1、 This week’s market review: After a deep decline, the market quickly rose, and the price significantly increased
As of August 2, 2026, the benchmark price of propylene recorded 7927.67 yuan/ton, a cumulative increase of over 400 yuan/ton from the stage low of 7511 yuan/ton on July 28, basically recovering the sharp decline lost from July 27-28. From the daily rhythm, propylene has shown a typical “V-shaped” reversal this week:

2、 Moving average system and moving average signal: The downward momentum is depleted, and the rebound signal is confirmed
From the line chart, it can be seen that the 10 day moving average continued to decline after July 27th, while the 20 day moving average (blue line) was relatively flat. The previous moving average was negative and expanded negatively at one point, corresponding to the acceleration stage of the decline on July 27-28.
But with the rapid rebound of prices since the 29th, the slope of the short-term 10 day moving average is expected to gradually flatten or even turn, and the moving average enters a “negative narrowing” channel, indicating the weakening of bearish power and slowing down of the decline; If the subsequent 10 day moving average crosses the 20 day moving average, it will form a clearer upward signal.
3、 Fifth gear position and space judgment: Running near the center position, with limited upper and lower space temporarily
From the position data of the cycle, after the rebound, propylene is mostly in the “middle” position at the 10 day, 60 day, and one-year levels, and at the “middle low” position at the 20 day, 30 day, and 90 day levels. This means:
The price has exited the “low” risk zone on July 28th, but there is still room to approach historical or extreme highs; The combination of “median+mid low” usually corresponds to the characteristics of a volatile market, and the cost-effectiveness of one-sided chasing or killing is not high, which is more in line with the expectation of “high volatility”.
4、 Fundamental driven: resonance between demand repair and cost stabilization
Behind this round of rebound is a dual benefit of macro and industrial fundamentals:
Demand side recovery: With the return of profits, multiple downstream propylene units have been restarted one after another, leading to an increase in essential purchases and a direct boost to propylene prices;
Cost side support: Crude oil has stopped falling and rebounded, solidifying the bottom range of propylene from the raw material side;
5、 Future prospects
Based on the comprehensive average deviation index and the five level position, propylene is likely to maintain a high volatility and slightly stronger operating trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether the 10 day moving average can effectively cross the 20 day moving average to confirm a new round of upward momentum; If the moving average continues to decrease in a negative direction and eventually turns positive, the upward signal will be more solid. In terms of operation, it is recommended to approach the current “median” range with a volatile mindset, closely monitoring the degree of downstream restart realization and fluctuations in the crude oil market.

1、 Price trend

As of July 31st, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane was 6166 yuan/ton. This week, cyclohexane ended its continuous decline since July and entered a weak stable horizontal trend at a low level. The benchmark price was 6166.67 yuan/ton on July 27th, and remained unchanged at 6166.67 yuan/ton on July 31st, a decrease of 13.95% from 7166.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, at the bottom of the price range in the past year, two years, and three years.
2、 Market analysis
Market analysis: Regional prices: Mainstream ex factory prices in Shandong range from 5956-6600 yuan/ton, Shenmu Fuyou prices at 5956 yuan/ton, and high price areas in East China continue to rise and fall around 7800 yuan/ton. Trading characteristics: a shortage of large orders, mainly consisting of rigid demand small orders and bulk retail; Traders and enterprise warehouses are generally above average, with discounts on shipments being common. High end quotations have a price but no market. Related products: cyclohexanone 8800-8900 yuan/ton slightly increased, caprolactam 12147 yuan/ton fluctuated, and adipic acid 8233 yuan/ton slightly decreased. Cyclohexane is a weak link in the chain.
In terms of cost: Pure benzene spot: mainstream price in East China is 6055 yuan/ton (slightly increased by 20 yuan per week), price in North China is 6030 yuan/ton, and price in South China is 6050 yuan/ton; Jiangsu hydrogenated benzene costs 6275 yuan/ton. The utilization rate of pure benzene production capacity is 78.14%, with a weekly output of 435700 tons and an East China port warehouse of 163000 tons (a weekly decrease of 4.12%). The overall supply is loose and the rebound is weak. Crude oil transmission: Brent DTD is weakly fluctuating at about 69.59 US dollars per barrel, while naphtha is slightly adjusted at 581.5 US dollars per ton, without forming a unilateral sharp rise or fall. The hydrogenation process has rigid costs but no upward pressure.
Downstream demand: Main demand (caprolactam/adipic acid/cyclohexanone): Caprolactam capacity utilization rate is 95.72% (high but terminal nylon 6 slice orders are flat), adipic acid production is 64.32% low, cyclohexanone plant production is 70-75% low, textile and nylon products are in the traditional off-season, downstream only maintains basic inventory, and does not release incremental procurement. Solvent and intermediate: coatings, pharmaceutical intermediates, general solvents, due to environmental protection and summer off-season overlap, production is low, and some buyers have switched to substitute products or postponed procurement.
Supply side: Domestic cyclohexane plants have started operating at 62-66% capacity, while Luxi, Hualu Hengsheng, Haili and others have resumed operations after maintenance. Shanxi Lanhua’s 20000 ton by-product plant has been shut down but the total plate capacity has not been changed; The export volume of integrated devices is still high.
3、 Future forecast
Cyclohexane analysts believe that from late August to September: pay attention to the triple signals of stocking of caprolactam/nylon end “Golden Nine”, destocking of pure benzene ports to below 120000 tons, and seasonal strengthening of crude oil. If both are realized, cyclohexane is expected to recover to 6500-6900 yuan/ton, but it is difficult to return to the level of 7000+in early July.

