In September 2026, the domestic asphalt market experienced a strong upward trend, with spot prices continuing to rise throughout the month, and the market center of gravity shifting significantly. The futures market also followed suit, and the overall market emerged from the strong trend of the “Golden September” peak season. The rise in asphalt prices this month is not driven by a single factor, but rather by the resonance of multiple positive factors such as strong support from the cost side, continuous contraction from the supply side, and concentrated demand during the peak season. The overall low inventory and low operating pattern of the industry is prominent, and the market sentiment is strong. The overall trading atmosphere of the industry is active, and the strong market characteristics during the year are significant.
The continuous strengthening of the cost side provides core support for the asphalt market. In September, the international crude oil market experienced strong fluctuations, and geopolitical disturbances continued to affect global crude oil supply expectations. International oil prices remained at a high level, driving domestic heavy oil and asphalt raw material prices to rise simultaneously. The rising cost of raw material procurement for domestic refineries has led to a passive increase in asphalt production costs, forcing refineries to raise their spot prices. At the same time, the supply of heavy imported raw materials in China is tight, and the arrival of raw materials in some regions is delayed. The production costs of refineries remain high. Even if there is a slight correction during the trading session, the overall cost support logic remains stable, limiting the downward space of asphalt prices and supporting the continuous rise of spot prices.
The significant contraction of the supply side is the core driving force behind the sharp rise in asphalt prices this month. In September, the overall operating load of domestic asphalt refineries remained at a low level for the year. Many refineries were affected by factors such as raw material shortages and equipment maintenance, resulting in low production enthusiasm. The overall asphalt production in the country fell both year-on-year and month on month. The low opening trend has led to a significant contraction in the supply of spot resources in the market, coupled with the continuous depletion of industry inventories in the early stage. Refinery inventories and social inventories are both at low levels in recent years, highlighting the tight situation of spot resources in the market. Due to the scarcity of resources in some mainstream areas, traders are reluctant to sell and have a strong sentiment of pushing prices high. The tight supply of goods in the market further promotes the continuous upward trend of asphalt spot prices, and the mismatch between supply and demand continues to amplify.
Make efforts during the peak season on the demand side to consolidate the upward foundation of the market. September is the traditional peak season for asphalt consumption, with crisp autumn weather and scarce rainfall in northern regions. Outdoor construction conditions are excellent, and infrastructure projects and road maintenance projects in various regions are starting in a concentrated manner. The release of terminal demand is concentrated, and the procurement pace is significantly accelerating. Although the southern region is relatively cautious in terminal procurement due to the influence of high priced goods, the overall demand for essential goods is steadily recovering, and the role of essential goods in bottoming out is obvious. Overall, the demand for asphalt terminal construction in China is steadily recovering, effectively digesting market stock resources, continuing the destocking pattern, and providing solid fundamental support for the upward trend of asphalt prices.
In September, the trend of asphalt prices broke through the annual fluctuation range strongly, and at the end of the month, the price remained in the highest range of the price system in nearly a year, corresponding to the absolute high of the fifth level in the five level rating. From the perspective of annual price dimension, the current asphalt price is at the extreme position of the cycle, and the momentum of short-term sustained sharp rise is gradually weakening, and the upward space has narrowed. However, the core fundamentals of the current market have not reversed, with tight raw materials, low inventory levels, and continued support from peak season demand. It is difficult for the market to experience a deep correction, and the overall pattern of high-level strong and volatile operation is maintained.

Overall, the significant increase in the asphalt market in September 2026 is the result of the resonance of positive factors in cost, supply, and demand. The mismatch between supply and demand is the core logic of this round of market trends. At present, the market is characterized by high prices, low inventory, and strong support, and the market resilience is sufficient at the end of the peak season. The follow-up market will focus on the recovery of refinery operations, the pace of raw material imports and arrivals, the sustainability of domestic infrastructure construction, and the fluctuation of international crude oil prices. If the supply gradually recovers and the peak season demand gradually ends in the later stage, the high asphalt market may gradually stabilize, and the overall trend is likely to maintain a high volatility.

