According to the data monitored by the business community, as of December 19, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 5500.00 yuan/ton, which was higher than that of the same period last week. The overall DMF market price rose 1.85%, maintaining a strong operation in the short term.

The domestic DMF price trend is relatively strong. At present, the mainstream price range is 5500.00 yuan/ton. The overall DMF market price has risen 1.85%. The operating rate is stable, the readiness of goods is poor, the logistics operation is slow, and the manufacturers give up profits and take orders.

Chemical commodity index: On December 18, the chemical index was 930 points, unchanged from yesterday, 33.57% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and 55.52% higher than the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

The DMF analyst of Business Agency believes that the DMF market is expected to run strongly next week.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the PP (wiredrawing) market in 2022 started to rise at 8130 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, and began to fall at a high level in March. As of December 18, the PP price was 7941.67 yuan/ton, down 2.32% for the whole year, with the overall trend rising first and then declining.

The PP market trend in 2022 is mainly divided into four stages:

The first stage: rapid expansion stage. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of PP wire drawing material was 8130 yuan/ton on January 1, and reached an annual high of 9360 yuan/ton as of March 9, with a range increase of 15.13%. During the period, the demand for goods preparation before the festival at the beginning of the year was met. Although the downstream enterprises’ work resumption and shipment after the Spring Festival were slowly released due to the impact of health events, the downstream enterprises’ demand for support was solid. In addition, at the end of last year, the coal falling market ended in January and the direct upstream propylene strengthened, so the polypropylene fundamental benefit was superimposed. In addition, the uncertainty of European situation in March is still strong, the market’s expectation of future energy supply interruption is further strengthened, the petrochemical industry chain continues to rise strongly, and the price position of polypropylene is rising rapidly due to various favorable factors.

The second stage: high shock stage. According to the monitoring of the business community, the average price of PP wire drawing material from 9360 yuan/ton on March 9 to 8941 yuan/ton on June 9 was high and volatile, with a range drop of 4.47%. At this stage, the divergence of the international market on the crude oil market caused sharp price fluctuations, the petrochemical industry chain was not smooth, and the direct upstream propylene gradually weakened. The purchase follow-up of PP downstream enterprises slowed down, and buyers were more resistant to high price goods. The merchants have a general mentality, and the offer follows the market. The smoothness of freight transport in some regions is not ideal, and the market gradually returns to the dominant role of fundamental game, but the overall position of PP price in the second quarter is still strong at a high position.

The third stage: off-season falling stage. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of August 22, the price of PP wire drawing material fell to a stage low of 7983.33 yuan/ton, 14.71% lower than 8941 yuan/ton in the first ten days of June. During this period, the trend of crude oil was weak due to the impact of macro inflation such as interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve, propylene fell due to the weakness of downstream industrial chain, and PP cost support weakened. The consumption of terminal enterprises was at the off-season level, the operating rate decreased, and the PP inventory position reached a high level year on year. The petrochemical plant and the traders took orders for the delivery of profits, mainly for stock removal, resulting in a large drop in the price of PP in the three stages.

The fourth stage: shock adjustment stage. According to the monitoring of the business community, the PP (wire drawing) price was 7941.67 yuan/ton as of December 18, down 0.52% from 7983 yuan/ton on August 22. At this stage, the main fulcrum is the traditional peak demand season of “golden nine and silver ten”. Seasonal digestion and inventory operations have boosted the market from September to early October. However, with the end of the stock boom, the price increase gradually gave up. Looking back on the demand in the peak season of this year, its performance was not as good as that of previous years, and the pattern of PP weakening was not improved subsequently. In addition, the product market of major downstream enterprises such as plastic knitting and BOPP was poor, and the spot price of PP had fallen below the 8000 yuan/ton mark by the end of the year.

Overall, the PP market trend in 2022 is mainly affected by the following aspects:

Long term loose expectation of supply due to rapid expansion of industrial capacity

In recent years, China’s polypropylene industry has been in the big cycle of capacity expansion. Since 2018, the domestic average annual capacity growth rate has been 10.27%. Under the background of rapid growth of domestic total capacity, the pressure on the supply side is gradually increasing, and the price level is difficult to rise or fall.