1、 Price trend

As of July 26th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises is 4420 yuan/ton, and the DMF market is generally in a low-level stalemate and narrow consolidation trend. The mainstream delivery price in East China is between 4500-4600 yuan/ton, Shandong and North China are between 4370-4470 yuan/ton, and South China is between 4600-4700 yuan/ton. Some factories quote about 4300-4420 yuan/ton, which is slower than the previous decline but lacks rebound strength.
2、 Cause analysis
In terms of the market, the weak game between supply and demand is evident. The supply side has abundant spot goods, with some devices undergoing maintenance and restarting alternately, and major manufacturers have the intention to raise prices; The demand side is in the traditional high temperature off-season, and there is a shortage of orders for PU pulp (accounting for about 60% of consumption) corresponding to industries such as shoes, clothing, and luggage. Downstream implementation of “on-demand procurement” is mainly based on small orders for essential needs, and traders are actively selling and reducing inventory, with a strong wait-and-see attitude.
In terms of raw materials, the fluctuation of methanol raw material is relatively weak due to the expected impact of port accumulation, while the overall stability of liquid ammonia/synthetic ammonia is limited, with limited cost support. Due to the synchronous decline of raw materials, the theoretical profit of the factory remains at around 300 yuan/ton, and the top enterprises still have profits. The willingness to actively reduce production and raise prices is not strong, and it is difficult for the cost side to drive price increases.
Construction situation: The industry’s capacity utilization rate remains at a low level of 40% -45% (recent statistics show about 44.6%). Some facilities in Henan, Guizhou, Shandong and other places have experienced negative, short-term or long-term shutdowns due to profit or inventory pressures, and the supply increment has converged. However, the surplus pattern has not changed, and the overall supply is still relatively loose.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts believe that in the short term, it is expected to fluctuate narrowly at a low level, with insufficient upward momentum. If the raw material methanol continues to weaken and the maintenance equipment restarts, the supply pressure will reappear; Attention should be paid to the implementation of major factory maintenance and changes in listing prices at the end of July. If autumn and winter orders start and demand rebounds after August and September, there may be substantial opportunities for rebound. Currently, the main focus is still on digesting inventory and following up on essential needs.

1、 Price trend

The overall price of caustic soda has been consolidating this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the weekend was around 643 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.49% compared to last year. On July 16th, the Business Society Chlor Alkali Index was 732 points, a decrease of 4 points from yesterday, a decrease of 65.60% from the highest point of 2128 points during the cycle (2021-10-24), and an increase of 3.54% from the lowest point of 707 points on February 27th, 2026. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region has risen, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 620-660 yuan/ton. In Zhejiang region, the price of caustic soda is around 830-860 yuan/ton when 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is delivered to Xiaoshan mainstream market. In Inner Mongolia region, the price of caustic soda is consolidating, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 1850-1950 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). This week, the price of caustic soda has stopped falling and stabilized for caustic soda enterprises. There is an expectation of supply contraction caused by equipment maintenance in East China next week, but there is little significant demand increase in the traditional downstream off-season. The price of alumina is running weakly, and most buyers have a strong wait-and-see attitude. Some aluminum plants are replenishing their inventory appropriately based on their own inventory levels, while alumina plants have low participation in spot trading and offer relatively cautious quotes. The downstream demand for non aluminum continues to be sluggish, with more on-demand procurement and no improvement, putting pressure on the market.
Analysts believe that in the near future, the caustic soda prices have been consolidating this week. Recently, downstream alumina companies in China have received shipments, and non aluminum enterprises have generally received shipments. The caustic soda prices have recently stopped falling and stabilized, but due to large inventory, it is not a substantial positive news. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda may tend to consolidate, depending on downstream market demand.

