1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yungui yellow phosphorus decreased this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 17900 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 17800 yuan / ton. The price decreased within the week by 0.56%.

2、 Market analysis

Product: yellow phosphorus market price is down this week. At present, the operating rate of yellow phosphorus market has slightly increased. After the festival, the spot market is still tight, compared with before the festival and slightly improved, and the price of yellow phosphorus slightly fell. At present, the main quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 17300-17800 yuan / ton. The quotation in Guizhou is about 17600 yuan / ton. The quotation in Sichuan is about 17500-18000 yuan / ton. The overall market performance is average, the downstream procurement is more cautious, and traders mainly wait and see.

Industrial chain: upstream, the overall stable operation of phosphorus ore market is the main. At present, the quotation of 30% ammonium phosphate ore car plate in Guizhou is about 330-360 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction reference is about 320-340 yuan / ton, and the actual single price is mainly negotiated. The downstream phosphoric acid market is relatively stable, and in the short term, the phosphoric acid market is mainly weak and stable.

3、 Future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the yellow phosphorus market price fell this week, the overall market trading of yellow phosphorus was average, the spot tension slightly improved, the downstream procurement was more cautious, and the traders mainly watched. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be weak in the near future.

1、 Price trend

In April, the domestic market of dimethyl ether changed too fast, and the overall market still fell. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic DME market was 2590.00 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 2496.67 yuan / ton, with a drop of 3.6% in the month, 27.21% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Influencing factors

Product: the market of dimethyl ether fell in April, and the atmosphere of market transaction was better in the early stage and lighter in the later stage. As of April 30, there is no price for the parking of DME devices in Yutai, Shandong shengdeyuan, Henan Yima Xinyuan and Shanxi orchid company. The ex factory price of DME of Henan Lankao Huitong Chemical Co., Ltd. is 2520 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of DME of Henan xinlianxin Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd. is 2490 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of DME of Henan Shengxin Biotechnology Co., Ltd. is 2480 yuan/ The factory price of dimethyl ether of Hebei Jichun Chemical Co., Ltd. is 2600 yuan / ton.

Market: at the beginning of the month, DME market as a whole is the main actor. The international crude oil soared, driving the cost of methanol and liquefied gas up. In addition, the downstream storage and replenishment operations after the Qingming Festival were more active in entering the market, the manufacturers shipped more smoothly, the inventory was released, and the price continued to push up. On September 9, the international crude oil fell, which depressed the market to a certain extent, and the price fell slightly. However, the liquefied gas continued to push up driven by the sharp rise of propane, and the price difference between gas and ether gradually opened, which again brought benefits to the dimethyl ether Market. The dimethyl ether took advantage of the rising trend, and Henan xinlianxin increased the price for four consecutive days. However, the rise was short of substantial positive results. Subsequently, with the sharp fall of liquefied gas, DME followed the decline, and the price fell sharply in the short term. With the completion of a new round of replenishment in the downstream, the market has been closed for a long time, and the mentality is more cautious. In addition, with the continuous bottoming of cost methanol, the market transaction atmosphere has become weak, and the decline of dimethyl ether is hard to change. On the 23rd, under the favorable rebound of international crude oil, the liquefied gas market rose slightly, while dimethyl ether only stopped falling and stabilized, and then rose slightly. But it ended down again at the end of the month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are four commodities in the list of price rise and fall of bulk commodities in April 2020, among which the top three commodities are liquefied gas (4.99%), MTBE (4.92%) and methanol (3.59%). There are 12 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 6 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 37.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products falling are WTI crude oil (- 25.05%), asphalt (- 23.39%) and naphtha (- 18.96%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 6.46%.

3、 Future forecast

The price of domestic methanol continued to decline in late April, and the international oil price fell to a negative number in April. Market panic spread and investors’ interest was not high. The civil use of liquefied gas is also vulnerable to the impact of crude oil, but at present, the terminal market is mostly recovering, the demand for catering industry has increased, to some extent, it has been supported, and the price of dimethyl ether has dropped to a relatively low level, with limited space for decline. It is expected that the dimethyl ether Market as a whole may rise slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market of PA66 in China continued to be weak in April, and the price of PA66 decreased slowly throughout the month. As of Thursday, April 30, the average price of the mainstream offer of PA66 is about 20050.00 yuan / ton, 8.24% lower than the average price at the beginning of the month.