According to the business community, the distribution of time points for the production of new capacity in 2022 is relatively average. In the first half of the year, Zhejiang Petrochemical’s third and fourth line oil made PP plants with a total annual output of 900000 tons were put into production in January and March respectively. The 10 t/a unit of Daqing Haiding was completed in February, and the process of producing PP from propylene was adopted. In addition, Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Phase II, Weifang Comfortable and Tianjin Bohai Chemical all have 300000 t/a units put into production. In the second half of the year, except that Ningbo Daxie (300000 t/a) and Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase II (600000 t/a) were put into production in September, other units are expected to be put into production successively in November and December. As of October, 2.8 million tons of new PP had been put into production, and the total domestic PP production capacity reached 34.87 million tons. If the capacity of six new projects such as Sinochem Hongrun is realized on time, the total new PP capacity will reach 5.4 million tons/year this year. In the long run, the expectation of supply easing will not change, and the pressure on suppliers will increase significantly.

Consumption is restricted by many parties and demand side lags behind

The downstream of polypropylene is mainly concentrated in plastic knitting. In 2022, plastic knitting will account for 32.5% of the overall consumption of polypropylene, and the main application fields are plastic knitting, net rope, fishing net, etc. However, the low technical threshold of the plastic knitting industry and the low profit of the enterprise have restricted the development of the industry. Although the downstream consumption of wire drawing increased by 0.94% this year, its follow-up is relatively lagging in the face of the rapid expansion of polypropylene production capacity.

In addition, various downstream polypropylene industries, including plastic knitting industry, were affected by imported inflation to varying degrees this year, resulting in high cost pressure and low profits, which restricted the orders of enterprises. Due to the decline of the general consumption index of daily necessities and fuel vehicles in 2022, the consumption of polypropylene decreased. Compared with last year’s consumption, low melt copolymerization decreased by 0.51%, homopolymer injection molding decreased by 0.28%, high melt copolymerization decreased by 0.36%, and medium melt copolymerization decreased by 0.01%. It will take some time to tap the demand for polypropylene downstream industry in the domestic market.

The polypropylene market is dragged down by the increased loss of raw propylene industry

According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 17, the average spot price of domestic propylene was 7608.60 yuan/ton, up 0.79% from 7548 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. It rose first and then fell, with the decline concentrated in the third quarter. The supply and demand of propylene continued to grow, the demand follow-up was relatively weak, and the price of raw materials remained high, resulting in a continuous decline in the profitability of the industrial chain. During the year, the propylene market was highly competitive, and the industry suffered more losses. The support for PP price gradually weakened throughout the year.

Future market forecast: Polypropylene analysts from the business community believe that the PP industry will expand significantly in 2022. If all new production lines are put into production on time at the end of the year, it will be difficult for the terminal enterprises to follow up the demand for the time being. By then, the staged mismatch of production and marketing will be deepened, and the pressure on the supply side will inevitably have a peak. The current macro inflationary economic environment remains unchanged, and the profits of petrochemical enterprises have shrunk due to its impact. The overall support of the cost side for PP has weakened, and the market returns to the basic guidance of the supply and demand game. To sum up the influencing factors, the current PP industry chain is full of empty space, the mentality of practitioners is not strong, downstream activities tend to be conservative, and the market momentum is general. It is expected that the PP price will fluctuate in a narrow range, mainly for consolidation and operation.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic spandex market has been weak since December. As of December 15, the average market price was 35500 yuan/ton, down 3.27%% from the beginning of the month and 50.83% year on year. Spandex manufacturers adjust their prices appropriately, making small profits but quick turnover.

Current mainstream price statistics of polyurethane fiber market (unit: yuan/ton)

20D./ 30D./ 40D

Zhejiang./36000-42000./34000-38000./32000-35500

Shandong./36000-42000./34000-38000./32000-36000

Fujian./36000-46000./34000-40000./32000-38000

Jiangsu./36000-42000./34000-38000./32000-35500

PTMEG industry started to fall below 70%. The factory mainly keeps the price, the inventory pressure is fair, and the interest giving intention is temporarily limited, of which (1800 molecular weight) is temporarily assessed as 18500-19000 yuan/ton through market negotiation. The pure MDI market is stable, traders are reluctant to sell and bullish, and the market reference is 16200-16500 yuan/ton T/T barreled self lifting.