This week, the styrene market stopped falling and rose. On July 6th, the average price of styrene was 7380 yuan/ton, and on July 10th, the average price of styrene was 7810 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.83% during the cycle and a decrease of 1.24% year-on-year.

Macro: On July 9th, international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the August WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $72.08 per barrel, a decrease of $1.44 or 2.0%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September was $76.30 per barrel, a decrease of $1.72 or 2.2%.
On the cost side: The Middle East conflict has been fluctuating throughout the week, with crude oil prices rising and pure benzene production rates falling to a historic low. Supply is tight, leading to a strong upward trend in pure benzene prices. Downstream production has declined, with some downstream areas experiencing a downturn, resulting in pressure on production rates. Overall, with strong cost support and expectations of increased exports, it is expected that the pure benzene market will show a strong trend in July.
Supply and demand side: Styrene is affected by low profits, resulting in reduced production or delayed restart of some facilities. The current supply is relatively loose. Downstream 3S production remains between 45% and 60%, with overall low production and insufficient demand support.
Styrene external market: On July 9th, the closing price of styrene in the Asian region rose by $2/ton, and the FOB closing price in South Korea was $997-1007/ton. CFR China closing price ranges from $1012 to $1022 per ton.
Market forecast: Currently, the demand side of the styrene market enters the market on demand, the purchasing atmosphere has improved, and transactions have improved. In addition to the expectation of tightening on the supply side, the fundamentals have been boosted and strengthened, and it is expected that the styrene market will experience strong fluctuations in the short term.

Commodity market trend: In June, the mainstream market trend of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ion degree) in China was weak, with a main market price of around 14160 yuan/ton on the 30th, a decrease of 0.28% from the beginning of the month price of 14200 yuan/ton.

The core of polyacrylamide production relies on upstream raw materials such as acrylonitrile. The overall acrylonitrile market remained stable in June, with an average price of 10133.33 yuan/ton as of June 30, which was stable compared to June 1. The prices of raw materials propylene and synthetic ammonia fell in June, providing limited support for acrylonitrile.
In terms of downstream applications, polyacrylamide is mainly used in municipal sewage treatment, industrial wastewater treatment, sludge dewatering, papermaking, oil fields and other fields. In June, municipal sewage, industrial printing and dyeing, and papermaking sludge disposal enterprises started operating steadily, with limited new orders; Downstream procurement mainly relies on replenishing inventory as needed, with weak willingness to hoard in large quantities. The market lacks favorable conditions for price increases, and traders have a sluggish follow-up sentiment.
Market forecast: The cost side acrylonitrile market is currently weak, with limited support for polyacrylamide prices. The demand side continued to experience high temperatures in July, and the demand for water treatment and industrial sludge disposal is unlikely to show a significant rebound in the short term. The demand side is still weak. If there are no sudden environmental restrictions or maintenance plans on the supply side, the operating rate of mainstream enterprises will remain stable, the market supply will be sufficient, and there will be insufficient motivation for significant price increases. It is expected that the polyacrylamide market will consolidate weakly in July.

In June 2026, the domestic sulfuric acid market showed an overall trend of high volatility, alternating rises and falls, strong resilience, and intensified regional differentiation. The overall price center shifted significantly upward compared to May, and the monthly overall closing rose, completely breaking away from the weak and volatile market in the previous period. The overall resistance of the market to decline significantly increased.

