According to the market analysis system, the domestic toluene market fluctuated upwards in January 2026, breaking the weak pattern of December and achieving an increase. Cost side support and pre holiday replenishment became the core drivers, and the increase at the end of the month narrowed due to insufficient demand follow-up. From January 1st to 29th, the domestic toluene market price increased from 5170 yuan/ton to 5450 yuan/ton, with a cumulative price increase of 5.42% during the period. The overall operating range has significantly shifted upward compared to the previous month.

Mid to mid month: The domestic toluene market entered a volatile upward trend. As a core production area, Shandong was driven by the continuous recovery of crude oil prices, and its main refineries were the first to raise their prices. In mid month, the mainstream price range rose to 5300-5350 yuan/ton, an increase of over 150 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month; The synchronous rise in East and South China regions, coupled with the upward adjustment of Sinopec’s quotation, has gradually enlivened the market trading atmosphere, and the focus of negotiations has steadily shifted upwards. The high point for the month reached 5480 yuan/ton at one point.
Late March: The market entered a high volatility trend, with quotations in East and South China maintaining high levels. However, after the end of the terminal stage of replenishment, the purchasing willingness declined, highlighting the dominant characteristics of market demand. Although refineries have a strong willingness to raise prices, the pace of shipments slows down. In some regions, to promote transactions, slight discounts are offered, and prices stabilize after a slight correction, maintaining a high volatility overall. Finally, the end of month price closed at 5450 yuan/ton.
On the cost side: The market trend this month presents distinct stage characteristics, with a rebound after a surge, but overall it still maintains a high position. At the beginning of the month, relying on tight supply, external market upward movement, and downstream pre holiday stocking expectations, the market opened a strong upward trend, and enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices, with consecutive price increases and rapid price surges; In the middle of the month, with the strong linkage of downstream synthetic rubber futures and the hot atmosphere of spot trading, prices continue to hit new highs, and spot resources are scarce, making it difficult to find low-priced sources of goods; At the end of the month, with a significant increase in prices and a sharp rise in downstream raw material costs, profits continue to be under pressure, and the enthusiasm for entering the market for procurement has significantly declined. High priced transactions have been hindered, and the market has experienced a phase of correction. However, due to the lack of obvious loose support from the supply side, the magnitude of the correction is limited, and the overall operation remains at a high level. Prices have risen sharply during the month. As of the 28th, the settlement price of the March WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $63.21 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in April was $67.37 per barrel.
Demand side:
According to the market analysis system, as of January 29th, the price of xylene by Sinopec Sales Company has remained stable, with a current price of 7300 yuan/ton. This price will be uniformly implemented in the four major regions of East China, North China, Central China, and South China; The main units of Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical are operating stably, with normal product sales, and the current price has increased by 300 yuan/ton compared to December 30th.
In terms of international markets, as of January 28th, the closing prices of para xylene (PX) in the Asian region were 898-900 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 923-925 US dollars/ton CFR China, an increase of 31 US dollars/ton from the end of last month. The strengthening of the PX market has boosted the overall atmosphere of the domestic aromatic hydrocarbon sector, and the PX futures contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen synchronously. The closing price of the 2603 contract was 7392 yuan/ton, an increase of 184 yuan/ton from the end of last month, forming a positive driving force for the toluene market.

Market forecast:
The current domestic toluene market is intertwined with bullish and bearish factors: on the one hand, international crude oil prices remain high and volatile, with cost support still present, and the Asian PX market continues to strengthen. The overall atmosphere of the aromatic hydrocarbon sector is relatively warm, coupled with the tight supply of toluene in Shandong region and limited circulation of goods, which provides support for toluene prices; On the other hand, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches in downstream industries, companies are gradually entering a phase of shutdown and stocking up, and terminal demand is gradually entering a low season. The pace of resuming work and production after the holiday is not yet clear, and the market lacks sustained demand growth support. In addition, after the end of the month’s periodic replenishment of inventory, the market is dominated by immediate demand, and operators are cautious about pursuing higher demand.
Overall, the toluene market is expected to maintain a high volatility pattern in the short term. Prior to the Spring Festival, prices are unlikely to experience a significant correction due to cost support and tight supply. After the holiday, it is important to focus on the trend of crude oil prices, downstream resumption of work and production progress, and the linkage performance of the PX market. These factors will become the core variables that dominate the subsequent market trends.

