This week (11.14-18), the domestic adipic acid market continued to decline. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 18, the decline this week was 2.37%. At present, the adipic acid market price range is 9700-9900 yuan/ton. The main reasons for the decline: the upstream raw material pure benzene continued to be weak, the supply pressure remained and the demand was sluggish.

Industrial chain

The above figure shows that the adipic acid industry chain is weak as a whole this week, with the whole line declining. Adipic acid and the downstream declined strongly, especially the downstream PA66 dropped nearly 3% in the week.

Cost side: pure benzene continued to decline

This week, pure benzene continued its downward trend. Since the middle of October, pure benzene has been falling continuously. This week’s decline was 0.59%, slightly narrower than last week’s 2%. On the one hand, the market is still sluggish. However, the signs of stopping the decline are gradually emerging, mainly due to the decline of port inventory in East China and the strong performance of downstream styrene export. The shipment of pure benzene increased. The supply and demand fundamentals improved slightly. However, the situation of oversupply has not been reversed. Near the weekend, the price of pure benzene in East China was 6850-6950 yuan/ton.

It can be seen from the price comparison chart of pure benzene adipic acid above that the two are positively correlated and have a highly consistent trend. However, the curve opening shrinks in the near future, mainly because the decline of adipic acid is too strong, and the decline of pure benzene is restrained.

Supply side: Start up and stabilize the accumulated warehouse of the manufacturer

In terms of market supply: in terms of devices, the overall operating rate of adipic acid was flat this week, about 60%. Previously, Xinjiang Tianli devices resumed operation and Taihua increased its load, releasing supply; However, last week, Shenma entered the maintenance period at the beginning of the month for a set of devices. This week, Haili maintained a set of devices to stabilize the supply increase. Other units have not changed much, and the supply has not changed much, but the manufacturer is still in the stage of destocking.

Demand side: weak downstream demand

The downstream performance of adipic acid is weak, the market is weak, and the early inventory is mainly digested. The downstream factories are cautious in taking the goods, and sporadic orders need to be supplemented to ensure the normal start-up demand. Take PA66 as an example. According to the monitoring of the business community, PA66 rose or dropped by 2.97% this week. The downstream still resisted the high price supply, and the shipment speed slowed down. At the weekend, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang was 24500-25000 yuan/ton.

Future outlook

The business community believes that, on the cost side, crude oil shocks and declines, pure benzene continues to be weak, and the cost side cannot benefit in the short term. There are too many maintenance devices at the supply side, and the market continues to go out of stock, so the supply pressure may be relieved in the future. The demand side is relatively weak, and the supply and demand game will continue. Considering comprehensively, adipic acid may maintain a weak adjustment pattern. In the later stage, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the manufacturer’s commencement and the upstream pure benzene price trend.

The price of phthalic anhydride in the domestic market declined. As of the 22nd, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8987.5 yuan/ton, down 1.78% from last week’s price. The phthalic anhydride market continued to decline.

The market of phthalic anhydride declined, and the main influencing factors are as follows:

Supply side: sufficient supply of phthalic anhydride after unit restart

The supply of phthalic anhydride increased. Some domestic overhaul devices were restarted. Anhui Tongling Neighborhood phthalic anhydride began to ship normally. The 100000 ton phthalic anhydride device of Xinyang Group operated stably. Affected by the restart of the device, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate rose to about 60%. The domestic phthalic anhydride production capacity was seriously overcapacity, the phthalic anhydride supply was sufficient, and the market price fell.

Cost end: raw orthobenzene remains low

The price of domestic ortho benzene remained low. As of the 22nd, the price of ortho benzene was 9000 yuan/ton, down 6.25% from the middle of October. Some units in the plant are still under repair. According to the manufacturer, the supply of raw materials for reaction is still tight. Affected by the decline of mixed xylene market, the market for ortho benzene is lower. Affected by this, the price trend of phthalic anhydride is downward.

Demand side: plasticizer market shocks and demand is sluggish

The price trend of the downstream DOP market of phthalic anhydride fluctuates. At present, the domestic DOP price is 10100 yuan/ton, and the domestic DOP enterprises start construction at a low level of about 50%. For phthalic anhydride, it is mainly purchased on demand, and the mainstream DOP price is 10000-1200 yuan/ton. Poor downstream demand is a negative impact of the phthalic anhydride market, and the phthalic anhydride market continues to decline.

In the future, the price of o-xylene is weak in the short term, the downstream plasticizer industry is sluggish, and the supply of phthalic anhydride has increased, adding negative factors. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will still fall in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market on November 14 was 12366 yuan/ton, and the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market on November 21 was 12333 yuan/ton. The domestic caprolactam price fell 0.27% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Caprolactam market prices fell slightly this week. The price of raw material pure benzene rebounded after falling, and the cost support of caprolactam was strengthened. This week, caprolactam units of some enterprises recovered and market supply increased. The downstream PA enterprises started steadily, and their demand for caprolactam was stable, so they bought as needed.

