Price Trend

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has been tidied up slightly. As of September 4, the price of butadiene was 10434 yuan/ton, rising by 12.59% annually and falling by 21.84% year-on-year, according to business association monitoring.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: The domestic butadiene market has risen slightly. Although the supplier’s price has not been significantly adjusted for the time being, some business offers are relatively firm, but the downstream inquiry intention is weak, and sporadic negotiations are mainly low-end. Fushun Petrochemical announced its export plan, together with a certain amount of other export manufacturers, the expected increase in market supply is obvious; however, the downstream rubber market is weak, some private enterprises parked, the supply and demand fundamentals weakened, and the business mentality is empty.

On the market side, the supply and demand of butadiene market in East China are weak. Although the spot resources are limited in the region, the downstream inquiry atmosphere is weak. The market atmosphere is cautious and bearish. The delivery price of high-grade products is tentatively referred to at around 10900-11000 yuan/ton, and they are discussed separately. The butadiene market in Shandong is weak, the spot resources in the region are relatively abundant, the prices of some export manufacturers are lower, and the downstream wait-and-see situation remains unchanged. The high-quality products of intermediaries are sent to the offer for reference of about 10400-10500 yuan/ton for discussion.

Installation: Yangtze Petrochemical 220,000 tons/year plant, 3 Jiutai, Inner Mongolia, operates at low load with a small amount of export. Puyang Bluestar 50,000 tons/year extraction unit operates steadily and is exported normally.

3. Future Market Forecast

Although the price in the north is slightly higher and slightly lower, the spot supply in the short-term East China market is tight, and there is no obvious expectation of expansion of the market supply. There is a certain consumption of domestic spot in the downstream. Business analysts expect that the short-term domestic butadiene market will be maintained and tidied up. They suggest that attention should be paid to the guidance of market turnover.

Price trends:

In August 2019, the crude benzol Market rose after stabilization. The ex-factory price in North China was 3716.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 3930 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 5.74%.

The crude benzol commodity index on August 31 was 61.54, unchanged from yesterday, down 53.32% from the cyclical peak of 131.84 points (2013-01-28), and up 56.79% from the lowest point of 39.25 on December 22, 2014. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market analysis:

Domestic market: The crude benzol Market rose 5.74% monthly after this month’s turbulence, and the price entered a stable channel at the end of the month. Since August, the crude benzol market prices have fallen slightly, down by about 100 yuan/ton, mainly due to excessive pre-rise, increased downstream cost pressures, narrowed profit margin, and strong resistance to crude benzol’s high level. Ring. On the 20th or so, the positive factors of the market were released centrally, the external market of pure benzene rose continuously, and downstream profits such as hydrobenzene increased gradually, bringing benefits to the crude benzene market. As of Shandong and Shanxi, the prices of the main markets had risen to about 4100 yuan/ton and 500-550 yuan/ton per week. However, due to the lack of downstream support, hydrobenzene enterprises have more overhauls, limited demand for crude benzene, downstream maintenance just need to replenish, and insufficient market support. By the end of the month, the price of crude benzol in Shandong, Hebei and other places was relatively strong. The price of crude benzol in Shanxi and Henan decreased slightly. By the end of the month, the mainstream price in Shandong was around 4100 yuan/ton, while that in Shanxi was about 3950 yuan/ton.

Industry Chain: Crude Oil: In August, crude oil shocks in Europe and the United States declined. Oil distribution fell 6.54% from the end of last month, while U.S. oil fell 3.91% from the end of last month. Bear: Mainly affected by trade disputes, market concerns about slowing economic growth, declining demand for crude oil intensified, and oil prices fell. Game with other positive factors, leading to this month’s international oil price shocks. Pure benzene: At the beginning of the month, the price of crude oil and external pure benzene continued to fall, which had a negative impact on the domestic market, and the downstream market was relatively weak, and the price of pure benzene fell. Affected by typhoon in the middle of the year, some installations in Shandong stopped, the supply decreased, and the price of pure benzene rebounded. Subsequently, due to the shortfall in the supply of pure benzene in the United States, the price of pure benzene in the U.S. dollar disk continued to rise, and the arbitrage window between the United States and South Korea remained open, supporting the domestic pure benzene market to improve.

