1、 Price trend
This week, the overall price of caustic soda is running strongly. The average market price at the beginning of the week was around 637 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was around 639 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.31% and a year-on-year decrease of 24.82%. On September 17th, the chlor alkali index was 734 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 65.51% from the cycle’s highest point of 2128 points (2021-10-24), and an increase of 3.82% from the lowest point of 707 points on February 27th, 2026. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
This week, the price of caustic soda has been operating strongly. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 580-700 yuan/ton for 32% ion membrane alkali in the mainstream market. In Zhejiang region, the price of caustic soda is around 830-860 yuan/ton for 32% ion membrane alkali delivered to Xiaoshan mainstream market. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion membrane alkali is around 1850-1950 yuan/ton (converted to 100 yuan).
This week, the 32% liquid alkali market in Shandong region showed inconsistent fluctuations, but the overall trend was strong. The overall load in Shandong is basically controlled at around 80% level. It is estimated that some non aluminum downstream caustic soda will be stocked appropriately before the holiday, and the chlor alkali plant will control inventory before the holiday. The price of alumina is showing a fluctuating trend. Currently, the pace of raw material procurement in alumina plants is normal, and the probability of short-term large-scale production reduction in the market is low. It is expected that the price will continue to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend. Non aluminum downstream demand continues to increase through on-demand procurement.
Analysts believe that in recent times, the price of caustic soda has been operating strongly this week, and downstream domestic alumina suppliers have been purchasing on demand, with non aluminum companies receiving only average orders. Although there will be pre holiday stocking next week, caustic soda manufacturers have maintenance expectations, and the comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda may tend to operate in a consolidated manner, depending on downstream market demand.

This week, the styrene market continued its upward trend, with an average price of 9900 yuan/ton on September 7th and 10610 yuan/ton on September 11th, representing a 7.17% increase during the cycle and a year-on-year increase of 43.49%.
Macro: On September 10th, international crude oil futures surged. The settlement price of the October WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $102.48 per barrel, an increase of $6.43 or 6.7%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in November was $107.63 per barrel, an increase of $6.42 or 6.3%.
Cost wise: The price of pure benzene has risen sharply this week. Geopolitical risks continue to drive up crude oil prices, leading to a decline in port inventories of pure benzene and a continued shortage of subsequent arrivals. In addition, with the expected increase in demand for delivery due to the double festival, the focus of pure benzene negotiations continues to rise.
Supply and demand side: The peak of styrene maintenance has passed, and two sets of facilities in Shandong have restarted, with high operating rates fluctuating. The downstream three S have poor acceptance of high prices, are cautious in chasing high prices, and mainly focus on basic essential needs.
Styrene external market: On September 10th, the closing price of styrene in the Asian region rose by $48/ton, and the FOB closing price in South Korea was $1408-1418/ton. The closing price of CFR China is 1368-1378 US dollars per ton.
Market forecast: The main reason for this round of price increase is the fluctuation of crude oil, strong cost support, and the maintenance of positive exports. It is expected that the market will maintain a strong pattern, and the overall trend will mainly resonate with pure benzene.

The domestic ethanol price has been adjusted to 5516 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.36% in the past three months and a year-on-year decrease of 0.86%. The centralized maintenance of ethanol manufacturers’ facilities has been completed, and some areas have seen an increase in supply, resulting in a continuous oversupply on the supply and demand side.
On the cost side, the average price of corn in China has slightly increased, while regional price trends vary. Corn prices in Northeast China remain stable, while those in Henan have declined. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
From a supply side perspective, the shutdown of an ethanol plant with an annual processing capacity of 4.24 million tons will occur this month. In August, China’s ethanol production was 835000 tons, with a month on month increase of 28700 tons and a decrease of 3.56%. The cumulative production from January to August 2026 was 7.0051 million tons. The impact of ethanol supply is mixed.
On the demand side and downstream side, the overall demand has slightly increased, with a total demand of 172200 tons, an increase of 0.1 million tons compared to the previous period; Domestic consumption was 172000 tons, an increase of 0.1 million tons compared to the previous period; The export volume remained basically unchanged at 0.02 million tons. In terms of downstream, the consumption of traditional Baijiu is still light; The downstream of chemical industry has improved, and the chemical industry mainly relies on contract procurement for essential needs. The demand for ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
In the future market forecast, there will be a concentrated stocking of goods before and after the holiday, resulting in an increase in demand and a rise in prices. At the same time, freight rates will rise, leading to an increase in delivery prices. Analysts predict that the ethanol market may rise.

