OPEC + extended production reduction agreement is expected to increase. This week, the international crude oil price continued to rise, driving the downstream gasoline and diesel prices to rise steadily. This week’s domestic gasoline price was 5025 yuan / ton, 2.71% higher than last week’s. The domestic diesel price is 4967 yuan / ton, 0.70% higher than that of last week.

OPEC + will hold a production reduction consultation meeting on June 6. The market released favorable expectations of crude oil producers to extend the production reduction agreement, and oil prices rose continuously. It is widely believed that OPEC + is considering extending the implementation period of its 9.7 million B / D production reduction agreement to July or August at this week’s meeting. According to the previous agreement, the scale of production reduction from July to the end of this year will be reduced to 7.7 million barrels / day. Saudi Arabia and Russia have preliminarily reached an agreement to continue to reduce production. With the rising crude oil price, the supporting effect on the refined oil market is more obvious. In the situation of bullish crude oil, the willingness to purchase and store refined oil in the middle and lower reaches increases, further boosting the market price of refined oil.

In recent years, the domestic weather has turned hot, the gasoline consumption is strong, and the downstream replenishment demand is relatively positive; the overall performance of the diesel market is average, the high temperature weather limits the diesel market demand, but the rigid demand industry still has strong support for the market.

At present, the profit margin of refinery oil products is quite considerable. After the middle of April, the operation rate of atmospheric and vacuum distillation reached a high level of 70%, and in the near future, the operation rate of atmospheric and vacuum distillation reached 75%. The supply and demand of refined oil market rose again.

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst with business news agency, believes that although Russia and Saudi Arabia have reached an agreement to extend the production reduction for one month, the situation of production reduction in Iraq and Nigeria is not good, and market concerns are growing. Whether the crude oil price can break through the “floor price” of domestic oil products of $40 / barrel remains variable. It is expected that the domestic oil product market will remain stable next week.

1、 Price trend:

On May 29, crude benzene commodity index was 43.87, unchanged from yesterday, 66.72% lower than 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and 43.65% higher than 30.54, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

Crude oil rose this week. Crude oil production continues to decline, gasoline demand shows signs of recovery, and the overall oil price shows an upward trend. However, the contradiction between the supply and demand of crude oil is still prominent, and the oversupply is still the primary problem restricting the oil price. This week, it was reported that Russia began to reduce production in July, and oil prices were under pressure again. Brent was up $1.53/barrel, or 4.66%, on May 22, while WTI was up $2.59/barrel, or 7.79%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 48.51% and WTI by 41.02%. On July 27, Sinopec’s listing price of pure benzene was increased by 150 yuan / ton to 3500 yuan / ton. Prices rose on Tuesday, supported by positive crude oil and external market conditions.

The crude benzene market has stabilized this week, and the cost pressure in the downstream hydrogenation benzene market remains the same, which suppresses the price of crude benzene. Although the operating rate of hydrogenation benzene has increased to a certain extent, the overall crude benzene inventory is high, there is no demand support, and the price of crude benzene is mainly volatile. As of Friday, the price of crude benzene in Shandong was 2800 yuan / ton, almost the same as last week.

From the perspective of the business community in the aftermarket, it is believed that the crude benzene price is slightly stagnant in the near future when the fundamental influence has not changed greatly. From the perspective of supply and demand, some factors such as small-scale production restriction appear in some areas of coking enterprises in the near future, but the crude benzene supply is relatively stable and the overall inventory is on the high side. The demand of downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises can digest a certain amount of crude benzene, but the cost pressure restricts the price increase of crude benzene In the short term, crude benzene price will keep stable operation, and in the later stage, crude oil price and downstream hydrogenation benzene operation rate will be mainly concerned.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, domestic isopropanol prices fluctuated in May, and fell slightly throughout the month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of isopropanol in China was 11666.67 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 11566.67 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

In May, the domestic isopropanol market price changed a lot, and the whole month saw a small drop in price. In May, the price of isopropanol showed a rapid downward trend after labor day. After a week of short-term reduction, the market price gradually picked up, and the low monthly price appeared a small shock. Up to now, Shandong isopropanol negotiation range is about 11500-11600 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu isopropanol negotiation range is 11500-11700 yuan / ton. The negotiation range of isopropanol in South China is 11700-11800 yuan / ton. As far as the current international situation is concerned, the market demand for disinfectant in foreign countries will continue for some time, and the favorable factors of isopropanol in China mainly come from the export.

