1、 Price trend

The ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly this week, from 1656.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1680.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.41%, down 11.89% year-on-year from the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, with the urea commodity index at 78.14 on June 12.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream urea factory price in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. The quotation of Yangmei plain urea this weekend is 1680 yuan / ton, which is 50 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea this weekend is 1660 yuan / ton, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea this weekend is 1700 yuan / ton, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of market demand, at present, the wheat harvest season in North China and central China has come to the end, with a slight decline in agricultural demand and weak enthusiasm for goods preparation; in terms of industrial demand, the procurement of downstream compound fertilizer and plate enterprises is more cautious, with more on-demand procurement, on-demand use and moderate follow-up. Supply side: Recently, the start-up of urea enterprises still fell slightly, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. The short-term urea market is expected to fluctuate slightly.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chain: the urea upstream products in this week have increased slightly as a whole: the price of natural gas has increased slightly, with the quotation rising 0.54% from 2490.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2503.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 27.51% compared with the same period of last year; the price of liquid ammonia in this week is temporarily stable, with the quotation of 3083.33 yuan / ton, down 6.19% compared with the same period of last year, and the urea cost in this week as a whole Strong support. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was temporarily stable, with a price of 5066.67 yuan / ton. The downstream rubber plate factory has a general enthusiasm for urea procurement, which has a negative impact on the price of urea.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of June, the urea market in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly. Urea analysts of business club believe that at present, agricultural demand has declined slightly, and downstream industry has general enthusiasm for urea procurement. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly and fall mainly.

This week, the international oil price surged and fell. The domestic gasoline price rose and then fell, leading the MTBE price to rise and then fell back. According to the data of business agency, the MTBE price this weekend was 3883 yuan / ton, 5.43% higher than the previous week’s price.

On June 7, at the OPEC + ministerial video conference, OPEC agreed to extend its measures to reduce production by 9.7 million barrels per day for one month until the end of July. WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices in the United States topped $40 / barrel and $43 / barrel respectively. In the middle of the week, there is a growing concern that the outbreak will give a second strike to crude oil. Meanwhile, as of the week of June 5, the U.S. crude oil inventory unexpectedly increased by 5.7 million barrels, to a record high of 538 million barrels, and the international oil price dropped.

At the beginning of the week, there was a strong positive signal from crude oil. Downstream customers were willing to purchase, MTBE manufacturers delivered goods smoothly, and the market price kept rising. However, in the medium term, the international oil price surged and fell, the purchase willingness of the middle and downstream was weakened, the gasoline delivery performance of refineries was poor, and the transaction atmosphere of MTBE market was also weakened. MTBE manufacturers in Shandong took the lead in opening the price reduction promotion mode, and domestic MTBE prices were opened Correction trend.

Lu Xingjun, an analyst with business news agency, believes that in the short term, international oil prices are facing downward pressure, domestic demand for refined oil is weakening, refinery inventory is rising, and MTBE has not yet been put back in place. It is expected that the domestic MTBE price will be reduced by 200-300 yuan / ton next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the price of aniline this week has been stable and moving slightly. On June 5, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4400-4490 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 4600-4820 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, the price of pure benzene rose slightly. Crude oil and outer plate have strong support for pure benzene. Port inventory rose in the week, but the increase decreased. Sunday (June 7) price is 3550-3850 yuan / ton (average price 3660 yuan / ton), up 1.67% from last week.

The price of nitric acid has been stable since May 7, and the production price in East China this week was 1433.33 yuan / ton.

This week, aniline was stable as a whole, and individual enterprises cut prices for shipment.

3、 Future expectation

Next week, with the OPEC meeting, the oil price will rise as a whole. The resumption of work and production in foreign countries has been promoted, and the external price is firm. It is expected that the pure benzene will run stronger next week.

Aniline fell in a small space but not enough action, and aniline continued to stabilize in the short term.