3. Trend forecast:

With the National Day approaching in September, manufacturers are facing increasing pressure on environmental protection and cautious market mentality. In addition, domestic pure benzene stocks are relatively small, and Korean plant overhaul and European overhaul are not over yet. Global supply is tight, which boosts the market. The crude benzene industry chain is expected to rise slightly next week.

Price Trend

In August 2019, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in North China fluctuated and remained stable as a whole. In August, the average price of mainstream hydrochloric acid quotation in North China rose from 123.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 146.67 yuan/ton at the middle of the month, an increase of 18.92%, and then fell to 123.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month. On the whole, the hydrochloric acid Market in North China fluctuated in August and remained stable as a whole. On August 31, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 32.46.

II. Market Analysis

(1) Products:

This month, some manufacturers in the hydrochloric acid market quoted higher prices, but the overall continuation of the previous general market. Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid quotation is 100 yuan/ton, the quotation is temporarily stable; Dezhou Meihua hydrochloric acid quotation fell from 60 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10 yuan/ton at the end of the month, the quotation fell by 50 yuan/ton, Jinan Yuanfei hydrochloric acid quotation is 200 yuan/ton, the quotation is temporarily stable; Hengtai chemical hydrochloric acid quotation is 180 yuan/ton, the quotation is temporarily stable; Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid quotation is first from month. The initial 110 yuan/ton rose to 190 yuan/ton in the middle of the month, an increase of 80 yuan/ton, and then fell to 160 yuan/ton at the end of the month.

(2) Industrial chain:

The positive price consumption of liquid chlorine in the upstream market supports hydrochloric acid to some extent. The downstream dyes, calcium chloride and chloroethane still buy hydrochloric acid on demand in the early stage. The hydrochloric acid market as a whole is still weak. By-product acid shocks the market. The pressure of hydrochloric acid shipment is high. The quality of by-product hydrochloric acid produced by TDI, chloropropene, propylene oxide and methane chloride is relatively good. For the purpose of shipment, each manufacturer has the situation of inverted freight shipment. Overall, the difficulty of delivery of hydrochloric acid is still a major problem.

(3) Industry:

In August 2019, there were 37 commodities on the rise and fall list of commodity prices in the chemical sector, of which 15 commodities increased by more than 5% accounted for 17.9% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (39.93%), acetic acid (20.90%) and butadiene (14.47%).

There are 39 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 15.5% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines are yellow phosphorus (-27.58%), epichlorohydrin (-23.28%) and sulfur (-19.38%).

This month’s average rise and fall was 0.03%. Generally speaking, the market of chlor-alkali industry has not increased much, and the slight increase of chlor-alkali market has limited impact on the demand for hydrochloric acid.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the adjustment in August, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. Business analysts believe that the upstream liquid chlorine is good in the near future, but the downstream demand for rare earth and fuel is still general, and by-product acid shocks the market. Business analysts believe that the late hydrochloric acid market is still more vulnerable to consolidation.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the price of aniline rose in August as a whole compared with last month. At the beginning of this month, the price of aniline was 5570-5900 yuan/ton. At the end of this month, the price of aniline was 6000-6300 yuan/ton. The monthly increase was 7.7%. The highest price of this month appeared in July 22-24.

II. Analytical Review

1. Raw materials: At the beginning of the month, the price of crude oil and external pure benzene continued to fall, which had a negative impact on the domestic market, and the downstream market was relatively weak, with the price of pure benzene falling. Affected by typhoon in the middle of the year, some installations in Shandong stopped, the supply decreased, and the price of pure benzene rebounded. Subsequently, due to the shortfall in the supply of pure benzene in the United States, the price of pure benzene in the U.S. dollar disk continued to rise, and the arbitrage window between the United States and South Korea remained open, supporting the domestic pure benzene market to improve.

2. Products: Aniline cost support weakened at the beginning of the month, and downstream demand weakened, prices weakened, to 14 to reach the lowest price. On the 15th, it began to warm up along with the cost side. Affected by typhoon in mid-August, both upstream and downstream facilities were parked, aniline was also affected, and the supply was reduced. In the latter part of the year, Nanhua mainly prepared its cargo and reduced its external supply.

