Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency: after the festival, the domestic cobalt price is rising, and the cobalt market is soaring, but the cobalt price is falling after hitting the 400000 yuan / ton mark. On February 26, the cobalt price was 397166.66 yuan / ton, down 1.41% from 402833.34 yuan / ton on February 25. Is cobalt price rising blocked or ready to rise?

One day nonferrous plate market fell

It can be seen from the one-day rise and fall list of nonferrous plate that in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on February 26, 2021, there are 8 kinds of commodities in nonferrous plate that have increased month on month, and 9 kinds of commodities that have decreased month on month. In addition to rare earth products and magnesium, the main metal products have declined to varying degrees. Cobalt was dragged down by the decline of nonferrous plate, and cobalt price fell slightly. The macro-economic fundamentals are still relatively good, and the support for the rise of cobalt Market in the future remains.

Mobile phone sales are hard to stop

It can be seen from the data released by China Academy of information technology that in January 2021, the total shipment of domestic mobile phone market was 40.12 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 92.8%. The domestic 5g mobile phone shipment was 27.278 million units, accounting for 68.0% of the mobile phone shipment in the same period. In January, the domestic mobile phone shipment rose sharply, second only to that in April at the beginning of the resumption of work, indicating that the mobile phone market recovered significantly; in January, the 5g mobile phone shipment set a record, and the 5g mobile phone shipment accounted for more than 60% for eight consecutive months and more than 68% for three consecutive months, and the 5g mobile phone replacement trend was unstoppable. Stimulated by the recovery of mobile phone market and the tide of replacement, the future mobile phone shipment is expected to rise sharply, the demand of cobalt market is expected to rise, the rising power of cobalt market is increased, and the rising power of cobalt price is sufficient.

Investment and financing of new energy vehicles

It can be seen from the list of new energy vehicle investment and financing events from January to February that as of February 23, 13 investment and financing events have occurred in the field of new energy vehicles in China since 2021, including BYD, Evergrande, Zero run, hechuang, Faraday future and other well-known brands. In recent years, the field of new energy vehicles is very popular with capital, and investment and financing continue to be hot. In 2020, the amount of financing disclosed in the investment and financing events is nearly 129.21 billion yuan, realizing the record of breaking through 100 billion yuan in the field of new energy vehicles for the first time. The hot investment market continues to push up the market expectation of new energy vehicles in the future. According to the data released by China Automobile Association, in January, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 194000 and 179000 respectively, and the sales of new energy vehicles in a single month has set a new record for seven consecutive months. In 2021, the new energy vehicle industry will continue to show a good performance of overall growth. New energy vehicles stimulate the continuous growth of demand in the cobalt market, with sufficient momentum for the future rise of cobalt Market and limited resistance to the rise of cobalt price.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of business news agency, believes that the short-term sharp rise of cobalt price after the festival, despite the strong support of demand, will inevitably produce water. On February 26, when the nonferrous plate generally fell, a small decline of cobalt price will follow the trend. In terms of future trend, in 2021, China’s 5g investment will continue to grow, and 5g network will be more perfect. In 2021, the four major telecom operators will continue to increase 5g network investment, which is expected to be 1.5 to 2 times of that in 2020. At the same time, the price of 5g mobile phone has been greatly reduced, and the above factors will drive 5g consumption blowout. The blowout of 5g mobile phone consumption and the continuous development of new energy vehicles have raised the demand expectation of cobalt market. The demand of cobalt market rises, and the driving force of cobalt price increases. There is a huge space for cobalt price to rise in the future. Cobalt price is expected to rise in the future, and it is still ready to rise after a short decline.