This week, the domestic liquid ammonia market continued its downward trend from last week, with a sluggish market performance. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the weekly decline of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province was 1.32%, with a slight narrowing of the decline. The main reason is due to the abundant supply of ammonia, which has led to a growing festive atmosphere and downstream shutdowns and load reductions, resulting in weakened demand. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2150-2350 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply, this week’s supply has increased compared to last week. The main production areas in the north have stable output, while the supply of liquid ammonia in Shandong and Hebei regions is stable. In Anhui, Jiangsu and other regions, the supply of equipment has resumed, and the amount of ammonia has increased. Although Shaanxi’s environmental protection has limited production, the surrounding supply is large, and prices in the northwest and Inner Mongolia regions are still showing a downward trend. According to the monitoring of Shengyi Society, large factories in Shandong Province have gradually adjusted their prices within the week, with the adjustment range generally in the range of 50 yuan. The market shows oversupply, and enterprises still have expectations of resuming work in the later stage. Supply may continue to increase in the later stage.
From the demand side, downstream demand has shown average performance, with the operating rate of compound fertilizers still at a low level. In some downstream areas, phosphate fertilizer enterprises have been affected by environmental protection, resulting in a continuous decline in operating rates and relatively weak demand. Urea rose this week mainly due to the approaching Spring Festival and short-term downstream buying behavior, which may be difficult to sustain in the later stage. According to the commodity analysis system, the weekly increase in urea was 1.15%. In addition, the domestic industrial demand is weak, and agricultural demand is mainly purchased on demand with sporadic restocking. The improvement in demand is not significant, and the market’s wait-and-see mentality still dominates.
Market forecast:
Business analysts believe that the supply and demand pressure in the liquid ammonia market is expected to continue next week, mainly due to the impact of the expected resumption of plant work, and there are still supply risks in the market. However, there may be room for improvement in agricultural demand, and there are signs of a rebound in the operating rate of downstream products such as monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate. The game between supply and demand will strengthen in the later stage, and the market for feed ammonia may still maintain a range of fluctuations.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aniline market continued to rise this week. On January 19th, the market price of aniline was 8545 yuan/ton, and on January 23rd, it was 8745 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.34% during the cycle and a decrease of 3.61% compared to the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and Review
This week, the aniline market continued to rise, with raw material pure benzene prices increasing multiple times. At the same time, aniline supply maintained low inventory, downstream demand entered the market, and supply side sales remained stable, actively pushing up prices. As of this Friday, the mainstream price of aniline in China has risen to 8700-8800 yuan/ton.
Cost wise: This week, the pure benzene market has been strong and rising. Refinery production reduction combined with import volume reduction has led to a decrease in pure benzene supply, and the fundamentals of pure benzene have also improved. Port inventories fell from a high level in the first week, and downstream demand for delivery has been boosted. The supply and demand have improved in stages, and the instability of the geopolitical situation has not been eliminated. The short-term market is mainly characterized by strong fluctuations.
3、 Future expectations
The current inventory status of the aniline market and downstream resistance to high priced raw materials have increased. It is expected that the aniline market will consolidate and operate after a short-term rise, and close attention will be paid to changes in raw materials and supply and demand in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic formic acid market has recently stabilized horizontally. As of January 19th, the benchmark price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in Shengyi Society was 2300 yuan/ton, which was the same as the beginning of the year, a month on month decrease of 18.73%, and a year-on-year decrease of 22%.