3. Downstream: In August, there were more production restrictions and weak demand, which limited the increase of aniline.

3. Future Market Forecast

1. Raw materials: At present, domestic pure benzene stock is relatively small, and Korean plant overhaul, European overhaul is not yet over, global supply is tight, boosting the market. Hearing that the current CFR China talks in September are still on the low side, it is expected that shipments will be limited throughout September. At present, the price difference between Sinopec and other domestic pure benzene enterprises is relatively small, and there is still an upward possibility.

2. Domestic market: Environmental protection supervision will continue until the end of October, the start-up load is still not high, and the limited demand for aniline will still restrict the growth rate of aniline.

Considering comprehensively, the cost support is strong, and the price of aniline has been on the strong side recently.

Price trends:

According to the data from the business associations’list, the domestic PA6 market was weak in August, with prices falling. Traders’mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 for Sino-Viscose is about 13650.00 yuan/ton, which is 2.50% lower than that at the beginning of the month.

2. Analysis of influencing factors:

In August, the starting rate of caprolactam liquids in the upstream of PA66 has increased, the spot supply in the market has improved, and the support of supply and demand has weakened. In July, amide liquids market declined this month, while the spot turnover of caprolactam liquids in East China declined. Upstream product cyclohexanone shock adjustment, cost support weakened. The downstream slice Market is light, the profit of the aggregation plant is difficult, and the enthusiasm of raw material procurement is not high. At the end of the month, the spot supply tends to be balanced, the profit margin of the factory is narrowed, and the price of the merchants is mainly competitive. At present, the market of caprolactam is running steadily. The weakening of caprolactam weakens the support for the cost of PA6. The domestic spot supply of PA6 is relatively sufficient, and the follow-up improvement of downstream demand is limited to maintain the purchasing just needed. In the mid-term, the US news of the postponement of the release of China’s tariff policy was positive. Domestic business confidence improved and the decline of PA6 eased. However, high-price orders were still difficult to deliver, traders had greater resistance to shipment, and buyers and sellers were cautious in their operation.

3. Future market forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in August PA6 upstream caprolactam fell at the beginning of the month, weak and stable adjustment. The cost-side support for PA6 is weakened. Sino-US trade frictions release easing signals to boost business confidence, but PA6 downstream stock follow-up mood is general, demand has not improved, there is resistance to delivery. Spot supply of domestic PA6 is stable, and it is expected that PA6 will dominate in the near future.

On August 28, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 102.63, which was the same as yesterday. It was 13.33% lower than the peak of 118.42 points in the cycle (2019-01-15), and 32.65% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 points on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Domestic ammonium nitrate market prices were temporarily stable on the 28th. Domestic ammonium nitrate plants were running smoothly and in the off-season of downstream demand. Ammonium nitrate manufacturers’shipments were general and downstream purchases were on demand. In addition, affected by environmental protection control, the downstream civil explosion industry in China was shut down a lot. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers had limited start-up and their prices maintained low on-site. Bit level. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream in Shaanxi was 190-2000 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 190-2000 yuan/ton, and in Hebei was 1850-1950 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection, some downstream factories were forced to limit production or stop production and overhaul for environmental protection inspection. Demand for ammonium nitrate was at a low level, and the market price of ammonium nitrate went away. The situation is temporarily stable.

Recently, the price of nitric acid in domestic market has been weakly lowered. The price quoted by mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu is 1600 yuan/ton, and the quotation is stable. Anhui mainstream manufacturers quoted 1600 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan per ton from last week. Shandong manufacturers quote 1600 yuan/ton, the price is stable. Quotations from most manufacturers are stable, while those from a few manufacturers are declining. Nitric acid shipment situation is still poor, the low price trend of nitric acid has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate remains low; the domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upstream is volatile, the market performance is general, the market turnover is still acceptable, the market price of liquid ammonia is 3210 yuan/ton, and the upstream cost of liquid ammonia is lower. In addition, the inventory pressure of most manufacturers has increased compared with the previous period. Some plants have been restarted and local ammonia supply in the region has increased. Especially in Shanxi and North China, most manufacturers have sufficient supply of ammonia. The price quoted by manufacturers in North China is maintained in the range of 2900-3400 yuan/ton, in Northwest China in the range of 2500-2600 yuan/ton, and in liquid ammonia banks. The low price has a negative impact on the downstream ammonium nitrate market. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has increased. However, the price trend of liquid ammonia market is temporarily stable, and the market of ammonium nitrate is shaking at a low level due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market prices remain volatile, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to remain low in the later period.

