1、 Market Review

Recently, the PA66 market has shown a fluctuating and weakening trend, continuing the downward trend since late April. According to data from Shengyi Society, the benchmark price on May 14th was 22666.67 yuan/ton, which dropped to 21833.33 yuan/ton on May 21st, a decrease of about 7.09% from the beginning of the month. Overall, market prices are in the mid to high range of the year, with a significant decline from the high point of the year. The focus of spot quotations continues to shift slightly downwards, and market trading is generally light.
2、 Cause analysis
On the cost side, adipic acid increased by over 50% in the first quarter, but entered a narrow adjustment range after April, with some periods falling by about 2000 yuan/ton. The overall cost support margin weakened, but the energy premium in the early stage still exists, and the short-term cost center is difficult to move downwards, which still has a certain bottoming effect on the price. At the beginning of the year, the price of hexamethylenediamine rose sharply from 16300 yuan/ton in East China to around 28000 yuan/ton, but the recent upward trend has slowed down significantly. It is worth noting that on May 20th, the 30000 tons/year caprolactam to hexamethylenediamine project under Yongrong Holdings Group was fully put into operation, adding domestic supply of hexamethylenediamine and reducing the cost of PA66 raw materials, which to some extent alleviated the bottleneck of raw material supply.
On the supply side, the domestic production of PA66 remains relatively stable. Enterprises generally maintain low load operation, and some aggregation enterprises still have the intention to raise prices and reduce production due to cost pressures. The overall supply of spot goods is still acceptable, but it is not a loose surplus pattern. The supply of imported goods is relatively tight, and prices are also at a high level.
On the demand side, downstream purchasing intentions remain weak, and the overall transaction atmosphere is flat. Downstream companies generally adopt a strategy of “small orders are just needed, and purchases are made as needed”, with few large orders and cautious follow-up on high priced orders. End customers have a clear resistance to high priced goods, resulting in light trading volume.
3、 Future forecast
Overall, it is expected that the PA66 market will mainly experience high-level fluctuations and narrow range consolidation in the short term. The price center of PA66 may still have a slight downward trend, but the decline is expected to be limited. The market is likely to continue to operate in a weak and stagnant pattern.

As of May 19th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 16166.67 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month, and market trading remained stable. From the supply side, the industry’s production remains stable, with tight spot circulation on the market and strong support from the source of goods; Downstream demand for essential goods remains stable, but the pace of follow-up has slowed down. Market competition is heating up at high prices, and industry players are becoming more cautious.
Overall, hydrofluoric acid is currently in a stage of high-level stagnation, with multiple cycles of excessive price increases accumulating a certain risk of correction. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and more attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices and market supply and demand.

This week (5.11-15), the domestic liquid ammonia market continued its weak supply and demand pattern, with prices accelerating downward. The quotations in the main production areas have generally been lowered, and the market performance has been sluggish. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand and observation. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 15th, the mainstream ex factory price in Shandong was 2150-2350 yuan/ton, and the weekly decline of liquid ammonia was 16.69%.

