Trade name: natural rubber (standard I)

Latest price: 13641 yuan / ton

Market analysis: the data monitoring of business agency (100ppi. Com) shows that the current oil price has stabilized after rising, and the global fuel supply is still tight; Following the policy intervention in coal prices last week, the upward momentum of basic raw materials weakened. Since the 19th, natural rubber has mainly weakened, and the market rebounded slightly on the 26th, with a range of about 100-200 yuan / ton. The market said that there are no very prominent influencing factors at present, and today’s small rebound also has an appropriate correction of continuous decline for many days; From the perspective of natural rubber industry, the long and short factors are obvious. From the perspective of supply, the foreign media reported on the 25th that the epidemic situation in beidanian Prefecture of Thailand was severe and the prevention and control was upgraded; Heavy rainfall has blocked rubber cutting activities in Kerala State in southern India. An Indian industry official said that the country’s natural rubber production may be greatly reduced in October and November. China’s domestic production areas will stop cutting in the middle and late of next month, and the support of natural rubber supply side will be strengthened; In terms of import and export, imported rubber has gradually arrived in Hong Kong. The data show that the amount of imported rubber has increased slightly month on month for four consecutive weeks since late September. Next, imported rubber will arrive in Hong Kong one after another, the volume will increase, and the inventory of natural rubber will increase rapidly. In terms of downstream demand, due to the impact of chips, fuel, epidemic situation and many other factors, the demand for cars and tires is weak, which does not play a strong supporting role in rubber.

Future forecast: in the future, we need to pay attention to the macro impact of global monetary policy, the driving role of crude oil and chemicals, the change of the arrival of imported rubber, the change of chip shortage and tight fuel supply, as well as the impact of environmental protection, power restriction and other policies on output. It is expected to show a weak shock trend in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity data monitoring, the titanium dioxide market is basically stable this week, and the domestic titanium dioxide price is 20950 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the titanium dioxide market was basically stable this week. Titanium dioxide enterprises are limited, and the overall market is insufficient. The market demand is relatively light, the downstream enterprises are limited, the operation is poor, the traders are more cautious in taking goods, the wait-and-see mood is more obvious, and they mainly purchase on demand. Up to now, the factory quotation including tax of rutile titanium dioxide in China is 19500-21800 yuan / ton; The ex factory quotation of anatase titanium dioxide including tax is between 17600-19500 yuan / ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the titanium concentrate in Panxi area was stable this week. The titanium ore market in Yunnan is relatively cold, the market inquiry is general, manufacturers mostly deliver early orders, and the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong. Up to now, the tax free quotation of 38 grade titanium ore is about 1600-1650 yuan / ton, that of 46 grade 10 titanium ore is about 2360-2380 yuan / ton, and that of 47 grade 20 ore is about 2500-2550 yuan / ton.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price rose this week, the manufacturer’s inventory was general, and the downstream demand was good. The quotation increased from 883.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 888.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.57%, a year-on-year increase of 123.48% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the sulfuric acid market rose this week, and the sulfuric acid commodity index was 138.26 on October 22.

3、 Future forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts of business society believe that: at present, the quotation of titanium dioxide market is strong, upstream and downstream purchase on demand, and the manufacturers have strong willingness to rise. Internationally, the demand for foreign trade is acceptable and there is no pressure in the short term. In terms of raw materials, titanium concentrate is temporarily stable, sulfuric acid rises, and the cost pressure of titanium dioxide is large. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will be more wait-and-see and consolidation in the short term.

Price trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite remained stable this week. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite was 3733.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3733.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, which was flat as a whole.

Recently, the overall high price of domestic soda ash has stabilized, and the rise of cost has slowed down. This week, the market price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite has remained stable. The market price range of domestic industrial sodium pyrosulfite is 3700-4100 yuan / ton, and most prices are concentrated near 3800 yuan / ton. The enterprise inventory remains low, and the overall supply of sodium pyrosulfite market is still tight. (the above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are not within their scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. Please contact each manufacturer for details).