Analysis of influencing factors:

PA66 upstream adipic acid market after March’s market plunge, the current price is low. Most of the spot price adjustments are weak. Influenced by the sharp reduction of settlement price and listing price in April by the manufacturer, the price of adipic acid is generally reduced through the price offer. At present, the market is still generally affected by public health events at home and abroad, and the supply and demand are not prosperous. Most of the manufacturers are still bullish, however, they still maintain a high rate of start-up. Although most of the dealers have returned to normal delivery, they still haven’t reached the level of delivery before the epidemic, which leads to the gradual increase of inventory pressure of the manufacturers. On the cost side, in mid April, the price of pure benzene was affected by the rebound of crude oil at that time, showing a significant rebound, but still at a low price. In addition, the delay of cost conduction did not bring fundamental benefits to adipic acid. The downstream construction load still needs to be further improved, and it is difficult to expand the demand side. At present, the whole chemical industry market is impacted by the background of low oil price, and the market confidence is generally lax. The upstream bad is still an important factor restricting the adipic acid market, more importantly, affected by weak market demand, foreign orders shrink sharply, and adipic acid export is hit. It is predicted that the price of adipic acid will not improve in the near future;

The upstream adipic acid gave poor support to the PA66 cost side, and the market price of PA66 continued to weaken throughout April, with a negative market side. On the supply side, PA66 spot showed consistent adequacy, and the starting load of downstream plants was low. The background of imbalance between supply and demand remains unchanged. Moreover, PA66 plastic products are in the off-season of consumption recently, which is difficult to boost the market. The on-site trading is just in need, with few trading information and no large-scale stock.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in April, the domestic PA66 market continued to adjust its weak position. The spot price of adipic acid in the upstream is low, which is not good for PA66. The return rate of downstream factories needs to be improved. The replenishment operation is rigid and the demand is very limited. The market atmosphere is oversupplied, and the industry has insufficient confidence in the future market. It is expected that PA66 market will not improve in the short term.

1、 Overall trend

This week (4.26-30) polyethylene showed an upward trend, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market was general. As of April 30, the average ex factory price of LLDPE 7042 in East China was 6300 yuan / ton, up 0.53% from the beginning of the week; the average ex factory price of LDPE 2426h in East China was about 7325 yuan / ton, up 0.34% from the beginning of the week; the average ex factory price of HDPE 5000S in East China was 7050 yuan / ton, up 0.95% from the beginning of the week; the big PE varieties increased by 50-200 yuan / ton on Wednesday.

2、 Market analysis

Upstream: crude oil fell first and then rose this week. On April 27, the global crude oil inventory remained high, the market was still worried that the reduction of production was not enough to offset the decline of demand, and the international oil price fell sharply. WTI 06 fell $4.16/barrel at 12.78, while Brent 06 fell $1.45/barrel at 19.99. China’s SC crude oil futures fell 11.1 yuan to 235.1 yuan / barrel in 2007. On April 29, overseas countries plan to gradually relax the epidemic control to boost demand. The market expects OPEC + joint production reduction to be implemented in May, and the growth rate of US commercial crude oil inventory is lower than expected. International oil prices have risen sharply. WTI 06 rose $2.72/barrel at 15.06, while Brent 06 rose $2.08/barrel at 22.54. China’s SC crude oil futures rose 13.5 yuan to 243.5 yuan / barrel in 2007.

Factory trends: at the beginning of the week, linear futures soared, which was good for the market. Most petrochemical enterprises raised the factory price by 50-100 yuan / ton. However, the international crude oil plummeted, and the futures also fell sharply, which to a certain extent hit the confidence of the industry. The market transaction atmosphere was light, and the PE market rose weakly. The price of petrochemical enterprises is stable, which supports the market to a certain extent. The mood of the businessmen is general, and more stable shipments. Late week, near the May Day holiday, there are replenishment operations in the downstream before the festival, the market transaction atmosphere is better than that in the earlier stage, and the price is mainly arranged horizontally.

Futures trend: the futures market fell in shock this week, which to some extent depressed the spot market. On April 30, the opening price of polyethylene futures l2009 was 6150, the highest price was 6190, the lowest price was 6020, the closing price was 6180, the former settlement price was 6110, the settlement price was 6110, up 70, or 1.15%, the trading volume was 423283, the position was 328375, and the daily increase was – 10925. (quotation unit: yuan / ton).