Raw material pure benzene market, this week, the price of pure benzene rose after falling. Due to the overall poor profitability of downstream products, the market trend continues to be weak, and the demand for pure benzene is weak. In the second half of the week, the crude oil fell continuously. The market atmosphere was depressed by bad news, and the price fell back. This week, the inventory of pure benzene at East China port dropped to 87300 tons, and the inventory was consumed slightly.

3、 Future market forecast

Caprolactam analysts from the business community believed that the recent raw material pure benzene market rebounded after falling, and the cost side support was strengthened. The market supply of caprolactam increased, and the downstream demand continued to be sluggish. The transaction was average. It is expected that the caprolactam market will be dominated by weak and stable operation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the isopropyl alcohol market fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic isopropyl alcohol was 6990 yuan/ton, and this Friday, the average price was 6920 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 1% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The isopropanol market fell this week. The price of raw material acetone is tepid, and the price of propylene is lowered. Downstream buying enthusiasm is not high, cautious operation. Up to now, most of the isopropanol market quotations in Shandong are around 6800-7000 yuan/ton; Most of the quotations in Jiangsu and Zhejiang isopropanol markets are about 7000-7100 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the price of acetone was stable this week. Up to now, acetone has been quoted at 5800-6100 yuan/ton. The market is more wait-and-see, and the transaction is cautious.

In terms of propylene, as of this Friday, the mainstream quotation of propylene market was 7200-7250 yuan/ton. Due to the large increase last week, the downstream appeared to wait and see, and the demand was restrained. In order to stabilize the flow of goods, the refinery lowered the price and gave up the increase. The current long short game in the propylene market is affected by the sharp drop of crude oil. Under the leadership of bad news, propylene prices are expected to continue to decline in a narrow range next week.

3、 Future market forecast

Isopropyl alcohol analysts from Chemical Branch of Business Cooperative believed that the price of raw material acetone was tepid and the price of propylene fell. The market price of isopropanol was lowered. At present, the market is light and the transaction is cautious. It is expected that the isopropanol market will operate in a narrow range in the short term. Pay attention to the subsequent raw material market trend.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of November 17, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 9700.00 yuan/ton, 0.26% higher than the price on Monday, and 1.39% higher than the price on November 1.

The propylene oxide market rose slightly this week. From the perspective of cost, the market price of raw propylene has fallen recently, and the cost support is insufficient. From the perspective of supply and demand: some units have fluctuated in the near future, the supply has shrunk for a short time, the factory shipments have been smooth, and the prices are not subject to pressure. The downstream follow up on demand, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is getting stronger. On the 17th, the mainstream quotation of the propylene oxide market in Shandong was around 9150-9300 yuan/ton.

On November 16, the reference price of upstream propylene was 7236.60, up 2.84% compared with November 1 (7036.60).

The propylene oxide analysts of the business community believe that the current cost support is average, and the supply side is not under pressure at present. However, under the expectation of supply increase, the downstream is mainly wait-and-see, and the market is cautious. It is expected that the propylene oxide market will be weak in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

The price of domestic fluorite rose slightly. As of the 14th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3200 yuan/ton, up 0.79% from 3175 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Since April, the price of fluorite has risen unilaterally. At present, the price remains at a high level.

Supply side: the supply of low level raw materials is tight when the mine starts

The operating rate of domestic supply side remains low, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral survey is still difficult. Mining enterprises are faced with increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, resulting in insufficient starting of fluorite mines, shortage of domestic fluorite raw materials, limited starting of fluorite flotation, insufficient spot supply, serious epidemic in some regions, difficult transportation of fluorite, very tight supply of fluorite, and high fluorite prices.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid market rose, refrigerant price temporarily stabilized

The price trend of downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose. As of the 14th, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price was 11185.71 yuan/ton, up 6.97% from the end of October. The domestic hydrofluoric acid market trend rose. In some northern regions, the epidemic situation was repeated, some devices were stopped, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid was reduced. The rising price of the hydrofluoric acid market formed a positive support for the upstream fluorite market, and the fluorite market price remained high.

The market of downstream refrigerant products of the terminal is fair, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the demand for R22 market applications is guaranteed. The market quotation of R22 is between 18000-20000 yuan/ton. The domestic R134a price has not changed much, the trichloroethylene price remains unchanged, the cost support is still in place, and the R134a trading focus remains stable. At present, the R134a market quotation is in the range of 25000-27000 yuan/ton. Previously, downstream refrigerant enterprises were all trading at a loss in order to compete for HFC production quota. With the implementation of three generation refrigerant quota, the history of quota competition in the refrigerant industry is coming to an end, which also provides a basis for the price increase of the industrial chain.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry in the downstream, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, has been continuously developed in emerging fields. It is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite cathode, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand of new energy, semiconductor and other fields driving, the outlook of the fluorochemical industry chain has been supported in the long run.