Supply side: Limited impact of maintenance capacity, loose supply performance
This week, the operating rate of liquid ammonia remained at a high level, and the domestic ammonia release only increased without decreasing, with an operating rate of nearly 90%. On the one hand, there are few maintenance devices, and some devices are delayed in entering maintenance. On the other hand, many devices have entered the resumption period. The market supply performance is abundant, and enterprise inventory is accumulating at a high level. Under pressure, large factories have repeatedly lowered prices. Manufacturers in Shandong region have generally lowered prices 3-4 times this week, with price adjustments ranging from 200 to 400 yuan.
Demand side: Poor demand from both workers and farmers, sluggish exports
The peak season for spring plowing in the north has basically come to an end, while the demand for fertilizers in the south is mainly based on demand, and agricultural demand has entered the off-season. The operating rate of phosphate fertilizer has dropped below 50%, and the price of ammonia has lost support. Downstream products such as urea have all experienced varying degrees of decline, with a weekly drop of 2.28% for urea. There is no bright spot in industrial demand, and downstream production of caprolactam and acrylonitrile has not increased. Downstream purchases are mostly made on demand, and there is no growth point in demand.
In addition, in terms of exports, orders are flat, international ammonia prices are declining, and the price difference with domestic ammonia prices is further narrowing, resulting in a reduction in export order profits. This will have a certain impact on the domestic ammonia market.
Future prospects
According to the liquid ammonia analyst from Shengyi Society, the domestic ammonia market may maintain a sluggish trend in the short term. Considering the current large amount of ammonia in the market and high inventory, it cannot be ruled out that companies still have some room for price reduction. However, caution should be exercised as planned maintenance of facilities in the northwest and other regions in the middle to late part of the year is expected to alleviate supply pressure. In addition, the downstream phosphate fertilizer production rate is expected to increase, and the ammonia market may gradually stop falling in the future, with the possibility of a recovery market in the latter half of the year.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has declined this month. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 70200 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was 39000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44.44% and an increase of 75.68% compared to the same period last year. On April 29th, the Business Society Bromine Index was 136.84, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 44.45% from the highest point of 246.32 points (2026-04-07) during the cycle, and an increase of 132.25% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
This month’s market trend: Bromine prices are weak and continue to decline. The price of bromine in the Shandong market has fallen and then stabilized, with reference to manufacturer prices ranging from 35000 to 42000 yuan/ton. The manufacturer’s quotation has also declined and stabilized. The domestic bromine industry has steadily resumed production, social inventory is gradually replenished, and bromine prices have continued to decline to a low level before stabilizing temporarily. On the demand side: Downstream enterprises have average purchasing enthusiasm and a moderate pace of transactions, often continuing with essential procurement.
In terms of raw materials, the domestic sulfur price first fell and then rose this month, with an overall upward trend. The market average price at the beginning of the month was 6260 yuan/ton, and the market average price at the end of the month was 6316.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.91% and a year-on-year increase of 178.14%. Downstream purchases should be made as needed.
Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain weak in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to rise. The gradual recovery of bromine supply in the near future is due to downstream demand driven procurement, which has led to resistance to bromine price increases. Changes in the overseas geopolitical situation have attracted much attention, and the comprehensive supply-demand game is expected to lead to a consolidation of bromine prices in the later stage, depending on the overseas situation and downstream market demand.

In the second half of April, as the Middle East ceasefire negotiations progressed and international oil prices fell, butadiene prices continued to decline, and the cost support for butadiene rubber collapsed. As of April 29th, the mainstream price of BR9000 in East China has fallen to 16180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.36% from 16790 yuan/ton on the 15th. The futures market weakened synchronously, with the main contract falling below 15500 yuan/ton during the cycle.

In the second half of April, the expectation of butadiene supply recovery increased, port inventory accumulated, and prices continued to fall, with a weekly decline of over 8%. The production cost of butadiene rubber has decreased accordingly, and the support for prices continues to weaken. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 29th, the price of butadiene was 12566 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.11% from 16133 yuan/ton on the 15th
Due to severe losses in the early stage, the domestic butadiene rubber plant maintained low load operation, and the industry operating rate in April was around 4.5%, significantly lower than the same period last year. The enterprise continues its destocking status, and the decline in Shunding rubber is limited.
The downstream tire production is basically stable, and all steel tire enterprises are gradually undergoing maintenance and production restrictions, resulting in limited room for overall capacity utilization improvement. Maintain rigid support for butadiene rubber. In addition to the US Iran negotiations, crude oil prices have fallen from their high levels at the beginning of the conflict, and the geopolitical premium has partially subsided, leading to a cooling of market risk aversion. The market mentality has shifted towards caution.
In the future, the price of raw material butadiene will fall from a high level, and there will be insufficient cost support; Low production on the supply side is difficult to change in the short term; The demand side urgently needs support, and in the short term, there is limited room for the movement of butadiene rubber. In addition, changes in the situation in the Middle East will still have an impact on the butadiene rubber industry chain through crude oil. If the US Iran conflict escalates after the holiday and crude oil prices rise sharply again, supported by costs, the butadiene rubber market in May will stop falling and rebound again.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 24th, the domestic ethanol price has fallen to 5930 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.27% during the cycle, a month on month drop of 0.67%, and a year-on-year increase of 12.52%. The domestic ethanol price is weak and declining, and factories have a strong willingness to ship, with a clear phenomenon of actively grabbing orders. Affected by the increase in freight rates, some factories have given up profits to the logistics sector. Downstream chemical companies only maintain essential procurement, resulting in a decrease in delivery prices.