Price Trend

Potassium sulphate prices have remained stable this week, according to business community price monitoring.

II. Market Analysis

Potassium sulfate domestic sales of new single reduction, business owners depend on the volume of support, high temporary stability. In the late autumn, potassium chloride will be limited in the consumption area of fertilizer production. However, the demand for potassium sulfate is expected to decline, and the price center will be under pressure and the preferential space will be widened. The overall starting rate of potassium sulfate in China is about 60%. Mannheim’s factory is under the pressure of high-price potassium chloride, and the cost pressure is high. At present, the 50% powder ex-factory price is more than 2850-2900 yuan/ton. The 52% potassium sulfate content is slightly better, and the ex-factory price is more than 3000-3050 yuan/ton. In autumn, the demand for downstream compound fertilizers has been pushing forward slowly, but there is no obvious advantage.

3. Future Market Forecast

Potassium sulphate analysts of business associations believe that the domestic potassium sulphate market is expected to stabilize in the later period, with local fluctuations dominating.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the domestic adipic acid market has not changed much this week compared with last week. The quotations of dealers are mostly stable, and the range of increase and fall is controlled at 50-100 yuan/ton. By the end of the weekend, the quotation is generally between 8500 and 8650 yuan/ton.

II. Analytical Review

This week, adipic acid market tends to stabilize, the market continued last week’s weak market, there is still no improvement, the market performance is weak, the market atmosphere is slightly cold, distributors actively shipped mainly, adipic acid market rise and fall within 100 yuan, the market maintains a weak volatile pattern, the current downstream market wait-and-see mentality is relatively strong. Heavily, the transaction is slightly deadlocked, and there is room for business to concede profits. Social inventories are still under pressure, with shipments slightly lower than last week.

On the supply side, the market supply is stable, and the local performance is mainly excessive supply. For example, East China, and many distributors say that the inventory pressure is high, the start-up rate of the plant is high, the market inventory and the inventory of the manufacturer are rising. This week, distributors actively take goods, so there are also relatively low-cost supplies flooding the market. There is a certain bargaining space, the market price quotation and the stock price difference are still in stock. The quotations of distributors in North China, East China and South China have been adjusted to varying degrees. Most regions maintain a stable market.

In terms of demand, downstream demand is still weak, nylon 66 factories do not have centralized purchasing behavior, downstream start-up rate is still slightly insufficient, the start-up rate is basically around 50%, the upstream adipic acid did not form a strong boost, because the previous rebound basically depends on upstream pure benzol, cost-effective driving. In the passive follow-up, at present, the cost and profit are more than enough, the market gradually returns to rationality, and the market also enters the de-inventory cycle. According to the monitoring of business associations, the reference price of East China market is about 8500-8650 yuan/ton, while that of South China is generally between 8500-8700 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of adipic acid in Business Society Chemical Branch believe that the price performance is not satisfactory at present. The supply and demand of adipic acid are basically in a balanced pattern. Therefore, Business Society believes that adipic acid market may continue to maintain a narrow adjustment pattern in the short term.

Price data

According to the price monitoring of business associations, gasoline and diesel prices fell slightly this week. Domestic gasoline prices were 6,694 yuan/ton, down 0.88% from last week’s gasoline prices; domestic diesel prices were 6,519 yuan/ton, down 0.37% from last week’s diesel prices.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week, international crude oil prices rose first and then fell, the overall slight rise, but since 24:00 on August 20, domestic gasoline and diesel prices were reduced by 210 yuan and 205 yuan per ton, respectively. In the early part of this week, the domestic oil product market was shrouded in the haze of price reduction and the recovery of refinery unit start-up rate suppressed the rise in oil product prices.