In August, 85% of the mainstream formic acid market in China showed an overall volatile upward trend of maintaining stability at a low level, rising step by step, and closing steadily at the end of the month. The price bottom rose significantly throughout the month,. At the beginning of the month, the market continued its sideways trend as of the end of July, with prices at a low level for the year, with a benchmark price of 1800 yuan/ton. Relying on multiple factors such as low inventory levels, equipment maintenance, export boosting, and market price support, the market gradually broke through the low range and continued to shift its focus upwards. At the end of the month, the market maintained a stable high level, with a benchmark price of 2100 yuan/ton. The overall trend for the month showed a fluctuating and strengthening pattern, with a 16.7% increase during the month.

The supply-demand pattern dominates the changes in the market situation this month, forming obvious phased game characteristics
The overall supply side shows the characteristics of “offsetting the increase in production and the decrease in maintenance volume, and tightening the supply of goods in stages”. At the beginning of the month, maintenance equipment was planned to resume production one after another, and there was an expectation of increased supply in the market, which continued to suppress prices and was also the core reason for the low price fluctuations at the beginning of the month; In the middle of the month, some devices underwent centralized maintenance to offset the increase in production resumption, and the market supply tightened. Coupled with the active price hikes by enterprises, this provided core support for price increases; At the end of the month, industry inventory slightly increased, supply side pressure slightly eased, and the market tended to stabilize. At the same time, the overall inventory of the industry remained at a medium low level for a long time throughout the month, providing sustained basic support for the spot price of formic acid and effectively limiting the downward space of prices.
The overall trend of weak demand on the demand side and marginal positive boost is a key constraint factor for market fluctuations. This month, the overall production and demand of downstream terminals in China have been weak, and the pace of demand recovery is slow, making it difficult to form a sustained strong upward momentum. This has led to a lack of core support for significant price increases in most periods of the market, and the market has repeatedly entered a weak equilibrium state of sideways movement. However, the phased positive news effectively drove the market upward, and the low prices stimulated downstream to replenish inventory and purchase goods. Coupled with the stable performance of export orders within the month and the expected increase in the traditional demand peak season in September, it effectively boosted market sentiment, drove market transactions to recover, and pushed prices up multiple times.
The peak demand season in September is approaching, and prices are expected to continue rising
As the traditional peak demand season approaches in September, the demand side is expected to continue to recover, coupled with the continued upward trend in the industry, the formic acid market is likely to maintain a stable and strong operating trend, with a low probability of significant fluctuations. Specific attention still needs to be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

This week, the styrene market experienced narrow fluctuations, with an average price of 8970 yuan/ton on August 24th and 9040 yuan/ton on August 28th, representing a 0.78% increase during the period and a year-on-year increase of 19.42%.

Macro: On August 27th, international crude oil futures closed higher. The settlement price of the October WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $83.53 per barrel, an increase of $1.30 or 1.6%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in November was $88.52 per barrel, an increase of $1.58 or 1.8%.
On the cost side, the pure benzene market is experiencing strong fluctuations, with some pure benzene plants being delayed in restarting in August. The return of supply is not as expected, and port inventories remain low. Coupled with the end of month delivery gap filling, pure benzene is expected to be strong at the beginning of the week. Downstream product demand remains weak, dragging down the pure benzene market. In the future, the fundamentals of pure benzene will maintain a near strong and far weak pattern, but the short-term low inventory pattern and geopolitical support will strengthen the trend of pure benzene. However, the rebound space is limited under the expectation of supply return. We will pay attention to the downstream acceptance of high prices and geopolitical changes in the future.
Supply and demand side: Partial maintenance of styrene has been postponed for the week, the supply side has tightened, port inventory has fallen, and supply side support is still acceptable. Downstream 3S profits are low, maintaining essential procurement and limited demand side support.
Styrene external market: On August 28th, the closing price of styrene market in Asia increased, with FOB Korea closing price of 1205-1215 US dollars/ton, up 22 US dollars/ton. CFR China closed at $1175-1185 per ton, up $10 per ton.
Market forecast: The fundamentals of the styrene market have improved, and downstream follow-up is average. It is expected that the short-term market driving force for styrene will be limited, and prices will fluctuate.

