The domestic ethanol price has been adjusted to 5516 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.36% in the past three months and a year-on-year decrease of 0.86%. The centralized maintenance of ethanol manufacturers’ facilities has been completed, and some areas have seen an increase in supply, resulting in a continuous oversupply on the supply and demand side.
On the cost side, the average price of corn in China has slightly increased, while regional price trends vary. Corn prices in Northeast China remain stable, while those in Henan have declined. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
From a supply side perspective, the shutdown of an ethanol plant with an annual processing capacity of 4.24 million tons will occur this month. In August, China’s ethanol production was 835000 tons, with a month on month increase of 28700 tons and a decrease of 3.56%. The cumulative production from January to August 2026 was 7.0051 million tons. The impact of ethanol supply is mixed.
On the demand side and downstream side, the overall demand has slightly increased, with a total demand of 172200 tons, an increase of 0.1 million tons compared to the previous period; Domestic consumption was 172000 tons, an increase of 0.1 million tons compared to the previous period; The export volume remained basically unchanged at 0.02 million tons. In terms of downstream, the consumption of traditional Baijiu is still light; The downstream of chemical industry has improved, and the chemical industry mainly relies on contract procurement for essential needs. The demand for ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
In the future market forecast, there will be a concentrated stocking of goods before and after the holiday, resulting in an increase in demand and a rise in prices. At the same time, freight rates will rise, leading to an increase in delivery prices. Analysts predict that the ethanol market may rise.