I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream carbide manufacturers fell from 2713.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2680.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.23%, down 6.10% year-on-year from the same period last year. Overall, carbide fell this week, with the carbide commodity index at 70.22 on November 15.

II. Trend analysis

(I) products:

The ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oveganeng’s price of calcium carbide at the end of this week was 2620 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of this week; Shaanxi coal industry’s price of calcium carbide at the end of this week was 2520 yuan / ton, temporarily stable compared with the beginning of this week; Neimenggu Zhonglian’s price of calcium carbide at the end of this week was 2770 yuan / ton, temporarily stable compared with the beginning of this week; Ningxia Xingping’s price of calcium carbide at the end of this week was 2650 yuan / ton , compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation dropped 50 yuan / ton.

This weekend, the actual transaction price of carbide in Northwest China is about 2500-2700 yuan / ton: the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Shaanxi is about 2500-2600 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Ningxia is about 2600 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 2700 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

(II) industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: the ex factory quotation of coke this week is temporarily stable, with the quotation of 1616.67 yuan / ton, down 36.85% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of raw materials in the upper reaches was lower and consolidated. Compared with last year, the price dropped a lot and the cost support was insufficient, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market: PVC factory price slightly increased this week. PVC price rose from 6670.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6742.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.09%, up 5.88% year on year. PVC market in the lower reaches rose slightly, and customers in the lower reaches were more active in purchasing calcium carbide. As a whole, PVC market rose this week, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

III. future forecast

After the adjustment in October, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The price of upstream raw materials fell slightly. Compared with last year, the price dropped a lot and the cost support was not enough. However, the PVC market in the downstream began to rise, and the enthusiasm of downstream customers for purchasing calcium carbide increased. The aftermarket forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest will rise in shock in late November.