1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5883 yuan / ton on August 5, and the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5783 yuan / ton on August 11. This week, the price of chlorinated paraffin dropped by 1.70%.

2、 Market analysis

Chlorinated paraffin prices fell this week. The price of chlorinated paraffin raw material liquid chlorine and liquid wax decreased, and the cost support was insufficient. The downstream demand for chlorinated paraffins is weak, the trading volume in the field is general, and the downstream is mainly cautious and wait-and-see. This week, the operating rate of chlorinated paraffin enterprises is about 60%. As of August 11, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui is about 5800 yuan / ton, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast is 5000-5500 yuan / ton, and the market quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong is 5850-6000 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw liquid wax, the price of liquid wax fell first and then rose this week. The price of liquid wax began to fall at the beginning of the week following the change of crude oil market, and the market began to strengthen on Wednesday. The on-site transaction is average. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine rose and fell this week, and the overall market was stable. Shandong has a large inventory of liquid chlorine, the price is mainly downward, and the market demand is insufficient.

3、 Future forecast

The chlorinated paraffin analyst of business club believes that the current market demand for chlorinated paraffin is sluggish, the trading atmosphere is poor, and the trading volume on the floor is relatively small. The raw material market weakened, the cost of chlorinated paraffin decreased, and the raw material market rebounded slightly at the weekend. It is expected that the price range of chlorinated paraffins will be dominated by weak and volatile operation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, the price of mixed xylene declined slightly this week. On July 29, the price was 8160 yuan / ton; On Friday (August 5), the price was 8090 yuan / ton, 0.86% lower than last week and 36.2% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

During the week, due to the broad decline of crude oil, the external toluene was weak, and the support of external news was weak, which led to the decline of mixed xylene. However, the demand of downstream PX for mixed xylene is acceptable, the enterprise inventory level is low, and the tight supply limits the decline.

In the external market, the mixed xylene in Asia fell sharply this week. On Thursday (August 4), the price of imported mixed xylene from South Korea was US $962 / T, a year-on-year decrease of US $54 / T, a decrease of 5.31%; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 965 US dollars / ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 54 US dollars / ton, or 5.3%.

In terms of crude oil, the US crude oil and gasoline inventories increased, adding to the weak economic data, the market worried about the slowdown of oil demand, and the crude oil fell broadly in the week. As of August 5, Brent price of this week has dropped by 15.09 USD / barrel or 13.72% compared with last week; WTI fell by 9.61 USD / barrel, or 9.74%.

On the downstream side, in the PX market, the domestic PX price fell sharply this week. On July 29, the price was 9550 yuan / ton, and on Friday (August 5), the price was 9000 yuan / ton, down 5.76% from last week and up 23.29% from the same period last year.

In the ox market, the price of ox in East China fell this week. On Friday (August 5), the price of ox in East China was 8000 yuan / ton, down 3.61% from last week and up 26.98% from the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline in Shandong fell after rising this week. On July 29, the price was 8541 yuan / ton, and on August 5, the price was 8555 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.17% over last week and 10.55% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the oil market is stuck. Due to the weak economic data caused by the interest rate hikes of many countries, the pressure of crude oil decline increases. However, OPEC + has limited production capacity and oil supply is still tight. Crude oil is a long and short game, and the trend is full of uncertainty. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic situation, etc. on crude oil prices.

The demand for downstream PX still exists, and the short-term supply of mixed xylene continues to be tight, supporting the price. In the later period, if the decline of crude oil is suspended, mixed xylene may continue to fluctuate in a narrow range. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline, and the impact of mixed xylene and downstream device dynamics, port inventory and outer disk on mixed xylene price.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 9, the pet water bottle level pet price of this week has been operating in a narrow range, with the current average price of 8980 yuan / ton. The overall market has been operating in a narrow range, the focus of negotiation is stable, the market supply and demand are balanced, and the logistics delivery is smooth at present.