In terms of raw materials, the market price of acetone rose, the acetone market in East China pushed up again, the factory inventory and maintenance plan, the market supply was tight again, and there were few stocks in North China, and most of the supply was replenished from East China or even South China, so that the mainstream offers in East China pushed up 200-300 yuan / ton again, and the market offers 8600-8900 yuan / ton. Currently, the price is high, the stock is rare, and the downstream conflicts are obvious. The market price of propylene in Shandong is still down. Up to now, the mainstream market price is about 6400-6500 yuan / ton. The pressure of the manufacturer’s shipment increases and the inventory slows down, so the propylene price is expected to decline in recent days.

3、 Future forecast

According to the isopropanol analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the market price of raw acetone is rising, and the port quotation in East China is sporadically at a high price of 9000 yuan / ton. The current market has a new record in six years. However, the raw material propylene is weak, and the price is expected to decline. In terms of demand, favorable support from foreign trade will continue for some time. Domestic trade enquiries are more frequent, with the focus on wait-and-see, and the goods are very cautious. At present, the atmosphere of isopropanol market is slightly stalemate. On the whole, the probability of isopropanol price reduction in the short term is small, and follow-up attention will be paid to the change of news.

1、 Price trend

This month, EO price adjustment is frequent. For example, in the mainstream East China region, the price has been increased three times, from 6300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 7000 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 11%.

2、 Industrial chain:

Thanks to the continuous increase of crude oil price, the market went up. On January 1, the price of ethylene in the CFR Northeast Asia market was $375.00/t, and on September 29, it was $720 / T. although the increase slowed down, the trend was still strong. In addition, the supply of ethylene in Northeast Asia was tight, which led the downstream industry to recover. The consolidation after the rise of ethylene glycol has brought certain support to the market of ethylene oxide on the basic level. However, due to the maintenance of some ethylene oxide units, the supply side is tight and the price is rising, which plays a driving role in the downstream market. The downstream monomer market is stable after the price rise, and the follow-up situation is still based on rigid demand, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is reported that the overhaul device in North China is planned to be restarted in early July, and that in East China is planned to be overhauled from July to August.

3、 Forecast:

We need to pay attention to the change of raw material price and factory news in a timely manner.

On May 27, WTI crude oil futures market prices in the United States fell sharply, and the settlement price of major contracts was 32.81 yuan / barrel, down $1.54 or 4.5%. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, the settlement price of major contracts was $35.45/barrel, down $1.29 or 3.5%, mainly due to the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventory and tension between China and the US.

The weekly crude oil inventory reports of the American Petroleum Association (API) and the American Energy Information Agency (EIA) were delayed one day due to the impact of Monday’s memorial day of the United States. Coincidentally, an in-depth survey released by the market on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude oil inventory may decline for the third consecutive week last week, and analysts surveyed expect that U.S. crude oil inventory may decrease by about 1.9 million barrels as of the week of May 22. However, the data released by API on Thursday Beijing time showed a significant increase in inventory, breaking the previous optimistic expectations of the market. Market confidence was once frustrated, and oil prices fell sharply. The data released by API showed that the inventory of crude oil, gasoline and distillate oil in the United States increased by 8.7 million barrels in the week ending may 22, while analysts predicted that the inventory of crude oil in the United States would decrease by 1.9 million barrels The oil storage is more than 10 million barrels higher than the previous market expectation.

At the same time, tensions between the United States and China continue to heat up, which also casts a shadow on the market. U.S. President trump said he would soon announce the U.S. response to China’s national security laws in Hong Kong and Macao. In addition, China also said it would take corresponding countermeasures against us actions, which may include sanctions. As the world’s two largest economies, the rising trade friction is likely to further hit the demand for crude oil.