Industry Chain: API report earlier this week showed that crude oil stocks in the U.S. decreased by 3.454 million barrels last week and active drilling in July decreased by 17. The report data showed that crude oil was on the rise, but UBS lowered oil price expectations for six months and 12 months later, OPEC also lowered global crude oil demand growth expectations by 40,000 barrels per day to 1.1 million in 2019. Barrel/day, while worries about the global recession continue to rise. International crude oil prices rose first and then fell this week, while WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose slightly by 1.62% and 2.90% this week.

On the market side: In the early part of this week, with the continuous rise of crude oil and the tense situation of gasoline resources in eastern and southern China, downstream suppliers actively replenished, and the main units pushed up the price of gasoline. As for diesel oil, with the price of diesel oil gradually rising to a relatively high level in the near future, the industry’s wait-and-see mood gradually rises, and the shipment situation of refineries gradually weakens. Earlier affected by typhoon, Eastern China and Shandong provincial refineries have been reworked one after another, which has suppressed the domestic oil product market.

3. Future Market Forecast

Lu Xingjun, a product oil analyst at Business Association, believes that the international crude oil market is on the rise, and the gasoline and diesel market is still confident of the demand growth brought about by the “gold, silver and ten”. The price of the product oil market is expected to rise steadily next week.

Recent fluctuations in the domestic rare earth market, since August, the rare earth market has shown a “reverse V” trend. In early August, the price of the rare earth market rebounded, but began to decline gradually in mid-August. As of No. 16, the price of some rare earth in China has risen slightly, which is affected by domestic policy and Sino-US trade war. The trend of the soil market is fluctuating. According to the Shangshu rare earth plate index, on August 18, the rare earth index was 370 points, down 63.00% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 36.53% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015.

As of August 18, the average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium in rare earth metals in China was 386,500 yuan/ton, 2.3 million yuan/ton and 695,000 yuan/ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium oxide, neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide, praseodymium oxide and neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides is 3.325 million yuan/ton, 1.94 million yuan/ton, 3.825 million yuan/ton and 3.345 million yuan/ton respectively. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys is 386,500 yuan per ton, and the average price of dysprosium and iron alloys is 193,000 yuan per ton.

After mid-August, the price trend of heavy rare earth dysprosium-terbium system is relatively stable, Myanmar still restricts the export of rare earth, the supply pattern of domestic heavy rare earth market has not changed, the domestic supply is still tense, the domestic price maintains a high level, and the recent domestic policy is still fermenting, bringing certain benefits to the domestic heavy rare earth market. Expect.

Since August, the price of light rare earth has changed frequently. In the first ten days of August, the price of praseodymium and neodymium products has risen by 4.5%. The price of neodymium oxide and praseodymium neodymium oxide has risen first. However, the downstream demand for light rare earth has not improved significantly. A small number of downstream merchants replenish their products on demand, and the actual transaction price is still at a low level. Looking forward to a strong mood, in mid-August the market prices of light rare earth have fallen, prices fell back to the beginning of August. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to environmental protection supervision in the whole country. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazard of some products, which makes environmental protection supervision stricter. Under strict environmental protection inspection, manufacturers control sales reasonably, but in the near future, they are greatly affected by external environment. They mainly benefit from the active distribution of new energy fields by mainstream automobile factories at home and abroad. The increasing number of new energy vehicles has brought some favorable support to the rare earth market. The price of domestic rare earth market has changed a lot, but in the near future, the market has changed a lot. Large conglomerates are also cautious about pricing their products.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has made no reduction in its stringent efforts, which has a greater impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a low start-up and a cold market. At the recent press conference on macroeconomic operation held by the Development and Reform Commission, Meng Wei, spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), answering reporters’questions on rare earth, said that on the basis of in-depth investigation and scientific demonstration, relevant policies and measures would be put forward to give full play to the special value of rare earth as a strategic resource. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and people in the domestic market are waiting for the good news of the policy and the national reserve.

Rare earth analysts of business associations expect that in the near future, domestic environmental stringent inspection will not be reduced, coupled with domestic rectification of the order of the rare earth industry, Myanmar’s export restrictions and normal supply, but the recent rare earth market trading situation is general, focusing on national storage and Sino-US trade and other factors, the national policy has brought rare earth to a certain extent. Good support, rare earth market prices are expected to remain volatile.