The price of ethylene glycol surged in August

The price of ethylene glycol will soar in August 2026. As of August 27th, the average spot market price for domestic oil to ethylene glycol traders was 5628.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.30% from the market average price of 5011.67 yuan/ton on August 1st.
The price of ethylene glycol for port paper cargo is mainly based on basis pricing, and the price closely follows the fluctuations of the futures market. In August 2026, the futures price of ethylene glycol rose significantly, and the base price of ethylene glycol for port paper cargo remained firm. Recently, the market has fallen and the basis has slightly decreased, but the absolute price remains high. As of the 27th, the spot contract for ethylene glycol at the port (starting from 500 tons) has a daily basis price range of+400 to+460 for this week’s spot contract. (Currently, the market basis is still benchmarked against the 09 contract)
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol (loose water, tax included, self pickup) for whole vehicle manufacturers is 5200-5450 yuan/ton. At present, the manufacturer’s quotation is relatively high, and the profits of traders who hoard goods in the early stage can be reduced.
August 2026 ethylene glycol port inventory is extremely low:
On August 27, 2026, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 178000 tons, a decrease of 238000 tons from the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on July 30, which was 416000 tons.
Reasons for the significant increase in ethylene glycol prices in August 2026:
In August 2026, the price of ethylene glycol saw a significant increase, mainly due to the impact of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. The import volume to ports significantly contracted, coupled with centralized maintenance of multiple domestic facilities, resulting in overall supply tightening; The inventory of the main ports in East China has dropped to a low level in recent years, and spot prices are tight. At the same time, the rise in crude oil costs has brought about a risk premium. The market has played a game in advance to meet the demand for stocking polyester gold, silver, and silver, jointly driving up prices significantly..
The recent significant drop in ethylene glycol prices is due to:
Recently, the price of ethylene glycol has fallen sharply, mainly due to signals of easing in the Middle East geopolitical situation. The previous geopolitical risk premium quickly dissipated, and the decline in crude oil weakened cost support; Domestic maintenance facilities are gradually restarting, and the market expects that imported goods will gradually arrive at the port in September, leading to an increase in long-term supply pressure; At the same time, the peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” did not deliver as expected, and high prices suppressed downstream polyester purchasing intentions. Some companies reduced production, and combined with the previous surge, profit taking stocks concentrated and left, driving prices to quickly decline.
Market forecast:
In September, there is a high probability that the overall price of ethylene glycol will fluctuate at a high level and the volatility will increase. The fundamental tone is still tight supply, and the biggest price fluctuation variable is the fluctuation of arrival volume caused by geopolitics.
On the supply side, domestic maintenance facilities are gradually resuming production. If the navigation in the Middle East Strait improves, imports to ports will rebound month on month, and the marginal pressure on supply will increase. However, East China ports are still at historically low inventory levels, and there is still a bottoming out in the spot market;
On the demand side, polyester is facing a traditional golden September and silver October, and production is expected to slightly rebound. However, overall terminal orders are weak, and high prices are suppressing downstream active stocking, mainly for essential purchases, with limited fulfillment during peak seasons;
Geopolitics and crude oil fluctuations will still bring emotional disturbances. If geopolitical tensions rise again, it is easy to rebound. If the supply of goods is concentrated at the port or the peak season is not as expected, there is a risk of further pullback, and the overall situation shows a tight near and loose far pattern.

The domestic ethanol price has dropped to 5521 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.83% in the past three months and a year-on-year decrease of 1.89%. The contradiction between supply and demand in the ethanol market has temporarily eased. According to the current maintenance plan, it is expected that the capacity utilization rate will continue to rise in July. The market is affected by the situation of oversupply, and the ethanol market price will fluctuate and adjust.
On the cost side, there is an expectation of a slight rebound in raw material corn, and corn based ethanol companies continue to suffer losses; The price of cassava jerky remains stable, while cassava ethanol is also deeply mired in losses; South China sugar syrup ethanol follows the consumption of sugar syrup inventory, causing a decline in corporate profitability and weak market prices. The impact of ethanol cost is mixed.