On the cost side, the price of raw material corn first weakened and then strengthened. With the rise of temperature, grassroots farmers and traders have increased their enthusiasm for selling grain, leading to an increase in market supply. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
From the supply side, the main factories in Hebei and Henan regions are operating normally; The operating load of cassava ethanol factories in East China is not high. In terms of coal to ethanol production, the Yushen unit has a low load, while the Hunan and Hubei units continue to shut down, while production in other areas is normal. The supply of ethanol is affected by favorable factors.
On the demand side, downstream chemical production of ethyl acetate: overall production of ethyl acetate is 51.57%. There has been a recent replenishment situation, and other downstream chemical companies urgently need to replenish their inventory. Downstream Baijiu just needs to be purchased and will enter the off-season. The impact of ethanol demand is mixed.
According to future predictions, as corn inventories gradually decrease, there is a possibility of corn prices rising in the later stage, which will provide support for the cost side of ethanol. The ethanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the ethanol market will mainly be consolidated.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the styrene market has been weak and volatile this week. The average price at the beginning of the week was 10140 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 10120 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.2% during the week.

Macro: On April 16th, international crude oil futures closed higher. The settlement price of the May WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $94.69 per barrel, an increase of $3.40 or 3.7%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in June was $99.39 per barrel, an increase of $4.46 or 4.7%.
On the cost side, the price range of pure benzene fluctuated within the week. In the short term, there are expectations of a reduction in both domestic and imported petroleum benzene, especially with a continued decrease in imported sources. The domestic supply and demand pattern of pure benzene tends to be strong, which will provide significant support for the price of hydrogenated benzene in the later stage. The market may continue to fluctuate strongly.
Supply and demand side: There were not many domestic device maintenance in April, and some maintenance devices were restarted and delayed, resulting in overall stable supply. Due to the significant increase in raw material prices and strong resistance to high prices downstream, the PS/ABS industry continues to suffer from cash flow losses, resulting in a decrease in load. The increase in export transactions and demand has led to a tight supply of styrene domestically.
Styrene external market: On April 16th, the trading atmosphere in the Asian styrene USD market was relatively flat, with FOB Korea closing at 1350-1370 USD/ton and a stable average price; CFR China received $1310-1330 per ton, a decrease of $5 per ton.
Market forecast: In the short term, geopolitical risks are still fluctuating, and the price trend of styrene is returning to fundamentals. The market lacks the driving force to continue rising, and the styrene market is in a dilemma under high cost and low demand.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 10th, the reference average price of urea market in Shandong Province, China was 1872 yuan/ton, which is 0.40% higher than the reference average price of 1865 yuan/ton on April 1st.
2、 Market analysis
market situation
The domestic urea market price fluctuated slightly in early April. As of April 10th, the urea market prices in Shandong are around 1840-1900 yuan/ton, Hebei is around 1830-1870 yuan/ton, Henan is around 1810-1880 yuan/ton, Hubei is around 1860-1890 yuan/ton, and Liaoning is around 1850-1900 yuan/ton.
Supply and demand situation
In terms of supply, this week’s urea market supply, combined with an operating rate of around 90%. In terms of demand, the peak season for spring plowing is coming to an end, and market demand is decreasing. Downstream essential procurement is the main focus, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has increased, resulting in an increased demand for urea procurement.
3、 Future forecast
Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the urea market trend has been stabilizing recently. The international urea market has surged, while the domestic urea market has not experienced significant fluctuations, with a noticeable price difference. Under the policy of ensuring the price and supply of fertilizers in China, it is expected that the short-term domestic urea market will experience narrow fluctuations and rising prices.