The price of acetic acid continued to rise in September, with an average market price of 4603 yuan/ton as of September 23, an increase of 35.39% from 3400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
The price of acetic acid has increased significantly within the month. Overall, the price of acetic acid has been driven by multiple factors, including rising costs, tight supply, and downstream demand support, resulting in a significant increase in acetic acid prices. Specifically, let’s take a look:
Upstream cost push up: In the first half of the month, international oil prices rose, driving up the methanol market. Afterwards, methanol prices remained high and fluctuated, causing significant cost pressure on acetic acid companies. The cost side provided strong support for acetic acid, and the market sentiment rose. Acetic acid companies raised their quotes.
Low inventory of enterprises: Although the operating rate of acetic acid has been around 80% since September, the industry performance is relatively high. However, the overall inventory level of enterprises is low, and some devices have reduced their load or stopped for maintenance, resulting in tight spot supply. At the same time, downstream demand has rebounded, and enterprise orders have improved, driving the price focus to continue to shift upward.
Stable demand support: Under the traditional peak demand season, the downstream operating rate of acetic acid is relatively high, which supports the volume of acetic acid procurement. The market trading atmosphere is still acceptable, supporting the high and firm operation of acetic acid prices.
Positive news for exports: Due to the impact of geopolitical conflicts, the production cost of acetic acid remains high, and multiple sets of acetic acid plants overseas have successively reduced or stopped production. As the world’s largest producer of acetic acid, China’s cumulative acetic acid exports from January to August amounted to 936500 tons, an increase of 23.68% compared to the same period last year. The increase in China’s acetic acid export volume supports the tight domestic spot market and drives prices to continue rising.
Market forecast: The short-term acetic acid market is mostly positive, with prices maintaining a high level of consolidation before the holiday.
In the long run, although the upstream methanol market has loosened, prices remain high and cost support still exists; Downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, and purchasing enthusiasm may slow down; On the supply side, with the restoration of maintenance equipment, the supply gradually increases. However, recently, INEOS announced the closure of the only world-class acetyl plant in Europe, including the annual production capacity of 500000 tons of acetic acid plant and downstream acetic acid and ethyl acetate plants in the industrial chain, which will further stimulate the growth of acetic acid exports.
Overall, it is expected that the acetic acid market will fluctuate at a high level in the future, and specific attention should be paid to market supply and downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend
This week, the overall price of caustic soda is running strongly. The average market price at the beginning of the week was around 637 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was around 639 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.31% and a year-on-year decrease of 24.82%. On September 17th, the chlor alkali index was 734 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 65.51% from the cycle’s highest point of 2128 points (2021-10-24), and an increase of 3.82% from the lowest point of 707 points on February 27th, 2026. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
This week, the price of caustic soda has been operating strongly. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 580-700 yuan/ton for 32% ion membrane alkali in the mainstream market. In Zhejiang region, the price of caustic soda is around 830-860 yuan/ton for 32% ion membrane alkali delivered to Xiaoshan mainstream market. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion membrane alkali is around 1850-1950 yuan/ton (converted to 100 yuan).
This week, the 32% liquid alkali market in Shandong region showed inconsistent fluctuations, but the overall trend was strong. The overall load in Shandong is basically controlled at around 80% level. It is estimated that some non aluminum downstream caustic soda will be stocked appropriately before the holiday, and the chlor alkali plant will control inventory before the holiday. The price of alumina is showing a fluctuating trend. Currently, the pace of raw material procurement in alumina plants is normal, and the probability of short-term large-scale production reduction in the market is low. It is expected that the price will continue to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend. Non aluminum downstream demand continues to increase through on-demand procurement.
Analysts believe that in recent times, the price of caustic soda has been operating strongly this week, and downstream domestic alumina suppliers have been purchasing on demand, with non aluminum companies receiving only average orders. Although there will be pre holiday stocking next week, caustic soda manufacturers have maintenance expectations, and the comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda may tend to operate in a consolidated manner, depending on downstream market demand.

This week, the styrene market continued its upward trend, with an average price of 9900 yuan/ton on September 7th and 10610 yuan/ton on September 11th, representing a 7.17% increase during the cycle and a year-on-year increase of 43.49%.
Macro: On September 10th, international crude oil futures surged. The settlement price of the October WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $102.48 per barrel, an increase of $6.43 or 6.7%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in November was $107.63 per barrel, an increase of $6.42 or 6.3%.
Cost wise: The price of pure benzene has risen sharply this week. Geopolitical risks continue to drive up crude oil prices, leading to a decline in port inventories of pure benzene and a continued shortage of subsequent arrivals. In addition, with the expected increase in demand for delivery due to the double festival, the focus of pure benzene negotiations continues to rise.
Supply and demand side: The peak of styrene maintenance has passed, and two sets of facilities in Shandong have restarted, with high operating rates fluctuating. The downstream three S have poor acceptance of high prices, are cautious in chasing high prices, and mainly focus on basic essential needs.
Styrene external market: On September 10th, the closing price of styrene in the Asian region rose by $48/ton, and the FOB closing price in South Korea was $1408-1418/ton. The closing price of CFR China is 1368-1378 US dollars per ton.
Market forecast: The main reason for this round of price increase is the fluctuation of crude oil, strong cost support, and the maintenance of positive exports. It is expected that the market will maintain a strong pattern, and the overall trend will mainly resonate with pure benzene.