At present, OPEC + production reduction is still the focus of market attention. On May 27, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Salman made a call to reach an agreement on further “close coordination” to limit oil production. It includes a statement: “the two sides agree to further close cooperation on this issue through the energy ministries of the two countries.” But that didn’t seem to give the market much boost, although OPEC agreed to cut its combined oil production by nearly 10 million barrels per day in May and June to deal with the oversupply of crude oil hit by the epidemic. However, from the content of the previous agreement, the restrictions on crude oil output may be relaxed in July, and the share of production reduction may be further reduced. Moreover, this is likely to become a contradiction between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Saudi Arabia’s intention may be to maintain the current level of production reduction, but Russia’s attitude is relatively ambiguous, which also has a certain negative effect on oil prices.

In the view of business cooperatives, the contradiction between supply and demand of crude oil is still prominent, and the problem of excess supply is still the primary problem that plagues the oil market. However, with the reduction of production in oil producing countries and the restart of economy in more countries, the supply and demand of crude oil will tend to a new balance. During this period, oil prices will be accompanied by wide swings. At present, on the one hand, the risk factors of the market are Sino US relations, and more importantly, the resumption of the economy may lead to the recurrence of the epidemic. On the premise that the supply problem has not been completely solved, the market should be careful to prevent the secondary damage of repeated epidemic situation to the oil price.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the caustic soda price continues to be in a weak consolidation operation this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 487.5 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average market price in Shandong was about 482.5 yuan / ton, with the price down 1.03. On May 24, the caustic soda commodity index was 69.42, the same as yesterday, 66.44% lower than 206.87 (2017-11-14), the highest point in the cycle, and 2.65% higher than 67.63, the lowest point on May 10, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: the price of caustic soda is weak this week. At present, 32% ionic membrane alkali: about 420-500 yuan / ton in Shandong market, about 1400-1450 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia market, and about 550-650 yuan / ton in Jiangsu market. In terms of liquid caustic soda, the price of caustic soda in Shandong has returned to stability, the price performance of some markets in the south is stable, and some shipments are weak. At present, the overall price of domestic market is relatively low. Quotation of flake alkali: about 1780-1800 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia market, 2050-2100 yuan / ton in Shandong market, 2120-2150 yuan / ton in East China market and 1550-1600 yuan / ton in Xinjiang market. In terms of flake alkali, the manufacturer’s quotation continues to be firm, and some enterprises are still in maintenance state. However, due to the lack of downstream procurement, some traders gave up their profits in a narrow range.

Industry chain: from the perspective of downstream market, the starting load of downstream alumina and viscose industries is not high, among which, the starting load of viscose fiber industry has a downward trend, while other industries have a flat performance. On the whole, the market relies on the maintenance of enterprises for good support, but the terminal demand support strength is relatively weak, and the good support is insufficient.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 20th week of 2020 (5.18-5.22), there are 2 kinds of commodities rising and falling in the price list of chlor alkali industry, 2 kinds of commodities falling and 1 kind of commodities rising and falling to 0. The main commodities rising were PVC (3.34%), calcium carbide (0.68%); the main commodities falling were light soda ash (- 3.75%), caustic soda (- 1.03%). This week’s average was – 0.15%.

Macro: in April 2020, the BCI of the business community was -0.02, with an average increase of 0.38%, reflecting the contraction of the manufacturing economy compared with the previous month and the stable operation of the economy.

