2. Crude oil: Oil prices showed a downward trend this week. Overall, oil prices fell slightly compared with Brent oil last week, but U.S. crude oil fell sharply.

3. Downstream: This week, the market of aniline downstream of pure benzene is stable, supply and demand are normal, which has little impact on the price of pure benzene; this week, the price of acetone has increased to support the price of pure benzene; maleic anhydride prices fell at the beginning of the week, which can not support the price of pure benzene.

4. External Disc: FOB Korea’s price continues to be higher than CFR China’s, leading to the CFR China talks light. Towards the end of the month, there was a shortfall in FOB Korea. CFR China’s turnover rose to 659 US dollars per ton, which led to more and more serious inversion of internal and external markets and continued to form a strong support for domestic resources.

3. Future Market Forecast

1. Crude Oil: Next week, oil prices will probably rise, but the intensity is still small. US crude oil will stabilize at the $60/barrel level.

2. Domestic market: In June-July, the overhaul load of factories has been increasing. The upside-down of internal and external plates in the early period may lead to a substantial reduction in the arrival of goods in June. In addition to the hot weather, the reservoir area has the consideration of lowering the safe liquid level. It is expected that the supply or a certain reduction will support the price of subsequent pure benzene.

3. External disc: The internal and external discs continue to hang upside down, and the extent of hanging upside down has increased, which forms a certain support for the price of the internal disc.

Taking into account, the pure benzene market will continue to rise slightly next week.