3、 Future forecast

The sharp rise in international crude oil has brought certain benefits to the market. The linear futures market fell in shock, which depressed the market mentality. At present, the peak season of plastic film demand has passed, the off-season is coming, and the terminal demand is expected to decrease. At the end of the month, petrochemical enterprises issue the price at the beginning of the next month, and the three kinds of PE drawing are all lowered, and the market atmosphere remains to be seen. Polyethylene market is expected to decline in May.

1、 Price trend

 
2、 Market analysis

Mannheim potassium sulfate factory: about 2700 for 50% powder; about 2800-2850 for 50% particle and 52% water-soluble powder. Report station of potassium sulfate manufacturer in water salt system: Xinjiang 51-52% powder 3100-3150; Qinghai 50% powder 2300-2380. The price of Mannheim potassium sulfate in Sichuan Province is still at the top of the domestic market. The factory price of 52% of all water soluble powder is about 2950 yuan / ton, but the local price is also slowing down from the trend. The potassium sulfate manufacturers in Qinghai water salt system started well, and the sales pressure was not large for the time being. However, the enthusiasm of the downstream payment customers to pick up the goods was obviously weakened, which was also caused by the impact of the environment. At the present stage, the market is dominated by early orders, with few new orders clinched. Some manufacturers are under certain pressure in sales. The high-end transaction price has a large margin of preference, and the market remains stable in the short term. Currently, the factory price of 50% powder of Mannheim type potassium sulfate in North China is mostly about 2650-2750 yuan / ton, and the factory price of 50% grain is mostly about 2700-2900 yuan / ton. The transaction can be negotiated. Except for potassium chloride, other influencing factors in the potassium sulfate Market have not changed much. The trend in the later stage can only be determined by referring to the potassium chloride market, so the downward trend is also obvious.

3、 Future forecast

In general, the potassium sulfate Market is also concerned about the potassium chloride contract, and some manufacturers have said they are preparing for falling prices. According to the analysis of potassium sulphate of the business association, the market of potassium sulphate in the current form is not optimistic, and the market is mainly conservative before the big contract comes out.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, as of April 26, the average market price of organosilicon DMC in several mainstream areas monitored by the data was around 14633 yuan / ton, slightly increased by about 33 yuan / ton compared with the lowest price of this week (reference 14600 yuan / ton on April 21); decreased by about 570 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month (reference 15200 yuan / ton on April 1), The decrease was 3.5%.

2、 Market analysis

Product: in late April, the overall market of organosilicon DMC is still weak and low-level operation. Influenced by the factors such as the slight recovery of the downstream market of silicone rubber, the price of some low-end quotations increased slightly last week, with the adjustment range of around 100-200 yuan / ton. The slight price increase of some manufacturers has not played a certain role in boosting the terminal market, and the downstream wait-and-see attitude is still the same. We are purchasing on demand Be careful of hoarding. In the early stage, the bidding game of the factory has eased the inventory to a certain extent. At present, the market has mostly stabilized operation, and another regulation of the market is closely related to the operating rate. In the future, the operating rate of the single factory still needs to be paid attention to. As of April 26, the mainstream market of organosilicon DMC was weak and volatile, with the mainstream reference of 14500-15300 yuan / ton and the low-end quotation of 14100 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: upstream silicon metal market: at present, export transactions are still light, foreign trade market is weak, spot trade of port traders is not hot at present; domestic trade and investment are relatively improved compared with the previous period. On the 26th, the market price of ᦇ 441 silicon in Huangpu port area was stable, with the current price range of 10800-10900 yuan / ton and the average market price of 10850 yuan / ton; the market price of ᦇ 441 silicon in Tianjin port area was stable, with the current price range of 10800-10900 yuan / ton and the average market price of 10850 yuan / ton; the market price of silicon in Kunming area was stable, with the current price range of 10600-10700 yuan / ton and the average price of 10650 yuan / ton; the fourth Sichuan metal silicon market silicon price is stable, the current price range is 10500-10600 yuan / ton, the average price is 10550 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

It is expected that in the near future, organosilicon DMC will mainly maintain stable operation, and the downstream market will slowly pick up in recent days, or it will drive the market of organosilicon DMC to steadily improve.

1、 Overall trend

This week (4.20-24) polyethylene showed a downward trend, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market was weak. As of April 24, the average ex factory price of LLDPE 7042 in East China was 6266.67 yuan / ton, down 6.47% compared with the beginning of the week; the average ex factory price of LDPE 2426h in East China was about 7300 yuan / ton, down 6.11% compared with the beginning of the week; the average ex factory price of HDPE 5000S in East China was 7483.33 yuan / ton, down 6.68% compared with the beginning of the week; large PE varieties dropped 300-600 yuan / ton on Wednesday.