1、 Price data:

According to the data monitoring of the business club’s bulk list, affected by the poor downstream demand, the price of bromine in Shandong fell in shock this week. The average price at the beginning of the week was about 29111 yuan / ton, and the average price at the weekend was about 28777 yuan / ton, down 1.15% in the week, down 17.61% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: this week, the production of domestic bromine enterprises remained at a normal level, and the market as a whole fell by about 1000 yuan / ton compared with the end of last month. The enterprise’s shipment was not good, the inventory gradually accumulated, and the spot supply was stable. As the downstream demand failed to rise, the situation of bromine market oversupply will continue to intensify. At present, the quotation of mainstream bromine enterprises is about 27500-29000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the market price of sulfuric acid is mainly stable, the inventory of enterprises is low, the downstream demand is flat, and it is kept at about 290 yuan / ton in a week; the price of liquid chlorine stops falling and rebounds, some enterprises are recovering in the process of unit maintenance, the market supply is relatively small, and the demand of downstream market is improving, which supports the sharp rise of liquid chlorine price in two ways. At present, about 700-800 yuan / ton is in Shandong; outside sulfur Due to the tight supply and higher price than the intended purchase price, the domestic market is relatively inconsistent with the high-end price, and the market transaction is slightly flat, at present, about 556 yuan / ton; the domestic soda ash market atmosphere is flat, and the transaction is general, and the overall inventory pressure of the enterprise is still large. Although the manufacturer plans to reduce the inventory of parking maintenance, the overall transaction is still average, at present, about 1266 yuan / ton. The overall operating rate of the main downstream flame retardant market of bromine is less than 50%, the buying atmosphere in the industry is general, the demand for bromine is poor, the starting of pharmaceutical and pesticide intermediates and other industries is flat, and the overall rigid demand is soft.

3、 Future forecast

According to the bromine industry analysts of the business association, at present, the demand side of the downstream market of bromine has no positive improvement, while the bromine market is in the peak season of production, and the situation of market supply exceeding demand is becoming more and more intense. The support for the bromine market is negative, and the market is full of bearish mentality. It is expected that the bromine market in China will be weak in a short period of time.

OPEC + extended production reduction agreement is expected to increase. This week, the international crude oil price continued to rise, driving the downstream gasoline and diesel prices to rise steadily. This week’s domestic gasoline price was 5025 yuan / ton, 2.71% higher than last week’s. The domestic diesel price is 4967 yuan / ton, 0.70% higher than that of last week.

OPEC + will hold a production reduction consultation meeting on June 6. The market released favorable expectations of crude oil producers to extend the production reduction agreement, and oil prices rose continuously. It is widely believed that OPEC + is considering extending the implementation period of its 9.7 million B / D production reduction agreement to July or August at this week’s meeting. According to the previous agreement, the scale of production reduction from July to the end of this year will be reduced to 7.7 million barrels / day. Saudi Arabia and Russia have preliminarily reached an agreement to continue to reduce production. With the rising crude oil price, the supporting effect on the refined oil market is more obvious. In the situation of bullish crude oil, the willingness to purchase and store refined oil in the middle and lower reaches increases, further boosting the market price of refined oil.

In recent years, the domestic weather has turned hot, the gasoline consumption is strong, and the downstream replenishment demand is relatively positive; the overall performance of the diesel market is average, the high temperature weather limits the diesel market demand, but the rigid demand industry still has strong support for the market.

At present, the profit margin of refinery oil products is quite considerable. After the middle of April, the operation rate of atmospheric and vacuum distillation reached a high level of 70%, and in the near future, the operation rate of atmospheric and vacuum distillation reached 75%. The supply and demand of refined oil market rose again.

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst with business news agency, believes that although Russia and Saudi Arabia have reached an agreement to extend the production reduction for one month, the situation of production reduction in Iraq and Nigeria is not good, and market concerns are growing. Whether the crude oil price can break through the “floor price” of domestic oil products of $40 / barrel remains variable. It is expected that the domestic oil product market will remain stable next week.

1、 Price trend:

On May 29, crude benzene commodity index was 43.87, unchanged from yesterday, 66.72% lower than 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and 43.65% higher than 30.54, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

Crude oil rose this week. Crude oil production continues to decline, gasoline demand shows signs of recovery, and the overall oil price shows an upward trend. However, the contradiction between the supply and demand of crude oil is still prominent, and the oversupply is still the primary problem restricting the oil price. This week, it was reported that Russia began to reduce production in July, and oil prices were under pressure again. Brent was up $1.53/barrel, or 4.66%, on May 22, while WTI was up $2.59/barrel, or 7.79%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 48.51% and WTI by 41.02%. On July 27, Sinopec’s listing price of pure benzene was increased by 150 yuan / ton to 3500 yuan / ton. Prices rose on Tuesday, supported by positive crude oil and external market conditions.

The crude benzene market has stabilized this week, and the cost pressure in the downstream hydrogenation benzene market remains the same, which suppresses the price of crude benzene. Although the operating rate of hydrogenation benzene has increased to a certain extent, the overall crude benzene inventory is high, there is no demand support, and the price of crude benzene is mainly volatile. As of Friday, the price of crude benzene in Shandong was 2800 yuan / ton, almost the same as last week.