Supply and demand pattern: loose supply and stable demand form a dynamic balance
Supply side: The market has always maintained a loose supply pattern, with sufficient market supply and smooth circulation channels. The consensus reached by core production enterprises such as Liaocheng, Feicheng, and Jingzhou in Hubei Province to reduce production and maintain prices has not changed the current pattern of loose supply, but effectively curbed the risk of price decline and sent a clear signal to the market to raise prices. This is also one of the important supporting factors for the current mainstream prices to remain firm.
On the demand side, influenced by the long-term stable operation of prices, downstream enterprises’ procurement mentality tends to be rational, and the procurement pace gradually stabilizes, abandoning the previous wait-and-see attitude and shifting to an on-demand procurement model, effectively digesting the market’s loose supply resources.
At the inventory level, under the dual effects of loose supply and stable demand, manufacturers’ inventory levels have shown a mild downward trend, gradually approaching the industry median range, effectively alleviating inventory pressure, and forming a virtuous cycle of “loose supply but orderly destocking”.
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s formic acid market, based on the current market situation, the loose supply side pattern has not changed, but there are measures to reduce production and maintain prices to support the bottom. The demand side procurement is stable and the rigid demand is stable. The inventory level has moderately fallen back to a reasonable range. Under the combined effect of multiple factors, the domestic formic acid market is likely to continue its current horizontal consolidation state in the short term, and the mainstream transaction price will continue to operate steadily around 2300 yuan/ton. Specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market will rise from January 1 to January 15, 2026. On January 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 5170 yuan/ton, and on January 15th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5310 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.71%. The core driving force for the market’s upward trend in this cycle is the support of crude oil costs, tightening of the supply side, and favorable linkage of the aromatic hydrocarbon industry chain. However, in the later stage, due to the wide fluctuations of crude oil, cautious downstream price chasing, and regional supply expectations differentiation, the market’s continued upward momentum is weak, and pressure to maintain stability at a high level is gradually emerging.

Cost wise: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 15th, the settlement price of the March WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $59.08 per barrel, and the settlement price of the March Brent crude oil futures contract was $63.76 per barrel. The international crude oil prices have shown a wide range of fluctuations in this cycle, with a “continuous rise at first and a significant correction at the end of the month”, and there are stage differences in the cost support for the toluene market. In the early stage, international crude oil futures achieved five consecutive increases, with WTI crude oil surging above $60 per barrel and Brent crude oil rising simultaneously, with prices reaching highs in nearly two months, creating a strong atmosphere for the commodity market and directly driving up the prices of toluene and upstream and downstream aromatic hydrocarbon products. Domestic crude oil futures also strengthened synchronously, rising continuously from January 9th to January 13th. The closing price on January 13th reached 445.6 yuan/barrel, up 29.4 yuan/barrel from the low point on January 8th, with significant cost support. But on January 15th, international oil prices experienced a sharp decline, and the geopolitical premium quickly dissipated. Affected by factors such as the easing of relations between Venezuela and the United States, the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, and the decline in OPEC+production reduction execution rate, WTI crude oil fell 3.31% in a single day, reporting $59.83 per barrel; Brent crude oil fell 3.49% to $64.19 per barrel, marking the largest daily decline since November 2025. The short-term sharp decline in oil prices has weakened the cost side support for toluene, coupled with increased market expectations for subsequent oil price fluctuations, which has suppressed the upward momentum in the toluene market and weakened the driving force for continued growth.
Supply side:
This cycle, the overall supply of toluene in China is tight, and there is a significant differentiation in various regions due to differences in equipment operation and delivery, which has become the core support for driving up prices. The tight and balanced supply in Shandong region continues, with the strongest driving force for price increase. The restart of Xinyue Chemical Plant has been delayed, and Youtai Technology has stopped for maintenance. Huaxing Petrochemical’s toluene is mainly for self use, while Yulong Petrochemical’s regional circulation has decreased. The supply of goods continues to shrink, and refinery bidding premiums have normalized, with prices actively pushing up, reaching the 5000 yuan/ton mark and active trading. The decline in the arrival volume of ship cargo in the storage area of Jiangsu region has led to a tight spot market, coupled with the favorable price increase of crude oil and aromatic products. Holders of goods are actively pushing up prices, and paper goods trading is frequent. The export arbitrage window has opened up, further strengthening the mentality of reluctance to sell, and prices have risen along with Shandong. The Guangdong region is showing a trend of “tightening first and then loosening”, with delayed arrival of cargo in the early stage driving up inventory and price increases, and the gradual arrival of cargo in the later stage putting pressure on prices. In addition, the main refineries in China have started operating steadily, but there is a surplus of self use.

Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of December 12th, East China Company quoted 5400 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5200 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5500 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5250 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PX price of Sinopec Sales Company is uniformly implemented at 9300 yuan/ton in East China, North China, and South China regions. The main units of Rongsheng Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical are operating stably, and production and sales are smooth. As of January 15th, the closing prices of PX markets in Asia were $980-982/ton FOB Korea and $1005-1007/ton CFR China, up 2.17% and 2.33% respectively from January 1st, indicating a significant upward trend in both domestic and foreign prices.
Market forecast: Wide fluctuations in crude oil prices and cautious downstream pursuit of price increases will lead to weak momentum in the toluene market, resulting in an increase in weak sentiment within the market. The pattern of regional differentiation will further expand: the tight supply situation in Shandong region continues, but there is still some support; Jiangsu region benefits from the export arbitrage window, and holders have a strong willingness to raise prices; The Guangdong region is under significant pressure on prices due to the impact of new cargo shipments. It is expected to fluctuate within the range next week, and special attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil prices, the progress of equipment maintenance in Shandong, and the impact of Guangdong cargo arrival on the market.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the styrene market has seen a slight increase this week. The average price at the beginning of the week was 6792 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 6850 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.85%.

News: On January 8th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the February WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $57.76 per barrel, an increase of $1.77 or 3.2%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for March was $61.99 per barrel, an increase of $2.03 or 3.4%.
Cost wise: The pure benzene market has been weak and volatile this week. Recently, there is an expected increase in pure benzene supply, coupled with high port inventories and weak demand. It is expected that the market for pure benzene will continue to fluctuate within a certain range in the short term.
Supply and demand side: The supply of styrene remained stable this week, and port inventories remained high. Downstream ABS load remains stable, PS load increases, and EPS load decreases seasonally. The direct downstream production of styrene does not change much, and there are more seasonal fluctuations.
Styrene external market: On January 8th, the closing price of styrene market in Asia increased by $2.5/ton, with closing prices of $850-855/ton FOB Korea and $860-865/ton CFR China.
Market forecast: Recently, the styrene market has been significantly boosted by news reports, with strong support from crude oil. It is expected that the styrene market will experience strong fluctuations in the short term.

According to the company’s commodity market analysis system: the domestic mixed diphenyl market in 2025 the average price at the beginning of the year is 6110 yuan / ton, the average price at the end of the year is 5510 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decline of 9.82%. The overall trend of mixed diphenyl market in 2025 is weak, basically divided into two stages, the first half of the year is stagnant and the second half is continuously falling back.
From the point of view of the K-chart of the mixed diphenyl month, the mixed diphenyl market will fall more and less in 2025, five months in the upward month and seven months in the downward month, with the highest increase of 9.17% in January and the highest drop of 12.21% in April.

A review of the mixed diphenyl benzene market in 2025
First Half: Supply and Demand Game, Interval Shock Up 0.16%
Cost side: crude oil, petroleum shock drag
Crude oil: In the first half of the year, international crude oil showed a “surge and fall” trend, Brent crude oil rose to $83/barrel at the beginning of the year due to U.S. energy sanctions against Russia, and fell to about $73/barrel in June due to global oversupply expectations.
Petroleum: Domestic petroleum supply was stable in the first half of the year. Business Association data show that in January-June, domestic petroleum production accumulated 37.8 million tons, an increase of 3.2% year-on-year, Shandong and Guangdong main production areas maintained the start-up rate of 75% -80%; April with crude oil fell to 6550 yuan / ton low, May-June with crude oil rebounded to 7100 yuan / ton, raw material cost fluctuations were directly transmitted to the mixed diphenyl market, driving its price synchronous shock.
Supply side: Domestic production capacity is not released as expected supply first tighten and then loosen
In 2025, it was originally planned to add 4,563,000 tons of mixed diphenyl production capacity, but due to the narrowing of the triphenyl price gap and the decline in production profits, the new unit was put into production more postponed. According to statistics, as of the end of June, only Zhenhai Refinery 360,000 tons, Wanhua Group 30,000 tons of units were put into production, the industry average start-up rate of 68% -72%, China Petrochemical and China Petroleum main refinery export sales remained low, and the monthly export sales accounted for less than 30% in May.
Demand side: PX and oil mixing demand alternately pull overall weakness
PX is the first consumption area of mixed diphenyl (accounting for 62%), the first half of the year demand is “weak and strong”. January-April MX-PX spread narrowed to 300 yuan / ton, PX enterprise extraction activity is low; May spread expanded to 800-900 yuan / ton, short process production profitability repair, Shenghong petrochemical and other enterprises increased monthly extraction of more than 120,000 tons, driving mixed diphenyl turnover increased by 40%, the spot market was boosted by a marked increase in prices.
Mixing demand accounted for 28%, weak performance in the first half of January-June domestic gasoline exports decreased by 12.89% year-on-year, only in March and May due to the rebound in oil prices and the easing of trade between China and the United States, there was a gradual recovery; the penetration rate of superimposed new energy vehicles increased to 38%, the proportion of mixed diphenyl mixing oil was reduced from 15% to 12%, and the consumption in the field of mixing oil increased by only 1.2% year-on-year in the first half of the year, which has a limited effect on the market.

