1、 Price trend

This week, the domestic market of cyclohexanone was stable. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone at the beginning and the end of the week was 7383 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the same period last month, down 17.96% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: after the Spring Festival, the market of cyclohexanone is basically closed, with few transactions. In the week, Sinopec’s listing of pure benzene twice reduced 450 yuan / ton to 5500 yuan / ton. The cost support was insufficient. However, due to the impact of national traffic and road logistics and transportation, most of the terminal plants were delayed to return to work, the starting load of downstream caprolactam was reduced, the demand for cyclohexanone was also reduced, the inventory of cyclohexanone plants was increased, the load reduction production was carried out, the traders did not return to work temporarily, and the market atmosphere was relatively strong , cold delivery. In terms of price, the quoted price of cyclohexanone is still the price before the festival. The mainstream factory price is 7300-7450 yuan / ton, and there is no transaction price for the moment. Before the festival, 7400-7500 yuan / ton of surrounding spot exchange will be delivered to Shandong market, 7700-7900 yuan / ton of East China market, 7900-8000 yuan / ton of South China market..

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, pure benzene: after the festival, affected by the health events, the terminal was delayed to return to work, and the downstream was reduced in succession, resulting in a serious lack of follow-up of pure benzene market demand. In addition, there are various traffic restrictions. After Sinopec successively lowered the listing price of pure benzene to 5500 yuan / ton, the futures negotiation price in February and March weakened to 5300-5400 yuan / ton. However, due to the same logistics constraints, some downstream need to replenish pure benzene, and buying supports the spot price. Therefore, despite the reduction of futures price, the spot negotiation remains at a relatively high level of 5650-5800 yuan / ton.

Caprolactam: spot trading in the caprolactam market has not resumed this week. Due to the extension of the Spring Festival holiday and the postponement of resumption of work in the downstream areas, most of the terminal enterprises have not resumed work, and the new demand has not yet been released. In addition, the national road transportation has been affected, the trans provincial transportation is difficult, and the transportation and demand conditions have led to an increase in the inventory of caprolactam manufacturers. This week, the factory actively reduced production. At present, the overall operating rate of domestic caprolactam has dropped to 62.49%. Downstream contracts are mainly executed, and Sinopec’s advance collection price in February is reduced by 450 yuan / ton to 11550 yuan / ton (liquid, premium products, six-month acceptance and self withdrawal).

Adipic acid: in January, the market practice entered the Spring Festival holiday, and the sudden health and safety incidents developed rapidly. In most regions, road transportation at all levels was restricted, and short-distance delivery was also significantly affected. The market was much lighter than before. At the end of January and the beginning of February, the adipic acid plant completed the invoicing work, and the price increased by 300-400 yuan / ton compared with the previous month. Until now, most areas of the country have restricted the commencement of construction, which has been temporarily postponed to February 10. However, only a few enterprises have heard about and stopped the continuous production of adipic acid plant due to transportation restrictions, while others still have a proper production scheduling. Some relevant personnel are on duty or rotation. Recently, Shandong and other places have also adopted policies to guide the transportation of industrial and agricultural materials, and enterprises have also actively supported and provided cooperation services for customers, but there is no downstream service It is difficult for many factories to deliver goods to the outside world.

3、 Future forecast

Affected by the national transportation and logistics, on the cost side, the pure benzene inventory increased, the market price was expected to be lowered, and the market support for cyclohexanone was insufficient. On the demand side, the start-up of the terminal plant is delayed, and the enthusiasm of downstream caprolactam procurement is expected to decrease. Under the inventory pressure, the cyclohexanone analysts of the business community predict that the market price of cyclohexanone is more likely to linger near the cost line, and the price is likely to be lowered.