The domestic ethanol price has been adjusted to 5516 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.36% in the past three months and a year-on-year decrease of 0.86%. The centralized maintenance of ethanol manufacturers’ facilities has been completed, and some areas have seen an increase in supply, resulting in a continuous oversupply on the supply and demand side.
On the cost side, the average price of corn in China has slightly increased, while regional price trends vary. Corn prices in Northeast China remain stable, while those in Henan have declined. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
From a supply side perspective, the shutdown of an ethanol plant with an annual processing capacity of 4.24 million tons will occur this month. In August, China’s ethanol production was 835000 tons, with a month on month increase of 28700 tons and a decrease of 3.56%. The cumulative production from January to August 2026 was 7.0051 million tons. The impact of ethanol supply is mixed.
On the demand side and downstream side, the overall demand has slightly increased, with a total demand of 172200 tons, an increase of 0.1 million tons compared to the previous period; Domestic consumption was 172000 tons, an increase of 0.1 million tons compared to the previous period; The export volume remained basically unchanged at 0.02 million tons. In terms of downstream, the consumption of traditional Baijiu is still light; The downstream of chemical industry has improved, and the chemical industry mainly relies on contract procurement for essential needs. The demand for ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
In the future market forecast, there will be a concentrated stocking of goods before and after the holiday, resulting in an increase in demand and a rise in prices. At the same time, freight rates will rise, leading to an increase in delivery prices. Analysts predict that the ethanol market may rise.

In August, 85% of the mainstream formic acid market in China showed an overall volatile upward trend of maintaining stability at a low level, rising step by step, and closing steadily at the end of the month. The price bottom rose significantly throughout the month,. At the beginning of the month, the market continued its sideways trend as of the end of July, with prices at a low level for the year, with a benchmark price of 1800 yuan/ton. Relying on multiple factors such as low inventory levels, equipment maintenance, export boosting, and market price support, the market gradually broke through the low range and continued to shift its focus upwards. At the end of the month, the market maintained a stable high level, with a benchmark price of 2100 yuan/ton. The overall trend for the month showed a fluctuating and strengthening pattern, with a 16.7% increase during the month.

The supply-demand pattern dominates the changes in the market situation this month, forming obvious phased game characteristics
The overall supply side shows the characteristics of “offsetting the increase in production and the decrease in maintenance volume, and tightening the supply of goods in stages”. At the beginning of the month, maintenance equipment was planned to resume production one after another, and there was an expectation of increased supply in the market, which continued to suppress prices and was also the core reason for the low price fluctuations at the beginning of the month; In the middle of the month, some devices underwent centralized maintenance to offset the increase in production resumption, and the market supply tightened. Coupled with the active price hikes by enterprises, this provided core support for price increases; At the end of the month, industry inventory slightly increased, supply side pressure slightly eased, and the market tended to stabilize. At the same time, the overall inventory of the industry remained at a medium low level for a long time throughout the month, providing sustained basic support for the spot price of formic acid and effectively limiting the downward space of prices.
The overall trend of weak demand on the demand side and marginal positive boost is a key constraint factor for market fluctuations. This month, the overall production and demand of downstream terminals in China have been weak, and the pace of demand recovery is slow, making it difficult to form a sustained strong upward momentum. This has led to a lack of core support for significant price increases in most periods of the market, and the market has repeatedly entered a weak equilibrium state of sideways movement. However, the phased positive news effectively drove the market upward, and the low prices stimulated downstream to replenish inventory and purchase goods. Coupled with the stable performance of export orders within the month and the expected increase in the traditional demand peak season in September, it effectively boosted market sentiment, drove market transactions to recover, and pushed prices up multiple times.
The peak demand season in September is approaching, and prices are expected to continue rising
As the traditional peak demand season approaches in September, the demand side is expected to continue to recover, coupled with the continued upward trend in the industry, the formic acid market is likely to maintain a stable and strong operating trend, with a low probability of significant fluctuations. Specific attention still needs to be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

This week, the styrene market experienced narrow fluctuations, with an average price of 8970 yuan/ton on August 24th and 9040 yuan/ton on August 28th, representing a 0.78% increase during the period and a year-on-year increase of 19.42%.

