1、 Price data

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of gasoline and diesel fell this week. The price of domestic gasoline was 5194 yuan / ton, 3.11% lower than that of last week. The price of domestic diesel was 5002 yuan / ton, 4.18% lower than that of last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: crude oil futures price falls first and then rises, and the refined oil market follows the price adjustment. Domestic enterprises return to work and resume production, which brings good demand. However, recently, the operating rate of domestic refining and chemical equipment has risen to a high level, and the market price of refined oil is insufficient.

Industry chain: Saudi Arabia has been waging a price war, constantly putting downward pressure on oil prices through increasing production. However, trump has repeatedly released optimistic comments. On Thursday, he tweeted that Russia and Saudi Arabia are expected to cut production by 10-15 million barrels, which was later refuted by Saudi officials, and the increase in international oil prices fell. But as of 15:00 on the 3rd, the price of WTI crude oil was 25.5 US dollars / barrel, and this week, WTI crude oil futures rose 16.5%.

Market: the rebound of international oil price is good for the market price of refined oil, but the average starting load of refining and purchase in recent years has risen rapidly to 70.35%, 8.51 percentage points higher on a month on month basis. On the demand side and on the gasoline side, domestic enterprises have basically resumed production, and the retail price of domestic gasoline has dropped to a low point. Traders and downstream customers have low-cost replenishment operations, and gasoline transactions are acceptable. In terms of diesel, the construction and infrastructure construction maintain a high operating rate. In terms of logistics and transportation, according to the China Federation of logistics and purchasing, the prosperity index of China’s logistics industry in March 2020 was 51.5%, up 25.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the logistics and transportation industry picked up faster and supported the demand for diesel oil significantly. This week, the price of domestic refined oil market first fell and then rose, but the increase was limited.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an analyst of refined oil products of business association, believes that: at present, crude oil prices are rising and falling by a large margin, market news is long and empty, and there are signs of recovery in the refined oil market. However, the recovery in the operating rate of refinery units has restrained the increase in the price of refined oil, and it is expected that the market price of refined oil will be stable in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the market price of domestic aggregate MDI continued to be depressed. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic aggregate MDI was 12875 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price of aggregate MDI was 11750 yuan / ton, down 8.74% in the month, 34.27% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: in March, the domestic aggregate MDI market began to fall again after rebounding from its low point, and the fluctuation range of the whole month was about 1000-1300 yuan / ton. It is difficult for the demand side to have obvious positive news, only the occasionally released supplier good news, and it is difficult for the aggregate MDI market price to be stable for a long time. Supply side: the overall load of each manufacturer is still around 40%, and the Ruian plant is still in the state of shutdown. During the whole March, the manufacturer’s information was scarce, and there was no attitude. Occasionally, the market operators released false device information to raise market prices and actively shipped goods. In summary, the market price dropped to 11000 yuan / ton at the end of the month. Trade side: in the early months, the manufacturers put pressure on the traders, and the stocks of the traders were high, and they actively negotiated the shipment at a low price. However, the settlement price at the end of the month is on the high side, and the profit of the agent is seriously reduced. At present, the trade side is cautious in shipment and dare not go too low in price.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: the price of pure benzene fell sharply this month. In the month, Saudi Arabia and Russia plan to increase production substantially, and the oil demand is greatly reduced due to the epidemic prevention and control of city closures in overseas countries, and the imbalance between supply and demand leads to a sharp drop in crude oil; while the macroeconomic indicators such as US stocks are also greatly reduced due to the impact of health events. Affected by the above macro negative factors, the price of pure benzene weakened significantly in March, with a drop of more than 2600 yuan / ton in East China. In March, Sinopec’s listing price was lowered seven times, totaling 2750 yuan / ton.

Aniline: in terms of aniline, the domestic aniline market fell in the month. Raw materials: affected by health events and crude oil plummeting, leading to the decline of bulk commodities, Sinopec’s pure benzene fell 2750 yuan / ton to 2600 yuan / ton in the month of listing, with wide fall in cost, weak support for aniline and negative market for aniline

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in March 2020, there are 24 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including 7 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities with an increase are isopropanol (55.64%), methylic acid (20.51%) and ammonium chloride (20.48%). There are 59 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 46 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 52.9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are pure benzene (- 49.82%), crude benzene (- 36.94%) and toluene (- 33.67%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 8.47%.