This week, the price of domestic soda ash increased slightly by 1.43% and the price of sulfur increased by 2.29%. Overall, the rise of upstream raw materials has slowed down, the high cost has gradually stabilized, and the rising trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price will slow down in the future.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the overall rise in the cost of upstream raw materials has slowed down, and the inventory is still low. In the short term, the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to be stable, medium and strong.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic POM market has strengthened recently, and the spot price has increased at a high level. As of October 21, the average offer price of POM injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 19700 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 3.14% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: at present, in the upstream methanol spot market, the northwest olefin factory sells methanol away, the supply of goods increases, the mentality of some production enterprises in the main production area weakens, and the price decreases. Coal continued to rise, cost support continued to strengthen, supply side increased, but downstream demand weakened. Methanol was mainly downward in short-term shock. Poor support. The demand of downstream plate factories was general, the procurement maintained rigid demand, and the formaldehyde market fell.

The upstream formaldehyde is weak, and the cost side support of POM is general. In terms of industry load, there are still some maintenance production lines of polymerization plants that fail to produce, the operating rate is not high, and the market supply has not improved much. There is a tight supply of goods in the site, and there are advantages at the POM supply end. Tianye Chemical M90 quoted a reference price of about 18400 yuan / ton for negotiation. The ex factory reference price of Yuntianhua M90 is about 19300 yuan / ton, which is subject to firm negotiation. Shenhuaning coal mc90 is quoted at a reference price of about 19100 yuan / ton, with cash withdrawal. The reference price of Tianye Chemical is about 19800 yuan / ton. The ex factory reference price of Yuntianhua M90 is about 20000 yuan / ton, which is subject to firm negotiation. The merchant’s inventory position is not high. Try to make a high offer. The downstream feedback on the high price supply after the rise is general.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that: the high level of domestic POM market has risen, the high level of upstream formaldehyde price has been corrected, and the cost support of POM has weakened. The on-site supply is low, and the supply side is good. In terms of demand, the current terminal enterprises just need to receive goods normally, but the delivery and trading of high price goods on the site is poor. It is expected that the POM market may still rise slightly in the short term.

Trade name: lithium iron phosphate

Latest price (October 20): 83250.00 yuan / ton

As of October 20, the average price of domestic high-quality power lithium iron phosphate was 83250.00 yuan / ton. The market price of lithium iron phosphate increased, the focus of negotiation was high, the inventory was normal, the downstream just needed to purchase, and the transaction atmosphere was cautious. The upstream was strong, forming a certain support. At present, the supply side is normal.

Future forecast: it is expected that lithium iron phosphate will be the main player in the market in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of October 19, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 11266 yuan / ton. Compared with October 15 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 12133 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 867 yuan / ton, a decrease of 7.14%.

Last week, the domestic n-butanol market rose broadly. After n-butanol rose to a high level at the weekend, the downstream demand began to weaken. The transaction situation of n-butanol market was general. The downstream East China butyl unit operated at low load, and the downstream butyl users slowed down the purchase of raw materials. There was a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. Entering this week, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong began to operate weakly, and the quotation of n-butanol factories began to be reduced. On the 18th, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was around 11300-11800 yuan / ton, which was reduced by 500-1000 yuan / ton compared with the previous working day. The northwest n-butanol installation started normally, the on-site supply increased, and the n-butanol supply and demand stalemate appeared. On the 19th, The overall center of gravity of n-butanol in Shandong continues to move downward. The ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong is around 10800-11500 yuan / ton, down 300-500 yuan / ton compared with the previous day, with a cumulative decline of 7.14% in two days. At present, as of the 19th, the market size of n-butanol in Shandong is weak.

In terms of index, n-butanol (industrial grade) commodity index was 94.57 on October 18, down 4.34 points from yesterday, down 28.24% from 131.79 points (2021-05-16), and up 216.39% from 29.89 points, the lowest point on November 30, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

In terms of upstream propylene, at present, the domestic propylene market in Shandong is weak as a whole. According to the monitoring data of business society, the reference price of propylene was 9450.50 yuan / ton on October 19. Compared with October 15 (9542 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 92 / ton, a decrease of 0.96%, and an increase of 16.79% compared with October 1 (8092 yuan / ton).