Second half: Supply and demand fell to three-year low
According to the company’s commodity market analysis system, the domestic mixed diphenyl market in July-December 2025 will show a “shock downward, slight rebound at the end of the year” trend, and the market’s gravity will shift significantly from 2024 throughout the year.
Cost side: crude oil low shock, petroleum support weakened
Crude oil: International crude oil continued to be weak in the second half of the year, in July-September due to the weak global economic recovery, OPEC + production cuts were not implemented as expected, Brent crude oil fell from $ 66 / barrel to a low of $ 58 / barrel in September; in October, although the Middle East geo-tensions rebounded to $ 72 / barrel, but the surplus supply is expected to resume in November-December, and fell to close to $ 60 / barrel at the end of the year, and the cost side of mixed diphenyl support continues to weaken.
Petroleum: Domestic petroleum supply was stable in the second half of the year. Supply was abundant to suppress prices, the average price of petroleum in the second half of the year fell by 6.9% compared to the first half, and crude oil rebounded slightly to 6,600 yuan / ton in December, but the overall cost support for mixed diphthalene was limited.
Supply side: Release of new capacity
In the second half of the year, the domestic mixed diphenyl supply pattern reversed. Before July, the market continued its partial tightness in the first half, and Yulong Petrochemical Phase II plant went into production in August (about 1.2 million tons / year). With the release of new equipment in Ningbo, Yantai and other places, the total domestic production capacity exceeded 15 million tons per year, and the industry’s start-up rate rose from 72% to 78%. On the import side, the third quarter import window continued to open, and the monthly import volume increased by 15%, and the inventory of the East China port climbed from 300,000 tons to a high level of 420,000 tons. Although the partial refinery overhaul after October, the start-up rate fell to 62%, but under the new capacity domination, the supply in the second half of the year still increased by 8.5%, and the market shifted from tight balance to relaxation.
Demand side: PX support is limited
In the second half of the year, the MX-PX spread narrowed from 800 yuan / ton to 500 yuan / ton, and PX enterprises’ export activity decreased. Although the PX plant was slightly replenished in the fourth quarter due to the cost recovery, there was no new PX production capacity throughout the year, and the demand for mixed diphenyl increased by only 3.2%, which is weaker than in the first half.
Mixing: In the second half of the year, the demand fell by 1.5% year-on-year due to the improvement in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the upgrading of gasoline quality (the proportion of mixed diphenyl mixed from 12% to 11%).
Mixed Diphenyl Market Outlook for 2026:
Cost side: 2026 oil price low shock weak cost side support

