Commodity index: on July 30, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 87.86, unchanged from yesterday, down 17.99% from the highest point 107.13 in the cycle (2019-05-08), and up 6.00% from the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020（ Note: period refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

According to the data of business society, in July, the trend of domestic polyacrylamide stabilized first and then fluctuated slightly. In the first and middle of July, the price of polyacrylamide was mainly stable. In the last ten days, Gongyi, Henan, the main production area, experienced a severe rainstorm. The local water treatment enterprises stopped production for about a week and finally restarted production after the power was restored. However, it will take some time for the road to recover and the logistics transportation is blocked. The current inventory situation is different. Some raw materials are slightly tight and the price has an upward trend. Some trading enterprises have high inventory and small price reduction for shipment. From the data, the mainstream price on the 1st of this month, that is, the monthly highest price, is 14460 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price on the 30th is the lowest price of this month, 14380 yuan / ton, with a monthly drop of 0.55%, and the price fluctuation range is very small.

The manager of Henan Kaijie water treatment Co., Ltd. understands that the price of some products in the upstream of Henan Kaijie water treatment Co., Ltd. has been stable since the rainstorm. In terms of logistics, it is difficult to find cars now. Moreover, some sections are inconvenient to pass. ” Referring to the future, manager Wang said that due to the recent continuous increase in the price of acrylic acid, the subsequent price of polyacrylamide may rise, and the prices of brown corundum and ferrous sulfate also show some signs of rising.

Acrylic acid is one of the raw materials used in the production of anionic and non-ionic polyacrylamide. According to the data monitoring of business society, the market price of acrylic acid has continued to rise slightly since the 20th: the mainstream quotation on the 20th was 12150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation on the 28th was 13750 yuan / ton, an increase of about 13%. As shown in the figure:

As the main raw material of polyacrylamide, acrylonitrile, the domestic mainstream market price increased slightly this month. After the increase of 50 yuan / ton in the middle of the month, the mainstream market price was about 14750 yuan / ton until the end of the month. Recently, despite the frequent occurrence of extreme weather, the domestic acrylonitrile production capacity has not been significantly affected. The delayed shipping schedule will arrive in Hong Kong at the end of this month or early next month. With the production plan of Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II next month, the overall supply of acrylonitrile is increasing. Limited by the downstream demand with limited growth, the future acrylonitrile market is generally weak.

Secondly, liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. In July, the domestic LNG market continued to rise in the off-season, with an increase of about 30% in the month, almost doubling the level in the same period last year, which was eye-catching in the off-season of traditional consumption. The sharp rise of liquid price this month is mainly due to the rise of cost, the reduction of market supply, the increase of demand in high temperature weather, the continuous rise of air intake, and the superposition of multiple positive factors, which supports the sharp rise of domestic LNG price. The liquid price in various places rises by more than 1000 yuan within the month, and the center of gravity moves up sharply. Now the liquid price in various parts of China has risen to more than 4500 yuan / ton, and Shandong, Henan, Xinjiang and other places have broken through the 5000 mark, with the sword finger reaching 6000. Recently, there have been heavy rainstorms in many places, affecting the logistics in some areas, the market supply continues to decrease, the manufacturer’s inventory is not under pressure, and the psychology of pushing up the price is still. According to the current situation, the domestic LNG market is easy to rise but difficult to fall. At present, 4680-4900 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 4750-5050 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 4850-4950 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 4780-4880 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 5000-5210 yuan / ton in Henan, 4950-5200 yuan / ton in Hebei and 4600-5000 yuan / ton in Sichuan. The price of inlet gas is about 4500-5700 yuan / ton. The domestic liquid price and imported gas are increased to varying degrees.

Downstream demand: at the beginning of the third quarter, the downstream demand did not improve significantly. The production in the main production areas was affected to a certain extent due to the rainstorm, and the inventory of some enterprises was consumed; Although the production is suspended for about a week, due to road damage, short-term repair is difficult, logistics and transportation are limited, raw material procurement and finished product delivery are affected, and the demand and consumption rate of polyacrylamide will slow down.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of the business society, since the third quarter, the production has been interrupted for a short time due to the rainstorm, the transportation has been blocked, the prices of some raw materials have risen, and the production cost may rise. For enterprises with small inventory, production pressure increases; For enterprises with high inventory, there is still room for price reduction and shipment. The downstream demand has not improved much this month. The small change in price comes from the high and low inventory of products and raw materials, and the market is stable and weak. In the future, considering the strong impact of the above factors and the future trend of LNG, the polyacrylamide market may fluctuate to some extent, the ex factory prices of some manufacturers may rise slightly, and the trading enterprises with high inventory will have a larger price range.