Downstream customers purchase conservatively. Most of them have the mentality of “buying up but not buying down”. The demand of the terminal market is flat, and the actual transaction receipt is discussed in detail. The order volume of textile enterprises this year is also far lower than that of the same period in previous years, and the demand has not been centralized. At present, the operating rate of circular machine industry is around 40%, and that of warp knitting industry is 60% to 70%.

Analysts from the business community believe that at present, the cost side support is maintained, but the downstream end customers are not very enthusiastic about taking goods, and they are resistant to the high price supply, focusing on just need. It is expected that the spandex market will be mainly stable in the short term.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic POM market has been reorganized and operated, and the overall price performance has fluctuated. According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of December 12, the average ex factory price of domestic POM was 13933.33 yuan/ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: the formaldehyde market in Shandong Province is not good recently, as can be seen from the figure below, the recent decline in formaldehyde market is mainly due to the following. As of December 12, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1280-1380 yuan/ton. Last week, the construction of downstream factories continued to decline, the demand was significantly weakened, the formaldehyde market turnover was light, the inventory was accumulated, and the market was weak and fell.

In terms of supply: Recently, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has remained at a high level, and the current industry load is generally higher than before, approaching 95%. Imported materials are also abundant, and the price is lower. In terms of processing profit, the margin of enterprises rose by a narrow margin, with the gross profit level of about 2500 yuan per ton, which is fairly good.

Demand: the load of POM industry rose last week, and the market supply was abundant. The mentality of manufacturers and traders is supported by the firm factory price, but the recent demand is weak, and there is much room for profit in the on-site shipment negotiation. The enthusiasm of terminal enterprises to prepare goods is average, and the demand follow-up is slightly lagging behind.

Future market forecast

In the first ten days of December, the POM market was in a stalemate. The load of domestic polymerization plants is almost full, and the overall supply is abundant. The factory price of domestic materials is deadlocked, the pressure on inventory is fair, and the demand is relatively weak. Downstream enterprises mainly digest inventory, and pick up goods mostly in small pieces. The market supply and demand game is expected to turn POM market into weak operation due to weak demand in the short term.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market fell from 6233.33 yuan/ton at the weekend to 6216.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, down 0.27%. A year-on-year decrease of 13.26%. On December 11, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 31.56, unchanged from yesterday, down 70.11% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and up 4.78% from the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers fell this week.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the propylene market of isobutyraldehyde upstream raw material market fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 7710.60 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7434.60 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 3.58%. The upstream raw material market price fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of isobutyraldehyde was negatively affected. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol was adjusted at a low level, with the price of 8966.67 yuan/ton. The market of neopentyl glycol was consolidated at a low level, and the downstream demand was general, which had a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future market forecast

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in mid and late December may rise slightly. The upstream propylene market stopped falling to maintain stability, and cost support increased. The market price of neopentyl glycol in the downstream was adjusted at a low level, and the purchasing enthusiasm in the downstream was general. The isobutyraldehyde analysts from the business community believe that the isobutyraldehyde market may rise slightly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects in the short-term isobutyraldehyde market.

1、 Price data

According to the data from the bulk list of business cooperatives, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners was weak and volatile this week. On December 11, the average price of Shandong market was 3459.00 yuan/ton, down 0.14% from 3464.00 yuan/ton on December 5.

On December 11, the petroleum coke commodity index was 269.03, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.17% from the highest point 408.70 (2022-05-11) in the cycle, and up 302.20% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of petroleum coke in refineries rose and fell with each other. The local refining enterprises shipped well. At present, the logistics in many places across the country has been restored, and the petroleum coke market is in sufficient supply. Downstream companies have begun to stock up on demand.