While the supply-side surplus pattern will continue into the first half of 2026, the IEA forecasts an average global oil surplus of 4.09 million barrels per day, with U.S. shale oil expected to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day. OPEC+ plans to suspend production in the first quarter of 2026, but internal differences and insufficient idle capacity have led to limited regulatory effects, and the price center is likely to continue to move down. As well as the impact of OPEC+ policy regulation, the business agency predicts that the crude oil market as a whole will show a “low shock” trend in 2026.
Raw materials: steady growth in petroleum production, adequate supply of raw materials
With the continuous improvement of China’s refining capacity and the continuous release of downstream market demand for petroleum, China’s petroleum production continues to grow steadily. Data show that China’s petroleum production in January-November 2025 is about 73.95 million tons. The main production areas of domestic petroleum are Shandong, Guangdong, Liaoning, Zhejiang and other provinces, with Shandong Province accounting for about 35%. Provides important raw material security.
Domestic petroleum production is expected to grow slightly in 2026, with a year-on-year increase of about 0.6% to 1%, which will lay a solid foundation for the supply of toluene.
Supply: expected increase
In 2026, the pace of expansion of domestic mixed diphenyl production capacity accelerated, Hengli Petrochemical, Shenghong Refining, Huajin Arami and other leading enterprises’ refining integrated supporting aromatic hydrocarbons units, concentrated in the second half of the year 26, mainly concentrated in Bohai and East China, the two regions jointly contributed more than 70% of the new production capacity. According to statistics, by the end of 2025, the total domestic mixed diphenyl production capacity has reached 15 million tons / year, and the capacity scale in 2026 will break through 16.6 million tons / year, an increase of 10% year-on-year.
Demand: Stable and rising
Domestic mixed diphenyl demand in 2026 will show a pattern of “steady growth in the core area, compression in the traditional area, replacement in the emerging area”, the overall demand growth rate will moderately increase compared to 2025, the expansion of PX industry and emerging applications will become the core driving force, and the demand for oil mixing and traditional solvents will continue to be weak.
PX field: PX demand will grow steadily in 2026, the company’s data show that in 2026, domestic PX is expected to add 3.6 million tons of new production capacity, focusing on the second half of production, the annual capacity growth rate of 6%, the corresponding mixed diphenyl demand will increase to 8.8 million tons, an increase of 7.6% year-on-year.

Mixing field: Mixing demand is still facing multiple suppression in 2026. With the penetration rate of new energy vehicles expected to rise to 45%, the growth rate of domestic gasoline consumption slowed to 1.5%, and the proportion of mixed diphenyl in mixing is further reduced to 11%.
Solvents and other areas: Solvents will remain stable but structurally differentiated in 2026. Due to the tightening of VOC emissions control, the growth rate of demand for conventional mixed diphenyl in the field of traditional coatings and pesticides continues to slow down. However, high-purity mixed diphenyl (purity above 99.8%) Due to the environmental advantages, the proportion of applications in high-end coatings and environmentally friendly solvents has increased to 20%, and the price is 15%-20% higher than conventional products. In addition, the demand for new energy battery solvents, pharmaceutical intermediates and other emerging fields has grown rapidly, and the average annual growth rate is expected to reach 7%, becoming an important supplement to the demand for solvents.
Future Market Forecast:
In the short term: the supply side of the domestic new production capacity has not been released, the industry start-up rate is maintained at 75% -80%, the low inventory level in the East China port supports the price; in the import side, the Asia-American arbitrage window is gradually opened, the import volume or slight growth, but it is difficult to change the supply and demand balance pattern. Unilateral market conditions are difficult, and the spot market is expected to be dominated by range shocks, with price fluctuations ranging from 5500 to 5700 yuan / ton.
In the long term: Hengli, Shenghong and other new production capacity will be concentrated in the second half of 2016, but the environmental protection policy will strengthen to push some small and medium-sized production capacity out, to compensate for the supply pressure. On the demand side, the release of PX new production capacity led to mixed diphenyl demand to grow by 7.6% year-on-year, becoming the core driving force; the proportion of high-purity mixed diphenyl in the high-end solvent field is increasing, and the emerging demand is weak in the traditional field. degree, crude oil price trends and environmental policy enforcement efforts.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of acetic acid continued to rise in December, with a price of 2750 yuan/ton as of December 30th, an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared to the price of 2550 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, an increase of 7.84%.

The acetic acid market continued to rise strongly in December. Although some manufacturers have restarted their equipment within the month, unplanned equipment has reduced load, coupled with slow recovery of production in Jiangsu, the operating rate of acetic acid is still relatively low. At the same time, downstream demand purchasing has created a good market trading atmosphere, and enterprise inventory continues to decline. Manufacturers have a strong mentality of supporting prices, and under the leadership of suppliers, acetic acid prices continue to rise.
The raw material methanol market is experiencing strong fluctuations. As of December 30th, the average price in the domestic market was 2200 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 3.53% compared to the beginning of the month price of 2125 yuan/ton. The low inventory in the methanol port market provides support for prices. The operating rate in the mainland market remains high, with downstream purchases of essential needs being the main focus. The room for price increases is limited, and there is a game of supply and demand in the market. The methanol market continues to fluctuate and consolidate.
Market forecast: Business analysts believe that there are still maintenance plans in the supply side acetic acid market, and enterprise inventories may continue to decline. Downstream stocking operations before the Spring Festival are expected, and the market trading atmosphere is optimistic. There is strong support from the market, and it is expected that the acetic acid market will continue to rise next month. Specific attention should be paid to downstream follow-up situations.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market continued to decline in December. As of December 29th, the average price of maleic anhydride offers was 5112.50 yuan/ton (including tax), a decrease of 2.85% from 5262.50 yuan/ton on December 1st.