The domestic pet price is operating in a narrow range and weak. This week, the price has been reduced slightly. At present, the market operation rate is normal, the manufacturers are active in shipping, the logistics is smooth, the profit is given away, the market transaction atmosphere is general, the negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, the downstream readiness is general, and the cost is lack of support. At present, the mainstream price is about 8900 yuan / ton. This week, the price has been reduced slightly. In the short term, pet is stable, medium and weak.

Upstream ethylene glycol: the latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on August 4 was 4441.67 yuan / ton, down 1.3% from the previous trading day and 20.21% year-on-year.

Rubber and plastic commodity index: on August 8, the rubber and plastic index was 717 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 32.36% from the highest point 1060 points in the cycle (March 14, 2012), and up 35.80% from the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2011 to now).

Pet analysts of business agency believe that the pet market is expected to operate in a narrow range in the short term. (if you want to know more about the latest market trends of the industrial chain, please pay attention to the official account of the business association to obtain commodity information and master commodity prices).

The price of acetic anhydride fell this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride fell this week. As of August 8, the price of acetic anhydride was 6225 yuan / ton, down 3.86% from 6475 yuan / ton on July 31 last weekend. This week, the price of acetic anhydride fluctuated and fell. The quotation of some acetic anhydride enterprises fell below 6000 yuan / ton. The cost fell and the demand was weak. This week, the market of acetic anhydride fell weakly.

This week, the price of raw material acetic acid fell sharply

It can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid in the business community that the price of acetic acid fell this week. As of August 8, the price of acetic acid was 3400 yuan / ton, down 3.20% from 3512.50 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month; The demand is insufficient, the price of acetic acid drops sharply, the cost of acetic anhydride drops, and the pressure of acetic anhydride drop increases.

This week, methanol prices fell first and then rose

It can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of the business club that the methanol price first fell and then rose this week. As of August 8, the price of methanol was 2546.67 yuan / ton, down 0.33% from 2555 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month. The energy crisis has been alleviated. The price of methanol fell first and then increased. The cost of raw materials for acetic anhydride has decreased. The driving force for acetic anhydride to rise has weakened and the downward pressure remains.

Future outlook

According to the analysis of acetic anhydride data of business club, this week, raw material methanol fell first and then rose, the price of acetic acid fell sharply, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, the price of acetic anhydride fell, and the quotations of some acetic anhydride enterprises fell below 6000 yuan / ton. In general, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased and the demand was weak, and the price of acetic anhydride fell sharply. The demand for cost reduction is insufficient, and the pressure for acetic anhydride to fall is increased. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate slightly in the future.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 5, the average price of domestic industrial grade excellent cyclohexane in this week was 9233.33 yuan / ton. The price of cyclohexane in this week was mainly stable. At present, the operating rate is normal, the logistics is smooth, the transaction atmosphere is general, the negotiation atmosphere is stable, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is about 9100 yuan / ton, the purchasing atmosphere is general, the stable operation is mainly maintained, the negotiation focus is stable, and the price fluctuation range this week is not large.

The average price of domestic industrial grade excellent cyclohexane is 9833.33 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is about 9200 yuan / ton. The overall market supply and demand of cyclohexane is balanced, and the downstream just needs to be purchased. The negotiation focus is stable and the supply side is normal.

Upstream pure benzene: East China: Yangzi Petrochemical offers 8450 yuan / ton; South China: Hainan refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 8450 yuan / ton; Central China: Wuhan ethylene offers 8450 yuan / ton;

Chemical index: on August 5, the chemical index was 978 points, down 3 points from yesterday, down 30.14% from the highest point 1400 points (October 23, 2021) in the cycle, and up 63.55% from the lowest point 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2011 to now)

According to the cyclohexane analyst of business club, it is expected that the cyclohexane market will operate smoothly in the short term. (if you want to obtain more commodity information and master commodity prices, please subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business agency, the domestic potassium sulfate market fell this week, and the spot prices of various brands fell. As of August 4, the average price of domestic potassium sulfate 50 particles was 5200 yuan / ton, up or down -2.80% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

