Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the cobalt price in February continued the previous downward trend. As of February 28, the quotation price of Cobalt City was 295833.34 yuan/ton, which was 29166.66 yuan/ton lower than that of February 1, 325000.00 yuan/ton. In February, the cobalt market had not improved, and the cobalt price still fell sharply. In February, the cobalt price fell by 8.97%. In view of the closure of the cobalt Market during the Spring Festival, the cobalt price fell rapidly in February, approaching June of 18 years, and the cobalt market continued to be depressed.

II. Market Analysis

Trend analysis

As can be seen from the above chart, the domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles rose sharply in January 2019. In January, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 91,000 and 96,000 respectively, an increase of 113% and 138% over the same period last year. The production and sales of new energy automobiles have maintained high growth, which has a positive impact on the rise of cobalt market. However, as the rise of new energy automobiles is difficult to offset the impact of the decline in mobile phone sales, the overall market of cobalt is negative in terms of demand.

International Cobalt Price

On February 27, MB low-grade cobalt quoted $15.35-16.4 per pound, down $3.025 per pound from $17.85-19.95 per pound in early February (February 6), while high-grade cobalt quoted $15.3-16.7 per pound, down $2.9 per pound from $17.8-20 per pound in early February (February 6). International cobalt prices fell sharply, but the decline eased compared with January. Cobalt market is still weak, but tends to be stable. Overall, international cobalt market is negative for domestic cobalt market.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst for business associations, the price of cobalt fell sharply in February, but there is limited room for its decline. Although cobalt prices have continued to fall in the near future, there is a growing bullish voice. It is unlikely that cobalt prices will stop falling immediately and rise again, but the possibility of cobalt price fluctuation adjustment in the near future will rise. Now the cobalt price has fallen below the 300,000 yuan/ton mark, gradually approaching the historical low price range of cobalt price. On the supply side, cobalt mining continues to increase, cobalt ore supply increases, demand side, mobile phone sales decline, cobalt market demand is weak, although the growth of new energy vehicles brings about an increase in cobalt demand, but the overall cobalt demand is still declining. At present, both supply and demand are bad for Cobalt City, but there are still a lot of bullish voices in the market, which can be attributed to the following reasons: 1. The changing international political environment, the general election of Congo Kingdom Kong, and the unstable political environment have brought changes to the supply of Cobalt City; 2. Increasing mineral tax and cost of mining enterprises in Congo, Kinshasa, will inevitably lead to the rise of metal prices; 3. The game belt between African government and mining enterprises. In view of the government’s increasing tax revenue, mining enterprises may take measures to stop production or limit production to confront the uncertainty of cobalt supply in the future; 4. African workers’strike, workers’ strike continued to escalate, although it did not affect cobalt supply for the time being, but with the development of the situation, the supply and cost of cobalt mine will inevitably increase; 5, 5G mobile phone technology upgrading, mobile phone updating, mobile phone consumption or A sharp rise in demand for cobalt has brought good results. In summary, the cobalt market is still in the stage of oversupply at the present stage. The cobalt market is in a bad position. However, the future cobalt market changes still need real-time attention to the political dynamics and the renewal of mobile phone technology. In 2019, the cobalt market is bound to rebound, but now it seems that there is little room for the cobalt market to fall, and at the same time the strength of the rise is insufficient. Cobalt price is difficult to fall below the psychological level of 250,000 yuan/ton, but at the same time, the cobalt market is not fully motivated to rise, 350,000 yuan/ton is the current cobalt price difficult to reach the high level.