On the supply side, there has been a slight decline in domestic ethanol supply. The weekly ethanol production was 187100 tons, a decrease of 10900 tons compared to the previous period; The import volume remains unchanged at 0.01 million tons; The total supply was 187200 tons, a decrease of 10900 tons from the previous period, indicating a downward trend in supply. The supply of ethanol is affected by favorable factors.
On the demand side and downstream side, the overall demand has slightly increased, with a total demand of 172200 tons, an increase of 0.1 million tons compared to the previous period; Domestic consumption was 172000 tons, an increase of 0.1 million tons compared to the previous period; The export volume remained basically unchanged at 0.02 million tons. In terms of downstream, the consumption of traditional Baijiu is still light; The downstream of chemical industry has improved. The demand for ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
Future forecast: Some equipment maintenance has been completed, and ethanol supply is expected to slightly rebound; Traditional consumption is still in the off-season, and although there is an expectation of improvement in chemical terminal demand, it is difficult to fully digest the supply increment, and the market supply-demand imbalance is temporarily difficult to reverse. Ethanol analysts predict that the ethanol market may still be weak and mainly consolidating.

This week, the styrene market saw a slight increase, with an average price of 8620 yuan/ton on August 10th and 8650 yuan/ton on August 14th, representing a 0.35% increase during the cycle and a 12.98% year-on-year increase.
Macro: On August 13th, international crude oil futures closed down. The settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $81.25 per barrel, a decrease of $2.02 or 2.4%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October was $87.07 per barrel, a decrease of $1.91 or 2.2%.

On the cost side, the pure benzene market is experiencing strong fluctuations. Due to the impact of typhoons, the unloading of pure benzene cargo has been postponed, inventory at Jiangsu’s main ports continues to decline, and the restart time of some pure benzene facilities has been delayed, resulting in lower than expected production returns. As a result, the focus of pure benzene negotiations has increased. Downstream varieties maintain negative demand feedback, resulting in overall low downstream load. Overall, although the increase in supply is slightly lower than expected, the demand side is still weak, so the rebound space for pure benzene is limited.
Supply and demand side: During the week, styrene plant maintenance and restart coexisted. Due to low profits, the industry operating rate remained at a low level, and downstream 3S demand was in the off-season with limited demand increment. Under the weak supply and demand situation, the styrene market is fluctuating.
Styrene external market: On August 13th, the closing price of styrene in the Asian region rose by $17/ton, and the FOB closing price in South Korea was $1125-1135/ton. The closing price of CFR China is 1110-1120 US dollars per ton.
Market forecast: Currently, the supply and demand drivers in the styrene market are limited, and terminal demand has not yet recovered. Downstream industries have low profits, and it is expected that downstream enterprises will maintain a state of rigid demand procurement and high price resistance. It is expected that the styrene market will follow the fluctuation trend of oil prices in the short term.

1、 This week’s market review: After a deep decline, the market quickly rose, and the price significantly increased
As of August 2, 2026, the benchmark price of propylene recorded 7927.67 yuan/ton, a cumulative increase of over 400 yuan/ton from the stage low of 7511 yuan/ton on July 28, basically recovering the sharp decline lost from July 27-28. From the daily rhythm, propylene has shown a typical “V-shaped” reversal this week:

2、 Moving average system and moving average signal: The downward momentum is depleted, and the rebound signal is confirmed
From the line chart, it can be seen that the 10 day moving average continued to decline after July 27th, while the 20 day moving average (blue line) was relatively flat. The previous moving average was negative and expanded negatively at one point, corresponding to the acceleration stage of the decline on July 27-28.
But with the rapid rebound of prices since the 29th, the slope of the short-term 10 day moving average is expected to gradually flatten or even turn, and the moving average enters a “negative narrowing” channel, indicating the weakening of bearish power and slowing down of the decline; If the subsequent 10 day moving average crosses the 20 day moving average, it will form a clearer upward signal.
3、 Fifth gear position and space judgment: Running near the center position, with limited upper and lower space temporarily
From the position data of the cycle, after the rebound, propylene is mostly in the “middle” position at the 10 day, 60 day, and one-year levels, and at the “middle low” position at the 20 day, 30 day, and 90 day levels. This means:
The price has exited the “low” risk zone on July 28th, but there is still room to approach historical or extreme highs; The combination of “median+mid low” usually corresponds to the characteristics of a volatile market, and the cost-effectiveness of one-sided chasing or killing is not high, which is more in line with the expectation of “high volatility”.
4、 Fundamental driven: resonance between demand repair and cost stabilization
Behind this round of rebound is a dual benefit of macro and industrial fundamentals:
Demand side recovery: With the return of profits, multiple downstream propylene units have been restarted one after another, leading to an increase in essential purchases and a direct boost to propylene prices;
Cost side support: Crude oil has stopped falling and rebounded, solidifying the bottom range of propylene from the raw material side;
5、 Future prospects
Based on the comprehensive average deviation index and the five level position, propylene is likely to maintain a high volatility and slightly stronger operating trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether the 10 day moving average can effectively cross the 20 day moving average to confirm a new round of upward momentum; If the moving average continues to decrease in a negative direction and eventually turns positive, the upward signal will be more solid. In terms of operation, it is recommended to approach the current “median” range with a volatile mindset, closely monitoring the degree of downstream restart realization and fluctuations in the crude oil market.

1、 Price trend

As of July 31st, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane was 6166 yuan/ton. This week, cyclohexane ended its continuous decline since July and entered a weak stable horizontal trend at a low level. The benchmark price was 6166.67 yuan/ton on July 27th, and remained unchanged at 6166.67 yuan/ton on July 31st, a decrease of 13.95% from 7166.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, at the bottom of the price range in the past year, two years, and three years.
2、 Market analysis
Market analysis: Regional prices: Mainstream ex factory prices in Shandong range from 5956-6600 yuan/ton, Shenmu Fuyou prices at 5956 yuan/ton, and high price areas in East China continue to rise and fall around 7800 yuan/ton. Trading characteristics: a shortage of large orders, mainly consisting of rigid demand small orders and bulk retail; Traders and enterprise warehouses are generally above average, with discounts on shipments being common. High end quotations have a price but no market. Related products: cyclohexanone 8800-8900 yuan/ton slightly increased, caprolactam 12147 yuan/ton fluctuated, and adipic acid 8233 yuan/ton slightly decreased. Cyclohexane is a weak link in the chain.
In terms of cost: Pure benzene spot: mainstream price in East China is 6055 yuan/ton (slightly increased by 20 yuan per week), price in North China is 6030 yuan/ton, and price in South China is 6050 yuan/ton; Jiangsu hydrogenated benzene costs 6275 yuan/ton. The utilization rate of pure benzene production capacity is 78.14%, with a weekly output of 435700 tons and an East China port warehouse of 163000 tons (a weekly decrease of 4.12%). The overall supply is loose and the rebound is weak. Crude oil transmission: Brent DTD is weakly fluctuating at about 69.59 US dollars per barrel, while naphtha is slightly adjusted at 581.5 US dollars per ton, without forming a unilateral sharp rise or fall. The hydrogenation process has rigid costs but no upward pressure.
Downstream demand: Main demand (caprolactam/adipic acid/cyclohexanone): Caprolactam capacity utilization rate is 95.72% (high but terminal nylon 6 slice orders are flat), adipic acid production is 64.32% low, cyclohexanone plant production is 70-75% low, textile and nylon products are in the traditional off-season, downstream only maintains basic inventory, and does not release incremental procurement. Solvent and intermediate: coatings, pharmaceutical intermediates, general solvents, due to environmental protection and summer off-season overlap, production is low, and some buyers have switched to substitute products or postponed procurement.
Supply side: Domestic cyclohexane plants have started operating at 62-66% capacity, while Luxi, Hualu Hengsheng, Haili and others have resumed operations after maintenance. Shanxi Lanhua’s 20000 ton by-product plant has been shut down but the total plate capacity has not been changed; The export volume of integrated devices is still high.
3、 Future forecast
Cyclohexane analysts believe that from late August to September: pay attention to the triple signals of stocking of caprolactam/nylon end “Golden Nine”, destocking of pure benzene ports to below 120000 tons, and seasonal strengthening of crude oil. If both are realized, cyclohexane is expected to recover to 6500-6900 yuan/ton, but it is difficult to return to the level of 7000+in early July.