This week, the momentum of the domestic potash fertilizer market continued to be weak. The operating rate of potassium sulfate Mannheim enterprises remained low, and the overall operating rate decreased to 40%. Affected by this, the on-site supply of potassium sulfate is limited, but the downstream consumption is poor. In addition, due to the impact of the previous export policy, the on-site supply pressure is high. In terms of upstream potassium chloride, the arrival of border trade and ports increased this week, and the increase in the supply of goods caused the price decline of both imported and domestic goods. The procurement of downstream enterprises such as potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate was general, which weakened the support for processing potassium sulfate enterprises. At present, the market quotation of potassium sulfate has fallen, and the profit situation of enterprises is poor. In particular, some quotations in Northeast China have broken through the loss line, and there are few new orders. Traders react that the downstream follow-up is slow, and the trading is limited.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Potassium sulfate analysts of business agency believe that the domestic potassium sulfate market fell this week, while the potassium chloride market fell. The cost support of domestic potassium sulfate is weakened, and the supply side is OK, but the follow-up of the demand side is poor, and the superimposed export orders are reduced. It is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price may continue to weaken in the short term due to poor demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, toluene fell violently this month, and the price fell broadly. The price of toluene was 8900 yuan / ton on July 1 and 7640 yuan / ton on July 28, down 14.16% from the beginning of the month; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 31.72%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Crude oil fell broadly this month, coupled with the weakening market interest in Asian American arbitrage, toluene in Asia fell deeply, and the support of external news was weak. Domestically, the downstream market of toluene is generally poor, the demand of the gasoline industry is weak, and the downstream market for high priced toluene is poor. Poor domestic demand has become an important factor to suppress the price of toluene. Under the influence of multiple bad news in the month, toluene fell broadly.

In the external market, the price of toluene in Asia fell sharply this month. On July 28, the price of toluene imported from South Korea was $960 / ton, down $265 / ton, or 21.63%.

In terms of crude oil, there was a long short game in crude oil during the month, and concerns about tight supply remained, but the Federal Reserve and many central banks increased interest rates, intensifying market concerns about economic recession, and crude oil fluctuated widely. As of July 28, Brent fell by $7.67 / barrel, or 6.68%; WTI fell $9.34 / barrel, or 8.83%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China fell continuously this month. At the beginning of the month, the price of domestic goods was 17625 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 15975 yuan / ton, down 9.36% from the beginning of the month and up 5.33% from the same period last year.

In the PX market, domestic PX prices stabilized after falling in the middle of this month. The price was 10000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 9550 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price fell by 4.5% compared with the beginning of the month and increased by 34.51% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the gasoline market in Shandong Province was weak this month, and the price fell violently. The price was 9092 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 8479 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 6.75% from the beginning of the month and up 6.9% from the same period last year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

On the cost side (crude oil), the macro side is still affected by the economy. The interest rate hikes of central banks in many countries bring downward risks to the economy, and the outlook for global commodities is also affected by it; However, the logic of medium and short-term supply and demand fundamentals has not changed, the expectation of supply tightening has not been lifted, and the trend of crude oil is still full of uncertainty. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ production increase decision, US crude oil and refined oil inventory dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.

Crude oil shocks, and the cost side support is loose; Toluene exports have weakened, domestic demand is sluggish, the contradiction between supply and demand has increased, and toluene may continue to decline. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil market, external market trend, toluene device dynamics, port inventory and downstream demand on toluene price.

From July 1 to July 28, 2022, the domestic coal tar production price fluctuated upward. The price at the beginning of the month was 5387.5 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 5537.5 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 2.78%.

On July 27, the coal tar (high temperature) commodity index was 188.62, unchanged from yesterday, down 0.55% from the highest point of 189.66 in the cycle (2022-05-18), and up 300.04% from the lowest point of 47.15 on December 6, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

Changes in the bidding price of coal, coke and oil in Shanxi in July 2022 (unit: yuan / ton)

Region, price on July 1, price on July 28, monthly rise and fall

Linfen, 5370, 5500, +130

Luliang., 5400., 5500., +100

Taiyuan, 5440, 5560, +120

In July 2022, the bidding price of tar in Shanxi Province rose as a whole. Recently, the construction of coking enterprises was low, the overall output of tar fell significantly, the downstream losses were serious, and the market demand was still in stock, supporting the consolidation of high tar prices.

