Commodity index: the polyacrylamide commodity index on December 31 was 105.96, the same as yesterday, down 4.98% from the highest point of 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 27.83% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Data monitoring shows that in December, the market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China continued to decline. The mainstream price on the 1st was about 17987.5 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price on the 31st was about 17342.86 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 3.58%. The supply of goods is brisk this month, but the market demand is general.

On the macro level, the expected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories last week boosted oil prices, and tight supply formed a strong support for the oil market. Recently, international crude oil rose strongly. As of December 28, the settlement price of the main contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures was reported at $75.98/barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was reported at $78.67/barrel.

As shown in the figure above, according to the price monitoring of the trading society, 78 commodities rose month on month in December 2021, mainly in the chemical sector (35 in total) and the non-ferrous sector (13 in total), and the commodities with an increase of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical sector; The top three commodities were chloroform (41.13%), lithium carbonate (37.11%) and dichloromethane (36.91%). A total of 141 commodities decreased month on month, mainly in chemical industry (62 in total) and rubber and plastics (19 in total), and commodities with a decrease of more than 5% were mainly concentrated in the chemical sector; The commodities with the top three declines were melamine (- 40.08%), liquefied natural gas (- 30.46%) and baking soda (- 29.05%). The average rise and fall this month was – 1.69%.

Industrial chain: the price of raw material acrylonitrile continued to fluctuate and decrease this month, and the range gradually expanded. In particular, it decreased for 4 consecutive days in the last week, with a total monthly decrease of 2000 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream quotation in the domestic market has fallen from 15400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to about 13400 yuan / ton.

As shown in the figure above, the market price of raw acrylic acid fell sharply this month. On the 1st, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 17000 yuan / ton, and on the 31st, the average market price was 13200 yuan / ton, down 22.35%. After the acrylic acid market fell sharply, the prices of some enterprises rose slightly. At the beginning of the month, the price of raw propylene was lowered, the cost support was weakened, the inventory of production plants was low, the downstream was mainly purchased on demand, and the market was weak and stable. With the price of raw propylene rising first and then falling, the supply of acrylic acid is sufficient, coupled with the weak follow-up of downstream demand, the market inquiry and transaction are depressed, and the price has fallen sharply. In the second half of the month, the market negotiation gradually bottomed out, the overseas mainstream units were force majeure, the export inquiry turned better, the prices of some enterprises increased, the raw propylene market was consolidated and operated, the cost support was limited, the downstream procurement was mainly on demand, and the market inquiry and transaction performance were general. The analysis shows that at present, the price of raw material propylene is mainly stable, with little impact on the cost, and the downstream goods are mainly prepared on demand. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be consolidated and operated stably in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

LNG is used in the production process. In the fourth quarter, domestic LNG prices rose first and then fell, and the peak season was not prosperous. In October, the demand for urban fuel increased, the price of raw materials increased, the overhaul of liquid plants, the tightening of market supply and other multiple positive superposition, which boosted the increase of liquid price by nearly 30% and shifted the focus upward. Early November is the highest point of the year, and then the downlink channel is opened. The downward trend did not stop in December, and Xinjiang fell to around 2000 yuan. Near the end of the month, the temperature has dropped sharply recently, the market trading atmosphere has improved, and the inventory pressure of liquid plants has been reduced. With the shutdown of some liquid plants and the consideration of cost, the domestic liquid price has continued to rise.

As for the future, the market of raw material acrylonitrile decreased significantly and the decline increased, the price of acrylic acid increased weakly, and the support of cost market was seriously unstable; At present, some enterprises in the main domestic production areas have stopped work before the Spring Festival, with sufficient supply in the market and general downstream demand. It is predicted that the trend of polyacrylamide will be stable and weak in the future. If the raw material price continues to decline frequently and sharply, it is likely that the polyacrylamide market will decline sharply.