From a cost perspective, the core characteristics of the cost side in June were wide fluctuations in sulfur, steady strengthening of auxiliary materials, and a shift in market pricing from cost anchoring to supply and demand dominance, with cost support. The sulfur price at the port surged to 11600 yuan/ton in the first half of the month, but fell back to 9200 yuan/ton in the second half, with a monthly fluctuation of over 2400 yuan/ton; But the sulfur inventory at the port is at a low level for many years, and the space for deep decline in raw materials is limited. The price of sulfur concentrate has slightly increased, continuing to support the cost of mineral acid. The industry has obvious profit differentiation, with sulfuric acid generally experiencing cost inversion losses, while mineral acid and smelting acid still maintain reasonable profits.
Supply side: Maintenance and production reduction, tight supply of goods
In June, the industry entered the concentrated maintenance season, coupled with the loss reduction of sulfuric acid enterprises, the national sulfuric acid production rate decreased year-on-year, and the overall spot inventory was low. Multiple sets of main equipment in Central and East China have been shut down for maintenance, resulting in a temporary supply gap. The production of new capacity has been delayed, and there will be no incremental release in the short term. At the same time, sulfur resources are directed towards the phosphate fertilizer market, causing a shortage of raw materials and limited production for chemical grade acid enterprises. The market supply is rigidly shrinking, and enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices.
On the demand side: Traditional demand is weakening, and new energy demand is providing support
The structural differentiation of downstream demand is significant. Traditional downstream industries have entered the off-season, with low production and losses in industries such as phosphate fertilizers, titanium dioxide, and caprolactam. They are strongly resistant to high priced sulfuric acid and tend to purchase on demand without stocking up. The only support comes from the new energy track, with high production and sufficient orders in the iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate industries, stable procurement of essential needs, effectively offsetting the decline in traditional demand, and becoming the core support for high acid prices.
In June, the market situation in various regions showed significant differentiation, with an overall pattern of central China leading the rise, southwest supplementing the rise, southern China differentiation, and stability maintenance in eastern and northern China. Central China has centralized maintenance, scarce supply of goods, and strong demand for new energy, resulting in a strong upward trend in prices; The low-priced supply in Southwest China has been cleared, and the demand for phosphate fertilizers and new energy has rebounded, leading to a steady increase in acid prices; The price difference within the South China region has widened, with Guangxi and Fujian being stronger and some parts of Guangdong being weaker; Due to the decrease in sulfur prices, cost support in East China has loosened, while North China has slightly strengthened, with limited overall fluctuations in both regions.
From the perspective of Business Society, the overall forecast for the sulfuric acid market in July is that it will remain strong at a high level, slightly biased towards strength, and regional differentiation will continue, with no significant fluctuations. On the supply side, equipment maintenance continues, new production capacity is temporarily suspended, and market supply remains tight. Low sulfur inventory forms a cost floor, and the market bottom is firmly supported. On the demand side, in the mid to late autumn, fertilizer preparation is launched, and traditional demand is marginally recovering. Coupled with the sustained high demand for new energy sources such as lithium iron phosphate, overall demand support is sufficient. From a phased perspective, the market remained stable and slightly strong in the first half of the year, with some areas experiencing an upward trend of 50-100 yuan/ton in the middle. The pattern of regional price differentiation will continue.

1、 Price trend

As of May 26th, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane is 7416 yuan/ton. Currently, cyclohexane is mainly operating in a narrow range, and weak demand is suppressing its upward trend.
2、 Market analysis
In terms of supply, domestic supporting refining and other facilities have started operating steadily, with an overall capacity of 62% -66%, no centralized maintenance, sufficient spot circulation, synchronized and stable operation of supporting caprolactam facilities, and an increase in the external supply of commodity cyclohexane. The overall market supply is loose, and traders have high inventory levels in the early stage, with a strong willingness to ship and a focus on profit sharing.
In terms of demand, the core downstream demand for cyclohexanone, adipic acid, and nylon slices has been followed up, with no centralized replenishment of inventory, maintaining a small amount of procurement according to demand. The downstream demand for coatings and pharmaceutical solvents is low during the off-season, with low production rates and a slower pace of procurement. Downstream demand is resistant to high priced raw materials, and the wait-and-see sentiment has intensified after the price drop, with very little stock taking.
Market mentality: This week, the market fell first and then stabilized. Traders mainly focused on destocking, while downstream traders watched and waited for lower prices. Trading on the market was light, with most transactions being small orders for immediate needs and no large orders being made.
3、 Future forecast
The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that with sufficient supply, off-season demand, and no significant rebound in costs, the short-term cyclohexane volatility is weak, and there is insufficient momentum for a significant increase; If pure benzene stops falling and stabilizes, spot prices may maintain a sideways consolidation in the current range of 6000-6900.