In July, the overall trend of the coal tar market fell first and then rose. The overall trend was dominated. After a slight decline at the beginning of the month, the price continued to rise. At the beginning of the month, the performance of the domestic tar market was mixed. The bidding price in Shanxi fell and led to the weakness of the northwest western region. The bidding price in other regions increased slightly, and some regions were temporarily stable. The overall performance of the domestic coal tar bidding market this month was significantly different from each region, with both ups and downs. The main rule is that Shandong affects Hebei and its surrounding areas, and Shanxi affects the price in the northwest, but on the whole, the price still rises slightly. In terms of supply, coking enterprises have suffered serious losses this month. Up to now, they have reduced their losses by five rounds, with a loss of about 500 yuan / ton. The production restriction of coking enterprises has been increasing. According to the current supply and demand situation of the coke market, it is difficult to improve the sales situation of the downstream steel market in the short term, and the production capacity of coking enterprises will still be in a low state in the short term. Therefore, the output of coal tar as a by-product will also be at a low level in the short term, and the mentality of coke enterprises to be reluctant to sell and support prices is obvious. In the downstream, affected by the high price of raw materials, the performance of the deep processing market is not satisfactory. The production enthusiasm of enterprises is low, and the support for tar demand is limited.

In terms of supply: after the four rounds of raising and lowering of coke prices, the current coking enterprises have suffered serious losses, and the coking enterprises have further increased their efforts to limit production, with most enterprises limiting production by 30-50%. With the strengthening of production restriction, the current overall supply of coke is tightening, and the output of related by-products fell significantly this month.

On the whole, the downstream deep-processing enterprises continue to perform in the doldrums and have strong resistance to high price tar. In the future, the business community believes that the overall tar market is in a weak pattern of supply and demand. Although the supply of the tar market is tight, but the downstream demand is slightly reduced, the tar price is difficult to fluctuate greatly, and the overall trend remains stable and weak.

Relevant information:

According to the National Bureau of statistics, in June 2022, China’s raw coal output was 379.313 million tons, an increase of 15.3% year-on-year; From January to June, the cumulative output was 219.357 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 11.0%. In June 2022, China’s coke output was 41.458 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%; From January to June, the cumulative output was 239.503 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5%.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of July 30, the average price of pet water bottle manufacturers was 8890.00 yuan / ton. In July, the pet market price operated smoothly. At present, the mainstream price range is 9000 yuan / ton, the market supply and demand is balanced, and the supply side is normal.

In the first ten days of June, the domestic pet price operated weakly in a narrow range, and the price decreased slightly this week. At present, the market operating rate is normal, the manufacturers’ shipment is positive, the logistics is smooth, the profit is given away, the market transaction atmosphere is general, the negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, the willingness of the downstream to prepare goods is general, and the cost is lack of support. At present, the mainstream price is about 9500 yuan / ton. This week, the price decreased slightly, and pet operates stably, moderately and weakly in the short term.

In the middle of June, the domestic pet price operated in a narrow range and weak, and the price decreased slightly this week. At present, the market operating rate is normal, the manufacturers’ shipment is positive, the logistics is smooth, the profit is given away, the market transaction atmosphere is general, the negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, the willingness of downstream goods preparation is general, and the cost is lack of support. At present, the mainstream price is about 9500 yuan / ton, which was reduced slightly this week, and pet operates stably, moderately and weak in the short term.

In late June, the domestic pet price was in a narrow range and weak operation, and the price was slightly reduced this week. At present, the market operating rate is normal, the manufacturers’ shipment is positive, the logistics is smooth, the profit is given away, the market transaction atmosphere is general, the negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, the willingness of downstream goods preparation is general, and the cost is lack of support. At present, the mainstream price is about 9500 yuan / ton, which was slightly reduced this week, and pet is stable, medium and weak in the short term. The latest quotation of the enterprise: Shanghai quyi Industrial Co., Ltd. 9150 yuan / ton, Shanghai Hongqi Plastic Technology Co., Ltd. 9800 yuan / ton, Jiangsu Sanfangxiang Group Co., Ltd. 9200 yuan / ton. Upstream ethylene glycol, ethylene glycol in the Asian market closed at $528 / ton in CFR China on July 22, unchanged from the previous trading day and down $3.7 / ton from last week.