In terms of supply, the maleic anhydride market continued to decline in mid to early December, and the bidding prices of Wanhua continued to fall. The transaction situation was poor, which limited the support for the maleic anhydride market. The prices of the main maleic anhydride factories continued to fall, and coupled with downstream digestion of early raw material orders, new order signings were limited; In late December, as the maleic anhydride market fell to its annual low point, there were lockdowns in major production areas, and there were reports of supply side production cuts. The weak consolidation of the maleic anhydride market was the main trend. As of December 29th, the factory price of solid anhydride in the maleic anhydride market in Shandong Province is around 4800 yuan/ton, while the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 4400 yuan/ton.
Upstream: The price of pure benzene in the Shandong region fluctuated in December. On December 1st, the price was 5254.33 yuan/ton; On December 29th, the price was 5268.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.25% from the beginning of the month. Recently, the shipment sentiment of Shandong refined pure benzene has been cautious, and the price is mainly stable. The transaction volume on the spot market in East China is average, and the paper goods negotiations are average. The main focus is on closing multiple orders within the month. The price of pure benzene in Sinopec’s refineries in East and South China remained stable at 5300 yuan/ton.
The n-butane market fluctuated downward in December, with Saudi CP prices rising in December, but the naphtha market falling. As of December 29th, the n-butane price in Shandong was around 4570 yuan/ton.
Downstream: The weak consolidation of unsaturated resin market in November was mainly due to the decline in raw material side maleic anhydride prices and limited cost support; In addition, the sluggish terminal demand at the end of the year and the maintenance of essential downstream procurement have limited support for unsaturated resin.
The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that currently, domestic maleic anhydride has fallen to an annual low point, and some manufacturers have engaged in closing operations; Wanhua’s auction transaction has improved; The main downstream unsaturated resin procurement of maleic anhydride is in urgent need, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market may have an upward trend in the near future.

In 2025, the domestic acetone market will enter a period of deep adjustment, and the market price will show a weak pattern of “fluctuating downward and continuous bottoming out” throughout the year. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, as of the end of 2025, the annual cumulative decline of the domestic acetone market reached 32.37%, and the price continued to decline from the high of 5992 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. At the end of the year, the mainstream market quotation in East China had fallen to around 4050 yuan/ton, reaching a market low in nearly six years. The significant decline this time is the inevitable result of multiple factors such as supply-demand mismatch, weakened cost support, and negative feedback in the industrial chain during the industry expansion cycle, which has had a profound impact on the upstream and downstream industrial ecology of acetone.

The price trend of domestic acetone market in 2025 can be divided into three clear downward stages, with a continuous and gradually expanding decline throughout the year. The first stage is the “slow downward period” from the beginning of the year to the end of the second quarter. Due to the slower than expected demand recovery after the Spring Festival, the market price gradually fell from 6300 yuan/ton in January to 5500 yuan/ton at the end of June, with a cumulative decline of 12.69% over the past six months. The market trading is mainly driven by rigid demand, and traders are cautious. The second stage is the “accelerated decline period” in the third quarter, during which the traditional “Golden September” peak season was missed, coupled with the concentration of imported cargo at the port causing inventory to rise. Prices quickly fell to 4800 yuan/ton, a single quarter decline of 12.73% in the third quarter, and the industry experienced widespread losses for the first time. The third stage is the “low-level oscillation period” in the fourth quarter, with prices fluctuating narrowly within the range of 4000-4300 yuan/ton. Although there are signs of stabilization in this stage, it was affected by insufficient support from supply and demand fundamentals. At the end of the year, it finally closed at 4050 yuan/ton, and the cumulative decline for the whole year was officially fixed at 32.37%.
Supply side: Concentrated release of production capacity combined with import supplementation, setting a loose supply pattern
In 2025, the domestic acetone industry is still at the end of its high-speed expansion cycle, and the concentrated release of new production capacity has become the core source of pressure for the supply side. According to statistics, the net production capacity of acetone in China will increase by 510000 tons per year in 2025, with a total production capacity exceeding 4.48 million tons per year. Among them, a company in Shandong with 200000 tons per year and a company in Zhejiang with 60000 tons per year were successfully put into operation from the end of the third quarter to the beginning of the fourth quarter, directly leading to a 15% -20% month on month increase in market supply in the fourth quarter. At the same time, the progress of phasing out outdated production capacity did not meet expectations, with only a total of 100000 tons/year of outdated production capacity being eliminated by Yanshan Petrochemical and Jilin Petrochemical throughout the year, which has limited relief effect on the supply side. The continuous replenishment of the import market has further intensified the pattern of loose supply. In 2025, the import volume of acetone will remain high throughout the year. In December alone, the import volume of ships and cargo from East China ports reached 50000 tons, of which 26000 tons have successfully arrived at the port and 24000 tons are still in transit. The port inventory has stabilized at a relatively high level of 24000 tons, effectively filling the temporary gap in domestic supply. Even though some domestic phenol ketone plants have entered the traditional maintenance season and the operating rate has dropped to the second lowest point of 65% this year, the maintenance cycle is generally short (15-20 days), and companies have already stocked up before the maintenance, which has not fundamentally changed the fundamental situation of oversupply.