According to the analysts of the business association, the overall demand of domestic caustic soda market is general, the starting load of alumina is low, the price performance of some markets in the south is relatively strong, and the price of caustic soda in Shandong is stable. Because the price of liquid caustic soda is stagnant in the cost line, it is expected that the domestic caustic soda market will still operate stably as a whole, or there will be minor adjustment and operation in some parts.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large list, this week (5.18-22), the domestic adipic acid market changed little compared with last week. This week did not continue the rebound trend of last week, and the price returned to stability. The data monitored by the business club showed that the rise and fall of adipic acid in East China was 0, the market demand was still weak, and the supply was relatively abundant. The quotations of some dealers kept within 100 yuan. Most manufacturers It is still bearish and light inventory operation is the main thing. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the quotation range of adipic acid market is generally 6600-6800 yuan / ton at present.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of market supply, this week’s operating rate of enterprises is relatively high. At present, more than 80% of them are in sufficient supply. The inventory pressure of manufacturers is still high, and the delivery strength is insufficient. At present, although most dealers have returned to normal delivery, the downstream demand has not yet reached the pre epidemic level. Dealers are cautious in taking delivery. Some dealers purchase according to orders and operate in light of inventory. On the whole, the current market has shown a trend of both high enterprise inventory and market inventory. In terms of cost, from the beginning of May to now, pure benzene has rebounded sharply, boosted by peripheral cost factors such as crude oil recovery, and the monitoring of the business community shows that the increase of pure benzene is nearly 15%, but it has not brought fundamental benefits to adipic acid. On the one hand, the delay of cost transmission, on the other hand, the sharp decline of pure benzene in the early stage, and the decline of adipic acid has not fully kept up with the decline of pure benzene At present, adipic acid still has some profit space without rebound, so adipic acid is also more resistant to falling than the upstream pure benzene. The price of adipic acid is mainly affected by the low demand at present.

From the perspective of terminal demand, downstream demand is relatively weak, and it is still in the off-season level. The operating rate of downstream factories has not been significantly improved, and the overall consumption level of plastic products has not been significantly improved, which is difficult to boost the upstream raw material market. In particular, the operating rate of downstream real estate is generally lower than the same period last year, and the sales volume of polyurethane and other insulation materials is also lower than the same period last year. In addition, downstream products such as PA66 have not come out of the dilemma, and the price is still at a low level. As a result, the demand for adipic acid is difficult to fundamentally improve, the inventory is difficult to digest, the manufacturers press more inventory, and dealers generally follow the market and purchase on demand. In addition, in addition to the weak domestic demand, the external demand has also worsened, especially affected by the overseas epidemic, the external demand has decreased, and the pressure on adipic acid export has continued to increase, which does not rule out the possibility that the inventory will continue to rise in the later period.

3、 Future forecast

In the later stage, the business association predicted that the upstream chemical products have recovered due to the impact of crude oil rebound, but the intermediate products such as adipic acid did not enjoy the dividend at the cost end, but increased the burden of enterprises due to the increase of upstream cost. This further reflects the dilemma of current demand, especially the fact that the overseas epidemic has not been effectively controlled, foreign orders have declined sharply, and adipic acid exports have been hit. At present, adipic acid is in a dilemma both at home and abroad. In a comprehensive consideration, adipic acid will still shake and adjust at the bottom in the near future.

According to the data of business agency: on May 18, the weekly average price of domestic industrial grade formic acid was 2066.67 yuan / ton. As of May 22, the weekly average price of domestic industrial grade formic acid was 2016.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.47%. This week, the formic acid market was mainly weak and stable.

2、 Market analysis

Products: this week, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market as a whole showed a weak trend of maintaining stability, with restrictions on foreign trade and import, and prices of some manufacturers slightly reduced. At present, the market has sufficient supply of goods, and the devices are shipped normally. Price: this week, the price of industrial barreled water is generally around 2040 yuan / ton, and the factory price of main industrial purified water of formic acid is about 1775 yuan / ton. As of Friday (May 22), Jinzhou jinhongda Chemical Co., Ltd. has quoted 2000 yuan / ton; Zibo Pulis Chemical Co., Ltd. 1750 yuan / ton; Zhangzhou Sanan Chemical Co., Ltd. 1600 yuan / ton; Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. 1750 yuan / ton; Hangzhou Fengchang Trade Co., Ltd. 85% formic acid industrial barrel price 2300 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the mainstream of liquid ammonia Market of formic acid upstream products is stable, moderate and narrow adjustment, local prices are up and down, and the market demand of liquid ammonia market is acceptable. The domestic caustic soda market fluctuates in a narrow range, and the downstream is mostly purchased on demand. It is expected that the market will fluctuate in a narrow range in the later period. The upstream products generally support the formic acid market, while the demand for leather and pesticide industry of the downstream products does not increase significantly.