3、 Future forecast

View of business community: at the end of the month, the listing prices of all suppliers’ factories held steady in April, but the positive boost was weak. The weekly guidance prices of costron and Ryanair showed some signs of bearish, and the post market mentality of the industry was more pessimistic. Good news is hard to find. MDI analysts predict that the MDI market will continue to decline slightly next month, but the agent will be slightly cautious in considering the settlement price of the manufacturer, and the overall decline rate will be slow.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market fell in March. As of the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 2310 yuan / ton, down 2.94% from 2380 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 13.61% year on year.

In March, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market fell slightly. In March, some domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices were restarted. In the near future, the supply of goods in the market was normal, and the domestic price trend declined slightly affected by the increase of supply. In the near future, the market of ammonium nitrate manufacturer’s shipment is general, and the downstream is purchased on demand. In the near future, the trend of downstream nitro compound fertilizer is stable. The domestic downstream civil explosive industry still stops production a lot. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturer’s commencement has increased, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has slightly dropped. Up to now, the negotiation mainstream in Shaanxi is 2100-2400 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2000-2300 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 2200-2600 yuan / ton.

In March, the price of concentrated nitric acid in China rose slightly, up 3.23%. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1550 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 1600 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai offers 1750 yuan / ton. Anhui Aodeli offers 1600 yuan / ton; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offers 1750 yuan / ton. In the near future, the operation of domestic maintenance devices is stable, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the goods in the field are generally transported. In March, the price of nitric acid market rose slightly due to the increase of fertilizer price, and the price of raw material nitric acid rose somewhat, which is a good support for the market of ammonium nitrate, and the price drop of ammonium nitrate Market is limited.

The price of liquid ammonia in the upstream market rose sharply in March, up 14.2% in March. The domestic liquid ammonia market rose sharply, especially in the first half of the year. The price continued to rise, mainly due to the resumption of work in the downstream after the festival and the recovery of demand. The increase in the northern region was once more than 15%. But at the end of the month, the liquid ammonia market peaked, and the price declined slightly. On the one hand, the price of the manufacturer’s early stage continued to rise, and there was a certain amount of speculation. On the other hand, the peak season of spring ploughing has passed, and the downstream has finished preparing goods, and the strength of taking goods has declined, which led to a slight increase in the manufacturer’s liquid ammonia inventory. Therefore, some manufacturers reduced their prices to eliminate inventory. At present, the price of liquid ammonia in the northern region is 3000-3200 yuan / ton. In the whole March, the market price of liquid ammonia has risen sharply. Due to the price rise of liquid ammonia in the upstream market, the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market slightly declined.

In the near future, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is general, and the market demand for ammonium nitrate is normal. In addition, the market price of raw material liquid ammonia drops slightly, which loses certain cost support for the market price of ammonium nitrate. Ammonium nitrate analysts of business association think that the market price of ammonium nitrate may be slightly lower in the later period.

1、 Price trend

In this month, ethylene oxide price has been adjusted twice, among which, the price in East China has been reduced from 7600 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 5800 yuan / ton, in South China from 7800 yuan / ton to 5900 yuan / ton, and in Northeast, central and North China from 7800 yuan / ton to 5800 yuan / ton.

2、 Industrial chain:

This month, ethylene oxide Market moved greatly, ethylene price fell continuously, ethylene glycol was affected by crude oil, the market kept bottoming out, the progress of downstream infrastructure industry was not fully opened, the terminal export was not smooth, resulting in weak basic support of ethylene oxide, the market price reduction rumors were very noisy, finally fell on the 24th of this month, and cut again today (31), the market bearish atmosphere was strong Depressed. According to the current ethylene price calculation, the profit of ethylene oxide still exists. However, due to the wide range of public health events, there are many negative factors in the industry as a whole and lack of upward momentum.

3、 Forecast:

It is expected that the market will remain stable in the later period, but it is still necessary to pay close attention to the price changes of upstream and downstream products and the latest news guidance of the factory.

1、 Price trend

This week, the lead market (2.10-2.14) continued to rise. The average price in the domestic market was 14012.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 14225 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 1.52%.