Demand side: downstream weak transmission, insufficient support in core consumer sectors
The continuous weakness of downstream demand for acetone has led to a general supply-demand imbalance pressure in core downstream industries, and the procurement demand for acetone has only remained at the level of essential demand. As the largest consumer area of acetone, the bisphenol A industry is still in an expansion period in 2025. However, due to weak demand from downstream polycarbonate and epoxy resin industries, its operating rate remains low, and the procurement of acetone is only replenished according to demand, making it difficult to form an effective driving force. Although its consumption proportion remains stable at around 36%, the absolute demand growth rate has slowed down to 0.8%. The second largest downstream MMA industry using acetone cyanohydrin method also showed weak performance, affected by the slower than expected expansion of the new energy photovoltaic module and high-end display industry, resulting in a significant decline in the growth rate of demand for acetone compared to previous years; The MIBK industry, on the other hand, has seen a price drop of 300 yuan/ton compared to November due to the intensification of its own supply-demand contradiction. Downstream demand for acetone has been further weakened due to strong willingness to lower prices. In addition, the traditional solvent industry has been affected by the tightening of environmental policies and the impact of alternative products, resulting in a continuous decline in demand. The weak performance of multiple industries has formed a cumulative effect, leading to a lack of incremental momentum in the demand side of the acetone market.
Cost side: Weakening of raw material prices and significant weakening of cost support
For acetone production enterprises, non integrated enterprises are most severely impacted, with continuous losses leading to a passive decrease in operating rates and a gradual concentration of market share towards integrated enterprises. By 2025, the vertical integration rate of domestic acetone production capacity has increased to 71%. Integrated enterprises have significantly stronger risk resistance capabilities due to their advantages in pipeline transportation and logistics costs, as well as their ability to hedge upstream and downstream profits. However, the overall industry profitability level is still inevitably declining.
From the perspective of Shengyi Society, the domestic acetone market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern at the beginning of 2026, with limited upward potential for prices. On the supply side, the operating rate of domestic phenol ketone plants is expected to slightly increase, coupled with the concentration of imported cargo in transit at the port by the end of 2025, port inventory may climb to 28000 to 30000 tons, further highlighting the pressure of loose supply; On the demand side, the operating rates of core downstream industries such as bisphenol A and MMA are difficult to substantially improve, and the solvent industry still relies mainly on on-demand procurement, lacking incremental support on the demand side; On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene and propylene markets are expected to experience narrow fluctuations, making it difficult to form effective cost support. The resistance to price decline mainly comes from the reluctance of traders to sell at low levels. It is expected that spot prices in East China will fluctuate within the range of 4050-4100 yuan/ton.
Overall, the cumulative decline of 32.37% in the domestic acetone market in 2025 is a concentrated reflection of the supply-demand imbalance during the industry expansion cycle. In the short term, the industry will still face profit pressure, and companies need to focus on inventory control and cost management; In the long run, with the optimization of industry structure and improvement of supply and demand pattern, the acetone market is expected to gradually return to a rational operating range.