1、 Price trend

In March, the market price of cyclohexanone in Shandong region showed a trend of “first rapid rise, then high-level consolidation”. In the first ten days, the market was rapidly boosted by multiple favorable factors. In the middle of the month, the market was affected by macro and supply and demand changes, and prices maintained a high level after a slight correction, with a cumulative increase of 31.03% for the whole month.
2、 Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
Cost side: Strong support formed by resonance between raw materials and geopolitical disturbances
The core raw material of cyclohexanone is pure benzene, which accounts for a relatively high proportion of the cost. Therefore, the trend of raw material prices directly affects the production cost of cyclohexanone. In early March, the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East led to a significant increase in international crude oil prices, which in turn drove up the price of pure benzene and significantly increased the production cost of cyclohexanone. Enterprises have sufficient motivation to keep up with the price increase, forming strong cost support.
In the middle of the month, with the temporary easing of the geopolitical situation, crude oil prices rebounded, pure benzene prices also fell, and the marginal cost support weakened, creating conditions for a slight correction in cyclohexanone prices.
Supply and demand pattern: from tight to loose, supporting sustained dynamic variables
Firstly, let’s take a look at the supply side. After reducing maintenance and resuming production, the pattern will gradually tighten and then loosen. In early March, some mainstream devices entered the planned maintenance phase, coupled with some enterprises’ negative load reduction operations in the early stage, the effective supply in the market will shrink, and spot inventory will remain low, forming a temporary tight balance and directly driving up prices rapidly.
In the later stage, with the restart of maintenance equipment, the market supply steadily rebounded, and the tight supply situation in the early stage gradually eased, weakening the support of the supply side for prices.
On the demand side, as spring arrives, downstream chemical fiber and coating industries such as cyclohexanone, adipic acid, and nylon 66 enter the traditional peak season. Coupled with the release of demand for low-priced raw materials in the early stage, there is a significant increase in first-time purchases, which provides some support for prices. However, with prices rapidly rising to around 10000 yuan, downstream enterprises face a sharp increase in cost pressure, and their purchasing intentions quickly cool down. In the middle of the month, on-demand small order purchases are the main focus, and there is insufficient supply of high priced goods, which is an important reason for the temporary rise in prices and subsequent decline.
3、 Future forecast
Analysis from the perspectives of supply, demand, and cost
From the supply side, the cyclohexanone maintenance unit has basically resumed production, and the market supply will steadily rebound. The supply pressure continues to increase, and the support for prices will further weaken. Although downstream demand has increased due to the impact of peak season, the overall demand for essential purchases is difficult to sustain, and there is insufficient supply of high priced goods, which will constrain demand. In terms of cost, if crude oil and pure benzene prices remain high, they will still provide some cost support for cyclohexanone prices.
Analyze from a technical perspective
From the spot market analysis system of Business Society, it can be seen that in early March, the 10 day moving average of cyclohexanone crossed the 20 day moving average, and the short-term (10 day) moving averages were all higher than the long-term (20 day) moving averages. Starting from early March, the overall cyclohexanone market trend showed an upward trend. At the end of March, the 10 day moving average of cyclohexanone crossed the 20 day moving average, indicating a high probability of a downward trend in the spot market price of cyclohexanone during the forecast period. According to auxiliary indicators, the price of cyclohexanone is expected to be at a medium low level on the 10th and 20th of the 5th, indicating a limited decline in the future price of cyclohexanone. Special attention should be paid to fluctuations in crude oil prices, equipment operation, and changes in downstream orders.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 1 to 31, 2026, the domestic toluene market price increased from 5400 yuan/ton to 8067.67 yuan/ton, with a cumulative price increase of 49.4% during the period. After a sharp rise at the beginning of the month, the price rebounded and overall fluctuated upwards, closing significantly higher.