On March 29, the lead commodity index was 84.56, unchanged from yesterday, down 36.90% from 134.01 (2016-11-29), the highest point in the cycle, and up 13.31% from 74.63, the lowest point on March 19, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market trend analysis

Domestic market: this week’s low price of lunlu lead rebounded, with a weekly increase of more than 4%. This week’s inventory changes little, with a cumulative increase of 175 tons. It is expected that lunlu lead may fall back in the next week. In the spot market, the transaction price this week is 13500-14100 yuan / ton, and the delivery of primary lead this week is good. The market brands of lead are concentrated in Shanghai Jinsha, South China, Henan Jinli, Yuguang and other brands of lead.

Industry: this week, the basic metals are in a state of recovery and stabilization. The main reason is that the Federal Reserve announced unlimited quantitative easing policy, and the major central banks around the world have followed the policy of continuous interest rate reduction and easing. After the G20 meeting, the stimulus policy of introducing more than 5 trillion US dollars into the world was announced. The market gained confidence and left the market short in the week, which made the basic metals recovery.

According to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 12th week of 2020 (3.23-3.27), there are 8 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 13.6% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top 3 commodities are silver (15.02%), gold (7.72%) and copper (6.48%). There are 13 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top three products are antimony (- 4.98%), silicon metal (- 3.51%) and titanium concentrate (- 3.17%). This week’s average was 0.82%.

3、 Future prospects

Next week will enter April, the domestic situation has been further controlled, local governments and central banks continue to offer various stimulus policies to help enterprises to start a good recovery of life and production order, the market is expected to warm up consumption in April, but the overseas market is still relatively serious, the market risk is dependent, the domestic resistance is still stronger than the external market, and the ratio of some products will continue to be repaired.

In this week (3.23-3.27), the price of NBR continued to be weak. According to the monitoring, the price of NBR this week was 14866 yuan / ton, which was stable and weak as a whole.

From the aspect of raw materials, the price of raw materials is low, and the cost is negative in the face of NBR: according to the understanding of the business community, the price of raw materials butadiene is low due to the drop in crude oil price. At the beginning of this week, the price of butadiene is 5845 yuan / ton, and at the end of this week, the price is 5578 yuan / ton, down 4.57% as a whole.

From the perspective of NBR enterprises, the overall operating rate of NBR enterprises is around 70%, the ex factory price of NBR is basically stable, and some of them are not quoted. According to the business association, the NBR unit of Lanzhou Petrochemical Co., Ltd. operates normally with stable ex factory price. At present, n41e reports 14000 yuan / ton and 3305e reports 14500 yuan / ton. Nandi’s NBR unit operates normally with the mainstream price of 15700-16000 yuan / ton in 1052 market.

In terms of the downstream, the overall operating rate of the downstream is still insufficient, the delivery of NBR is not ideal, and the downstream procurement is weak, which has a strong negative effect on NBR.

Outlook for the future

According to the NBR analysts of the business club, the price of raw materials has fallen sharply, and the downstream purchase on demand has formed a negative situation for NBR as a whole. It is expected that the NBR market will continue to weaken in the later stage.

On March 24, the cryolite commodity index was 70.85, down 0.81 points from yesterday, down 30.00% from 101.21 (2011-10-31), and up 6.78% from 66.35, the lowest point on September 5, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the average market price of cryolite in Henan Province on the 24th was 5833.33 yuan / ton, and the current market price trend of cryolite is down. The upstream fluorite price trend is slightly stable temporarily. At present, the average price in the domestic market is 3400 yuan / ton. In the near future, the operation rate of domestic fluorite plant is relatively low, and there is less resumption of construction of in-situ mines and flotation plants, and the supply of fluorite is still in short supply. In the downstream aluminum industry, the recent increase in the processing cost of aluminum bars has stimulated the downstream production and partially supported the aluminum price. The domestic production of electrolytic aluminum continued to grow, the downstream production of aluminum declined year on year, the electrolytic aluminum inventory continued to increase, and the pressure on aluminum price was greater.