Upstream: The international crude oil price fell sharply, and the international crude oil price fell to the lowest level within the year. Because some economic data in the United States exceeded expectations, the possibility of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate increase still exists, which suppressed the benefits of OPEC+production reduction and Western sanctions against Russia. The unexpected growth of the US ISM non manufacturing index in November, released on Monday, reflects that the domestic economy is still resilient. The continued economic boom has triggered market concerns about the Federal Reserve’s transition from “dove” to “eagle”, which may disappoint the Federal Reserve’s previous desire to slow down interest rate hikes. The market provided the basis for the Federal Reserve to curb inflation and maintain the monetary tightening path, which affected the crude oil market to decline significantly. The overall global economy is weak, the prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic, and the economic weakness depresses oil prices.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke was basically stable this week; The price of metal silicon market declines; The downstream electrolytic aluminum price fluctuated and fell. As of December 11, the price was 19270.00 yuan/ton; At present, downstream carbon enterprises are under great financial pressure, mainly purchasing on demand.

The oil coke analysts of the business agency believe that: the international crude oil has dropped sharply this week, and the cost support of oil coke is limited; At present, the logistics in many places across the country has been restored, and the downstream enterprises are highly motivated to stock up. However, the petroleum coke market is currently in sufficient supply, and the downstream has an obvious intention to depress the price. It is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke will be mainly adjusted in the near future.

This week (12.5-12.9), the overall domestic dimethyl ether market declined slightly, and the price in Henan was temporarily stable. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 4620 yuan/ton on December 5, and 4620 yuan/ton on December 9. There was no rise or fall in the week, up 17.33% compared with the same period last year.

As of December 9, the market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions in China are as follows:

Regional/mainstream quotation

Jiangxi region./4570 yuan/ton

Hebei region./4500 yuan/ton

Henan Province./4250-4620 yuan/ton

This week, the overall transaction focus of the domestic dimethyl ether market moved downward. Although the market inventory position, the downstream demand followed slowly. At the same time, the crude oil price fell several times to a new low in the year, which depressed the mentality of the industry. Upstream shipment was the first, and the focus of individual enterprises’ negotiations was lowered. The market in Henan is relatively strong, the offer of enterprises is stable, and the actual transaction price is loose.

The main reason for the weak market of raw material methanol is supply and demand. The operating rate of the production enterprises has increased, while the source of imported goods continues to arrive at the port, and the supply is abundant. However, the existing demand has not been significantly boosted. Liquefied gas, a related product, rebounded after falling, but the crude oil continued to fall in the future market, resulting in insufficient upward momentum. The market stopped rising and stabilized, increasing resistance to continue rising.

In general, the dimethyl ether market is weak as a whole. Although the supply side remains stable, the cost side and demand side drag significantly. It is expected that the methyl ether market will remain weak next Tuesday.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index on November 29 was 109.26, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.40% from the peak of 142.64 (2021-11-01) in the cycle, and up 29.58%% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Spot goods: The monitoring data of the business community showed that the domestic solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market in the second half of November (16-29) remained stable after a slight increase, and the main report was 2021.25 yuan/ton in the second half of November. With the rapid cooling of the weather and the violent impact of recent public health events in many places, the demand for water treatment pharmaceutical products has decreased sharply. The business of water treatment enterprises in Gongyi, Henan is more difficult than in previous years, with limited transportation and weak demand; The market of raw material hydrochloric acid rose, but due to the sufficient inventory of manufacturers, the recent price change of raw materials had little impact on it. In the short term, the polyaluminum chloride market is mainly stable, supplemented by small fluctuations.

Raw hydrochloric acid: According to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic hydrochloric acid market in the second half of November (16-29) rose from 163.33 yuan/ton to about 198 yuan/ton. From the perspective of manufacturers, the domestic hydrochloric acid market rose slightly this month, and downstream demand increased. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream liquid chlorine market was consolidated at a low level, with average cost support; Downstream market rose slightly, and downstream manufacturers became more active in purchasing hydrochloric acid. According to the analysis, the recent market of hydrochloric acid may increase slightly.

LNG for production. According to the data of the business society, the price of domestic LNG fell by 6.93% in the second half of November (16-29): the market price of LNG was about 4414 yuan/ton on November 21, and the average market price was 4108 yuan/ton on November 25. Recently, due to the weakening of cost support, on-site supply exceeds demand, terminal demand release is limited, and the LNG market continues to decline. The new raw gas auction is about to start, and the industry is mainly cautious. It is expected that the LNG market will consolidate and operate in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in cost side and downstream demand.