From the perspective of the business community in the aftermarket, it is believed that the crude benzene price is slightly stagnant in the near future when the fundamental influence has not changed greatly. From the perspective of supply and demand, some factors such as small-scale production restriction appear in some areas of coking enterprises in the near future, but the crude benzene supply is relatively stable and the overall inventory is on the high side. The demand of downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises can digest a certain amount of crude benzene, but the cost pressure restricts the price increase of crude benzene In the short term, crude benzene price will keep stable operation, and in the later stage, crude oil price and downstream hydrogenation benzene operation rate will be mainly concerned.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, domestic isopropanol prices fluctuated in May, and fell slightly throughout the month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of isopropanol in China was 11666.67 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 11566.67 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

In May, the domestic isopropanol market price changed a lot, and the whole month saw a small drop in price. In May, the price of isopropanol showed a rapid downward trend after labor day. After a week of short-term reduction, the market price gradually picked up, and the low monthly price appeared a small shock. Up to now, Shandong isopropanol negotiation range is about 11500-11600 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu isopropanol negotiation range is 11500-11700 yuan / ton. The negotiation range of isopropanol in South China is 11700-11800 yuan / ton. As far as the current international situation is concerned, the market demand for disinfectant in foreign countries will continue for some time, and the favorable factors of isopropanol in China mainly come from the export.

In terms of raw materials, the market price of acetone rose, the acetone market in East China pushed up again, the factory inventory and maintenance plan, the market supply was tight again, and there were few stocks in North China, and most of the supply was replenished from East China or even South China, so that the mainstream offers in East China pushed up 200-300 yuan / ton again, and the market offers 8600-8900 yuan / ton. Currently, the price is high, the stock is rare, and the downstream conflicts are obvious. The market price of propylene in Shandong is still down. Up to now, the mainstream market price is about 6400-6500 yuan / ton. The pressure of the manufacturer’s shipment increases and the inventory slows down, so the propylene price is expected to decline in recent days.

3、 Future forecast

According to the isopropanol analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the market price of raw acetone is rising, and the port quotation in East China is sporadically at a high price of 9000 yuan / ton. The current market has a new record in six years. However, the raw material propylene is weak, and the price is expected to decline. In terms of demand, favorable support from foreign trade will continue for some time. Domestic trade enquiries are more frequent, with the focus on wait-and-see, and the goods are very cautious. At present, the atmosphere of isopropanol market is slightly stalemate. On the whole, the probability of isopropanol price reduction in the short term is small, and follow-up attention will be paid to the change of news.

1、 Price trend

This month, EO price adjustment is frequent. For example, in the mainstream East China region, the price has been increased three times, from 6300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 7000 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 11%.

2、 Industrial chain:

Thanks to the continuous increase of crude oil price, the market went up. On January 1, the price of ethylene in the CFR Northeast Asia market was $375.00/t, and on September 29, it was $720 / T. although the increase slowed down, the trend was still strong. In addition, the supply of ethylene in Northeast Asia was tight, which led the downstream industry to recover. The consolidation after the rise of ethylene glycol has brought certain support to the market of ethylene oxide on the basic level. However, due to the maintenance of some ethylene oxide units, the supply side is tight and the price is rising, which plays a driving role in the downstream market. The downstream monomer market is stable after the price rise, and the follow-up situation is still based on rigid demand, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is reported that the overhaul device in North China is planned to be restarted in early July, and that in East China is planned to be overhauled from July to August.

3、 Forecast:

We need to pay attention to the change of raw material price and factory news in a timely manner.

On May 27, WTI crude oil futures market prices in the United States fell sharply, and the settlement price of major contracts was 32.81 yuan / barrel, down $1.54 or 4.5%. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, the settlement price of major contracts was $35.45/barrel, down $1.29 or 3.5%, mainly due to the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventory and tension between China and the US.

The weekly crude oil inventory reports of the American Petroleum Association (API) and the American Energy Information Agency (EIA) were delayed one day due to the impact of Monday’s memorial day of the United States. Coincidentally, an in-depth survey released by the market on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude oil inventory may decline for the third consecutive week last week, and analysts surveyed expect that U.S. crude oil inventory may decrease by about 1.9 million barrels as of the week of May 22. However, the data released by API on Thursday Beijing time showed a significant increase in inventory, breaking the previous optimistic expectations of the market. Market confidence was once frustrated, and oil prices fell sharply. The data released by API showed that the inventory of crude oil, gasoline and distillate oil in the United States increased by 8.7 million barrels in the week ending may 22, while analysts predicted that the inventory of crude oil in the United States would decrease by 1.9 million barrels The oil storage is more than 10 million barrels higher than the previous market expectation.