Internationally, on October 18, the international oil price rose and fell. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $81.69/barrel, down US $0.59 or 0.71%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $84.33/barrel, down US $0.53 or 0.62%. U.S. industrial production fell in September, superimposed on the growth expectation of shale oil production, and U.S. commercial crude oil inventory is also expected to continue to grow. In addition, yesterday, the economic data released by the China Bureau of statistics was empty, and the oil price fell under pressure.

Future analysis of n-butanol

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol market in Shandong is relatively cold and the demand performance is relatively weak. Therefore, business analysts believe that in the short term, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong may continue to decline, and more attention should be paid to the change information of raw materials and demand.

This week, the domestic methanol spot market rose first and then fell, and the overall level is still high. This is mainly because the downstream replenishment after the festival supports the market, but some MTO enterprises in the northwest sell methanol away, the supply side increases, and the market situation is “upside down”. According to the monitoring of business agency, from October 8 to 18, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises in Shandong increased from 3800 yuan / ton to 4275 yuan / ton. During the cycle, the price increased by 12.50%, 35.71% month on month and 121.50% year-on-year.

Methanol peaked sharply after strong rise, and the price and market sentiment fluctuated greatly. At the beginning of the week, the upstream factories in the mainland continued to significantly increase their offer, but the transaction volume was poor. The operation of MTO enterprises selling raw material methanol kept the operators afraid of heights and profit taking. Later, with the sharp decline of futures, the market transfer price continued to decline, but the transaction was difficult to improve.

Summary of methanol market prices in various regions as of October 18:

Region, price

Qinghai region 3860 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Shanxi region 3710-3750 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Liaoning region 4150-4200 yuan / ton delivered to the plant

Fujian region 4000 yuan / ton

Lianghu area 4350-4400 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Anhui region 4200-4250 yuan / ton factory acceptance

Henan region Offer reference: 4000-4020 yuan / ton out of tank spot exchange

The prices of products in the methanol industry chain are mixed, the coal price of methanol upstream products is rising sharply, the price of natural gas is stable, and the cost of methanol is strongly supported; Among downstream products, the price of methane chloride in Shandong increased the most compared with last week. Among related products, the price of Shandong ethylene glycol increased the most compared with last week.

Comparison chart of coal / steam coal (upstream raw material) – methanol price trend of business community:

Comparison chart of natural gas (upstream raw material) – methanol price trend of business community:

In terms of external market, as of the closing on October 15, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was US $541.00-542.00/t, up US $11 / T. US Gulf methanol market closed at 153.00-154.00 cents / gallon, down 3 cents / gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 475.00-476.00 euros / ton.

region ., Country, closing price, up and down

Asia CFR Southeast Asia USD 541.00-542.00/t USD 11 / ton

Europe and America American Gulf 153.00-154.00 cents / gallon – 3 cents / gallon

Europe FOB Rotterdam 475.00-476.00 euros / ton 0 euro / ton

If the coal is expected to increase production, the coal price will decline, and the methanol cost support may weaken. From the perspective of fundamentals, there is no obvious expectation of supply and demand. In the absence of unexpected factors, methanol analysts of business society expect that the domestic methanol market will be mainly sorted out in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, as of October 15, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 26666.67 yuan / ton, up 2.56% from the beginning of the week, 3.9% from the beginning of the month and 83.91% from the same period last year

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, as of October 15, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 50666.67 yuan / ton, up 26.14% compared with the beginning of the week, 37.56% compared with the beginning of the month, and 226.83% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

After the national day, the price of refrigerant R22 rose steadily, rising by 2.56% this week and 3.9% in the first half of October, maintaining a high operating state. The mainstream price of raw material hydrofluoric acid rose to 11200-11700 yuan / ton. The quotation of some manufacturers was higher than the market price. At the same time, the market situation of methane chloride also stopped falling and rising. The raw material price was high. Moreover, the commencement of major mainstream manufacturers was still not high, the market supply was tight, and R22 was easy to rise but difficult to fall. By the end of the weekend, the market price of R22 was in the range of 25000-28000 yuan / ton, the price in Shandong was about 27000 yuan / ton, the price in Zhejiang was about 25000-27500 yuan / ton, the price in Hunan was about 27000-28000 yuan / ton, and the price in Jiangsu was about 26000-28000 yuan / ton.