From June 19th to 26th, 2026, the domestic toluene market experienced a volatile downward trend, with the price of toluene in the Shandong region dropping from 6151 yuan/ton to 5834.33 yuan/ton, representing a 5.15% increase during the period.

This week, the overall trend of the domestic toluene market is weak, with a continuous downward shift in market focus and a quiet trading atmosphere on the exchange. The market is in a weak adjustment trend, and under the game of long and short, the market lacks conditions for upward momentum, resulting in significant pressure on overall operation. This week, the domestic toluene market continued to decline weakly, with the price center continuously shifting downwards and overall market trading being weak.
Cost aspect: Crude oil oscillation weakens, support strength continues to be insufficient
This week, the overall international crude oil market showed a volatile downward trend, with only a few trading days experiencing a slight rebound due to factors such as geopolitical situations. The overall volatility was weak, and the cost support for the toluene market remained weak. The aromatic hydrocarbon futures market fluctuates synchronously with the crude oil trend, mostly running short, making it difficult to boost confidence in the spot market. During the week, crude oil prices fell below key levels multiple times, leading to a decrease in toluene production costs. Petrochemical companies continued to lower their listed prices, further lowering the market’s spot price center. At the end of the month, crude oil closed slightly higher and aromatics were stronger in the evening session, but it could only briefly boost market sentiment and could not reverse the weak cost side pattern, resulting in insufficient overall bottoming out effect. As of June 25th, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.92 per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September contracts was $75.50 per barrel.
Supply side: Overall abundant supply, slow inventory digestion
Domestic refineries have maintained stable operation, with a relatively small number of toluene unit maintenance enterprises this week. Mainstream production enterprises are running smoothly, and the market circulation of goods continues to be abundant. The main production areas such as East China and South China have sufficient supply of goods, and the flow of goods between regions is smooth, without obvious supply shortages. The pressure of port inventory is controllable, but due to weak demand, the pace of inventory digestion is slow, which has a hidden suppression on prices. The activity of export negotiations is low, the demand in the international market is weak, and the flow of goods through export channels is not smooth, making it difficult to divert domestic trade sources and further exacerbating the situation of loose domestic supply.
Demand side: Weak demand during the off-season and strong wait-and-see sentiment
This week, the industry is in a traditional off-season for consumption, and the overall downstream demand release pace is slow. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, and the market is mainly focused on purchasing goods according to demand. The operating rate of the terminal industry remains low, with insufficient order volume and weak demand for toluene procurement, making it difficult to form bulk procurement support. After the continuous decline in prices in the early stage, the sentiment of low-level replenishment has slightly increased, but most of them are short-term small order purchases, and the overall purchasing strength is weak, making it difficult to improve the enthusiasm for purchasing in the terminal market. The price difference between pure benzene and toluene remains narrow, and the upward space for toluene is limited, which further suppresses downstream purchasing enthusiasm and maintains a low level of market trading activity.
Market forecast:

In the short term, the toluene market continues to fluctuate at a low level, and there is no obvious rebound in the market. The price is difficult to break away from a weak pattern in the short term. There is still uncertainty in the fluctuation of crude oil on the cost side, and the pressure of abundant supply on the supply side continues. The demand side has weak recovery during the off-season, and there is still a slight possibility of price decline under multiple bearish factors. We will continue to closely monitor the trend of crude oil prices in the future. As the off-season gradually ends, downstream demand is expected to steadily rebound. Coupled with the gradual adjustment of market fundamentals, it is expected that the toluene market will gradually stop falling in the future, and there is a possibility of a moderate recovery trend in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

The average market price of baking soda at the beginning of the week was 1225 yuan/ton, and the average market price of baking soda over the weekend was 1222.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2% and a decrease of 3.86% compared to the same period last year. On June 17th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 81.14, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 65.60% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (November 10, 2021), and an increase of 3.83% from the lowest point of 78.15 points on January 15, 2026. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the product analysis system, the baking soda market is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is running weakly, with a factory price of 1080-1200 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1100-1200 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been consolidating this week. The current market average price is 1166 yuan/ton, and downstream customers tend to purchase according to their needs.
Analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, and the upstream raw material soda ash has also been consolidating recently. However, downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand recently, and demand enthusiasm for baking soda is still acceptable. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly consolidate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.