Rubber and plastic commodity index: on August 1, the rubber and plastic index was 722 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 31.89% from the peak of 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and up 36.74% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

Pet analysts of business agency believe that the pet market is expected to run smoothly in August. (if you want to know more about the latest market trends of the industrial chain, please pay attention to the official account of the business club to obtain commodity information and master commodity prices).

According to the bulk data monitoring of business agency, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong rose first and then fell in July. At the beginning of the month, the price of the sample enterprises of the business club was 10528.57 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price of the sample enterprises was 9375.71 yuan / ton, a decrease of 7.53%. The price increased by 4.26% over the same period last year.

styrene

In July, the market price of styrene fluctuated and fell. It can be seen from the above figure that the price of styrene rose slightly in the first week of the past month, and then fell for three consecutive weeks. The lowest price of styrene in July was on July 27, with a price of 9642.86 yuan / ton. The highest price was on July 6, with a price of 10642.86 yuan / ton, with a maximum decrease of 9.40%. In July, there were many restart of maintenance devices in domestic styrene factories, with sufficient spot inventory, and the downstream demand was less than the styrene supply increment. The weak supply and demand side of styrene suppressed the upward space of styrene. Styrene prices generally showed a downward trend.

In terms of raw materials and crude oil, there was a long short game in crude oil during the month, and concerns about tight supply remained. However, the Federal Reserve and central banks in many countries raised interest rates, intensifying market concerns about economic recession, and crude oil fluctuated widely. As of July 28, Brent fell by $7.67 / barrel, or 6.68%; WTI fell $9.34 / barrel, or 8.83%. The price of pure benzene fell in July. Due to the large number of downstream units put into production in the early stage, and the scale of pure benzene only increased slightly, the continuous supply of pure benzene was tight, domestic trade shipments decreased, and the high-level imports superimposed on the outer plate decreased, and the ports maintained a de stocking state during the month. However, due to the continuous broad decline of crude oil and the significant decline of pure benzene in the external market, the support of external news was weak. In addition, the downstream load reduction, shutdown and maintenance increased, the demand follow-up was poor, and pure benzene was under pressure.

Downstream, in July, the three downstream styrene rose or fell. The domestic PS market weakened in July. The average price of PS ordinary materials at the beginning of this month was 11416 yuan / ton, and the average price of PS ordinary materials at the end of the month was 11283 yuan / ton, with the price falling by 1.17% and rising by 2.89% compared with the same period of the year.

In July, the EPS market was volatile and consolidated. At the beginning of the month, the price of the sample enterprises of the business community was 11425.00 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price of the sample enterprises was 11400.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.20%. In terms of EPS, the epidemic control in East China is weakened, the production situation of domestic downstream factories is acceptable, and the market is relatively stable.

In July, the domestic ABS market fell, and the spot prices of various brands fell by a large margin. As of July 29, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offer was about 12050 yuan / ton, up or down -8.37% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month. In July, the upstream three materials of ABS cost side showed a poor trend, and ABS cost side support weakened. In the macro aspect, previously, the international crude oil was affected by macro inflation factors such as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, and the price volatility intensified, which was bad for the oil chemical industry chain. In terms of industry load, although the current operating rate of ABS enterprises is forced to fall, the industry load is still high. The on-site supply is still abundant, and the decline of industry load has limited support for the supply side. The current season is in the off-season of the industry, especially the main downstream household appliances and other industries lack of output, and the on-site demand is weak. Merchants cut prices and take orders, and the offer follows the market. At the end of the month, midstream traders have certain receiving operations, and some low-end ex factory offers have been consumed, temporarily raising the spot price.

At present, the domestic supply of styrene continues to increase, and the downstream demand is less than the supply increment of styrene. The weak supply and demand side of styrene suppresses the upward space of styrene. Styrene is likely to follow the trend of crude oil, and the styrene market is expected to fall in the short term.