2、 Market analysis

Upstream: crude oil fell first and then rose this week. On April 20, WTI crude oil futures market prices in the United States fell sharply, with June contract at 20.43 yuan / barrel, down $4.60 (- 18.4%). Brent crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, the main contract at $25.57/barrel, down $0.26. At one time, the contract fell to a negative range in May, but from the perspective of the contract in June, the negative value was the exception, not the normal state of the global crude oil market. On April 23, WTI crude oil futures market prices in the United States rose sharply, with the settlement price of major contracts at 16.50 yuan / barrel, up $2.72 or 19.7%. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, the main contract settlement price was 24.79 US dollars / barrel, up 4.42 US dollars or 21.7%. This is also the international crude oil rebound for two consecutive days, with WTI up more than 40%, mainly due to the accelerated production reduction of oil producing countries, as well as peripheral geopolitical factors.

Dynamic of manufacturers: at the beginning of the week, under the attack of international crude oil, petrochemical enterprises continued to decline, successively reducing the ex factory price of PE, and the market cost support strength weakened. Then the linear futures fell back in shock, affecting the market mentality, the mood of merchants was pessimistic, and the price fell accordingly. Downstream market entry enthusiasm is not high, more on-demand replenishment, strong wait-and-see mood. Later in the week, the rebound of international crude oil supported the market to a certain extent, and the price stopped falling and returned to stability. At present, the overall contradiction between supply and demand still exists in the market, and the atmosphere continues to be weak.

Futures trend: this week, the futures market first fell and then rose, with a large amplitude. At the beginning of the week, the market fell in shock, the market atmosphere was short, and the weekend futures prices rose. On April 24, the opening price of polyethylene futures l2009 was 6080, the highest price was 6175, the lowest price was 6020, the closing price was 6110, the former settlement price was 5960, the settlement price was 6090, up 150, up 2.52%, the volume was 560181, the position was 353346, and the daily position was 1406. (quotation unit: yuan / ton).

Downstream: at present, it is in the production season of plastic film, the demand for plastic film in the downstream has increased, and the market confidence has improved. The construction of large and medium-sized enterprises in the northern part of geomembrane is acceptable, about 50-80%. However, small and medium-sized enterprises have rarely started construction. The demand for mulch film in South China is coming to an end. Except for some large-scale enterprises to maintain production, most of them have been shut down. Later orders are expected to decrease.

3、 Future forecast

The trend of international crude oil rebounded and the linear futures also rose, bringing certain support to the market. In the late week, most of the prices of petrochemical enterprises have stopped falling and stabilized, and the enthusiasm of the downstream market has improved. However, petrochemical inventory is at a medium and high level, and there is still pressure on sales, or price control. It is expected that the future market will rise in the short term.

On April 20, WTI crude oil futures market prices in the United States fell sharply, with June contract at 20.43 yuan / barrel, down $4.60 (- 18.4%). Brent crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, the main contract at $25.57/barrel, down $0.26. At one time, the contract fell to a negative range in May, but from the perspective of the contract in June, the negative value was the exception, not the normal state of the global crude oil market.

June contract is the most active main contract in the current WTI futures market. Although the decline was more than 18% yesterday, the trading price was more than $20 per barrel, still at the bottom of the $20 / barrel range.

WTI contract fell by more than 300% in May, but it is not the main contract, which belongs to the situation of “too much air force” close to delivery (delivery on Tuesday), which shows that oil companies that need to make physical delivery of crude oil in the near future may not find a place to store these crude oil, especially the decline of refining capacity of US refineries leads to the gradual increase of crude oil inventory, and the lack of demand caused by the combined epidemic has already made us oil storage The device has reached its limit. According to data, as of the week of April 17, crude oil inventory in Cushing, the delivery place of West Texas light crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange, increased to 61 million barrels, and the crude oil inventory capacity in Cushing was about 78 million barrels. Cushing faces the risk of expansion. In addition, we can see the clue from the floating oil storage. The data shows that the offshore floating oil storage in July 2019 was about 24 million barrels, but up to now, it is estimated that the long-term floating oil storage has reached a record 160 million barrels. According to the business club, the urgency of global storage capacity may cause unprecedented pressure on oil prices in the future, and oil prices may continue to decline. In particular, the epidemic may recover the affected demand in a long term. According to the agency’s calculation, the current crude oil demand has dropped by 30%, about 30 million barrels / day. However, from the perspective of OPEC and other oil producing countries’ production reduction, it is obviously not enough.