Macro: On August 27th, international crude oil futures closed higher. The settlement price of the October WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $83.53 per barrel, an increase of $1.30 or 1.6%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in November was $88.52 per barrel, an increase of $1.58 or 1.8%.
On the cost side, the pure benzene market is experiencing strong fluctuations, with some pure benzene plants being delayed in restarting in August. The return of supply is not as expected, and port inventories remain low. Coupled with the end of month delivery gap filling, pure benzene is expected to be strong at the beginning of the week. Downstream product demand remains weak, dragging down the pure benzene market. In the future, the fundamentals of pure benzene will maintain a near strong and far weak pattern, but the short-term low inventory pattern and geopolitical support will strengthen the trend of pure benzene. However, the rebound space is limited under the expectation of supply return. We will pay attention to the downstream acceptance of high prices and geopolitical changes in the future.
Supply and demand side: Partial maintenance of styrene has been postponed for the week, the supply side has tightened, port inventory has fallen, and supply side support is still acceptable. Downstream 3S profits are low, maintaining essential procurement and limited demand side support.
Styrene external market: On August 28th, the closing price of styrene market in Asia increased, with FOB Korea closing price of 1205-1215 US dollars/ton, up 22 US dollars/ton. CFR China closed at $1175-1185 per ton, up $10 per ton.
Market forecast: The fundamentals of the styrene market have improved, and downstream follow-up is average. It is expected that the short-term market driving force for styrene will be limited, and prices will fluctuate.

The price of ethylene glycol surged in August

The price of ethylene glycol will soar in August 2026. As of August 27th, the average spot market price for domestic oil to ethylene glycol traders was 5628.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.30% from the market average price of 5011.67 yuan/ton on August 1st.
The price of ethylene glycol for port paper cargo is mainly based on basis pricing, and the price closely follows the fluctuations of the futures market. In August 2026, the futures price of ethylene glycol rose significantly, and the base price of ethylene glycol for port paper cargo remained firm. Recently, the market has fallen and the basis has slightly decreased, but the absolute price remains high. As of the 27th, the spot contract for ethylene glycol at the port (starting from 500 tons) has a daily basis price range of+400 to+460 for this week’s spot contract. (Currently, the market basis is still benchmarked against the 09 contract)
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol (loose water, tax included, self pickup) for whole vehicle manufacturers is 5200-5450 yuan/ton. At present, the manufacturer’s quotation is relatively high, and the profits of traders who hoard goods in the early stage can be reduced.
August 2026 ethylene glycol port inventory is extremely low:
On August 27, 2026, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 178000 tons, a decrease of 238000 tons from the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on July 30, which was 416000 tons.
Reasons for the significant increase in ethylene glycol prices in August 2026:
In August 2026, the price of ethylene glycol saw a significant increase, mainly due to the impact of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. The import volume to ports significantly contracted, coupled with centralized maintenance of multiple domestic facilities, resulting in overall supply tightening; The inventory of the main ports in East China has dropped to a low level in recent years, and spot prices are tight. At the same time, the rise in crude oil costs has brought about a risk premium. The market has played a game in advance to meet the demand for stocking polyester gold, silver, and silver, jointly driving up prices significantly..
The recent significant drop in ethylene glycol prices is due to:
Recently, the price of ethylene glycol has fallen sharply, mainly due to signals of easing in the Middle East geopolitical situation. The previous geopolitical risk premium quickly dissipated, and the decline in crude oil weakened cost support; Domestic maintenance facilities are gradually restarting, and the market expects that imported goods will gradually arrive at the port in September, leading to an increase in long-term supply pressure; At the same time, the peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” did not deliver as expected, and high prices suppressed downstream polyester purchasing intentions. Some companies reduced production, and combined with the previous surge, profit taking stocks concentrated and left, driving prices to quickly decline.
Market forecast:
In September, there is a high probability that the overall price of ethylene glycol will fluctuate at a high level and the volatility will increase. The fundamental tone is still tight supply, and the biggest price fluctuation variable is the fluctuation of arrival volume caused by geopolitics.
On the supply side, domestic maintenance facilities are gradually resuming production. If the navigation in the Middle East Strait improves, imports to ports will rebound month on month, and the marginal pressure on supply will increase. However, East China ports are still at historically low inventory levels, and there is still a bottoming out in the spot market;
On the demand side, polyester is facing a traditional golden September and silver October, and production is expected to slightly rebound. However, overall terminal orders are weak, and high prices are suppressing downstream active stocking, mainly for essential purchases, with limited fulfillment during peak seasons;
Geopolitics and crude oil fluctuations will still bring emotional disturbances. If geopolitical tensions rise again, it is easy to rebound. If the supply of goods is concentrated at the port or the peak season is not as expected, there is a risk of further pullback, and the overall situation shows a tight near and loose far pattern.