In March 2026, the domestic toluene market showed a strong operating trend of “first rising, then falling, and steadily rising”, with prices rising sharply and fluctuating significantly. The core driving force came from the strong rise of crude oil on the cost side and the continuous tightening of the supply side. At the same time, the weak downstream demand pattern formed a certain constraint on the market. Under the joint action of multiple factors, the market achieved a significant increase in March.
Cost aspect:
The overall trend of the international crude oil market in March was strong, becoming the core cost driving force supporting the upward trend of toluene prices. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to be tense, with significant disruptions to regional supply chain circulation. The tight global crude oil supply situation has yet to ease, and international oil prices have continued to rise and maintain a high operating trend. The significant increase in upstream crude oil prices has driven the simultaneous strengthening of naphtha related raw materials, further raising the production and processing costs of toluene. The periodic fluctuations in the crude oil market were also transmitted to the toluene market, causing a short-term pullback after the toluene market surged at the beginning of the month. At the end of the month, as crude oil strengthened again, it returned to an upward trend, and the overall cost support continued throughout the month.
Supply side:
The overall tightening of domestic toluene supply pattern in March provided stable support for market prices. Due to the pressure of raw material costs and equipment maintenance arrangements, many domestic main production enterprises have voluntarily reduced their production load, and some equipment has been temporarily shut down for maintenance, directly leading to a reduction in the production of toluene self-produced goods on site. At the same time, the pace of supplementing external imported goods has slowed down, coupled with restrictions on international shipping and trade circulation, resulting in a significant decrease in the amount of imported goods arriving at the port, and the overall domestic spot circulation resources have become increasingly tight. Market holding merchants generally have a strong mentality of being reluctant to sell and raising prices, and the tight circulation of spot goods has further contributed to the steady rise in toluene prices this month.
Demand side:
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 1st to 30th, the domestic PX market price showed a strong upward trend followed by a slight downward trend. As of March 31st, the executed price in the four major regions of East China, North China, Central China, and South China was 9700 yuan/ton, a significant increase from the price of 7600 yuan/ton on March 1st. The main units of Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical operated stably, and the product sales situation was normal.
In terms of international markets, from March 1st to 30th, the prices of para xylene (PX) in the Asian region fluctuated upwards, with a closing price range of 902-1252 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 924-1277 US dollars/ton CFR China for the whole month. As of March 30th, the closing prices of the Asian PX market were 1250-1252 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 1275-1277 US dollars/ton CFR China, with a significant increase in prices compared to March 1st, and the overall fluctuation range was quite obvious.

The overall demand for toluene downstream is weak, which significantly constrains the high priced raw materials. The core downstream PX industry has entered a centralized maintenance cycle this month, with multiple main units reducing their operating loads or suspending operations, significantly reducing the raw material procurement and consumption of toluene. The recovery pace of downstream polyester and textile terminal market demand is relatively slow, and the overall profitability of the industry is under pressure. Enterprises have strong resistance to high-level raw material procurement, and daily procurement only maintains the level of essential needs, with insufficient willingness to actively replenish. Downstream oil blending and solvent industries are also suppressed by high prices, with weak demand follow-up. The overall demand has failed to keep up with the pace of price increases, which to some extent constrains the upward space of the toluene market.
Market forecast:
Taking into account the fundamental factors of cost, supply, and demand in March, it is highly likely that the toluene market will maintain a high volatility pattern in the future. At the cost level, the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are difficult to completely ease in the short term, and international crude oil will continue to maintain high levels. The cost support foundation for toluene is still solid. The impact of maintenance on domestic production facilities on the supply side has not completely subsided, and the replenishment of imported goods is still relatively limited. The tight supply situation on site may continue. The resumption pace of downstream equipment on the demand side is relatively slow, and it will take time for terminal consumption to recover. The acceptance of high priced raw materials is still limited, which will continue to suppress the upward trend of the market. Overall, in the future, toluene will operate in a game of strong costs, tight supply, and weak demand, and the market is unlikely to experience significant fluctuations. The overall trend will be dominated by small fluctuations at high levels.