According to the weekly increase and decrease from July 19 to October 10, 2021, R22 has opened the upward channel since August and continues to this day. The increase in September is huge, and the increase has slowed down in October. The increase this week is 2.56%, and the price remains strong.

After the National Day holiday, the price of R134a soared in September, up 26.14% this week and 37.56% in the first half of October. The price quickly rose to more than 50000 yuan, a new high in recent three years. The price of goods holders increased by more than 10000 yuan. Some enterprises closed their offers and stopped reporting. It was difficult to find low prices in the market, and the focus of trading shifted significantly upward. The mainstream price of raw material hydrofluoric acid rose to 11200-11700 yuan / ton, and the quotation of some manufacturers was higher than the market price, while the price of trichloroethylene rose to 20000 yuan. The goods were tight and the price was high, and the cost was under pressure. Although the power restriction policy slowed down, the operation of refrigerant manufacturers was still low, the tight market supply was not significantly improved, the downstream demand was just in demand, and there was a strong wait-and-see mentality. Up to now, the market price of R134a is in the range of 50000-52000 yuan / ton, the price in Zhejiang is about 50000-51000 yuan / ton, the price in Hunan is about 50000-51000 yuan / ton, and the price in Jiangsu is about 50000-51000 yuan / ton. Prices in various places have increased rapidly.

According to the weekly increase and decrease from July 19 to October 10, 2021, the price of R134a has continued to rise since August. Since September, the price jump has been huge. The weekly increase on September 13 was 22.93%, while the increase this week reached 26.14%. The price has rapidly increased to more than 50000 yuan, which is amazing.

The price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid rose this week. Up to now, the mainstream price negotiated by various regions of domestic hydrofluoric acid has risen to 11200-11700 yuan / ton. The quotation of some manufacturers is higher than the market price, and the actual transaction price on the floor has increased. The price of domestic hydrofluoric acid is still rising. Recently, the domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal, and the price trend on the floor has risen.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analysts of business society, the price of raw materials has continued to rise recently, the cost is under pressure, the operating load of refrigerant manufacturers is still low, and the market supply gap is still in. It is expected that under the situation of stable demand, the cost side will be boosted unilaterally, and the prices of refrigerants R22 and R134a will still be raised.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the recent domestic PA66 market has remained strong at a high level, and the spot prices of various brands are high. As of October 14, the ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 41200 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.12% over the average price level at the beginning of the month and 92.52% over the same period last year.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: after the festival, the cost advantage of domestic adipic acid is obvious, and the price rises. In the short term, it is easy to rise but difficult to fall, but the demand has not improved much, and the sustainability of the rise is questionable. Adiponitrile has not improved much. The capacity loss claimed by large international manufacturers in the medium and long term is still affecting the market, and the supply shortage has not improved. Due to the high dependence on imports of adiponitrile, most domestic PA66 production loads are forced to operate at a low level.

The price of raw materials remains high, and the cost side support of PA66 is strong. The operating rate of the industry is affected by the shortage of adiponitrile. Except Zhejiang Huafeng, the operating rate of PA66 enterprises decreases. Recently, the arrival of goods at each port is rare, and the inventory is low. It is difficult for the replenishment speed of imported materials to follow up the domestic gap. In terms of the demand of terminal enterprises, it is still in the traditional peak season. There is a certain demand in the household appliance industry. The seller’s mentality is strong and the offer is mainly high.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the recent high spot price of PA66 remains firm. The raw material side has strengthened at the same time, and the shortage of adiponitrile has not been improved. Due to the lack of raw materials, the overall load of the polymerization plant is low, and the spot supply side is favorable. In terms of demand, the on-site purchase operation is mainly just demand. The buyer’s feedback on the supply of PA66 with high price is general, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. It is expected that PA66 will mainly operate at a high level in the near future.

Trade name: isopropanol

Latest price October 13: 8400 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on October 13, the domestic isopropanol market was mainly stable. At present, the trading atmosphere in the market is cooling, the overall transaction is relatively cold, the confidence of the industry is slightly insufficient, the traders remain on the sidelines, there are few downstream inquiries, and the shipment is slow.

Forecast: isopropanol may decline slightly in the short term