3、 Future forecast

According to the formic acid data division of business association, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market as a whole shows a weak trend of maintaining stability. At present, the market supply is fair, the downstream demand does not increase significantly, and the formic acid market is not good enough. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will remain stable and decline in the short term.

On May 19, the average price of formic acid samples was 2016.67 yuan / ton, down 5.47% from yesterday. The price is at a historical low. At present, the formic acid market is weak and stable, and some manufacturers adjust. Jinzhou jinhongda offers 2000 yuan / ton, Zibo Pulis 1750 yuan / ton, Hangzhou Fengchang Trade Co., Ltd. 2300 yuan / ton.

The main manufacturers of formic acid in China have normal operation and sufficient supply in the market, but the price of formic acid is low due to the recent restrictions on the export of goods. The downstream pesticide, leather and other industries are affected by environmental protection and other factors, the unit operation rate is not high, the enthusiasm of receiving goods is general, the pharmaceutical industry purchases on demand, and the upstream cost can still be supported. At present, formic acid is in a market situation where the supply exceeds the demand. Influenced by the market supply-demand relationship, it is estimated that the short-term formic acid price is still weak. (Note: the above prices are for reference only. For details, please contact the merchants for consultation; and the above prices refer to 85% formic acid and the net water price including tax from the warehouse).

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association, today’s comprehensive price in the domestic PC market is 13300.00 yuan / ton, With the introduction of the “one helmet one belt” policy, the PC market has recently seen an increase of 200-600 yuan / ton, 3.1% higher than that of the same period last week, 9.92% higher than that of the beginning of May, and 29.38% lower than that of the same period last year. At present, the supply of PC spot market is sufficient, and the proportion of PC in helmets is very limited, accounting for about 2% of the annual output.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: according to the Ministry of public security, since June 1, 2020, the “one helmet area” security guard operation will be carried out nationwide. The public security traffic control department will strengthen law enforcement management, check and correct according to law. Motorcycle electric bicycle riders do not wear safety helmets and car drivers do not use safety belts, The market of riding safety helmets will see growth. As the raw material of helmet front baffle, the price of PC will rise by 200-600 yuan / ton. Some traders are reluctant to sell. The PC market will undoubtedly usher in a wave of development peak. In a 500g helmet, the consumption of PC is between 100-150g. According to the demand of 100 million helmets, the total consumption of PC will reach 15000 In 2020, the domestic PC output is expected to exceed 1.5 million tons, far exceeding the demand driven by the helmet baffle. In the near future, the supply of domestic PC market is sufficient, while the downstream demand is general, so this action is difficult to reverse the overall situation of the domestic PC industry in the future. At present, the PC price in East China is increasing by 200-300 yuan / ton, and the PC price in South China is increasing by 200-600 yuan / ton 。 The latest price of keschuang PC is 14600 yuan / ton, an increase of 200 yuan / ton; the price of Luxi Chemical PC is 12500 yuan / ton, an increase of 200 yuan / ton; the listing price of lihuayi PC is 12800 yuan / ton, an increase of 600 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the upstream BPA and BPA markets are generally traded. At present, they are not active in purchasing. The downstream factories have little initiative. The traders are able to deliver goods stably. The range reference is around 9650-9700 yuan / ton. The overall wait-and-see atmosphere is strong.

Industry: on May 18, the rubber and plastic index was 570, up 4 points from yesterday, down 46.23% from 1060 (2012-03-14), and up 7.95% from 528, the lowest point on April 6, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

3、 Future forecast

PC analysts of business club believe that: in the short term, the price of PC as the raw material for helmet production is expected to keep rising in the near future. Compared with the mask industry, the technical content of helmet is low, the service life is long, and the market is coming and going fast. In the long run, the domestic PC market still has a weak expectation, reminding everyone to be cautious about investment and not blindly follow the trend. (the above prices are provided by major PC manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business PC analysts for reference only. For more details, please contact relevant manufacturers for consultation)