The domestic ethanol price has dropped to 5521 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.83% in the past three months and a year-on-year decrease of 1.89%. The contradiction between supply and demand in the ethanol market has temporarily eased. According to the current maintenance plan, it is expected that the capacity utilization rate will continue to rise in July. The market is affected by the situation of oversupply, and the ethanol market price will fluctuate and adjust.
On the cost side, there is an expectation of a slight rebound in raw material corn, and corn based ethanol companies continue to suffer losses; The price of cassava jerky remains stable, while cassava ethanol is also deeply mired in losses; South China sugar syrup ethanol follows the consumption of sugar syrup inventory, causing a decline in corporate profitability and weak market prices. The impact of ethanol cost is mixed.

On the supply side, there has been a slight decline in domestic ethanol supply. The weekly ethanol production was 187100 tons, a decrease of 10900 tons compared to the previous period; The import volume remains unchanged at 0.01 million tons; The total supply was 187200 tons, a decrease of 10900 tons from the previous period, indicating a downward trend in supply. The supply of ethanol is affected by favorable factors.
On the demand side and downstream side, the overall demand has slightly increased, with a total demand of 172200 tons, an increase of 0.1 million tons compared to the previous period; Domestic consumption was 172000 tons, an increase of 0.1 million tons compared to the previous period; The export volume remained basically unchanged at 0.02 million tons. In terms of downstream, the consumption of traditional Baijiu is still light; The downstream of chemical industry has improved. The demand for ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
Future forecast: Some equipment maintenance has been completed, and ethanol supply is expected to slightly rebound; Traditional consumption is still in the off-season, and although there is an expectation of improvement in chemical terminal demand, it is difficult to fully digest the supply increment, and the market supply-demand imbalance is temporarily difficult to reverse. Ethanol analysts predict that the ethanol market may still be weak and mainly consolidating.

This week, the styrene market saw a slight increase, with an average price of 8620 yuan/ton on August 10th and 8650 yuan/ton on August 14th, representing a 0.35% increase during the cycle and a 12.98% year-on-year increase.
Macro: On August 13th, international crude oil futures closed down. The settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $81.25 per barrel, a decrease of $2.02 or 2.4%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October was $87.07 per barrel, a decrease of $1.91 or 2.2%.

On the cost side, the pure benzene market is experiencing strong fluctuations. Due to the impact of typhoons, the unloading of pure benzene cargo has been postponed, inventory at Jiangsu’s main ports continues to decline, and the restart time of some pure benzene facilities has been delayed, resulting in lower than expected production returns. As a result, the focus of pure benzene negotiations has increased. Downstream varieties maintain negative demand feedback, resulting in overall low downstream load. Overall, although the increase in supply is slightly lower than expected, the demand side is still weak, so the rebound space for pure benzene is limited.
Supply and demand side: During the week, styrene plant maintenance and restart coexisted. Due to low profits, the industry operating rate remained at a low level, and downstream 3S demand was in the off-season with limited demand increment. Under the weak supply and demand situation, the styrene market is fluctuating.
Styrene external market: On August 13th, the closing price of styrene in the Asian region rose by $17/ton, and the FOB closing price in South Korea was $1125-1135/ton. The closing price of CFR China is 1110-1120 US dollars per ton.
Market forecast: Currently, the supply and demand drivers in the styrene market are limited, and terminal demand has not yet recovered. Downstream industries have low profits, and it is expected that downstream enterprises will maintain a state of rigid demand procurement and high price resistance. It is expected that the styrene market will follow the fluctuation trend of oil prices in the short term.