At the same time, tensions between the United States and China continue to heat up, which also casts a shadow on the market. U.S. President trump said he would soon announce the U.S. response to China’s national security laws in Hong Kong and Macao. In addition, China also said it would take corresponding countermeasures against us actions, which may include sanctions. As the world’s two largest economies, the rising trade friction is likely to further hit the demand for crude oil.

At present, OPEC + production reduction is still the focus of market attention. On May 27, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Salman made a call to reach an agreement on further “close coordination” to limit oil production. It includes a statement: “the two sides agree to further close cooperation on this issue through the energy ministries of the two countries.” But that didn’t seem to give the market much boost, although OPEC agreed to cut its combined oil production by nearly 10 million barrels per day in May and June to deal with the oversupply of crude oil hit by the epidemic. However, from the content of the previous agreement, the restrictions on crude oil output may be relaxed in July, and the share of production reduction may be further reduced. Moreover, this is likely to become a contradiction between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Saudi Arabia’s intention may be to maintain the current level of production reduction, but Russia’s attitude is relatively ambiguous, which also has a certain negative effect on oil prices.

In the view of business cooperatives, the contradiction between supply and demand of crude oil is still prominent, and the problem of excess supply is still the primary problem that plagues the oil market. However, with the reduction of production in oil producing countries and the restart of economy in more countries, the supply and demand of crude oil will tend to a new balance. During this period, oil prices will be accompanied by wide swings. At present, on the one hand, the risk factors of the market are Sino US relations, and more importantly, the resumption of the economy may lead to the recurrence of the epidemic. On the premise that the supply problem has not been completely solved, the market should be careful to prevent the secondary damage of repeated epidemic situation to the oil price.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the caustic soda price continues to be in a weak consolidation operation this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 487.5 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average market price in Shandong was about 482.5 yuan / ton, with the price down 1.03. On May 24, the caustic soda commodity index was 69.42, the same as yesterday, 66.44% lower than 206.87 (2017-11-14), the highest point in the cycle, and 2.65% higher than 67.63, the lowest point on May 10, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: the price of caustic soda is weak this week. At present, 32% ionic membrane alkali: about 420-500 yuan / ton in Shandong market, about 1400-1450 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia market, and about 550-650 yuan / ton in Jiangsu market. In terms of liquid caustic soda, the price of caustic soda in Shandong has returned to stability, the price performance of some markets in the south is stable, and some shipments are weak. At present, the overall price of domestic market is relatively low. Quotation of flake alkali: about 1780-1800 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia market, 2050-2100 yuan / ton in Shandong market, 2120-2150 yuan / ton in East China market and 1550-1600 yuan / ton in Xinjiang market. In terms of flake alkali, the manufacturer’s quotation continues to be firm, and some enterprises are still in maintenance state. However, due to the lack of downstream procurement, some traders gave up their profits in a narrow range.

Industry chain: from the perspective of downstream market, the starting load of downstream alumina and viscose industries is not high, among which, the starting load of viscose fiber industry has a downward trend, while other industries have a flat performance. On the whole, the market relies on the maintenance of enterprises for good support, but the terminal demand support strength is relatively weak, and the good support is insufficient.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 20th week of 2020 (5.18-5.22), there are 2 kinds of commodities rising and falling in the price list of chlor alkali industry, 2 kinds of commodities falling and 1 kind of commodities rising and falling to 0. The main commodities rising were PVC (3.34%), calcium carbide (0.68%); the main commodities falling were light soda ash (- 3.75%), caustic soda (- 1.03%). This week’s average was – 0.15%.

Macro: in April 2020, the BCI of the business community was -0.02, with an average increase of 0.38%, reflecting the contraction of the manufacturing economy compared with the previous month and the stable operation of the economy.

According to the analysts of the business association, the overall demand of domestic caustic soda market is general, the starting load of alumina is low, the price performance of some markets in the south is relatively strong, and the price of caustic soda in Shandong is stable. Because the price of liquid caustic soda is stagnant in the cost line, it is expected that the domestic caustic soda market will still operate stably as a whole, or there will be minor adjustment and operation in some parts.