Future forecast: The recent public health events in many places across the country have had a strong impact, sealed and controlled management, the economy is expected to decline, the demand is not as good as in previous years, and the water treatment market in 2022 is not as good as the same period last year. The light snow has passed, the weather is cold, the demand for downstream construction continues to be weak, the inventory is sufficient, and the cost of raw materials has risen, but the purchasing enthusiasm is not high in the near future. As the raw material market continues to rise, the manufacturer’s raw material inventory is exhausted, and the purchase cost rises, the future market will rise with it. It is expected that the polyaluminum chloride market will continue to fluctuate steadily, moderately and slightly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, toluene continued its downward trend this week, with a wider decline. The price was 7230 yuan/ton on November 25 and 6640 yuan/ton on Friday (December 2), down 8.16% from last week; 10.12% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Due to the weak trend of crude oil, combined with poor domestic demand for toluene, the market discussion was light, and the industry was bearish about the future market, and the price continued to decline last week.

In terms of external markets, the price of toluene in Asia fell this week. On Thursday (December 1), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was 777 US dollars/ton, down 67 US dollars/ton year on year, or 7.94%.

In terms of crude oil, concerns about the risk of global economic recession remain, and oil demand is under pressure. However, the OPEC+production reduction rumors and the news that the US crude oil inventory fell more than expected brought good news, and the oil price rebounded after falling in the week. As of December 2, Brent price this week rose by 1.94 dollars/barrel, or 2.32%, compared with last week; WTI rose by 3.7 dollars/barrel, or 4.85%.

Downstream: In terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China fell this week. On November 25, it was 17500 yuan/ton, and on December 2, it was 17233 yuan/ton, down 1.52% from last week and up 19.88% from the same period last year.

In terms of PX, domestic PX prices fell this week. On November 25, the price was 8600 yuan/ton, and on December 2, the price was 8300 yuan/ton, down 3.49% from last week and up 23.88% from the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, this week’s gasoline continued its downward trend. The price was 8082 yuan/ton on November 25 and 7836 yuan/ton on December 2, down 3.04% from last week and 0.64% from the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

In terms of crude oil, major oil producing countries decided to maintain the established production reduction target, and the oil price was somewhat suppressed. Under the background of the risk of global economic recession, energy demand is depressed; However, the supply side is still tight, and the short-term market will maintain a volatile pattern. We will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest OPEC+production policy, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

The market fundamentals are poor, and the short-term trend of crude oil is weak. It is expected that toluene will be dominated by weak operation. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics and downstream demand on prices.

1、 Price trend

The price of aniline rose slightly this week, according to the data from the bulk list of business cooperatives. On November 25, the price was 10350 yuan/ton, and on December 2, the price was 10438 yuan/ton, 0.85% higher than last week and 13.04% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

On the cost side, pure benzene: the fundamentals of pure benzene are not good, and the supply side continues to increase due to the accumulation of stocks in ports in East China; Downstream market is generally weak, and just need to buy. The trend of superimposed crude oil is weak, and the cost support is poor. The price of pure benzene fell due to multiple negative pressures. After the fall of pure benzene, the downstream buying recovered, and prices rebounded slightly in the coming weekend. On Friday (December 2), the price of pure benzene was 6559 yuan/ton, 3.32% lower than last week and 3.95% higher than the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The price of domestic nitric acid rose this week. The price was 2400 yuan/ton on November 25 and 2433 yuan/ton on December 2. The price rose 1.39% last week, 3.55% higher than the same period last year.

The operating rate of some plants in North China decreased slightly. In addition, under the influence of public health events, logistics and transportation were limited, and the supply of aniline in the market decreased. The price of aniline is at a low level, and the purchase enthusiasm of the downstream is fair, and the factory shipment is normal within the week. Fundamentals recovered and prices rebounded slightly.

3、 Future market expectation

General cost support; The downstream is in the low demand season, and the overall follow-up is limited. At present, the supply and demand of aniline market is temporarily stable, the short-term trend is relatively stable, and the rising trend is limited. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, the dynamics of aniline device and the downstream picking mood.