In addition, the decline in fuel demand may lead to more and more refinery capacity decline, which will further aggravate the crude oil surplus and inventory shortage. Due to capital constraints, crude oil drilling companies have cut costs and cancelled plans. According to Baker Hughes service, US crude oil drilling companies closed 13% of us drilling platforms this week, so far, more than one third of them have Us drilling has been shut down; however, OPEC + production reduction agreement can not solve the recent problems. The date of OPEC + production reduction agreement is May 1, and from the latest exposed information, it was reported on April 20 that Russia has increased its oil production by nearly 1% in the past three days, which shows that the multi interests of the market do not tend to be consistent, which also makes more market people lose confidence in the production reduction agreement , which will cause the oil price to remain in a bearish state and further increase the downward pressure.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride rose slightly in April. As of April 20, the average price of acetic anhydride quoted by enterprises was 5087.50 yuan / ton, up 50.00 yuan / ton, or 0.99%, compared with 5037.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and down 10.22% compared with the same period last year. In April, acetic anhydride market was strong and stable.

2、 Market analysis:

Product analysis:

In April, the price of acetic anhydride fluctuated slightly and rose. The downstream enterprises of acetic anhydride gradually resumed construction, and the demand for acetic anhydride recovered. In general, the acetic anhydride enterprises started construction, Yankuang acetic anhydride equipment just resumed construction, the supply is insufficient, and the overall supply of acetic anhydride is tight. At present, the transaction price of acetic anhydride is about 4900 yuan / ton.

Industry chain factor analysis:

The price of acetic anhydride rose slightly in April. The price of acetic acid fluctuated and adjusted, the price of raw materials rose slightly, and the cost of acetic anhydride rose. Acetic anhydride market has a certain degree of support for the future market has a certain good acetic anhydride market.

In April, the price of methanol, raw materials and acetic anhydride rose sharply. Acetic anhydride cost support is sufficient, which is good for acetic anhydride market in the future.

3、 Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data of business association, the price of raw materials for acetic anhydride rose in April and the cost of acetic anhydride rose. The equipment of downstream enterprises started to rise gradually, and the demand for acetic anhydride rose. Yankuang acetic anhydride equipment has just resumed operation, and the supply is insufficient. Acetic anhydride market support role is sufficient. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride in the future will be strong and stable.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate in this week is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the market price of domestic ammonium nitrate is 2300 yuan / ton, which is equal to 2300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 13.11% year on year. On April 17, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 121.05, unchanged from yesterday, 3.36% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 125.26 (2020-03-15), and 56.46% higher than the lowest point, 77.37, on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

This week, the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market in China is temporarily stable. The operation of domestic ammonium nitrate plants is normal. The on-site supply of ammonium nitrate is normal. The price trend of manufacturers is temporarily stable. In the near future, the on-site supply of goods is normal. Transportation has been alleviated to a certain extent. The market price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. In recent years, the market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is not good, the downstream purchase is on demand, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have limited start-up, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 2100-2300 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2000-2300 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 2200-2600 yuan / ton.

The price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China fell this week, with the weekend price of 1516.67 yuan / ton, and this week’s price trend fell 3.12%. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1500 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 1450 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai offers 1700 yuan / ton. Anhui Aodeli offers 1450 yuan / ton; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offers 1630 yuan / ton. In the near future, the operation of domestic maintenance devices is normal, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the on-site delivery situation is poor. The price trend of nitric acid market has dropped by 50-100 yuan / ton. The decline of nitric acid price is the negative impact of ammonium nitrate Market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market has been temporarily stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia this week is temporarily stable. On the one hand, the current inventory pressure of the manufacturer is not large at the early stage, and the downstream fertilizer replenishment leads to the continuous stability of the manufacturer’s shipment, but most of the manufacturers report stable today, mainly because the spring farming season has passed, the downstream has ended the centralized preparation, the strength of taking the goods has decreased, and most of the purchases are on demand. At present, the overall supply and demand of the market is in a balanced stage. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the current quotation of liquid ammonia in the northern region is 3000-3100 yuan / ton, the price trend of upstream raw materials is temporarily stable, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable.

In the near future, the downstream demand is limited, but the market price of raw materials is slightly lower. For the ammonium nitrate Market, it has lost certain cost support. The ammonium nitrate analyst of the business association thinks that the market price of ammonium nitrate may be slightly lower in the later stage.