Future market forecast: North fluorite enterprises are about to enter a seasonal shutdown period. In addition to the recent shortage of raw material fluorite ore supply, the refrigerant industry began to stock up in the fourth quarter. The new energy, semiconductor and new material industries developed rapidly, supporting the demand for fluorite for a long time. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business community, believes that the price of fluorite market is easy to rise but difficult to fall.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price index of the domestic rare earth market fell slightly, and the domestic rare earth market was weak and hard to change. On November 14, the rare earth index was 628 points, down 2.90% from the beginning of the month, down 37.64% from the peak of 1007 points (2022-02-24) in the cycle, and up 131.73% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

The prices of domestic metal praseodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide have declined to varying degrees. As of the 15th, the price of praseodymium and neodymium metal was 785000 yuan/ton, down 0.63% from the beginning of the month; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 642500 yuan/ton, 0.39% lower than that at the beginning of the month; The price of neodymium oxide was 715,000 yuan/ton, down 2.72% from the beginning of the month; The price of neodymium metal was 905000 yuan/ton, 0.55% lower than that at the beginning of the month; The price of praseodymium metal was 905000 yuan/ton, 4.23% lower than that at the beginning of the month; The price of praseodymium oxide was 665,000 yuan/ton, 8.28% lower than the price at the beginning of the month.

The circulation of light rare earths in China has decreased, the inventory of enterprises is overstocked, and the downstream inquiry list is cold. The procurement is poor, and the market situation of light rare earths is weak. The supply of light rare earths is mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia. Due to the limited transportation in Baotou and other regions, the manufacturer’s shipment is limited, and the production of enterprises is relatively normal, but the transportation is relatively difficult, and the spot supply has decreased.

Recently, the inventory of downstream magnetic material merchants still exists, and some manufacturers mainly digest the inventory. The purchasing mood is not good, resulting in the scarcity of orders, the difficulty of dealers in shipping, and the decline of rare earth market.

According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of automobiles in China will reach 2.599 million and 2.505 million respectively in October 2022, up 11.1% and 6.9% year on year. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 762000 and 714000 respectively, with year-on-year growth of 87.6% and 81.7%, and the market share reached 28.5%. The production and sales of automobiles rose, the demand in the new energy field was still supported, and the decline in the domestic rare earth market was limited.

The new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioners in the downstream of rare earths are in sustainable development. In the short term, the epidemic situation in some regions is repeated, the downstream procurement is limited, and the orders of magnetic material manufacturers are poor. The downstream businesses mainly digest the inventory. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business community, expects that the rare earth market is weak and difficult to change. In the long run, the demand for rare earths is still guaranteed, and there is no lack of the possibility of recovery.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market fell from 6833.33 yuan/ton at the weekend to 6500.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 4.88%. On November 13, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 32.99, unchanged from yesterday, 68.75% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and 9.53% higher than the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers fell slightly this week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market of isobutyraldehyde upstream raw material market rose slightly this week, with the price rising from 7000.60 yuan/ton at the weekend to 7330.60 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 4.71%. The upstream raw material market price rose slightly, and the cost support increased. Affected by the supply and demand, it had a positive impact on the isobutyraldehyde price. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol was adjusted at a low level, with the price of 9666.67 yuan/ton. The market of neopentyl glycol was consolidated at a low level, and the downstream demand was general, which had a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future market forecast

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in the middle and late November may fall slightly. The upstream propylene market rose slightly, with good cost support. However, the market of neopentyl glycol in the downstream market was consolidated at a low level, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement was general. The isobutyraldehyde analysts from the business community believe that the short-term isobutyraldehyde market may be subject to slight shock and decline under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, since November 6, the hydrogen peroxide market has warmed up and the price has risen. On November 6, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 823 yuan/ton. On November 11, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 846 yuan/ton, up 2.83%.

Increase in terminal demand Hydrogen peroxide market rose in a volatile manner

Since November 6, the demand for hydrogen peroxide terminals has improved, the number of orders has increased, and the market has improved. The prices of some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have risen. The hydrogen peroxide market in Anhui is relatively stable, with the mainstream quotation of 950 yuan/ton. The overall domestic hydrogen peroxide market has improved from the beginning of the month.

Li Bing, an hydrogen peroxide analyst from the business community, believes that the terminal demand will recover and the hydrogen peroxide market will rise in the future.

According to the data of the bulk commodity list of the business community, the formaldehyde market in Shandong was consolidated this week. The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1383.33 yuan/ton. The current price fell 3.04% month on month and 16.16% year on year.

formaldehyde

This week, the formaldehyde market price in Shandong was stable. From the above figure, we can see that the recent fluctuation of formaldehyde market is not large, and this week it continues to be weak and consolidated. As of November 9, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1350-1400 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range, with average cost support. Due to the impact of public security incidents, logistics and transportation were not smooth, and the formaldehyde market was rarely traded. Recently, the situation has improved slightly, but the market has not improved significantly.

Upstream methanol: the market in East China rebounded at a low level, and the transaction was fair. Futures stopped falling and rebounded, production facilities of major enterprises in some regions stopped, supply decreased, and market buying improved. The logistics in some regions is limited but the demand is weak, and the downstream receiving price is weak.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has slightly retreated, giving formaldehyde a certain cost support. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the Chemical Branch of the Business Cooperative predicted that the formaldehyde price in Shandong would increase mainly due to shocks in the near future.