According to the cryolite product analyst of the business association, cryolite enterprises are operating normally with sufficient inventory, and the quotation of manufacturers is mainly stable. Environmental protection policies still play an important role. The cryolite market is in order and operation, with specific attention to market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, as of March 20, the average market price of organosilicon DMC in several major areas monitored by the data was around 17000 yuan / ton, which was about 1200 yuan / ton lower than that a week ago (March 13), with a decrease of nearly 7%.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the silicone market fell again this week. This weak market decline started from the end of February. Influenced by international public events, the orders of silicone DMC have been few since the beginning of the year. However, the inventory accumulation of more than two months has put a lot of pressure on some manufacturers. From the beginning of March, the negative operation has been reduced, the quotation and equipment maintenance have been reduced, and some manufacturers are looking for ways to stimulate shipment In order to find a way out, the price is also falling again and again. At present, the stock pressure of manufacturers still exists, and the export is also declining recently. There are many parking enterprises, so it is difficult to balance the overall supply and demand of the market. Up to now, the market comprehensive quotation has been reduced by 300-500 yuan / ton again. The mainstream quotation of organosilicon DMC manufacturers is around 16500-17800 yuan / ton. The lowest quotation of some manufacturers is even more 16000 yuan / ton. The market price has almost dropped to the low level, and the raw material cost is close to negative. It is predicted that the subsequent decline of organosilicon DMC will be limited. We hope the market will recover soon.

Industry chain: upstream silicon metal market: in domestic aspect, the market supply end is still low, the production reduction in Xinjiang is large, and it is difficult to improve the operating rate in March. It is expected that at the end of the month, some silicon plants in Yunnan will start production. Downstream 107 rubber Market: affected by the decline of raw materials, the price of downstream silicone product 107 rubber will be explored. At present, the market pressure is not small, the terminal recovery is slow, and the downstream demand release is insufficient. At present, the market reference price is around 17500-18000 yuan / ton, and the market is weak as a whole.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of business club, at present, the market of organosilicon DMC has fallen to a low point. Under the pressure of cost, it is expected that there will be limited downward space in the future. The domestic market is gradually returning to normal. After the demand for downstream products has been increasing, it is hoped that the organosilicon market will usher in spring as soon as possible.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the current price of activated carbon is 11150 yuan / ton, and the price drops.

Products: the price of domestic activated carbon is stable and weak. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is about 7000-12000 yuan / ton. The domestic activated carbon market orders on demand, and it will take time for the market to recover.

Industry chain: the cost pressure of coconut shell, fruit shell, charcoal and other main raw materials in the upstream of activated carbon is supported, and the demand is acceptable; the cost support of coal-based carbon raw materials is weak. The downstream power, medicine and other demand industries purchase goods according to the single order. The purchase market of activated carbon for air purification and water purification is favorable. The environmental protection policy promotes the activated carbon market. The downstream factories purchase goods according to the demand, and the market transaction is light.

Forecast: the market of activated carbon lacks good support, and it is expected that the short-term market of activated carbon will be dominated by weak operation.

1、 Melamine price trend:

(Figure: P value curve of melamine product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: melamine market fell slightly this week. The operating rate of melamine enterprises has gradually picked up, downstream users purchase on demand, buying gas in general, enterprise inventory is still under pressure, and this week some enterprise prices are down. According to the data of the large scale list of business associations, the average price of melamine enterprises on the 20th was 5433.33 yuan / ton, down 1.21% compared with that at the beginning of the week, and the mainstream price of domestic melamine market on the 20th was around 4800-5600 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of melamine market in Xinjiang is around 4800 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Sichuan is around 5200 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Henan is around 5100 yuan / ton. The main quotation of melamine market in Shandong is around 5400 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in recent (3.9-3.19), the upstream urea price dropped, with a drop of 1.29% in this period. At present, the agricultural demand is weak, the downstream industry is less active in urea procurement, and there is no obvious good support. The downstream procurement is cautious.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are seven commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on March 19, 2020, among which the top three commodities are isopropanol (3.52%), ammonium chloride (2.85%) and dichloromethane (2.62%). There are 20 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 3.4% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling are ox (- 8.00%), propane (- 6.57%), chloroform (- 5.88%). The average price of this day was – 0.54%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to melamine analysts of the business club, it is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be dominated by low-level consolidation and operation, and more attention should be paid to the transaction situation in the mainstream market.